Boy the pundits sure don't like the Bengals' 2007 draft!

[Tasher]

http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/features/...atibengals.html

June 5, 2006

Cincinnati Bengals '07 Draft Review

Scott Wright

President, NFL Draft Countdown

When it comes to the NFL Draft this year represented the start of a new era for the Cincinnati Bengals. After emphasizing talent over character and selecting guys with off-the-field issues such as Odell Thurman, Chris Henry, and A.J. Nicholson in recent years with disastrous results the Bengals had to re-evaluate their drafting philosophy and the results of that shift in focus were reflected in this class. After underachieving and failing to live up to expectations in 2006 the Bengals are probably closer to being a legit Super Bowl contender than most think so one great draft and offseason could potentially be enough to put them over the top. Did they come through with that kind of effort?

In round one Cincy was fortunate to see Michigan cornerback Leon Hall still on the board as he could easily have gone much earlier, maybe even in the Top 10 overall. A top rated corner coming into his senior year who maintained a lofty grade throughout the process, Hall was passed up by Darrelle Revis on most teams boards in the month leading up to the draft but still ended up being the second player chosen at his position. The big concern with Hall was speed and while he answered those questions to a degree with a sub-4.4 clocking at the Scouting Combine he really doesn't play that fast on the field. Hall is not a shutdown corner in the mold of Champ Bailey but he is extremely solid and does everything well so even though he may never be a true #1 at the pro level he should be a fine #2. Tory James is gone and Deltha O'Neal has one foot out the door so it's only a matter of time until Hall joins last years first round pick Johnathan Joseph in the starting lineup and he'll provide a big upgrade for them in the secondary.

In round two the Bengals made a very questionable move when they selected Auburn running back Kenny Irons, who is a good player and an instinctive runner but doesn't fit what they needed. Rudi Johnson is one of the better, more consistent running backs in the league and former first rounder Chris Perry is a very good backup when healthy, even though that has been an issue for him. The problem I have is that, at best, Irons will be a backup and he might even be a third stringer so round two was much too early to grab a guy like that whose impact on the depth chart will be minimal. Furthermore, Irons has terrible hands as a receiver out of the backfield which makes him a poor fit as a 3rd round / change-of-pace type. With their next pick in round four Cincinnati reached a bit for T.C.U. safety Marvin White, a good athlete with a lot of upside who I really liked and felt was underrated. White certainly addresses a need for Cincy and while you could debate the value they got with the pick the bottom line is that White will have a good opportunity to come in and maybe push Dexter Jackson for a starting job relatively early in his pro career.

In round five Cincinnati made another questionable selection when they chose Nevada quarterback Jeff Rowe, who will be groomed as the long-term backup to Carson Palmer. Now with Doug Johnson slated to backup Palmer in '07 there is no doubt that Cincy needed a better #2 option and while Rowe might one day be able to be that guy he isn't now and depending on him or Johnson to take the reigns should Palmer get hurt again is a huge mistake. The Bengals needed a steady veteran signal caller as insurance, not a rookie. In round six Cincinnati finally brought in some defensive line help when they chose Oregon's Matt Toeaina. An effort player with a great motor, Toeaina profiles as more of a backup in the pros but he is versatile enough to play either tackle or end depending on the scheme.

With their final two picks in round seven the Bengals looked to South Bend and chose a couple of Notre Dame guys in offensive guard Dan Santucci and safety Chinedum Ndukwe. A former defensive tackle, Santucci is a little undersized but is a good athlete and he'll help to replenish the depth they lost when Eric Steinbach bolted as a free agent. Ndukwe is a former wide receiver who certainly looks the part and tested very well but he doesn't play up to those measurables on the field, especially in coverage, and is somewhat of a workout warrior.

