Third Down Woes

[HoosierCat]

Inspired by my chat with oldschooler in another thread, I decided to pull all the third down plays out of the official play-by-play list and see if any trends jumped out. And yeah, one did: if you're an opposing defense, you barely even have to give lip service to the run on 3rd down, no matter what the distance to go is. Our 3rd down run/pass ratio is on the order of 15%/85%. Clearly KC figured this out, because they really teed off on Palmer on 3rd downs, netting 2 of their sacks and a pick.

BAL

3-4-CIN 27 (10:45) 9-C.Palmer pass incomplete short left to 84-T.Houshmandzadeh.

3-4-BAL 35 (9:10) 9-C.Palmer pass incomplete short right to 88-T.Perry.

3-4-BAL 5 (4:12) 9-C.Palmer pass incomplete short middle to 88-T.Perry.

3-11-CIN 24 (1:46) 9-C.Palmer pass incomplete short right to 84-T.Houshmandzadeh

3-3-CIN 27 (10:56) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass short left to 85-C.Johnson to CIN 32 for 5 yards

3-6-BAL 35 (8:08) 9-C.Palmer pass short right to 84-T.Houshmandzadeh to BAL 34 for 1 yard

3-4-BAL 22 (1:12) 9-C.Palmer pass incomplete short left to 88-T.Perry.

3-3-CIN 29 (14:06) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass short middle to 86-D.Coats to CIN 38 for 9 yards

3-1-CIN 47 (12:18) 9-C.Palmer up the middle to CIN 49 for 2 yards

3-12-CIN 47 (10:17) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer sacked at CIN 34 for -13 yards

3-8-CIN 22 (5:13) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass short right to 84-T.Houshmandzadeh to CIN 26 for 4 yards

3-8-CIN 13 (12:32) 9-C.Palmer pass incomplete short left to 88-T.Perry.

3-5-CIN 33 (11:22) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass incomplete short middle to 33-K.Watson

Conversions: 3-10

Run/Pass: 1/12

CLE

3-16-CIN 21 (8:09) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass deep middle intended for 85-C.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 26-S.Jones at CIN 48.

3-8-CIN 35 (3:46) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass incomplete short right to 84-T.Houshmandzadeh.

3-4-CIN 39 (9:40) (No Huddle) PENALTY on CLE-98-Roba.Smith, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 39 - No Play.

3-2-CIN 34 (:17) (No Huddle) 9-C.Palmer pass short left to 84-T.Houshmandzadeh to CIN 39 for 5 yards

3-1-CLE 2 (12:58) (No Huddle) 9-C.Palmer up the middle to CLE 2 for no gain

3-8-CLE 14 (6:18) 9-C.Palmer pass short middle to 85-C.Johnson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

3-10-CLE 27 (1:36) 9-C.Palmer pass deep middle to 85-C.Johnson to CLE 5 for 22 yards

3-2-CLE 43 (13:25) (No Huddle) 9-C.Palmer pass incomplete short right to 82-R.Kelly.

3-10- (8:46) (Shotgun) PENALTY on CIN-9-C.Palmer, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.

3-15-CIN 45 (8:46) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass incomplete deep right to 85-C.Johnson.

3-10- (4:17) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass incomplete short left to 84-T.Houshmandzadeh.

4-10- (4:12) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass short right to 85-C.Johnson ran ob at CLE 18 for 32 yards

3-10-CLE 18 (3:54) 9-C.Palmer pass short right to 84-T.Houshmandzadeh pushed ob at CLE 7 for 11 yards

3-2-CIN 17 (:53) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass short right to 32-R.Johnson ran ob at CIN 20 for 3 yards

Conversions 7-14 (inc. 1 by penalty)

Run/Pass 1/12 (+1 penalty)

SEA

3-9-CIN 18 (12:21) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass short right to 84-T.Houshmandzadeh to CIN 33 for 15 yards

3-3-CIN 40 (10:49) 9-C.Palmer pass short right to 85-C.Johnson pushed ob at CIN 44 for 4 yards

3-1-SEA 31 (8:20) 32-R.Johnson right tackle to SEA 30 for 1 yard

3-10-SEA 30 (6:25) (Shotgun) PENALTY on CIN-63-B.Williams, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 30 - No Play.

