Bengals vs Colts

[HoosierCat]

Toss-up? Maybe, at best.

Take it up with Vegas, not moi. Line is Indy by 3. Home field advantage is all the Ponies are getting.

Let the Colts be angry and embarassed. Maybe it helps. OTOH, maybe they press, screw up a couple times, and it turns to frustration and mistakes.

Bengals have been pretty focused for the lat four weeks, too, ever since SD beat the crap out of them in the second half. If they sudenly lose their way here, I'll be surprised.

[SteelerFan87]

The Colts' game against the Jags displayed the WORST tackling I have ever seen. However, after losing 2 games in a row, and being totally embarassed, I think the Colts will come out mad and determined to play better, kind of like how they did against the Steelers in the regular season last year. If not, I think Dungy's head explodes.

As for the Colts' offense, it's much better than it looked against Jacksonville. Remember, the Jags' D is pretty damn good, especially when they're in a big game against a rival. Sorry Bengals, but you don't have that kind of defense. Manning will put up alot of points, like he always does, probably resulting in a very close game. It all comes down to which Colts D shows up. The one that got pummelled by the Jags, or the one that can occasionally make a statement.

[duus]

The Colts' game against the Jags displayed the WORST tackling I have ever seen. However, after losing 2 games in a row, and being totally embarassed, I think the Colts will come out mad and determined to play better, kind of like how they did against the Steelers in the regular season last year. If not, I think Dungy's head explodes.

As for the Colts' offense, it's much better than it looked against Jacksonville. Remember, the Jags' D is pretty damn good, especially when they're in a big game against a rival. Sorry Bengals, but you don't have that kind of defense. Manning will put up alot of points, like he always does, probably resulting in a very close game. It all comes down to which Colts D shows up. The one that got pummelled by the Jags, or the one that can occasionally make a statement.

Every indication is you could very well be correct about all that, BUT ... given your history of game outcome predictions on this board, I say we now look real good in this one!

[HoosierCat]

Shootout revisited...last season's fireworks show:

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/recap/NFL_20051120_IND@CIN

Looking back, I can only note a couple things. First, last year's Indy defense was playing far better and had more starters active, than this year's. Coming into the game I beieve they hadn't given up more than 3 TDs in a game. Palmer and the Bengals promptly shelled them. Second, our D is playing much better right now than they were at any point last season, and the Colts O has only managed to find the "on" button once in the last five weeks, scoring 44 against Philly. The other 4 games they haven't scored more than 17.

Even if the Colts find their mojo, all I think that does is make it another point-fest and it'll be the last team with the ball that wins. If the Ponies continue to sputter, Cincy wins going away.

[duus]

Shootout revisited...last season's fireworks show:

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/recap/NFL_20051120_IND@CIN

Looking back, I can only note a couple things. First, last year's Indy defense was playing far better and had more starters active, than this year's. Coming into the game I beieve they hadn't given up more than 3 TDs in a game. Palmer and the Bengals promptly shelled them. Second, our D is playing much better right now than they were at any point last season, and the Colts O has only managed to find the "on" button once in the last five weeks, scoring 44 against Philly. The other 4 games they haven't scored more than 17.

Even if the Colts find their mojo, all I think that does is make it another point-fest and it'll be the last team with the ball that wins. If the Ponies continue to sputter, Cincy wins going away.

I was there last year. Sunday before Thanksgiving. I actually drove to Indy from Pissburgh and picked up a buddy of mine and we headed to the game. Obviously, he's a big Colts/Manning fan. Man, did we have a great time. That was just an absolutely incredible game. Hated the outcome, but had a good time nonetheless. I think this is our turn now ... although he didn't come through with tickets for me this time! No biggie ... hard to get the Monday Night game tickets.

(makes me think how I could probably invite any fan to a game ... EXCEPT Urine fans ... go figure)

[Whur CHad At?]

We can win, if:

1.Run the ball more than 30 times

2. Play great defensive

3. Don't let Tory James guard Harrison or Wayne

[ShulaSteakhouse]

Reason for #3 WR's doing so well? Keiwan Ratliff blows chunks.

It will be nice to see Deltha, Tory and JJ on the field at the same time - they'll need all 3 Monday (if Deltha can stay sober and is activated/healed).

