Compensatory Pick Guesstimate - 2007

[JPW]

There is a poster over on the KFFL boards (AdamJT13) who has a good track record, over a number of years, on projecting compensatory picks.

He posted his 2007 projections today:

LINK to the KFFL thread

Here are the projected picks for 2007, along with the compensatory player, their average contract value, their games played, their games started and other notes --

THIRD ROUND

San Diego (Drew Brees, $10.0 million, 16 Games Played/16 Games Started, Pro Bowl)

San Francisco (Julian Peterson , $7.714 million, 16/16, Pro Bowl)

Indianapolis (Edgerrin James, $7.5 million, 16/16)

FOURTH ROUND

Oakland (Charles Woodson, $5.576 million, 16/16)

Pittsburgh (Chris Hope, $5.098 million, 16/16)

Atlanta (Kevin Shaffer, $5.143 million, 16/16)

Baltimore (Anthony Weaver, $5.3 million, 15/15)

FIFTH ROUND

Indianapolis (David Thornton, $4.45 million, 16/13)

Baltimore (Ma'ake Kemoeatu, $4.6 million, 16/14)

Pittsburgh (Antwaan Randle El, $4.464 million, 16/16)

New England (David Givens, $4.8 million, 5/5, placed on IR)

SIXTH ROUND

Indianapolis (Larry Tripplett, $3.607 million, 16/16)

Baltimore (Chester Taylor, $3.5 million, 15/15)

Cincinnati (Jon Kitna, $2.875 million, 16/16)

Baltimore (Will Demps, $2.28 million, 16/16)

New England (Tom Ashworth, $2.6 million, 16/6)

Seattle (Marquand Manuel, $2.0 million, 16/16)

New England (Adam Vinatieri, $2.4 million, 13 GP)

SEVENTH ROUND

Tampa Bay (Dexter Jackson, $1.85 million, 12/11)

San Diego (Justin Peelle, $1.5 million, 15/10)

Green Bay (Craig Nall, $1.423 million, 0/0)

Atlanta (Barry Stokes, $1.092 million, 11/11)

St. Louis (Rex Tucker, $1.217 million, 6/5, placed on IR)

San Diego (Reche Caldwell, $1.006 million, 16/14)

Tampa Bay (Jameel Cook, $1.020 million, 12/6)

Kansas City (Tony Richardson, $1.078 million, 9/7)

New England (Tim Dwight, $1.063 million, 9/2, placed on IR)

San Francisco (Anthony Clement, $750,000, 16/16)

St. Louis (Jamie Martin, $1.005 million, 16/0)

Jacksonville (Kenny Wright, $750,000, 16/9)

Minnesota (Raonall Smith, $755,000, 16/0)

Atlanta (Kevin McCadam, $765,000, 16/0)

Here are the qualifying players lost and signed (in order of value) for the 16 teams that I'm projecting will receive true comp picks --

ATLANTA

Lost -- Kevin Shaffer, Barry Stokes, Kevin McCadam.

Signed -- None.

BALTIMORE

Lost -- Anthony Weaver, Ma'ake Kemoeatu, Chester Taylor, Will Demps, Dave Zastudil, Anthony Wright.

Signed -- Justin Bannan, Corey Ivy.

CINCINNATI

Lost -- Jon Kitna, Matt Schobel, Nate Webster.

Signed -- Dexter Jackson, Anthony Wright.

GREEN BAY

Lost -- Mike Flanagan, Ryan Longwell, Paris Lenon, Craig Nall, Grey Ruegamer.

Signed -- Charles Woodson, Ryan Pickett, Marquand Manuel.

INDIANAPOLIS

Lost -- Edgerrin James, David Thornton, Larry Tripplett, Mike Vanderjagt.

Signed -- Adam Vinatieri.

JACKSONVILLE

Lost -- Akin Ayodele, Jamie Winborn, Ephraim Salaam, Kenny Wright.

Signed -- Brian Williams, Nick Greisen, Stockar McDougle.

KANSAS CITY

Lost -- Todd Collins, Tony Richardson.

Signed -- Ron Edwards.

MINNESOTA

Lost -- Brian Williams, Corey Chavous, Melvin Fowler, Lance Johnstone, Michael Bennett, Raonall Smith.

Signed -- Steve Hutchinson, Ben Leber, Chester Taylor, Ryan Longwell, Tony Richardson.