3-15-SEA 35 (6:25) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass deep right to 84-T.Houshmandzadeh for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

3-1-SEA 21 (11:07) 32-R.Johnson left tackle to SEA 25 for -4 yards

3-20-CIN 29 (6:01) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass deep right to 84-T.Houshmandzadeh to CIN 46 for 17 yards

3-5-CIN 37 (1:18) (No Huddle) 9-C.Palmer pass incomplete short left to 85-C.Johnson

3-1-CIN 28 (14:11) 31-J.Johnson up the middle to CIN 40 for 12 yards

3-10-CIN 40 (13:00) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass deep right to 85-C.Johnson to SEA 40 for 20 yards

3-10-SEA 40 (12:21) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass incomplete deep middle to 84-T.Houshmandzadeh

3-16-SEA 44 (9:34) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass deep left intended for 85-C.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 25-B.Russell

3-3-CIN 13 (4:06) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass short left to 85-C.Johnson pushed ob at CIN 23 for 10 yards

3-1-CIN 32 (3:03) 33-K.Watson left end to CIN 37 for 5 yards

3-5-CIN 42 (1:47) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass short right to 82-R.Kelly pushed ob at CIN 46 for 4 yards

3-6-SEA 40 (14:01) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass short right to 84-T.Houshmandzadeh to SEA 31 for 9 yards

3-8-SEA 15 (11:32) 9-C.Palmer pass short left to 86-D.Coats to SEA 5 for 10 yards

3-6-SEA 6 (10:03) 9-C.Palmer pass incomplete short middle to 85-C.Johnson

3-2-SEA 22 (3:22) 33-K.Watson up the middle to SEA 8 for 14 yards

Conversions: 11-19

Run/Pass 4/14

NE

3-11-CIN 30 (8:34) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer sacked at CIN 22 for -8 yards

3-5-CIN 25 (3:54) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass short middle to 31-J.Johnson to CIN 29 for 4 yards

3-3-CIN 33 (:06) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass incomplete short left to 33-K.Watson

3-11-(12:15) 9-C.Palmer pass incomplete short middle to 86-D.Coats.

3-2-NE 22 (4:17) 9-C.Palmer pass incomplete short left to 16-G.Holt (54-T.Bruschi) [54-T.Bruschi]. Tipped at the line of scrimmage

3-8-NE 39 (10:39) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass incomplete short left to 85-C.Johnson.

4-8-NE 39 (10:33) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass short middle to 84-T.Houshmandzadeh to NE 29 for 10 yards

3-11-NE 30 (9:17) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass incomplete short right to 83-A.Chatman

Conversions: 1-8

Run/Pass: 0/8

KC

3-4-CIN 24 (5:39) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer sacked at CIN 16 for -8 yards

3-17-CIN 10 (:02) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass short right to 33-K.Watson ran ob at CIN 15 for 5 yards (90-T.McBride). PENALTY on KC-20-B.Sapp, Personal Foul, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 15. Penalty on KC-20-B.Sapp, Defensive Holding, declined.

3-14-CIN 32 (10:01) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass short left intended for 85-C.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 23-P.Surtain

3-1-CIN 38 (5:16) 33-K.Watson right end to CIN 37 for -1 yards

3-10-CIN 15 (1:44) 33-K.Watson left end pushed ob at CIN 21 for 6 yards

3-2-CIN 28 (14:00) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer sacked at CIN 26 for -2 yards

3-3-CIN 34 (8:39) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer right end pushed ob at CIN 36 for 2 yards

3-3-CIN 48 (4:27) 9-C.Palmer pass incomplete short right to 84-T.Houshmandzadeh

3-5-CIN 21 (11:33) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass incomplete deep right to 83-A.Chatman. Cincinnati challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld.

