Reasonable baseline for Dalton vs. the Steelers first time out

[membengal]

So I got to wondering what Dalton's day might look like against Pittsburgh. And figured the best way to establish a baseline was with reference to Palmer's first few outings. And this is what it was:

Carson Palmer’s 1st start against the Steelers after two training camps and one year of sitting and watching was in 2004:

20 of 37 (54.1%) for 164 yards 1 TD 2 INTs QB rating of 62.1 (Bengals lost)

Carson Palmer’s 2nd start against the Steelers:

13 of 25 (52%) for 165 yards 2 TDs 1 INT QB rating of 82.9 (Bengals lost)

Carson Palmer’s 3rd start against the Steelers (game 6 of 2005):

21 of 36 (58.3%) for 227 yards 0 TDs 2 INTs QB rating of 53.8 (Bengals lost)

Carson Palmer’s 4th start against the Steelers:

22 of 38 (57.9%) for 227 yards 3 TDs 0 INTs QB rating of 101.5 (Bengals won)

Palmer’s career record against the Steelers in 12 starts?

4-8

(I am not counting 2005 playoff loss)(CP missed both games against the Steelers in 2008)

All of which is to say, “fair” expectations for Andy Dalton in this game against the Steelers look to be a completion percentage around 53% for 165 yards with a 1 TD and 1 INT. That’s the baseline that Palmer showed in his first shots at the Steelers as a youngish starter in 2004.

By the way, rookie QBs against Lebeau are 1-11.

[volcom69]

Yea odds are not looking good for Dalton! One thing though i can say for Andy is that he dosnt seem to get rattled with tough defenses. However im not sure he has seen one like Pitt, so its hard to say what he will be like. I hope he comes out settled down otherwise he passes sail on him.

He needs the o-line this week more then anything, the o-line needs to keep the pressure off of Andy and give him time to find the open guy. Dont force the ball take the check down if he needs too will help him from not making the mistakes most rookies do againt Pitt.

Running game will also help, so hope they get the running game going, something tells me though they wont. However if they do it will help him out big time.

Im still not sure what to think of this game, all i know is they need to come out and smack the steelers in the mouth. Be more physical, and come off the ball hard and push them back!! They need to want it more, they also cant make stupid mistakes like all the penalties, or dropping balls, or turnovers.

[BengalszoneBilly]

So I got to wondering what Dalton's day might look like against Pittsburgh. And figured the best way to establish a baseline was with reference to Palmer's first few outings. And this is what it was:

Carson Palmer’s 1st start against the Steelers after two training camps and one year of sitting and watching was in 2004:

20 of 37 (54.1%) for 164 yards 1 TD 2 INTs QB rating of 62.1 (Bengals lost)

Carson Palmer’s 2nd start against the Steelers:

13 of 25 (52%) for 165 yards 2 TDs 1 INT QB rating of 82.9 (Bengals lost)

Carson Palmer’s 3rd start against the Steelers (game 6 of 2005):

21 of 36 (58.3%) for 227 yards 0 TDs 2 INTs QB rating of 53.8 (Bengals lost)

Carson Palmer’s 4th start against the Steelers:

22 of 38 (57.9%) for 227 yards 3 TDs 0 INTs QB rating of 101.5 (Bengals won)

Palmer’s career record against the Steelers in 12 starts?

4-8

(I am not counting 2005 playoff loss)(CP missed both games against the Steelers in 2008)

All of which is to say, “fair” expectations for Andy Dalton in this game against the Steelers look to be a completion percentage around 53% for 165 yards with a 1 TD and 1 INT. That’s the baseline that Palmer showed in his first shots at the Steelers as a youngish starter in 2004.

By the way, rookie QBs against Lebeau are 1-11.

Yea odds are not looking good for Dalton! One thing though i can say for Andy is that he dosnt seem to get rattled with tough defenses. However im not sure he has seen one like Pitt, so its hard to say what he will be like. I hope he comes out settled down otherwise he passes sail on him.

He needs the o-line this week more then anything, the o-line needs to keep the pressure off of Andy and give him time to find the open guy. Dont force the ball take the check down if he needs too will help him from not making the mistakes most rookies do againt Pitt.