NEW ENGLAND

Lost -- David Givens, Tom Ashworth, Adam Vinatieri, Andre Davis, Tim Dwight, Christian Fauria, Matt Chatham.

Signed -- Reche Caldwell, Mel Mitchell.

OAKLAND

Lost -- Charles Woodson, Renaldo Hill.

Signed -- Lance Johnstone.

PITTSBURGH

Lost -- Chris Hope, Antwaan Randle El, Kimo Van Oelhoffen.

Signed -- Ryan Clark.

SAN DIEGO

Lost -- Drew Brees, Ben Leber, Justin Peelle, Reche Caldwell, Jamar Fletcher.

Signed -- Marlon McCree, Aaron Shea.

SAN FRANCISCO

Lost -- Julian Peterson, Andre Carter, Anthony Clement.

Signed -- Antonio Bryant.

SEATTLE

Lost -- Steve Hutchinson, Joe Jurevicius, Marquand Manuel, Ryan Hannam.

Signed -- Julian Peterson, Tom Ashworth, Russell Davis.

ST. LOUIS

Lost -- Adam Archuleta, Ryan Pickett, Damione Lewis, Rex Tucker, Jamie Martin, Tyoka Jackson.

Signed -- Will Witherspoon, Corey Chavous, Fakhir Brown, Todd Steussie, Raonall Smith.

TAMPA BAY

Lost -- Dexter Jackson, Jameel Cook, Todd Steussie.

Signed -- Jamie Winborn.

Also this year, a player signed for less than a qualifying salary but renegotiated for a higher salary during the season and could now qualify. Nate Webster originally signed a one-year contract for $585,000 with Denver, but during the regular season, he renegotiated that to a three-year deal. I used his partial $585,000 salary and the remaining value of his three-year deal to determine that his final contract value is $928,000 per season, which would mean he qualifies. But again, I could be wrong.

If Nate Webster does not qualify, Cincinnati would not get a comp pick for Jon Kitna, and Green Bay would get the final true seventh-round comp pick for Grey Ruegamer, as long as he qualifies.

[HoosierCat]

Wow. Now there's a guy with a lot of free time on his hands. But some great stuff.

If I'm reading his list of FAs lost/gained right, then re-signing your own FAs doesn't appear to count against you regarding losses, i.e. re-signing R. Kelly won't nullify losing Kase. So that would put us on course for a 3rd (Steiny), a 6th (Kase) and two sevenths (Wilkins and Stewart) next year. Tho Step could knock one of those sevenths out if he qualifies. Looks like we could get anywhere from a 4th to nothing for Washington, depending on whether they look at real or bullcrap money.

Nice find, jpw.

[Kazkal]

Well we lack a 3rd this year but hey 2 next year !

[Stripes]

I'd be happy with a free 6th rounder.

[TJJackson]

The chart presented here appears to be entirely salary based - and every source I have read says that salary is a big part of it, but performance is factored in as well

I think the fact that Kitna threw for 4000 yards on a fairly bad offense will factor into the decision, and I could see - maybe - the pick being as high as a 4. a 5th is more likely, imho.

Again, we'll see, soon enough.

[JPW]

The chart presented here appears to be entirely salary based - and every source I have read says that salary is a big part of it, but performance is factored in as well

I think the fact that Kitna threw for 4000 yards on a fairly bad offense will factor into the decision, and I could see - maybe - the pick being as high as a 4. a 5th is more likely, imho.

Again, we'll see, soon enough.

This AdamJT13 guy sure thinks that it goes mostly by salary.

Compensatory free agents are determined by a secret formula based on salary, playing time and postseason honors.

Although the formula has never been revealed, by studying the compensatory picks that have been awarded since they began in 1993, I've determined that the primary factor in the value of the picks awarded appears to be the average annual value of the contract the player signed with his new team, with an adjustment for playing time and a smaller adjustment for postseason honors.

Of course he doesn't "know" the formula either so he could be wrong and he does say that this year is the most difficult one to project since his first attempt in 1998.

But I do think that 25 out of 32 exactly correct and 29 out of 32 within one round gives him a pretty good track record at projecting these picks.

In my past four projections, I've averaged 25.0 out of 32 exactly correct (going to the correct team in the correct round) and have been off by only one round on an average of 4.0 more.