Outside of their first pick, Hall, I don't see this class providing much of an impact in 2007 and the long-term outlook isn't much better. Despite their talent the Bengals were not a team without needs (Wide Receiver Depth? Defensive Line?) and in my opinion they only addressed one hole, which just isn't enough. Fortunately for Cincy they have a lot of pieces in place and just need to play up to their abilities to enjoy a big turnaround this year and that is the route they will have to go because this draft class won't be providing much help.

GRADE: C

[Kazkal]

F them.

[HairOnFire]

(Shrug)

The selections of Hall and White are both said to be solid picks that represent outstanding value for players the scouts love. In addition, there isn't a critical word said about the selecion of the Big Toe. So there's the love.

As for the selection of Irons, the analysis claims that he's a poor fit for the 3rd down role that Perry can't seem to fill, and thus is doomed to be little more than Rudi's backup. Well, a backup for Rudi, not Perry, was a need, right? In fact, it is a far more pressing need than a 3rd down pass catching back since, even without the always missing Perry, the Bengals have always had the reliable Kenny Watson to fill that role. And best, if Perry ever returns to health the Bengals will have capable backups for both tailback roles. But most important, Perry is likely to be unavailable for the start of the season, leaving the Bengals without a backup for Rudi....which is all anyone really needs to know. In short, the previous selection of Chris Perry has been a disaster that had to be addressed.

Moving on, the analysis caims that the Bengals would have been better served to sign a veteran QB to backup Palmer, but ignored how often they've tried, and what they've had to settle for. No, what the Bengals desperately needed is a backup who comes with a multi-year contract and the stability that document brings with it, and that dictated they bite the bullet and draft what they needed.

Finally, the analysis criticizes the lack of immediate impact the Bengals draft will provide and suggests that only one starter will emerge. Well, that's pure speculation that isn't consistent since the scouts quoted in the article were said to feel that Marvin White was underrated, and capabale of replacing Dexter Jackson sooner than most expect. And when you consider the fact that the Bengals only had two 1st day picks I've got to wonder how many starters it's reasonable to expect.

[Sandwedge]

Who's Scott Wright??? What are his football credentials?? My guess he is a fat ass that sets around his computer all day playing Mel Kiper Jr.

I'll trust Marvin over this hack anyday.... Irons was a solid pick and now the 5th rd pick for Rowe makes more sense... How many vet back ups do we have to go thru every year demanding more money or opting for FA...

[The PatternMaster]

I don't think the article was that far off base.

The Irons pick in the 2nd round surprised everyone, if your telling me you expected the Bengals to take a rb in the 2nd round of the draft then I'll tell you your a liar. Irons has the most to prove out of anyone in this year's draft class, imo.

The Jeff Rowe selection was also surprising for most people as many people thought they could have waited until a later round and still selected him or even taken a better prospect at that selection. Rowe has the physical tools to be successful in the NFL he just needs to be coached up, alot.

These draft grades are ridiculous though because the rookies haven't even played in a scrimmage yet, so it's a bit early to start with the evaulations. Any real draft evaulation that is credible would have to be done at the least 3 years down the road.

[membengal]

I don't mind the punditry confusion about the Bengals' draft, because they are not slandering the Bengals' picks in terms of talent, but instead slandering based on the picks allegedly not fitting a Bengals "need". But, here's the thing. Such drive-by views clearly misapprehend how badly the Bengals needed a quality secondary option behind Rudi. It misapprehends, as HoF pointed out, how counter-productive the merry-go-round of chaff behind CP has been, it misapprehends how badly secondary help was needed. Were a pundit to actually realize all that? The drive-by pundit might view the draft differently...

[HoosierCat]

I quit paying attention to the draft analysis after it became clear that the consensus was basically, "the Bengals had a good draft but get a 'C' because it wasn't 'sexy' enough." Maybe they should have drafted the Playmate of the Year or something...

[DesperateDerelict]

What has bothered me about the draft grades this year is they do not include Ahmad Brooks, an undervalued LB with obvious off-field liabilities. If he doesn't blow-up, he's a steal in round 3, and addresses the front 7 all the pundits say we missed.

