Senior Bowl

[DesperateDerelict]

This is the difference between a pick in the top 10 and a mid-twenties player.

At 9, they better get a serious impact player. Ellis is just that.

You're not saying there won't be another serious impact player available if Ellis goes before us? I think you have to wait'n'see, Mr. Willy.

I predict AT LEAST 3 players zoom up the board to become 'top ten' players. I also predict at least one top 5 guy slides out of the top 10.

Current "Impact" Players in positions of need: Dorsey (DT), Ellis (DT), Long (DE/OLB), Gholston (DE/OLB), and Long and Clady at OT, along with 1 RB (McFadden) and 1 QB (Ryan).

That's 8, and we're sitting at #9. Possible "zoomers" up to Impact Status are Balmer (DT), Campbell & Merling (DE), some LB's (Rivers, Connors?, and Groves), and alot of DBs (Talib, Cromartie, R.Smith, Jenkins), WR's, and RB's.

Even if a couple of current hot properties are down-graded after the combine (Gholston? Ryan? Clady?) we'll still be in the "CAT-BIRD" seat. Actually, I hope M&M will listen to any reasonable offer to pick up an extra day one pick.

NOTE: One guy won't fix this defense.

[HairOnFire]

Possibly, but at 9 I'd prefer a Patrick Willis type (an outstanding player) over a Leon Hall type (a good player)

But that's not the whole point....because you're not including the cost of moving up. And that cost could be considerable if you're talking about a fairly high 2nd round pick....the price you'd have to pay to move into a position where drafting Ellis becomes a near certainty.

I think if Sedrick is still available when the 6th pick comes up, we need to start workin' the phones

Again, that draft scenario is far cheaper, costing a 3rd rounder instead of a 2nd, but even that may not be needed if the Bengals were fairly confident that Baltimore and New England weren't interested in selecting a DT. And frankly, that's a fairly good bet in my opinion.

[TJJackson]

Possibly, but at 9 I'd prefer a Patrick Willis type (an outstanding player) over a Leon Hall type (a good player)

But that's not the whole point....because you're not including the cost of moving up. And that cost could be considerable if you're talking about a fairly high 2nd round pick....the price you'd have to pay to move into a position where drafting Ellis becomes a near certainty.

Nah....if we get him at 9....which is what I say here....there's been no trade. However, you're commenting on my overall theme here, which expresses a willingness to trade up, so that's cool.

That said, I don't think a motivated team would need a 2. I think a 3 would do it. As with any trade, the motivation of the trade partner is half or more of the equation. I'd be OK with dropping two spots and picking up an early 3 if I know the player I want will be there 2 picks later, and I imagine this would be attractive to most GMs. And so on. OTOH, I don't think I'd be OK with losing pick 9 and our sole early 2 for Ellis, unless maybe we also picked back up a late 2 or a VERY early 3 in the exchange as well.

[Wraith]

One player won't fix this defense but 2 might IF Pollack and Thurman can come back and play at the level they were playing before we lost them (for various reasons).

If we look at the players who WILL be gone by the time we pick: Dorsey (top 5), McFadden (top 5), Jake Long (top 5), Chris Long (top 5), Matt Ryan (top 5) and we look at the players that are likely to go in the next 3 we likely have 1 additional QB (Woodson or Brohm), Ryan Clady, and then we have a toss up between Ghoulson, Ellis, Mike Jenkins CB South Florida, Kenny Phillips S Miami, Keith Rivers LB USC, and Rashad Mendenhall RB Illinois (if he tests well). All we have to have is 1 of those players ranked higher on a draft board to get the player we need. The three teams that are ahead of us after the top 5 go are the Jets, Patriots, and Ravens. IMHO the Patriots will look towards a guy like Jenkins or Phillips rather than pick Ellis who would sit behind a young strong 3-4 Line in Seymour, Warren, Green, and Wilfork which is unquestionably the strength of their defense. The Ravens would be idiotic to continue to ignore their QB situation particularly if a guy like Woodson or Brohm were sitting there and if they did go defense Rivers would be a better fit because of their need at LBer. Which leaves the Jets and they would be well served by selecting Clady to shore up an awful O-Line but could very well take Ellis. Of course the wild card would be a team like New England stockpileing draft picks and trading down. I actually think we caught a break with San Fran trading their pick because they would be very likely to pick Ellis he is exactly the type of player they need to compliment Lawson.