3-5-CIN 39 (3:38) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass short right to 84-T.Houshmandzadeh ran ob at KC 41 for 20 yards.

3-10-KC 18 (:20) 17-S.Graham 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.St. Louis, Holder-19-K.Larson.

Conversions: 4-11 (inc. 1 by penalty, 1 FG, and counting the blown call on Chatman as a conversion even tho it wasn't ruled one.)

Run/Pass 3/6 (+1 penalty and +1 FG)

Total Conversions 26-64

Total 3rd down runs: 9

Total 3rd down passes: 52

Total 3rd down other: 3

[BengalszoneBilly]

Inspired by my chat with oldschooler in another thread, I decided to pull all the third down plays out of the official play-by-play list and see if any trends jumped out. And yeah, one did: if you're an opposing defense, you barely even have to give lip service to the run on 3rd down, no matter what the distance to go is. Our 3rd down run/pass ratio is on the order of 15%/85%. Clearly KC figured this out, because they really teed off on Palmer on 3rd downs, netting 2 of their sacks and a pick.

BAL

3-4-CIN 27 (10:45) 9-C.Palmer pass incomplete short left to 84-T.Houshmandzadeh.

3-4-BAL 35 (9:10) 9-C.Palmer pass incomplete short right to 88-T.Perry.

3-4-BAL 5 (4:12) 9-C.Palmer pass incomplete short middle to 88-T.Perry.

3-11-CIN 24 (1:46) 9-C.Palmer pass incomplete short right to 84-T.Houshmandzadeh

3-3-CIN 27 (10:56) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass short left to 85-C.Johnson to CIN 32 for 5 yards

3-6-BAL 35 (8:08) 9-C.Palmer pass short right to 84-T.Houshmandzadeh to BAL 34 for 1 yard

3-4-BAL 22 (1:12) 9-C.Palmer pass incomplete short left to 88-T.Perry.

3-3-CIN 29 (14:06) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass short middle to 86-D.Coats to CIN 38 for 9 yards

3-1-CIN 47 (12:18) 9-C.Palmer up the middle to CIN 49 for 2 yards

3-12-CIN 47 (10:17) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer sacked at CIN 34 for -13 yards

3-8-CIN 22 (5:13) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass short right to 84-T.Houshmandzadeh to CIN 26 for 4 yards

3-8-CIN 13 (12:32) 9-C.Palmer pass incomplete short left to 88-T.Perry.

3-5-CIN 33 (11:22) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass incomplete short middle to 33-K.Watson

Conversions: 3-10

Run/Pass: 1/12

CLE

3-16-CIN 21 (8:09) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass deep middle intended for 85-C.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 26-S.Jones at CIN 48.

3-8-CIN 35 (3:46) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass incomplete short right to 84-T.Houshmandzadeh.

3-4-CIN 39 (9:40) (No Huddle) PENALTY on CLE-98-Roba.Smith, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 39 - No Play.

3-2-CIN 34 (:17) (No Huddle) 9-C.Palmer pass short left to 84-T.Houshmandzadeh to CIN 39 for 5 yards

3-1-CLE 2 (12:58) (No Huddle) 9-C.Palmer up the middle to CLE 2 for no gain

3-8-CLE 14 (6:18) 9-C.Palmer pass short middle to 85-C.Johnson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

3-10-CLE 27 (1:36) 9-C.Palmer pass deep middle to 85-C.Johnson to CLE 5 for 22 yards

3-2-CLE 43 (13:25) (No Huddle) 9-C.Palmer pass incomplete short right to 82-R.Kelly.

3-10- (8:46) (Shotgun) PENALTY on CIN-9-C.Palmer, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.

3-15-CIN 45 (8:46) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass incomplete deep right to 85-C.Johnson.

3-10- (4:17) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass incomplete short left to 84-T.Houshmandzadeh.