If you remove a 1st day pick from a team, there's no way you can score higher than 'below average', even if you hit a homerun with every other pick.

[CarsonCity]

I quit paying attention to the draft analysis after it became clear that the consensus was basically, "the Bengals had a good draft but get a 'C' because it wasn't 'sexy' enough." Maybe they should have drafted the Playmate of the Year or something...

Exactly. This guy definitely fits that mold. In his opinion, the Bengals picked up top 10 talent at pick 18 (that alone should get them at least a B- grade) and goes on to sing the praises of Marvin White being the most underrated safety and possibly challenging DJax for a starting spot (yet they 'reached' in the 4th round???). He questions a couple of moves, which is to be expected, but then plants the obligatory "C".

Maybe I'm wearing orange and black glasses, but IMHO when you factor Ahmad Brooks into this draft as a 3rd round pick, I give it a B+/A- depending to what extent Kenny Irons fills Perry's role when CP was actually healthy.

[GregCook]

White has upside and could compete for Jackson's starting position this year yet the guy is a reach as a 4th round pick? Moron.

[SkinneymulleT]

After reading the article on bengals.com, the irons pick is looking alot bettter. Thats alot of milage on rudy since 04, alot of carries and he is older. How much farther before mule lies down? Irons will do alot to give us that break away speed and cut back ability. He will allow rudy to play at a high level for more than a few more years. Thus good pick even if he cant catch out of the backfield. We got KW for that.

http://www.bengals.com/news/news.asp?story_id=6087

[DC_Bengals_Fan]

After reading the article on bengals.com, the irons pick is looking alot bettter. Thats alot of milage on rudy since 04, alot of carries and he is older. How much farther before mule lies down? Irons will do alot to give us that break away speed and cut back ability. He will allow rudy to play at a high level for more than a few more years. Thus good pick even if he cant catch out of the backfield. We got KW for that.

http://www.bengals.com/news/news.asp?story_id=6087

It's still insane to me to spend two high picks at RB since we've had Rudi. At least it wasn't a 1st.

[HairOnFire]

Frankly, I don't concern myself very much with the letter grade given. In fact, it's pretty close to the one I gave.

My problem, such as it is, is the fundamental misunderstanding of why players like Irons and Rowe were selected. For example, the analysis suggests Kenny Irons is a poor choice to fill Chris Perry's 3rd down pass catching role, dooming him to be little more than Rudi's backup, yet never mentions the fact that Perry's inability to stay healthy has resulted in the Bengals having no player capable of assuming Rudi's every down role if Johnson were injured. And if that unfortunate event did occur how quickly do you think the same critics would point to the Bengals lack of depth?

Nor does the analysis mention the fact that Perry won't be available at the start of the season OR how the trio of backs might compliment each other after Perry returns. I believe Perry is under contract until 2009, and as a result is likely to remain a Bengal for some time yet despite the fact the Bengals can't count on him in any significant way. They'll simply take whatever they can get from a very talented player who seems to be unavailable more than half the time, right? So if Perry is likely to remain Bengals for one or more seasons then how wise is it to add the depth you need in the form of a RB who isn't a clone of what you already have?

In short, my biggest problem with draft analysis is how often it attempts to make a case for doing something else rather than accepting the picks that were made based upon their own merit.

[HairOnFire]

After reading the article on bengals.com, the irons pick is looking alot bettter. Thats alot of milage on rudy since 04, alot of carries and he is older. How much farther before mule lies down? Irons will do alot to give us that break away speed and cut back ability. He will allow rudy to play at a high level for more than a few more years. Thus good pick even if he cant catch out of the backfield. We got KW for that.

http://www.bengals.com/news/news.asp?story_id=6087

It's still insane to me to spend two high picks at RB since we've had Rudi. At least it wasn't a 1st.