Running game will also help, so hope they get the running game going, something tells me though they wont. However if they do it will help him out big time.

Im still not sure what to think of this game, all i know is they need to come out and smack the steelers in the mouth. Be more physical, and come off the ball hard and push them back!! They need to want it more, they also cant make stupid mistakes like all the penalties, or dropping balls, or turnovers.

My recommendation for the Bengals this week is to keep doing what your doing. Keep the game close. You've got the 2nd half to pull out the win.

Of course just blowing these guys out wouldn't really piss me off either.

[volcom69]

Billy if they blow the steelers out, it would be the best day EVER!!!!

I dont really think this team is put toghter for blowing teams out, but it would be freaking great.

[Sea Ray]

Nice work, Mem. That's very interesting. By all rational thoughts, Dalton wouldn't have a chance vs the Steelers but of course he shouldn't have gone 6-2 with three road wins either. Thus this game is another chance for him to set a new standard for rookie QBs. We'll see.

Now if he does look like a rookie on Sunday, all hope is not lost. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if he went to school and came out and shocked the Steelers at Heinz Field a few weeks later.

To further the thoughts on Dalton, he's benefitted from managements conscious attempts to give Palmer weapons. Dalton is enjoying the toys bought for Palmer and he has more than most.

[BengalszoneBilly]

I dont really think this team is put together for blowing teams out

I hear you vol, but who here actually thought the Bengals would actually being included in playoff discussions around the league at this point in this season?

Back to the point of blowing out teams, I concede that sort of win is unlikely, especially against the Steelers, but Cincinnati can win!

[derekshank]

What does Dalton need to do to get a win? No turnovers.

Last year the Bengals held the Steeler offense to 3 FGs... but Palmer threw two pick-6s (3 interceptions total). Cincinnati's defense is good, and they know how to prepare for Pittsburgh.

This Steeler defense is good... but it's not invincible. They struggle with the two-minute drill and are weak on 3rd down. If Dalton doesn't turn the ball over... he'll have a chance to win it in the 4th quarter.

Dalton is no ordinary rookie... so Pittsburgh's record against rookie QBs is meaningless. Their record against Dalton is 0-0.

[kingwilly]

Baltimore gave everyone a very nice template to beat Pittsburgh. Run it some, and stretch the field. Good thing AJ Green is a better wideout than all of the Ravens. Simpson will end up with single coverage quite a bit, given all the blitzing going on.

Also, Gresham and Lee could end up being the key. Just too man options and too many mismatches.

Bengals win.

Bengals - 30

Pitt - 23

Will come down to final possession. Tied with 1:30. Dalton drives 78 yards, then goes to Gresham, 16 yards for the win.

[BengalszoneBilly]

Dalton is no ordinary rookie.

That is becoming more apparent with every game.

[cincyhokie]

-- Broner (Broh-nuhr)n. : The excitement one gets after finding a new, fascinating, friend or someone so cool that admiration and respect is limitless.

e.g. "I dont' wanna sound gay or nothin', but I'll get an even bigger broner for Andy if he beats the Steelers!"

Stolen from urbandictionary.com. Sort of.

[membengal]

What does Dalton need to do to get a win? No turnovers.

Last year the Bengals held the Steeler offense to 3 FGs... but Palmer threw two pick-6s (3 interceptions total). Cincinnati's defense is good, and they know how to prepare for Pittsburgh.

This Steeler defense is good... but it's not invincible. They struggle with the two-minute drill and are weak on 3rd down. If Dalton doesn't turn the ball over... he'll have a chance to win it in the 4th quarter.

Dalton is no ordinary rookie... so Pittsburgh's record against rookie QBs is meaningless. Their record against Dalton is 0-0.

Fair enough, but the Steelers D gives a lot of vet qbs problems as well (Brady two weeks ago, for instance). My larger point in the above post was to drive a stake in the ground as reference point for what a typical outing against the Steelers for a young qb might look like. If Dalton has a day like Palmer did his first few times out, I wanted a reminder as to what that was. People tend to romanticize the past as time passes.

