Prisco gives us an A

[HoosierCat]

Yes, the fans may be right sometimes where the coaches and GMs are wrong. But I'd call it the exception, not the rule.

There seem to be a good number of exceptions, tho...

http://espn.go.com/nfl/columns/pasquarelli_len/1547665.html

Given the track record of Baltimore Ravens general manager Ozzie Newsome, it seems no longer a matter of whether he will unearth a solid contributor among the undrafted free agents signed by the club, but rather just how many he will find among the post-draft rubble.

Five players who originally entered the NFL as undrafted free agents each started six or more games for the Ravens in 2002. Forty percent of the starting offensive line was comprised of undrafted free agents, including center Mike Flynn, a starter at guard in the team's Super Bowl XXXV victory of 2000. Two players originally signed as undrafted collegians split the 16 starts at the free safety position.

And none of that accounts for tailback Priest Holmes, the player many feel is now the best all-around tailback in the league, who escaped to Kansas City in the spring of 2001 as an unrestricted free agent, but who was signed undrafted by the Ravens in 1997.

Wow! Priest Holmes was an undrafted free agent. How did all the NFL coaches, GMs, scouts and personnel experts miss that? (There's more later in the piece...Rod Smith...Kurt Warner...John Randle.)

http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20...1s22bechta.html

Of the 53 players on the Chargers roster at the end of last season, 15 entered the NFL as undrafted free agents, including Pro Bowl tight end Antonio Gates.

Very good story on how things work as the draft runs down, BTW...

http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/8416158

I can't think of a better example of an undrafted rookie free agent from last year than Randall Gay of the Patriots. Gay started 10 games for the Patriots, including Super Bowl XXXIX.

When I was with the Cowboys, we did extremely well with undrafted free agents. Two of our best defensive backs of all time, Cliff Harris and Cornell Green, were both undrafred free agents. In fact, Green never played college football; he was a basketball player at Utah State. Harris came from a small school (Ouachita Baptist) and went on to become a six-time Pro Bowl performer and a member of the NFL's Team of the 1970s. Another player, Drew Pearson, led the league in receiving two separate years. .

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/3549996

Fox's all-time undrafted team.

[jamesbrooks21]

As for Chris being able to do as well as Marvin...I think you've really gone off the deep end here.

That's what I was thinking. Are you kidding me? Way off the deep end on that one.

Yes, the fans may be right sometimes where the coaches and GMs are wrong.  But I'd call it the exception, not the rule.

Exactly

[DontPushMe]

Anywho...insult or no, I happened to agree with his main idea.  I found it pretty amusing as well...a chorus of people complaining about the Bengals not taking Shazor, etc...players that ended up not being drafted at all.

Did it ever occur to you (or DPM) that maybe that chorus of people are right?

I hate to have to point this out again, but just because a player is a high draft pick doesn't mean they will be successful. Or that they won't be if they're taken late on day 2 (ask Tom Brady). I would think Bengals fans would be painfully aware of this truth.

Take the position being discussed, RB. Eric Ball turned out pretty well, huh? How about Ki-Jana? Rudi Johnson and Curtis Keaton were both 4th round picks. If we're going to hold Jim Anderson up as an RB-drafting-guru for Rudi, what about Keaton?

If NFL coaches and GMs are so much smarter than Mel Kiper or chrish or Great Blue North or whoever, how come David Terrell, Koren Robinson, Rod Gardner, Santana Moss, Freddie Mitchell, Reggie Wayne and Quincy friggin' Carter all were drafted before Chad Johnson?

Shazor didn't get drafted? How many times did teams pass on Brady? Every team passed on Dillon and Chad at least once. TJ just got a big contract, how many times did everyone pass on him?

Every year, there are guys who are drafted who are out of football by September, and there are guys who went undrafted who end up playing starting roles. What does that say about the evaluation capabilities of NFL teams vs. your average draftnik? Every year there will be a bunch of highly-touted prospects who will go on day 1, get big contracts, and proceed to suck. How come they get drafted? According to theories being propounded here, NFL teams have vastly superior knowledge. Shouldn't they be able to weed out these fakers who are fooling the internet mock drafters?