But that's just the point, as Chris Perry has been an outright failure. Yeah, his talent is obvious, and it's easy to see why the Bengals wanted a player with his skill set, but the harsh reality is that due to his history of injury he doesn't even provide the Bengals with adequate depth. So instead of crossing their fingers and hoping that their luck will suddenly change the Bengals have taken the first step towards correcting a past mistake. At the least they've added the depth that Perry couldn't provide, and at the most they've added a complimentary player who can assume some of the workload that, if left unchecked, will eventually break Rudi.

[HoosierCat]

It's still insane to me to spend two high picks at RB since we've had Rudi.

Maybe, but the Bengals had little choice. Chris Perry's inability to stay on the field has been a big reason for a lot of the stuff that Bengals fans bitch & moan about.

For example: one complaint is that the bengals don't run the ball enough. Well, the two years in the last four they've run the ball least have been 2004 (437 attempts) and 2006 (435), when they featured Rudi + Watson. However, when they had the tag-team of Rudi/Dillon in '03 they ran 481 times, and with Rudi/Perry in 2005 they ran 459 times. Notably, that didn't cut into their passing game. In fact they had a four-year-high 538 passes in 2005, the same year they ran the second-most times in the Marvin era.

Lesson: you want the Bengals to run more? Then we need a better No. 2 back than Watson.

Another complaint: Rudi's YPA sucks. Reality: give him a good partner and it goes up significantly. In '03 with Dillon it was 4.5 yards/attempt. In '05 with Perry it was 4.3. His two years with Watson? 4.0 and 3.8.

Lesson: you want Rudi to be a better back? Then we need a better No. 2 back than Watson.

That's why Irons got drafted, and that's why I have no problem with the pick.

[DC_Bengals_Fan]

It's still insane to me to spend two high picks at RB since we've had Rudi.

Maybe, but the Bengals had little choice. Chris Perry's inability to stay on the field has been a big reason for a lot of the stuff that Bengals fans bitch & moan about.

For example: one complaint is that the bengals don't run the ball enough. Well, the two years in the last four they've run the ball least have been 2004 (437 attempts) and 2006 (435), when they featured Rudi + Watson. However, when they had the tag-team of Rudi/Dillon in '03 they ran 481 times, and with Rudi/Perry in 2005 they ran 459 times. Notably, that didn't cut into their passing game. In fact they had a four-year-high 538 passes in 2005, the same year they ran the second-most times in the Marvin era.

Lesson: you want the Bengals to run more? Then we need a better No. 2 back than Watson.

Another complaint: Rudi's YPA sucks. Reality: give him a good partner and it goes up significantly. In '03 with Dillon it was 4.5 yards/attempt. In '05 with Perry it was 4.3. His two years with Watson? 4.0 and 3.8.

Lesson: you want Rudi to be a better back? Then we need a better No. 2 back than Watson.

That's why Irons got drafted, and that's why I have no problem with the pick.

I'd be hasty about overanalyzing those statistics in the presence of a small sample size and confounding variables, notably the offensive line woes last year especially. I'd say that had more to do with Rudi's dropoff than anything.

In 2005 they ran the ball more with Rudi/Perry a whole 2% more often than in 2005 than Rudi/Watson in 2006 after accounting for the greater number of total plays in 2005. That's about one play every other game. Doesn't seem like justification for a second round pick to me, particularly when that pick seems to have zero skills that Rudi doesn't have. I've stated I'd wait until I see whether the kid can catch and run out of the backfield - if the article's right and he can't, it seems like a curious pick indeed.

[SkinneymulleT]

Another vote of confidence in the irons pick from pft.

http://profootballtalk.com/rumormill.htm

CHRIS PERRY: ODD MAN OUT IN CINCINNATI? by Michael David Smith

Two years ago Bengals running back Chris Perry looked like the perfect fit to be the change-of-pace back for starter Rudi Johnson. He logged 61 carries for 279 yards as Johnson's backup in 2005 and, although he hadn't earned the starting job, he appeared to justify the 2004 first-round pick the Bengals spent on him.

