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A little NFL draft history when you're setting at nbr 6


GregCook

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Yours truly, having some time to kill while breaking in my new HD-DVR, did some analysis of past NFL drafts and the positions that get picked on or before the number 6 over the last 10 years. If you're a Ray Maualuga fan, get ready to be disappointed. Same for these positions which aren't picked at number 6

Inside LB NEVER PICKED at 6th bye bye Ray

Safety rarely

Corner Back only twice

Guards 1 time

Center never

Nose Tackle Never

Special teams Never.

Given the Bengal's needs(excluding QB), the positions that are commonly selected at number 6 are

Offensive tackles, defensive tackles, running back, defensive end, wide receiver over the last 10 years. In fact its a tie since over the last 10 years exactly 7 guys have been picked on or before the 6th pick in the drafts for each of those 5 positions.

I highly doubt the Bengals will pick either a RB or WR in round 1. Why? If WR was such a need that they had to draft one, they would franchise TJ.

RB is unlikely given Benson's likely return but if he skips town RB is possible.

That leaves OT, DT and DE in the hunt. I've read a few draft analysis and DE and DT just don't have much stud depth. Raji seems to be a consensus top 10 pick but I haven't found a DE that is consensus top 10 so I'll eliminate DE from the list. The combine might change that, but for now, I'll exclude them.

So this leaves either OT or DT as your Bengal pick in 2009. With Raji being the only top DT in the draft, he could easily be gone by the time the Bengals draft. So given all of this, OT is the likely pick when the Bengals get the call at number 6.

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Looking at the number six spot in the last couple drafts, it seems like the place where the over-hyped and/or locker room cancer gets drafted.

Vernon Gholston- 13 tackles, zero sacks, zero INTs, zero pass defenses

Vernon Davis - Became the highest paid tight end without taking a snap. Benched by Mike Singletary because of his attitude.

Laron Landry- May be a good safety, but not good enough to be sixth overall and be one of the highest paid safeties in the NFL (Signed 5 years 41.5 mil with 17.5 mil guaranteed)

Pacman Jones- I think we all know what happened with him.

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Looking at the number six spot in the last couple drafts, it seems like the place where the over-hyped and/or locker room cancer gets drafted.

Vernon Gholston- 13 tackles, zero sacks, zero INTs, zero pass defenses

Vernon Davis - Became the highest paid tight end without taking a snap. Benched by Mike Singletary because of his attitude.

Laron Landry- May be a good safety, but not good enough to be sixth overall and be one of the highest paid safeties in the NFL (Signed 5 years 41.5 mil with 17.5 mil guaranteed)

Pacman Jones- I think we all know what happened with him.

You mean other teams whiff on draft picks? I thought only Mike Brown did that.

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While there may have never been an ILB chosen at #6, doesn't mean there WON'T ever be one chosen at #6. Just a coincidence. While I wouldn't be overjoyed or overupset by the Rey pick, I wouldn't completely rule it out. Curry is also the highest rated ILB and I think there is a good chance the Bengals would look at him with the 6th pick...

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While there may have never been an ILB chosen at #6, doesn't mean there WON'T ever be one chosen at #6. Just a coincidence. While I wouldn't be overjoyed or overupset by the Rey pick, I wouldn't completely rule it out. Curry is also the highest rated ILB and I think there is a good chance the Bengals would look at him with the 6th pick...

You are correct that history could be made in 2009. But these NFL guys do study prior drafts and know the dangers of busts drafting where the Bengals are at. Tried and true in this case would lead you to look at past drafts and who went where as a way to reduce the bust liklihood.

CentralBengalOhio these past picks only Gholston is a typical #6 pick, he's a DE. The others vary from rare to infrequently picked that high for good reason. There isn't that much of a drop off in talent from those positions as you work from round 1 to round 2. DE's are awhole nuther game though. In Gholston's case I do remember reading that some NFL types thought he was a work out warrior rather than a possibly great football player. Some noted he was lazy at the OSU and it showed in his game tape. Obviously a lot goes into a pick, I do think history of the draft does too, one of many factors.