Bottom line: I have no doubt someone like chrish could do as good a job as Mike & Marvin. And I have history to back me up.

OK, and how many fan sites had Chad Johnson as the #1 ranked receiver in 2001? How many fans were running around saying Chad would be the best receiver in the draft that year? What about tom brady? I dont remember people saying "oh my god he fell to the 6th round. He is first round talent." And i certainly dont remember fan created websites ranking him as the #1 QB in the draft. Same for Priest Holmes, Terell Davis, and all of the other players who went late and turned out to be good. If it wasnt possible for 2nd day players to become NFL starters, there wouldnt be a 2nd day of the draft. You can go through and find them, but year by year there are maybe 2-3 players in each round 5-7 that really make a difference in their career. The rest become backups or make their way out of the league.

Also, every year there are a few players that fan sites overvalue, and most of the time they go on to amount to nothing in the NFL. Anttaj Hawthorne and Ernest Shazor i expect to be no different.

As for Chris being able to outdraft Mike Brown and Marvin Lewis.... wow....

[HoosierCat]

OK, and how many fan sites had Chad Johnson as the #1 ranked receiver in 2001?

Who cares??? The point isn't that fans miss the target! The point is that the NFL coaches and GM also miss the target...quite freaking often! They make at least as many screw-ups as the "amateurs."

Perfect example: Pro Football Weekly had its list of the top 150 players. About 10 went undrafted. That means that the amateurs, talking heads, whatever, agreed on more than 90% of the players in question. Some of those players will flop. Why, then, did NFL coaches and GMs pick them? Don't they have special, inside, in-depth knowledge that sets them apart from lesser mortals? Doesn't look like it, does it?

As for Chris being able to outdraft Mike Brown and Marvin Lewis.... wow....

Really? You're that impressed with the last two years? 2003 gave us Eric "Tommy John surgery" Steinbach, hopefully he's back to full this year. Kelly Washington? Lots of people seem to think he's about done in Cincy. Dennis Weathersby? Gone. Jeremi Johnson? Almost ate his way off the team last offseason. Khalid Abdullah? 1 good year on special teams so far. Langston Moore? OK, he and Carson are the two clear winners. Oh, and Elton Patterson...back again for another tour in camp.

Last year? Well, Chris Perry is still an unknown. Of the remaining first day picks, Madieu and Landon worked out, Miller and Ratliff, who knows? Askew, Andrews, Brooks...ditto. Geathers shows promise, not sure where we'll get him on the field. Mann? Gone.

Bottom line: out of 20 total picks, we have two clear winners, four probables, two gone, and the rest are question marks for various reasons ranging from injury to committment questions.

At this point, I'd argue that after Carson Palmer, our most valuable "draft pick" has been our undrafted free agent punter.

[BengalszoneBilly]

Billy...if ever given the chance, do not sleep with Pam Anderson...that Hep C is some straight funk...3 condoms maybe. Saw her at LAX once in 2000. Does not look so good in real life either. Probably 5000+ women in LA/OC who smoke her in hottness, most of which are disease free!

Thanks for the advice Kingwilly! I'm sure that I'll find it to be very handy since big chested women TV stars like her are hitting on me almost DAILY!!

If I only had a dime for everytime time Pamela Anderson has ditched Tommy Lee or Kid Rock, and ended up knockin' on my front door in the middle of the night looking to get a little "freaky" with me...

BTW, Funny you mention LAX. I used to work there years ago. Not once did I see anyone famous. I saw every other type of person, I'll tell you that!

Ho-ly S**T! There are some flat out weird people in this world!