[BengalPimp]

So I got to wondering what Dalton's day might look like against Pittsburgh. And figured the best way to establish a baseline was with reference to Palmer's first few outings. And this is what it was:

Carson Palmer's 2nd start against the Steelers:

13 of 25 (52%) for 165 yards 2 TDs 1 INT QB rating of 82.9 (Bengals lost)

I'd say this might be the most likely. The Bengals D can overcome 1 Turnover I think (as long as it doesn't go for 6) and out of the 4, this is the scenario I'd like to see most as he only attempted 25 passes. The other 3 games Palmer attempted between 36-38 passes. I'd say around 25 attempts through the air and like 30 on the ground would be the best option for Dalton. Pittsburgh's Run D is good, but they've been gashed as well. Arian Foster ran for 155, Ray Rice 107 (Week 1), Jones-Drew 96, Addai 86.....Just be patient with the run game, and take some pressure off the Rook.

Another baseline would be the type of day the other Rookie QB who faced the Steelers this season had in Week 6

Blaine Gabbert 12-26 109 yards 1TD 0 INT with Pittsburgh squeeking out a 17-13 Victory

I think Dalton betters those numbers by some yards and a couple of completions, but I'd like to see the attempts around the same.

[derekshank]

Fair enough, but the Steelers D gives a lot of vet qbs problems as well (Brady two weeks ago, for instance). My larger point in the above post was to drive a stake in the ground as reference point for what a typical outing against the Steelers for a young qb might look like.

Yeah, I get that and I agree.

I guess my larger point though was to look at the last two seasons as a reference point. The defense plays the Steelers tough... so as long as the offense doesn't give the game away, there will be an opportunity to win it in the 4th quarter.

[membengal]

Fair enough, but the Steelers D gives a lot of vet qbs problems as well (Brady two weeks ago, for instance). My larger point in the above post was to drive a stake in the ground as reference point for what a typical outing against the Steelers for a young qb might look like.

Yeah, I get that and I agree.

I guess my larger point though was to look at the last two seasons as a reference point. The defense plays the Steelers tough... so as long as the offense doesn't give the game away, there will be an opportunity to win it in the 4th quarter.

I definitely don't disagree with that. We have a real shot at this.

ETA: Good point on Gabbert, Pimp, and how close the Jags were in that game.

[walzav29]

17 - 32 189 yards 2tds 1 int

[membengal]

Thought I would complete the picture of Carson's game against Pittsburgh:

Thought I would add onto this. Here are the rest of Carson's games against the Steelers:

2006:

18 for 26 (69.2%) for 193 yards 4 TDs 2 INTs QB rating 98.2 (Bengals win) (this was probably his best game against the Steelers)

20 for 38 (52.6%) for 251 yards 2 TDs 0 INTs QB rating 91 (Bengals loss - Shayne Graham game)

2007:

23 for 31 (74.2%) for 205 yards 1 TD 0 INTs QB rating 102.2 (Bengals loss) (this was his high-water QB rating and % game)

17 for 44 (38.6%) for 183 yards 0 TD 0 INT QB rating 51.6 (Bengals loss)

2008:

No games

2009:

20 for 37 (54.1%) for 183 yards 1 TD 0 INT QB rating 76.7 (Bengals win)

18 fo 30 (60%) for 178 yards 0 TD 0 INT QB rating 76.8 (Bengals win)

2010:

22 for 36 (61.1%) for 248 yards 2 TD 1 INT QB rating 88.7 (Bengals loss)

20 for 32 (62.5%) for 178 yards 1 TD 3 INTs QB rating 48.7 (Bengals loss)

So that's the complete picture. Most yards Carson EVER threw for against the Steelers was 251. That's it. A more typical game for Carson against the Steelers was under or right around 200 yards thrown. In fact, his career average YPG against the Steelers is right at 200 yards per game over 12 games. 17 TDs and 11 INTs in the 12 games.

[membengal]

17 - 32 189 yards 2tds 1 int

That is within the realm of reasonable, walter. Not a bad guess from where I sit. I would take that in a heartbeat. It would be a helluva game from the kid.

[derekshank]

17 - 32 189 yards 2tds 1 int

That is within the realm of reasonable, walter. Not a bad guess from where I sit. I would take that in a heartbeat. It would be a helluva game from the kid.

I'll be disappointed if he throws an interception. The Steelers currently have the lowest takeaway rate through 9 games in NFL history!