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Draft studies should show that most top 10 picks have a greater chance of going on to a successful NFL career, but then again, do you really need a draft study to determine that ?? I'm pretty sure my 8 year old niece could figure that concept out. Bottom line is, if they view the guy at #6 as the best player available then pick him. If he happens to be a MLB, then so be it, but it won't have anything to do with being concerned about past drafts and the fact that a MLB has never been chosen at #6.

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Draft studies should show that most top 10 picks have a greater chance of going on to a successful NFL career, but then again, do you really need a draft study to determine that ?? I'm pretty sure my 8 year old niece could figure that concept out. Bottom line is, if they view the guy at #6 as the best player available then pick him. If he happens to be a MLB, then so be it, but it won't have anything to do with being concerned about past drafts and the fact that a MLB has never been chosen at #6.

I guess, if we were talking about if most top 10 picks have a greater success percentage, but that is some other thread, not this one.

Fact is prior drafts have clear patterns on draft day and linebackers taken at number 6 hasn't been done before. Since some think Ray Maualuga should be the first, how is he superior to Patrick Willis, taken 11th a couple drafts ago? Ray would have to be real special to break the mold on draft day, I just haven't seen it with him.

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Draft studies should show that most top 10 picks have a greater chance of going on to a successful NFL career, but then again, do you really need a draft study to determine that ?? I'm pretty sure my 8 year old niece could figure that concept out. Bottom line is, if they view the guy at #6 as the best player available then pick him. If he happens to be a MLB, then so be it, but it won't have anything to do with being concerned about past drafts and the fact that a MLB has never been chosen at #6.

I guess, if we were talking about if most top 10 picks have a greater success percentage, but that is some other thread, not this one.

Fact is prior drafts have clear patterns on draft day and linebackers taken at number 6 hasn't been done before. Since some think Ray Maualuga should be the first, how is he superior to Patrick Willis, taken 11th a couple drafts ago? Ray would have to be real special to break the mold on draft day, I just haven't seen it with him.

....and the 4.75-4.85 forty he'll run next week in Indy (if he runs) won't help. I just don't know what people see in Rey, other than the hair and tattoos. Maybe it's the Polamalu envy. Mike Mayock has Laurinaitis ahead of him right now. I'm willing to bet he doesn't go in the top 20.

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Honestly I could care less about Rey, the MLB I would be thinking about and who happens to be the #1 rated outside and INSIDE linebacker is Curry. I think he would be more than sufficient sitting at #6 and don't think he looks anywhere near bust status. Now if the Bengals deem rey the better of the two, then I guess that's just the way they see it. Then again, this would be the same group that thought Chris Perry was better than Steven Jackson as well.

If Rey is the guy, I would rather see him after we trade down, not at #6...

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Perry over Jackson.

What about Perry over Chris Gamble, Michael Jenkins, Ben Watson, Karlos Dansby, Travis LaBoy, Julius Jones and some guy names Bob Sanders before they picked Keiwan Ratliff in round 2.

Looking back, the Bengals missed badly in that '04 draft in a year they had 7 picks in the first 4 rounds ( 2 2nds, 2 3rds and 2 4ths

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_NFL_Draft

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Perry over Jackson.

What about Perry over Chris Gamble, Michael Jenkins, Ben Watson, Karlos Dansby, Travis LaBoy, Julius Jones and some guy names Bob Sanders before they picked Keiwan Ratliff in round 2.

Looking back, the Bengals missed badly in that '04 draft in a year they had 7 picks in the first 4 rounds ( 2 2nds, 2 3rds and 2 4ths

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_NFL_Draft

The reason they couldn't build on the good 2005 season was that 2004 and 2005 draft were rotten to the core giving them nothing to build on.

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rey would be the first MLB taken in the top 6 and the first to be a bust from where i sit.