[Ickeyshuffler]

All this seems kinda silly - who cares how many late rounders do good, how many fail, who picks the best, etc? It's more often than not a crapshoot anyway, and that has to do with coaching, opportunities (i.e. the colts could draft an awesome 7th round wideout right now but when will we see if he pans out?), and the often completely chance-based injury factor. I kinda have to agree with DPM on the fact that who cares about all the later rounders that coaches/gms missed in past years? Most weren't high on fansite or draft analyst mocks either...you never really know. And as for many of Marvin's draft picks, it is WAY, WAY, WAY to early to make any concrete evaluation. Andrews, Geathers, Madeiu, LJohnson, Askew, KWash, Ratliff, etc. could all end up being perennial pro-bowlers (and Madieu has already shown this promise early)...its a bit of a crapshoot, augmented by what happens in their lives during these next few years, how their bodies hold, and how they fit into the team and respond to coaching (though yes, you can KIND OF measure a few of these things pre-draft). Shoot, Perry might become LT this year. Lets just kick back, wait, and see...

I, too, would have loved to see antajj and shazor in stripes -- still would (party because I think antajj fell due to the drug thing and as far as i'm concerned that is rediculous and shameful. I would have picked him out of indignation alone that his personal life should make that big a difference in his future employment. I hope he becomes a pro-bowler for the raiders, even though i hate the raiders). Oh well, let's just hope the guys we did get late in the draft make us forget all about butler, brimmer, shazor, browner, etc. in a few years.

[HairOnFire]

OK, and how many fan sites had Chad Johnson as the #1 ranked receiver in 2001?

Who cares??? The point isn't that fans miss the target! The point is that the NFL coaches and GM also miss the target...quite freaking often! They make at least as many screw-ups as the "amateurs."

Perfect example: Pro Football Weekly had its list of the top 150 players. About 10 went undrafted. That means that the amateurs, talking heads, whatever, agreed on more than 90% of the players in question. Some of those players will flop. Why, then, did NFL coaches and GMs pick them? Don't they have special, inside, in-depth knowledge that sets them apart from lesser mortals? Doesn't look like it, does it?

As for Chris being able to outdraft Mike Brown and Marvin Lewis.... wow....

Really? You're that impressed with the last two years? 2003 gave us Eric "Tommy John surgery" Steinbach, hopefully he's back to full this year. Kelly Washington? Lots of people seem to think he's about done in Cincy. Dennis Weathersby? Gone. Jeremi Johnson? Almost ate his way off the team last offseason. Khalid Abdullah? 1 good year on special teams so far. Langston Moore? OK, he and Carson are the two clear winners. Oh, and Elton Patterson...back again for another tour in camp.

Last year? Well, Chris Perry is still an unknown. Of the remaining first day picks, Madieu and Landon worked out, Miller and Ratliff, who knows? Askew, Andrews, Brooks...ditto. Geathers shows promise, not sure where we'll get him on the field. Mann? Gone.

Bottom line: out of 20 total picks, we have two clear winners, four probables, two gone, and the rest are question marks for various reasons ranging from injury to committment questions.

At this point, I'd argue that after Carson Palmer, our most valuable "draft pick" has been our undrafted free agent punter.

My take.

Palmer - Not just the first overall pick...the right pick. The Bengals couldn't afford to blow this one and they didn't. Best, for once they took the proper steps to develope the talent they drafted instead of rushing it onto the field just to please fans and sell tickets. A+++

Steinbach - Breathtaking movement skills when healthy. Awesome rookie year, frustrating sophmore effort due to injury. B

Washington - He's flashed the skills that got him drafted but playing behind THREE quality starting wideouts have limited his impact. Think he's gone this year? Think again. B

Weathersby - What once seemed like a bargain turned out to be a repeated episode of tragic drama. So who among us thinks the Bengals should have seen that coming? (My hand isn't raised.) N/A

J. Johnson - Very good rookie season followed by concerns about conditioning and a reduced role in the offense. Still, even on his fattest day he offers more of a playmaking threat than Lorenzo Neal ever did. I'm not betting against him rebounding this season. C+