But Perry had knee and ankle surgery after the 2005 season, started the 2006 season on the physically unable to perform list, and broke his leg in November. Perry got just 10 carries last year, and Kenny Watson became the Bengals' No. 2 option at running back.

Now Perry is expected to go back on the PUP list to start the 2007 season, and as Kevin Goheen writes in the Cincinnati Post, the Bengals are counting on second-round pick Kenny Irons to do what Perry hasn't: Spell Johnson and stay healthy. Quarterback Carson Palmer says of Irons, "he's fast, he's quick, he's explosive - he's all of the things you want to see."

Palmer isn't the only one singing Irons' praises. Overall, the comments out of Cincinnati make it clear that the Bengals didn't draft Irons to have him sit on the bench. And as Ryan Wilson notes at the FanHouse, Irons will be the out-of-the-backfield pass-catching threat while Johnson will be the between-the-tackles mauler.

That doesn't leave much of a place for Perry. After just 73 carries, 337 yards and zero touchdowns, the Bengals' 2004 first-round pick is looking like the odd man out.

[Sandwedge]

It's still insane to me to spend two high picks at RB since we've had Rudi.

Maybe, but the Bengals had little choice. Chris Perry's inability to stay on the field has been a big reason for a lot of the stuff that Bengals fans bitch & moan about.

For example: one complaint is that the bengals don't run the ball enough. Well, the two years in the last four they've run the ball least have been 2004 (437 attempts) and 2006 (435), when they featured Rudi + Watson. However, when they had the tag-team of Rudi/Dillon in '03 they ran 481 times, and with Rudi/Perry in 2005 they ran 459 times. Notably, that didn't cut into their passing game. In fact they had a four-year-high 538 passes in 2005, the same year they ran the second-most times in the Marvin era.

Lesson: you want the Bengals to run more? Then we need a better No. 2 back than Watson.

Another complaint: Rudi's YPA sucks. Reality: give him a good partner and it goes up significantly. In '03 with Dillon it was 4.5 yards/attempt. In '05 with Perry it was 4.3. His two years with Watson? 4.0 and 3.8.

Lesson: you want Rudi to be a better back? Then we need a better No. 2 back than Watson.

That's why Irons got drafted, and that's why I have no problem with the pick.

I'd be hasty about overanalyzing those statistics in the presence of a small sample size and confounding variables, notably the offensive line woes last year especially. I'd say that had more to do with Rudi's dropoff than anything.

In 2005 they ran the ball more with Rudi/Perry a whole 2% more often than in 2005 than Rudi/Watson in 2006 after accounting for the greater number of total plays in 2005. That's about one play every other game. Doesn't seem like justification for a second round pick to me, particularly when that pick seems to have zero skills that Rudi doesn't have. I've stated I'd wait until I see whether the kid can catch and run out of the backfield - if the article's right and he can't, it seems like a curious pick indeed.

The kid can catch the football!! Auburn just doesn't throw the ball to their RBs to often... Sorry but we needed another RB, what if Rudi gets dinged?? We suredly cannot think Watson can carry that load by himself.... I like the fact that we can mix up defenses with the combo of Irons and Johnson and then bring in Watson or Irons on 3rd down...

[ShulaSteakhouse]

WHAT?? A pundit gave our Bengals' a C grade!! Blasphemy! They should always be singing the praises of the holy Marvin!

In any case, yes you could argue Rowan, Irons and White were reaches to some extent - ecspecially Rowan.

But I wil trust they know what they're doing and the offense as-is, has too many one dimensional star players any ways (Kelly, Rudi, Chad). I hope Irons helps there along with one of the TE's stepping up in the passing game.

Teams figured out this offense last year and it often became too predictable IMO. (run Rudi up the gut, throw deep to Chad, rinse and repeat). This seemed to hurt their ability to control the clock. As it stood they were too easy to defend against and they relied heavily on talent alone over scheme, depth and versatility.