[jonf45uk]

17 - 32 189 yards 2tds 1 int

That is within the realm of reasonable, walter. Not a bad guess from where I sit. I would take that in a heartbeat. It would be a helluva game from the kid.

I'll be disappointed if he throws an interception. The Steelers currently have the lowest takeaway rate through 9 games in NFL history!

But this is the biggest game he's ever played.....

[derekshank]

17 - 32 189 yards 2tds 1 int

That is within the realm of reasonable, walter. Not a bad guess from where I sit. I would take that in a heartbeat. It would be a helluva game from the kid.

I'll be disappointed if he throws an interception. The Steelers currently have the lowest takeaway rate through 9 games in NFL history!

But this is the biggest game he's ever played.....

Yes, this is the biggest game he's ever played... for the 6th straight week.

That's kind of how it works when you're a rookie.

The Bengals had lost 10 straight vs. Buffalo.

The Bengals had lost 7 straight @ Jacksonville.

The Bengals had lost 7 straight vs. Indianapolis.

The Bengals hadn't won on the West Coast since 2003.

The Bengals hadn't won 5 straight since 1988.

Now... rookie QBs are 1-11 vs. the Steelers.

We keep talking about these historical streaks... but Dalton is the honey-badger. He don't give a s**t.

[jonf45uk]

17 - 32 189 yards 2tds 1 int

That is within the realm of reasonable, walter. Not a bad guess from where I sit. I would take that in a heartbeat. It would be a helluva game from the kid.

I'll be disappointed if he throws an interception. The Steelers currently have the lowest takeaway rate through 9 games in NFL history!

But this is the biggest game he's ever played.....

Yes, this is the biggest game he's ever played... for the 6th straight week.

That's kind of how it works when you're a rookie.

The Bengals had lost 10 straight vs. Buffalo.

The Bengals had lost 7 straight @ Jacksonville.

The Bengals had lost 7 straight vs. Indianapolis.

The Bengals hadn't won on the West Coast since 2003.

The Bengals hadn't won 5 straight since 1988.

Now... rookie QBs are 1-11 vs. the Steelers.

We keep talking about these historical streaks... but Dalton is the honey-badger. He don't give a s**t.

Very true. I certainly have more faith in him vrs the steelers than i ever did Palmer, and he wasn't a bad qb

Palmer just had a "rabbit in headlights" look about him versus the steeler to me, despite how many times he actually beat them. Like you say , nothing seems to faze the ginger one, just hope he doesn't get caught up in the hype( though without the likes of chad and T.O around, it seems far less likely)

[volcom69]

According to him TCU used to throw alot of the same blitzes at him like Pitt does, so maybe that helps him prepare alittle bit for this game.

[HairOnFire]

I guess my larger point though was to look at the last two seasons as a reference point. The defense plays the Steelers tough... so as long as the offense doesn't give the game away, there will be an opportunity to win it in the 4th quarter.

Agreed. How Dalton plays individually is important, but ultimately nothing more than a curiosity. But how Dalton can win is a different matter altogether and starts and ends with the way his team plays around him. And week in and week out this team wins with defense.

As far as stats go, I won't mind it a bit if Dalton has a Tebow moment where he struggles the entire game and then beats the Steelers using great gobs of unfounded confidence and mostly undeserved swagger.

[Spor_tees]

I guess my larger point though was to look at the last two seasons as a reference point. The defense plays the Steelers tough... so as long as the offense doesn't give the game away, there will be an opportunity to win it in the 4th quarter.

Agreed. How Dalton plays individually is important, but ultimately nothing more than a curiosity. But how Dalton can win is a different matter altogether and starts and ends with the way his team plays around him. And week in and week out this team wins with defense.

As far as stats go, I won't mind it a bit if Dalton has a Tebow moment where he struggles the entire game and then beats the Steelers using great gobs of unfounded confidence and mostly undeserved swagger.

Not I, I think if the Bengals can come out and dominate the Steelers the same way the Ravens did in their first meeting of the season, it will be a huge confidence booster for a young team to hang their hat on. On the other side of the coin, a Bengals smackdown of the Steelers will deflate some Pittsburgh ego that they are the class of the AFC North. If the Bengals barely squeak one out in the last minutes, it wouldn't hold as much water as a blowout.