Abdullah - Played very well on special teams in his rookie season...as planned. Injured the following season, thereby stunting his ability to assume a backup role. Maybe they should shoot him, ehh? N/A

Moore - Drafted to provide backup depth, developed into a fine spot starter and wave player. Some will argue he's even better than that. Regardless, we're talking about outstanding return for a 6th round pick. B+

Koostra - Drafted to provide much needed depth and by all accounts he's providing that. B

Patterson - Not sure what anyone expects out of a 7th round pick, but the Jags thought enough of him to take a look and the Bengals thought enough of him to want him back. C

Overall draft grade? I'd give this one an A just for the Palmer pick, but there's plenty more. Next...

Perry - I admit that I hated the pick but for the most part I ding the guy over and over again because it's fun to shove this guy up DPM's boy butt. (Nice visual, huh?) That said, I know what we've got if he can ever stay upright and when I'm not enjoying guilty pleasures I agree with others that his bust status is premature. Still, things are what they are and any grade other than a failing mark is just homer-talk. D

Ratliff - I've repeatedly stated that I liked his play better than the more popular Madieu Williams. Zero complaints from this chair. A

Williams - Thrown into the fire early he got burned repeatedly. However, he always competed and even managed to draw blood from time to time when picked on. Then he did the rarest thing ever seen in Bengala. He developed. Could be special if given a defined role. B+

Miller - Drafted to provide backup depth he was forced to play early and suffered for it. That sucks. However, if returned to the status of role playing backup his presence might well be a future positive. C-

L. Johnson - Better than advertised, and more to the point...better than his draft position would impy. B+

Askew - They said he was talented but raw and his lack of playing time backs that up. Not sure what we've got here....and neither do the doubters. N/A

Geathers - If this 4th rounder comes close to being the type of player he flashed then nobody has a valid reason to second guess any 2nd day pick the Bengals ever make. B

Andrews - Project XXXL. Mere presence on the roster frightens children and small dogs. Expected delivery date no earlier than next year. N/A

Mann - I thought he was drafted to return kicks...a role he didn't win before being signed off the practice squad. Try to guess how upset that makes me? D

Brooks - I loved the pick when it was made. In fact, I was pimping the guy as the previous pick was made. Injured, he can't be evaluated. Then again, he didn't cost as much as Chris Perry so that has to count for something. C

Bramlet - Held the clipboard and learned...then went to NFLE where he's tearing it up. What round was this pick made? (7th) Sheesh, give it an A.

Overall grade - The Perry pick still feels wrong in just about every way a pick can feel wrong, but there was plenty of return from rounds 2 thru 7 to bump the grade to a solid B.

Add 'em up and you've got 20 picks...producing 7 starters. Backup depth is everywhere you look and only one player (Mann) is on another teams roster. More remarkable, I think only one player (Weathersby) is out of football.

[HairOnFire]

BTW, Funny you mention LAX. I used to work there years ago. Not once did I see anyone famous. I saw every other type of person, I'll tell you that!

You're kidding. I spend very little time there and I've seen one of the brothers from Oasis, the guy who played Dr.Chandra from 2010, Titanic director James Cameron, actress Suzi Amis, and my personal favorite....musician Joe Bonamassa, a guy who could teach guitar lessons to anyone you could name.

And I can confirm the Pam Anderson report. I've stood next to her in a Malibu gift shop and the view was much better from across the room. My biggest complaint? It looks like she puts on makeup with a shovel. Nice boobs though.

[BengalszoneBilly]

The point isn't that fans miss the target! The point is that the NFL coaches and GM also miss the target...quite freaking often! They make at least as many screw-ups as the "amateurs."

Sometimes they screw up so bad, it makes the "amatures" look to be the experts!

Then there are times that they do quite well. It's a fringe form of gambling!

All this seems kinda silly - who cares how many late rounders do good, how many fail, who picks the best, etc? It's more often than not a crapshoot anyway.