[HairOnFire]

WHAT?? A pundit gave our Bengals' a C grade!! Blasphemy! They should always be singing the praises of the holy Marvin!

In any case, yes you could argue Rowan, Irons and White were reaches to some extent - ecspecially Rowan.

When debating whether a prospect was a reach or good value, well....shouldn't it be mandatory that the reviewer actually know the names of the draft choices?

[BlainThePain]

[MacD BengalFan]

The Irons pick in the 2nd round surprised everyone, if your telling me you expected the Bengals to take a rb in the 2nd round of the draft then I'll tell you your a liar. Irons has the most to prove out of anyone in this year's draft class, imo.

While it maybe a surprise to everyone that they took a running back in the 2nd round, it really didn't surprise me. They sent a message to Chris "I'm hurt" Perry that he will be waived if he can't play. Unlike Perry when he is healthy, Irons can take the punishment running in the middle as well as have the speed to get outside. Perry is a better outside runner but doesn't have the power to run in the middle. Again, this is when he is healty, and that is not very often.

[ShulaSteakhouse]

WHAT?? A pundit gave our Bengals' a C grade!! Blasphemy! They should always be singing the praises of the holy Marvin!

In any case, yes you could argue Rowan, Irons and White were reaches to some extent - ecspecially Rowan.

When debating whether a prospect was a reach or good value, well....shouldn't it be mandatory that the reviewer actually know the names of the draft choices?

Rowe, whatever, typo while at work. But, glad to see you still consistently skirt around the actual subject matter!

[HairOnFire]

WHAT?? A pundit gave our Bengals' a C grade!! Blasphemy! They should always be singing the praises of the holy Marvin!

In any case, yes you could argue Rowan, Irons and White were reaches to some extent - ecspecially Rowan.

When debating whether a prospect was a reach or good value, well....shouldn't it be mandatory that the reviewer actually know the names of the draft choices?

Rowe, whatever, typo while at work. But, glad to see you still consistently skirt around the actual subject matter!

Uhhh, it's not a typo if you spell the name the same way every single time. Besides, it speaks directly to your knowledge of the player and your ability to judge if he's a reach or not. As for whether or not I'm skirting around the subject matter, I've already given my opinion in several posts, so whose to say that I shouldn't be allowed to take an extra moment or two to make fun of your ignorance?

Please forgive the interruption, but it amuses me.

[HoosierCat]

I'd be hasty about overanalyzing those statistics in the presence of a small sample size and confounding variables, notably the offensive line woes last year especially. I'd say that had more to do with Rudi's dropoff than anything.

Maybe, but that doesn't explain the 2003 and 2004 differences. You can also look back further and find the same pattern with Corey Dillon. In his six years as the Bengals' bell-cow, his arguably best year (and definitely best in terms of YPA, 4.8) came in 1997, when the team also had a healthy Ki-Jana (621 combined yards in 13 games). His next two-best YPAs, 4.6, came in 1999 and 2000. In 1999 the No. 2 was Basnight, who put up 479 combined yards in 13 games, and in 2000 Brandon Bennett had his best-ever year as a Bengal, also putting up 492 combined yards.

They were also the years they rushed first (00), second (97) and third (99) most.

In all three worst years, Dillon was backed by Brandon Bennett, who had combined yardage totals of 396 (98), 382 (01) and 264 (02) in those years.

That's the kind of numbers Watson puts up. 332 in 2004 and 351 in 2006. That's versus Perry's 607 (in 14 games) in 2005 and Dillon's 612 (in 13 games) in 2003.

(Really, the only year the pattern has any real blip is 2002, when despite Bennett's horrible performance in the 2 hole, Dillon's YPA rose to 4.2 from 2001's 3.9 (his career low in Cincy). But even then 4.2 was Dillon's second-worst YPA while here.)

My takeaway continues to be that a good No. 2 makes your No. 1 back significantly better.