However, I'm not expecting to be that successful this year. For several reasons, these projections were the most difficult since my first attempt in 1998.

I will say this, he was much later in posting his projections this year than in past years and you are exactly right in that we will see soon enough.

If I am not mistaken the picks will be announced next week.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

But just for kicks ...

Here are the guy's projections from last year.

LINK ...

Here are the projected picks (2006), along with the compensatory player, their games played/started and their average contract value –

THIRD ROUND

N.Y. Jets (LaMont Jordan, $5.51 million, 14 GP/14 GS)

FOURTH ROUND

Denver (Reggie Hayward, $5.0 million, 15/15)

Pittsburgh (Kendrell Bell, $4.974 million, 16/14)

Baltimore (Gary Baxter, $5.004 million, 5/5 IR)

Pittsburgh (Plaxico Burress, $4.167 million, 16/15)

Baltimore (Edgerton Hartwell, $4.375 million, 5/5 IR)

FIFTH ROUND

Philadelphia (Derrick Burgess, $3.491 million, 16/12, Pro Bowl)

Green Bay (Marco Rivera, $3.80 million, 14/14)

Pittsburgh (Oliver Ross, $3.50 million, 12/11)

Tampa Bay (Dwight Smith, $3.04 million, 15/15)

Tennessee (Andre Dyson, $3.501 million, 10/6)

Baltimore (Casey Rabach, $2.825 million, 16/16)

SIXTH ROUND

Philadelphia (Jermane Mayberry, $3.009 million, 11/8)

New England (David Patten, $2.60 million, 9/7 IR)

New England (Joe Andruzzi, $2.194 million, 13/13)

Indianapolis (Rick DeMulling, $2.275 million, 14/5)

SEVENTH ROUND

Baltimore (Bennie Anderson, $1.706 million, 16/15)

Tampa Bay (Chartric Darby, $1.0 million, 14/14)

St. Louis (Tommy Polley, $800,000, 16/15)

St. Louis (Matt Lehr, $710,000, 15/15)

Tampa Bay (Keith Burns, $790,000, 15/1)

Detroit (Stockar McDougle, $750,000, (8/2)

Buffalo (net value; lost $9.49 million, 19/19, IR ; signed $3.409 million, 26/23)

Seattle (net value; lost $12.167 million, 47/43; signed $7.001 million, 40/35)

Washington (net value; lost $10.075 million, 24/21; signed $5.425 million, 25/23 IR)

Houston (non-compensatory)

New Orleans (non-compensatory)

Green Bay (non-compensatory)

San Francisco (non-compensatory)

Oakland (non-compensatory)

Tennessee (non-compensatory)

New York Jets (non-compensatory)

Eleven of the comp picks I’ve projected appear to be on the borderline between two rounds, or at least close to the borderline. So it wouldn’t surprise me if the comp pick for Jordan is in the fourth round; if the comp picks for Baxter, Hayward and Bell are in the third round; if the comp pick for Rivera is in the fourth round; if the comp picks for Smith, Dyson and Rabach are in the sixth round; if the comp picks for Mayberry and Patten are in the fifth round; or if the comp pick for Anderson is in the sixth round.

Continued ...

Here are the qualifying players lost and signed (in order of value) for the 15 teams that I’m projecting will receive true comp picks –

BALTIMORE

Lost – Gary Baxter, Edgerton Hartwell, Casey Rabach, Bennie Anderson, Travis Taylor, Marques Douglas.

Signed – Keydrick Vincent, Tommy Polley.

BUFFALO

Lost – Jonas Jennings, Pat Williams.

Signed – Bennie Anderson, Kelly Holcomb.

DENVER

Lost – Reggie Hayward, Kenoy Kennedy, Donnie Spragan.

Signed – Stephen Alexander, Keith Burns.

DETROIT

Lost – Stephen Alexander, Mike McMahon, Stockar McDougle.

Signed – Kenoy Kennedy, Rick DeMulling.

GREEN BAY

Lost – Marco Rivera, Bhawoh Jue.

Signed – Adrian Klemm.

INDIANAPOLIS

Lost – Rick DeMulling.

Signed – none.

NEW ENGLAND

Lost – David Patten, Joe Andruzzi, Adrian Klemm.

Signed – Monty Beisel.