If by "It's more often than not a crapshoot," you mean 100% of the time, I'll agree here! There is not now, nor will there ever be anyone who can say with absolute certainty which players in the draft will make it, and which will wash out quicker than you can blink an eye! It's impossible to know these things!

I don't care how good they were in college! Sometimes none of that carries over to the NFL. Conversely there have been a good number of college players who no one thought too much of, and they go on and end up being stars in the NFL!!

Go figure!

BTW, Funny you mention LAX. I used to work there years ago. Not once did I see anyone famous. I saw every other type of person, I'll tell you that!

You're kidding. I spend very little time there and I've seen one of the brothers from Oasis, the guy who played Dr.Chandra from 2010, Titanic director James Cameron, actress Suzi Amis, and my personal favorite....musician Joe Bonamassa, a guy who could teach guitar lessons to anyone you could name.

And I can confirm the Pam Anderson report. I've stood next to her in a Malibu gift shop and the view was much better from across the room. My biggest complaint? It looks like she puts on makeup with a shovel. Nice boobs though.

I forgot I did see one famous person at LAX, Former President Gerald Ford, (No, he didn't fall down any stairs) who exited the plane and went dirtectly to a waiting limo with a full police security escort parked outside the jetway. Being a airline mechanic, who 95% of the time is working outside on the ramp, I guess I just didn't have as many opportunities other than that.

What's weird is doing the some job in Phoenix, I saw alot of them! The watermelon smashing comedian "Gallagher," Ted Danson, two different "Stevie's," both Nicks and Wonder, Alex Baldwin and his hottie wife Kim Basinger, Alice Cooper, porn stars Ron Jeremy with Christy Canyons (YOWZA! A future avatar possibility if I find her CLOTHED! ***EDIT-Which amazingly enough I did!***), the band Van Halen (the Alex, Eddie, Sammy, and Micheal version) who were pounding down beers like no tomorrow in my airlines VIP waiting area, Willie Nelson with Waylon Jennings, also having some beers there (Same VIP room, different occasion).

Edited April 29, 2005 by billybroome

[HoosierCat]

Add 'em up and you've got 20 picks...producing 7 starters. Backup depth is everywhere you look and only one player (Mann) is on another teams roster. More remarkable, I think only one player (Weathersby) is out of football.

Oh, I think they've been two decent drafts; some hits, some misses, some we'll-sees. All I'm saying is that I don't see any reason to give teams' staffs any broad presumption of greater knowledge; on the whole, they don't appear to do any better, or worse, than Mel or ourlads or whoever. If they were, the terms "bust" and "steal" woudn't exist.

Ickeyshuffler: yup, it's a crap shoot. Always has been, always will be.

[Jet23]

Oh paaaaalease. You can NOT really believe that! NFL teams have a network of scouts and they actually talk to these kids, their coaches, their former teammates... Dude sits in his Mom's basement watching videos of sweaty men running around doing squat thrusts. Just because he tell you how great he is, doesn't make it so.

[HairOnFire]

Oh, I think they've been two decent drafts; some hits, some misses, some we'll-sees. All I'm saying is that I don't see any reason to give teams' staffs any broad presumption of greater knowledge; on the whole, they don't appear to do any better, or worse, than Mel or ourlads or whoever.

I'm not buying it.

Guys like Kiper have had their moments and I'm far less critical of him than most due to the information he provides in his individual player reviews. But speculation about pure value is another matter altogether. IMHO he's learned to back off his own player rankings and is more flexible when discussing where players fit into the draft due to concerns over where these guys don't fit.

But it's rather telling when after the first 20 or 30 selections Kiper's list of BPA include guys you hang around for round after round after round after round. Were Kiper actually calling the shots for a team you'd have to assume that these are the players he'd take when his pick was up, right?