[TJJackson]

A well thought-out analysis, Wraith, but.....

I don't think NE, with it's 3-4 defense and all, will want S Ellis

What I do see is that NE will listen to any and all offers to move down, as their personnel department is strong enough to pick a gem later (and cheaper) in the draft. The team that will take S Ellis ahead of us is the team that trades into NE's spot. Or with another pick-hungry team that drafts ahead of us, like Atlanta.

I see this as reasonably likely.

Let me add this: I prefer Ellis over Dorsey at this point. Let the mudslinging begin :-)

[HairOnFire]

The team that will take S Ellis ahead of us is the team that trades into NE's spot. Or with another pick-hungry team that drafts ahead of us, like Atlanta.

I agree. That said, the threat of a team trading ahead of the Bengals to select Ellis isn't so great that the Bengals wouldn't be well served to sit tight and take their chances that he falls to them at #9 rather than trade away a valuable trade asset out of concerns, which may be unfounded, that Ellis would be taken ahead of their slot. After all, if the Bengals decide not to move up what are the odds that Ellis might still be available? Probably 50/50 at the worst, right?

Let me add this: I prefer Ellis over Dorsey at this point. Let the mudslinging begin :-)

Won't happen. I said the very same thing more than a month ago and nobody took a shot at me....and guys like Mike Mayoch have ranked Ellis and Dorsey as equals for quite some time. In fact, Mayoch recently claimed that the final ranking for most teams will be based upon the scheme that they run, with Dorsey being more appealling only to teams that play a base 4-3. Ellis would likely top the rankings of any team that played a 3-4 as well as a few others who play a 4-3.

[TJJackson]

Everyone, quick....write it down....Hair agreed with me on Jan 29, 2008

I'm off to the hospital to get my heart checked

[kingwilly]

This is the difference between a pick in the top 10 and a mid-twenties player.

At 9, they better get a serious impact player. Ellis is just that.

You're not saying there won't be another serious impact player available if Ellis goes before us? I think you have to wait'n'see, Mr. Willy

NOTE: One guy won't fix this defense.

I was only comparing an Ellis to a Hall, with Ellis being a more impactful player in shorter period of time, thus improving the D faster.

Yes, one guy won't fix the D. It will take about 4.

[DesperateDerelict]

Here's a mind Bender - Ellis could very well be there, and M&M DON"T TAKE HIM !!!! If they feel that there is an interior lineman (or 2) that will be available and under-valued later, they'll go for a position they feel they cannot fill in the later rounds or by free agency.

Remind anybody of the bad old days with Coslet & Lebeau ???

ps - that would really piss me off, but theyve done it (multiple) times before, and sometimes it worked (Anybody remember Phillip Buchanan vs Levi Jones ??)

[Pidge]

Here's a mind Bender - Ellis could very well be there, and M&M DON"T TAKE HIM !!!! If they feel that there is an interior lineman (or 2) that will be available and under-valued later, they'll go for a position they feel they cannot fill in the later rounds or by free agency.

Well, that's the issue isn't it? Let's be honest, it's only the fans that are thinking (more hoping) that any significant upgrades might occur through FA. All signs from the orginisation are that we basically have to do it all through the draft, save for the odd miracle scrub contributing through FA. Dhani Jones kind of players.

So, that above scenario is all too possible.

[TJJackson]

Pidge - gotta know - the girl w/baby in shown as your avatar - is that Ms Pidge and Pidge Jr?

Yeah, it's offtopic. Sue me.

[Pidge]

Pidge - gotta know - the girl w/baby in shown as your avatar - is that Ms Pidge and Pidge Jr?

Yeah, it's offtopic. Sue me.

It is indeed, TJ.

You'll be hearing from my lawyers!

[TJJackson]

Tell the lawyers to take a number and get in line :-)

[Pidge]

Tell the lawyers to take a number and get in line :-)

Man, I wonder how much they bill hourly for waiting in line. I mean a ten minute phone requires mne to take out a second mortgage. You're off the hook.

This time.

[HoosierCat]

Worth noting...

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/footbal...,0,312956.story

If Ogden calls it a career I think that takes Baltimore out of the Ellis running. Between OT and QB they can't go D...

[TJJackson]

They picked up Ogden's replacement in the supplemental draft last year....some huge kid out of Maryland

[fattyjay]

Gaither.