4-10- (4:12) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass short right to 85-C.Johnson ran ob at CLE 18 for 32 yards

3-10-CLE 18 (3:54) 9-C.Palmer pass short right to 84-T.Houshmandzadeh pushed ob at CLE 7 for 11 yards

3-2-CIN 17 (:53) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass short right to 32-R.Johnson ran ob at CIN 20 for 3 yards

Conversions 7-14 (inc. 1 by penalty)

Run/Pass 1/12 (+1 penalty)

SEA

3-9-CIN 18 (12:21) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass short right to 84-T.Houshmandzadeh to CIN 33 for 15 yards

3-3-CIN 40 (10:49) 9-C.Palmer pass short right to 85-C.Johnson pushed ob at CIN 44 for 4 yards

3-1-SEA 31 (8:20) 32-R.Johnson right tackle to SEA 30 for 1 yard

3-10-SEA 30 (6:25) (Shotgun) PENALTY on CIN-63-B.Williams, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 30 - No Play.

3-15-SEA 35 (6:25) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass deep right to 84-T.Houshmandzadeh for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

3-1-SEA 21 (11:07) 32-R.Johnson left tackle to SEA 25 for -4 yards

3-20-CIN 29 (6:01) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass deep right to 84-T.Houshmandzadeh to CIN 46 for 17 yards

3-5-CIN 37 (1:18) (No Huddle) 9-C.Palmer pass incomplete short left to 85-C.Johnson

3-1-CIN 28 (14:11) 31-J.Johnson up the middle to CIN 40 for 12 yards

3-10-CIN 40 (13:00) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass deep right to 85-C.Johnson to SEA 40 for 20 yards

3-10-SEA 40 (12:21) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass incomplete deep middle to 84-T.Houshmandzadeh

3-16-SEA 44 (9:34) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass deep left intended for 85-C.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 25-B.Russell

3-3-CIN 13 (4:06) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass short left to 85-C.Johnson pushed ob at CIN 23 for 10 yards

3-1-CIN 32 (3:03) 33-K.Watson left end to CIN 37 for 5 yards

3-5-CIN 42 (1:47) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass short right to 82-R.Kelly pushed ob at CIN 46 for 4 yards

3-6-SEA 40 (14:01) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass short right to 84-T.Houshmandzadeh to SEA 31 for 9 yards

3-8-SEA 15 (11:32) 9-C.Palmer pass short left to 86-D.Coats to SEA 5 for 10 yards

3-6-SEA 6 (10:03) 9-C.Palmer pass incomplete short middle to 85-C.Johnson

3-2-SEA 22 (3:22) 33-K.Watson up the middle to SEA 8 for 14 yards

Conversions: 11-19

Run/Pass 4/14

NE

3-11-CIN 30 (8:34) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer sacked at CIN 22 for -8 yards

3-5-CIN 25 (3:54) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass short middle to 31-J.Johnson to CIN 29 for 4 yards

3-3-CIN 33 (:06) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass incomplete short left to 33-K.Watson

3-11-(12:15) 9-C.Palmer pass incomplete short middle to 86-D.Coats.

3-2-NE 22 (4:17) 9-C.Palmer pass incomplete short left to 16-G.Holt (54-T.Bruschi) [54-T.Bruschi]. Tipped at the line of scrimmage

3-8-NE 39 (10:39) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass incomplete short left to 85-C.Johnson.

4-8-NE 39 (10:33) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass short middle to 84-T.Houshmandzadeh to NE 29 for 10 yards

3-11-NE 30 (9:17) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass incomplete short right to 83-A.Chatman

Conversions: 1-8

Run/Pass: 0/8

KC

3-4-CIN 24 (5:39) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer sacked at CIN 16 for -8 yards

3-17-CIN 10 (:02) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass short right to 33-K.Watson ran ob at CIN 15 for 5 yards (90-T.McBride). PENALTY on KC-20-B.Sapp, Personal Foul, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 15. Penalty on KC-20-B.Sapp, Defensive Holding, declined.