Examples? In this last draft Kipers rankings of player value would likely have meant he'd have picked Hawthorne as early as the late 1st round and Shazor and Wilkerson early on the 2nd day. And presumably, after hearing his post draft arguments so would our own Chrish. Ignoring for a moment that none of these guys have proven they can or can't play in the NFL...the draft proved their real value to all of the teams, and it turned out to be far different than previously claimed by Kiper or TJ or Chrish....or any other source you prefer.

Oh, and please add myself to their ranks. We both know I've got my own history of draft day victories to crow about, but I can't ignore the fact that I would have bet real money that worst case scenario a guy like Brandon Browner would have been drafted by a team willing to move him to FS.

Didn't happen.

[HoosierCat]

Oh paaaaalease. You can NOT really believe that! NFL teams have a network of scouts and they actually talk to these kids' date=' their coaches, their former teammates... [/quote']

Yeah, they do all that. And then what happens? Well, let's just look back at 2001 as an example.

http://www.drafthistory.com/years/2001.html

Gerard Warren at 3? Heck, even Leonard Davis at 2 is a question mark.

I don't agree, but a lot of people think Justin Smith (4) is a bust.

Names for the "where are they now"? file: David Terrell (8). Jamal Reynolds (10). Kenyatta Walker (14).

Santana Moss is on his second team. And name me one 1st round wideout who should have gone ahead of Chad. Jamar Fletcher...he still in football? I seem to remember him getting cut last year.

That's what, a fourth of the first round right there in the "bust" and "underachiever" categories? If NFL staffs are so much more knowledgeable than your average 'net draftnik...how did all these guys get drafted when they did? How did 8 other receivers go before Chad? How did Rudi last to the 4th?

Yes, NFL staffs have the chance to chat up coaches and friends and family...but it sure doesn't appear to make their decisions much better.

[HoosierCat]

But it's rather telling when after the first 20 or 30 selections Kiper's list of BPA include guys you hang around for round after round after round after round. Were Kiper actually calling the shots for a team you'd have to assume that these are the players he'd take when his pick was up, right?

It's equally telling that most of those highly ranked players do eventually get chosen. There are other considerations than BPA. Again, take pro football weekly's top 150 prospects. Of them, 8 didn't get drafted. (see http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/NFLDr.../Remainders.htm ). If outside observers know so much less than NFL team staffs, why so much agreement? That's almost 95% agreement. And there was 100% agreement on the top 109 players, which is enough to get you through the whole first day.

[HairOnFire]

It's equally telling that most of those highly ranked players do eventually get chosen. There are other considerations than BPA. Again, take pro football weekly's top 150 prospects. Of them, 8 didn't get drafted.

I'm not sure that's a point worth making.

The same player a team wouldn't bother looking at in the early rounds might look pretty attractive when he's still on the big board gathering dust in the 6th or 7th rounds. Any and all risk have been reduced to acceptable levels. So just because most players can be identified as being draftable ignores the important issue of where they were drafted. GM's get fired for routinely overrating a players talent level even if that player can play in the NFL. And many players get cut because their inflated draft grade resulted in a level of pay that can't be defended regardless of the players ability to stick on a roster. There has to be a match of production and value.

Having some idea about where other teams value the players you want to draft is a pretty important issue on draft day. In the draft just completed it determined whether the Bengals accepted a trade offer for their 1st round pick. It determined which round of the draft the Bengals were willing to take a chance on Henry. It determined whether or not they were going to use a draft pick on Wilkerson, a player they obviously wanted but not at any price. It determines not only which players a team drafts, but which players they were going to miss out on. And on that score, teams passed on Anttaj Hawthorne 174 times before one team determined that the risk was outweighed by the potential. So props to the Raiders if Hawthorne rewards them, but it's reasonable to assume that many teams had taken Hawthorne completely off their boards and wouldn't have drafted him under any circumstances. And that will still be an important consideration even if Hawthorne performs at a higher level than his draft position would imply.

[HoosierCat]

It's equally telling that most of those highly ranked players do eventually get chosen. There are other considerations than BPA. Again, take pro football weekly's top 150 prospects. Of them, 8 didn't get drafted.