No, they were talking about the actual #6 pick recently....NOT TOP 6...There have been many LB's over the years drafted in the top 6. A.J Hawk was drafted #5 overall in 2006.

oh, my bad. so much for hooked on phonics.

i wouldn't mind a trade down that gets us in the 15-20range. rey, and an extra 3rd, might work if curry's off the board.

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rey would be the first MLB taken in the top 6 and the first to be a bust from where i sit.

No, they were talking about the actual #6 pick recently....NOT TOP 6...There have been many LB's over the years drafted in the top 6. A.J Hawk was drafted #5 overall in 2006.

oh, my bad. so much for hooked on phonics.

i wouldn't mind a trade down that gets us in the 15-20range. rey, and an extra 3rd, might work if curry's off the board.

Would you trade the #6 overall with Detroit for the #20 pick and the first pick in round 2? I know it's a pipe dream but personally, I would. The Lions could draft the one of the best 2 LTs and quarterbacks on day 1, with the 1st and 6th picks. The Bengals could be looking at Beatty/Britton, McCoy/Harvin and Unger/Wood in the first 2 rounds.

Just the kind of trade the Bengals need to make.

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rey would be the first MLB taken in the top 6 and the first to be a bust from where i sit.

No, they were talking about the actual #6 pick recently....NOT TOP 6...There have been many LB's over the years drafted in the top 6. A.J Hawk was drafted #5 overall in 2006.

oh, my bad. so much for hooked on phonics.

i wouldn't mind a trade down that gets us in the 15-20range. rey, and an extra 3rd, might work if curry's off the board.

Would you trade the #6 overall with Detroit for the #20 pick and the first pick in round 2? I know it's a pipe dream but personally, I would. The Lions could draft the one of the best 2 LTs and quarterbacks on day 1, with the 1st and 6th picks. The Bengals could be looking at Beatty/Britton, McCoy/Harvin and Unger/Wood in the first 2 rounds.

Just the kind of trade the Bengals need to make.

in a heart beat. but i don't think that works out on the trade chart.

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rey would be the first MLB taken in the top 6 and the first to be a bust from where i sit.

No, they were talking about the actual #6 pick recently....NOT TOP 6...There have been many LB's over the years drafted in the top 6. A.J Hawk was drafted #5 overall in 2006.

oh, my bad. so much for hooked on phonics.

i wouldn't mind a trade down that gets us in the 15-20range. rey, and an extra 3rd, might work if curry's off the board.

Would you trade the #6 overall with Detroit for the #20 pick and the first pick in round 2? I know it's a pipe dream but personally, I would. The Lions could draft the one of the best 2 LTs and quarterbacks on day 1, with the 1st and 6th picks. The Bengals could be looking at Beatty/Britton, McCoy/Harvin and Unger/Wood in the first 2 rounds.

Just the kind of trade the Bengals need to make.

At 20# i'm taking mack :P

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Would you trade the #6 overall with Detroit for the #20 pick and the first pick in round 2? I know it's a pipe dream but personally, I would. The Lions could draft the one of the best 2 LTs and quarterbacks on day 1, with the 1st and 6th picks. The Bengals could be looking at Beatty/Britton, McCoy/Harvin and Unger/Wood in the first 2 rounds.

Just the kind of trade the Bengals need to make.

For the Lions to move up that far it would take not only the #20 pick, but both their 2nd and 3rd rounder to make that worth the Bengals time. Not only that, I really don't think it makes sense for Detroit to give up that much when they are sitting at the top of each round. They can get the best QB in the draft and a 1st round talent at OT in the top of the first. Follow that with some defensive help in the top of the 3rd and it just doesn't pay off. A team in need of that much rebuilding doesn't need to give up picks, they need to get more.

The Bengals could do some serious damage with a trade like that and would be crazy to pass up something of that magnitude. That being said, if it were offered, I would fully expect Mike Brown to decline it in order to take Beanie Wells... :pokey:

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