N.Y. JETS

Lost – LaMont Jordan, Kareem McKenzie, Jason Ferguson, Anthony Becht.

Signed – Derrick Blaylock, Lance Legree, Barry Gardner.

PHILADELPHIA

Lost – Derrick Burgess, Jermane Mayberry, Ike Reese.

Signed – Mike McMahon.

PITTSBURGH

Lost – Kendrell Bell, Plaxico Burress, Oliver Ross, Keydrick Vincent.

Signed – Cedrick Wilson.

SEATTLE

Lost – Ken Lucas, Chike Okeafor, Orlando Huff.

Signed – Andre Dyson, Bryce Fisher, Chartric Darby.

ST. LOUIS

Lost – Bryce Fisher, Tommy Polley, Matt Lehr.

Signed – Chris Claiborne.

TAMPA BAY

Lost – Dwight Smith, Cosey Coleman, Chartric Darby, Keith Burns.

Signed – Anthony Becht.

TENNESSEE

Lost – Andre Dyson, Shad Meier.

Signed – Kyle Vanden Bosch.

WASHINGTON

Lost – Fred Smoot, Antonio Pierce.

Signed – Casey Rabach, David Patten.

And here are the actual 2006 compensatory draft picks that were awarded.

LINK to Draft Insiders' Digest ...

The following ‘06 draft picks have been determined by the NFL Management Council

3rd Round

3 33-97 New York Jets

4th Round

4 33-130 Denver

4 34-131 Pittsburgh

4 35-132 Baltimore

4 36-133 Pittsburgh

5th Round

5 33-165 Green Bay

5 34-166 Baltimore

5 35-167 Pittsburgh

5 36-168 Philadelphia

5 37-169 Tennessee

6th Round

6 33-202 Tampa Bay

6 34-203 Baltimore

6 35-204 Philadelphia

6 36-205 New England

6 37-206 New England

6 38-207 Indianapolis

6 39-208 Baltimore

7th Round

7 33-241 Tampa Bay

7 34-242 St. Louis

7 35-243 St. Louis

7 36-244 Tampa Bay

7 37-245 Tennessee

7 38-246 Tennessee

7 39-247 Detroit

7 40-248 Buffalo

7 41-249 Seattle

7 42-250 Washington

7 43-251 Houston

7 44-252 New Orleans

7 45-253 Green Bay

7 46-254 San Francisco

7 47-255 Oakland

Having said all of that ...

I would be happy to get an extra 6th but I would certainly be much happier with an extra 4th.

So let's hope that you are right

[JPW]

Compensatory draft picks for 2007 :

3-96 San Diego

3-97 San Francisco

3-98 Indianapolis

3-99 Oakland

4-132 Pittsburgh

4-133 Atlanta

4-134 Baltimore

4-135 San Francisco

4-136 Indianapolis

4-137 Baltimore

5-170 Pittsburgh

5-171 New England

5-172 San Diego

5-173 Indianapolis

5-174 Baltimore

6-207 Baltimore

6-208 New England

6-209 New England

6-210 Seattle

7-243 Green Bay

7-244 Atlanta

7-245 Tampa Bay

7-246 Tampa Bay

7-247 New England

7-248 St. Louis

7-249 St. Louis

7-250 New York Giants

7-251 Jacksonville

7-252 Jacksonville

7-253 Cincinnati

7-254 Oakland

7-255 Detroit.

[jditty47]

well that guy was wrong, cuz webster didnt count and they still got a 7th.

[JPW]

well that guy was wrong, cuz webster didnt count and they still got a 7th.

Not really.

It is possible for a team to get a compensatory pick even if it doesn't suffer a net loss of qualifying free agents, although those kind of comp picks come at the end of the seventh round, after the normal comp picks and before the non-compensatory picks that are added if fewer than 32 comp picks are awarded. There have been 11 of these "net value" type of comp picks awarded, and in each case, the combined value of the free agents lost was significantly higher than the combined value of the free agents signed. In all 11 cases, those teams lost the same number of qualifying free agents as they signed. No team has ever been awarded a comp pick after signing more qualifying free agents than they lost, no matter how significant the difference in combined value.

[jditty47]

If Nate Webster does not qualify, Cincinnati would not get a comp pick for Jon Kitna, and Green Bay would get the final true seventh-round comp pick for Grey Ruegamer, as long as he qualifies.