I'm not sure that's a point worth making.

The same player a team wouldn't bother looking at in the early rounds might look pretty attractive when he's still on the big board gathering dust in the 6th or 7th rounds. Any and all risk have been reduced to acceptable levels. So just because most players can be identified as being draftable ignores the important issue of where they were drafted.

I would be willing to bet that the vast majority of players in last weekend's draft went about when they were "supposed" to according to outsiders like pro football weekly. Need and personal opinions are always going to play a role in teams' war room (was Pollack really the best player at 17, or was he the one Marvin had been in love with for a couple years now?)

And in any event, the kind of wide variation you imply rarely occurs. For every falling Shazor or Hawthorne, there are 20 other players who go around the time everyone -- NFL teams and amateur draftniks -- think they should. Everyone's draft board is going to be different, including the ones put together by each of the 32 teams doing the drafting. But there is no evidence that those board differ dramatically from ones produced outside NFL war rooms. In fact, the evidence suggests just the opposite.

And that shouldn't be too surprising, should it? 15 or 20 years ago, before the proliferation of cable and satellite TV channels that allow you to get every college game on the planet, and an internet that provides everything right down to combine performance results, NFL teams would have a had a huge advantage over an amateur. Now, you can see virtually everything they see, find every number on every player. Heck, if you're really dedicated -- and many draft sites on the web are -- you can even interview the players themselves. Heck, for potential draftees, that's all part of the marketing process now.

Given that capability, plus the broad agreement that's evident in the predictions when compared to the real draft, it seems clear to me that with sufficient time and dedication, anyone could draft as well as the average NFL team. It is not, after all, rocket science. Would they make some bad picks? Sure. But NFL teams do that as well, early and often.

[HairOnFire]

15 or 20 years ago, before the proliferation of cable and satellite TV channels that allow you to get every college game on the planet, and an internet that provides everything right down to combine performance results, NFL teams would have a had a huge advantage over an amateur. Now, you can see virtually everything they see, find every number on every player. Heck, if you're really dedicated -- and many draft sites on the web are -- you can even interview the players themselves.

Please, how many draftniks travel from college to college so that they can see pro days in person? How many of us can look at a stat page or workout numbers and determine whether the player plays faster than he times or is more of an athlete than a football playin' Jesse? And how many basement gurus hire private investigators to determine whether a player like Hawthorne was simply using pot or selling it?

Then factor in the right of any coach to determine for himself which character issues he's willing to work with and which ones he wants absolutely no part of. Then factor in the huge consideration of taking acceptable risks in exchange for potential, excluding players due to poor fit, lack of need due to the presence of comparable prospects already on the roster....

Add it all up and I think I'll repeat my opinion that propping up a list of 150 top players showing only 8 guys who went undrafted is a point not worth making. Just look at the safety net you're left with. You've got several rounds of buffer, ehh?

[HoosierCat]

Add it all up and I think I'll repeat my opinion that propping up a list of 150 top players showing only 8 guys who went undrafted is a point not worth making. Just look at the safety net you're left with. You've got several rounds of buffer, ehh?

Not really. 150 players gets you well into round five. But fine, let's say pfw ranked the top 224, which would get you through the whole draft, excluding comp picks. Let's further say that of those additional 74 players, pfw didn't get a single one right. So out of 224 they nailed 142.

That's still more than 63% agreement. And again, that's assuming they didn't get another player right. If they were even half as accurate over the last 74 as they were over the first 150 -- which would be getting about 46% right -- that would add another 34 players for a total of 176, which equals 79% agreement.

Again, I'll repeat the questions you've ignored: if NFL staffs have such a leg up on amateurs, why such high levels of agreement? And if NFL staffs are so much better at this than you, me, or the corner lamp-post, why are they so many high-round busts, underachievers, and successful low-round and undrafted players?

[kingwilly]

Joisey...toally agree.