3-14-CIN 32 (10:01) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass short left intended for 85-C.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 23-P.Surtain

3-1-CIN 38 (5:16) 33-K.Watson right end to CIN 37 for -1 yards

3-10-CIN 15 (1:44) 33-K.Watson left end pushed ob at CIN 21 for 6 yards

3-2-CIN 28 (14:00) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer sacked at CIN 26 for -2 yards

3-3-CIN 34 (8:39) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer right end pushed ob at CIN 36 for 2 yards

3-3-CIN 48 (4:27) 9-C.Palmer pass incomplete short right to 84-T.Houshmandzadeh

3-5-CIN 21 (11:33) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass incomplete deep right to 83-A.Chatman. Cincinnati challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld.

3-5-CIN 39 (3:38) (Shotgun) 9-C.Palmer pass short right to 84-T.Houshmandzadeh ran ob at KC 41 for 20 yards.

3-10-KC 18 (:20) 17-S.Graham 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.St. Louis, Holder-19-K.Larson.

Conversions: 4-11 (inc. 1 by penalty, 1 FG, and counting the blown call on Chatman as a conversion even tho it wasn't ruled one.)

Run/Pass 3/6 (+1 penalty and +1 FG)

Total Conversions 26-64

Total 3rd down runs: 9

Total 3rd down passes: 52

Total 3rd down other: 3

Hoosier...that was a lot of time you spent on this!

[volcom69]

Wow nice work here must have spent some time on this good job. Its hard to believe with the offense they have and they cant convert 3rd downs, but i guess the musical lineman and the inconsitant 3rd reciever dosnt help either.

[HoosierCat]

Just copy/paste, guys, that's all. Took maybe 15-20 mins. Glad if you find it useful, tho.

I really didn't expect the drastic spread between the run and pass. Obviously, if its 3rd and long or even 3rd and medium, it's probably a passing situation, but they are regularly throwing on 3-3, 3-2.

[volcom69]

Goes to show what Marvin and Brat think of the running game to this point IT REALLY SUCKS and they cant even pick up a 3rd and 1 half the time running it.

[BengalszoneBilly]

Goes to show what Marvin and Brat think of the running game to this point IT REALLY SUCKS and they cant even pick up a 3rd and 1 half the time running it.

I'd call a pass too on those downs with the lack of running lanes the offensive line has been opening up.

[HairOnFire]

I really didn't expect the drastic spread between the run and pass. Obviously, if its 3rd and long or even 3rd and medium, it's probably a passing situation, but they are regularly throwing on 3-3, 3-2.

I would have guessed the run/pass ratio was heavily tilted towards throwing the ball...if for no other reason than that's when the Bengals failures have been most glaring. Palmer forcing the ball to Chad, Palmer missing receivers high, Bengal wideouts dropping passes at the worst possible time. Passes completed for little or no yardage. Drive killers.

That said, I'm a little suprised by the number of pass atempts on 3rd and short, and I stunned by how often the Bengals completely abandon the run option on may of those attempts by lining up in shotgun formation. That's mind boggling on the surface, and it's even worse when you look closer at the miserable results.

[redsbengalsbucks]

I have repeatedly been upset with the Offensive play calling of this OC, for years. Even when they were winning in 2005 he tried his best to let the games slip away.

[The PatternMaster]

I think this shows how far Carson has to come before he is truly an elite qb in the NFL, yes he has the physical tools but he still isn't there with the mental aspect of the game. Carson has been given the keys to the franchise, specifically the offense. Carson calls his own plays and changes them when he sees fit, I have no doubt that it's Carson's decision to pass the ball on 3rd down being that the running game hasn't gotten on track and Carson has supreme confidence in his abilities.

Balance is the one of the keys to success in the NFL, if the opposing team doesn't know what to expect you will always be ahead of the curve and have a greater chance at success. By passing the ball 85% of the time on 3rd downs the offense is anything but balanced, Carson has to trust his teammates and not be so selfish.