Outside of actually attending combines or "Pro Days" to get current visual assessement of a prospect and having inside college contacts and connections) someone could draft as well as any NFL team, possibly even better. I get a sense that there is a bit of "too close to the forest" going on in many draft rooms of alot of NFL teams. What the amatuer draft-nik has is a wide angle view of the scene with fewer tendencies or patterns that some NFL teams have (see Detroit's Millen and his penchant for WR's or Denver this year with CB's).

Given a fraction of the resources (really all I would need is the time) and I know I or just about anyone else who posts regularly here could provide any NFL team with a draft that matches or exceeds any "Expert" and even the team itself, in terms of addressing the teams need, developing potential and avoiding busts.

[bengalboomer7]

I don't even have to read all of that to know you guys are full of it. No disrepect to Chris, but if you were that good, I wouldn't be talking to you on this website. I thought you were a more sensible person than that too, Joisey. Sure it doesn't take a genius to figure out a mock draft, but I'll take my chances with guys that have been in football all of their lives and get PAID to do that stuff for a living.

I think that I could take on almost anybody with my football and general sports knowledge but I won't be drawing a paycheck from any sports franchises anytime soon.(Although, my resume has been sent to many different organizations )

Until i hear a good story about wrapping Rudi's ankle or pumping up Chad's helmet for him I don't think anyone hear could be working for a franchise and I think there are some knowledgable(very knowledgable) people on this site

Please don't take offense to these comments, I believe I'm just speaking the truth.

[HoosierCat]

Joisey...toally agree.

Outside of actually attending combines or "Pro Days" to get current visual assessement of a prospect and having inside college contacts and connections) someone could draft as well as any NFL team, possibly even better. I get a sense that there is a bit of "too close to the forest" going on in many draft rooms of alot of NFL teams.

Thanks.

I don't know if I'd go so far as to say amateurs could do the draft better, but (as you said) given the time to do the tape breakdowns and pull together all the combine numbers, etc. I don't see any reason to believe they couldn't do about as good.

You may be right about the "forest" thing, tho personally I think the biggest reasons teams -- and amateurs -- trip themselves up is too much emphasis on the offseason numbers. I think it was Brian Billick who had a comment earlier this year to the effect that, "we know we shouldn't get excited about what guys do in shorts in February, but every year, we do."

[HoosierCat]

I don't even have to read all of that to know you guys are full of it.

No offense taken, boomer. But please don't take offense that, after reading your first sentence, I didn't take the time to read the rest of your post because you were clearly full of it.

[HairOnFire]

Not really. 150 players gets you well into round five.

Joisey, that's two and a half rounds of buffer! And I'm talking big 'ol fat rounds stuffed with compensation picks. How many total draft picks were there? Wasn't it something like 280 and change? So how impressive is it for PFW boast about only 8 of the top 150 prospects not being drafted when we're talking about almost 300 picks? Not very, right? Making matters worse is the PFW boast doesn't take into account where a prospect is drafted...only that he was at some point.(Worthless.)

[HoosierCat]

Like I said before, even if they expanded their list and didn't get any more right -- highly unlikely -- a majority of theirs and "real NFL team" rankings still agree.

As to where they were drafted, here ya go. According to the huddle report's draft roundup, of pfw's top 100, 81 actually went in the first 100 picks, an obvious 81% accuracy rate. http://www.thehuddlereport.com/top100/index.shtml provides a look at at least top 100 accuracy for them and other major draft guru sites. And that gets you through the three most important rounds in the draft, right? The three rounds in which fidning a difference maker, or at least a starter, is vital, right? If NFL teams are so much better at this than anyone else...why are they and anyone else in so much agreement?

[bengalboomer7]

Then why didn't I see you at any of the post draft news conferences, Joisey? Your personal opinion on a fan based website and making desicions with your butt on the line(like coaches and GM's) is two different things. You ever heard of the term "arm chair QB" Don't get mad just cause I have a different opinion.