I think Peko's hitting the rookie wall a bit now too - Shaun Smith has stepped up nicely as has Adams.

It's time for Carson to assert himself as the #1 QB in the league with a stellar performance Monday night. Although Brees is putting up awfully gawdy #'s right now.

I suspect the Indy defense will do what the Bengals' defense did after the San Diego debacle - and step it up for the final push - they aren't going to be able to run Rudi 40 times Monday - without Braham or Levi this 0-line doesn't get much of a push on running plays.

Rudi just needs to be effective enough to keep Peyton off the field and let Carson dictate to the defense and keep them honest as always.

If the Bengals' offense would quit creating turnovers and making stupid mistakes - they'd blow just about every team out they play. But, this is the NFL and that doesn't happen for anyone anymore - everyone else is too good.

[HoosierCat]

Some good observations IMHO from PFW today...

http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/Featu...rocki121106.htm

Colts wear down in December again

By Nolan Nawrocki

Dec. 11, 2006

It has been nearly 15 years since a defense got mauled the way the Colts did vs. Jacksonville on the ground, giving up an incredible 375 yards, including 251 in the first half alone. Lanes were regularly opened that the Jaguars could have driven a truck through.

The Colts’ problems were numerous. One, they were without defensive starters at every level of the defense. The unit was a shell of itself, and while no team can ever truly prevent injuries, Colts president Bill Polian has done himself no favors in the draft, continuing to build with small players such as Bob Sanders, Mike Doss and Robert Mathis, to name just a few currently hobbled with injuries. Early in this game, Marlin Jackson had to be replaced by Dexter Reid, Antoine Bethea by Matt Giordano, and Gilbert Gardner by Rocky Boiman. It made a difference.

Two, small players typically play a small man’s game and stray from contact, and that is exactly what the Colts did, as they continued to miss tackle after tackle and were washed out of gaps. WLB Cato June, a player who evaluators were surprised earned Pro Bowl honors a year ago, has been playing like anything but a Pro Bowler, running under blocks and taking himself right out of plays, avoiding contact and missing too many tackles. Both of Maurice Jones-Drew’s touchdowns, of 18 and 48 yards, came up the middle and should have been stopped for very short gains. Jones-Drew was in June’s grasp on both runs, but instead of facing him up, June tried to lasso him from the side, avoiding direct contact, and Jones powered through his grasp with ease. But June was not the only one to blame. As a group, the Colts missed way too many tackles.

The Colts were 13-0 last year before dropping the next two to the Chargers and Seahawks and barely escaping Arizona with a 17-13 win. Tony Dungy missed one game, and some starters were resting, which could have challenged the integrity of the losses. But this year, the Colts have now dropped three of the last four and appear to be wearing down sooner, beginning with their first loss to Dallas on Nov. 19.

Coincidentally, it is Bill Parcells who has long held the scouting philosophy that smaller players wear down in November and December. And he showed why he believes that, supplying the game plan for Tennessee and Jacksonville to follow against the Colts. The key to beating to the Colts is playing physical, running right at them and establishing a lead early. When their offense is not allowed to dictate the tempo, the Colts are forced to play a different game.

[agreen_112]

Is this a Monday Night game? Can't remember and don't feel like looking it up...

[HoosierCat]

Is this a Monday Night game? Can't remember and don't feel like looking it up...

Yup.

CHFF goes off on Indy...again

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Artic...&Category=1

The Colts are frauds

Whenever we think of Colts fans and their obvious hatred of the Cold, Hard Football Facts, we think of our favorite philosopher, Col. Jessep from A Few Good Men:

"You can’t handle the truth!”

 

Most Colts fans despise this site. They mock its analysis. They declare it “baised.” No matter how flawed their team may be, they simply don’t want to hear it. They'd rather go through life happy and ignorant, clinging to the belief that the flaws on their team simply do not exist. They'd rather shoot the messenger, even if we're only here to help them see the light.

 

Instead of sending angry e-mails to the Cold, Hard Football Facts, Colts fans should be printing our stories and mailing them to Bill Polian, demanding that he make an effort to build a real team. They should demand changes from their organization. They should not demand blind Colts worship from the Cold, Hard Football Facts. They should be celebrating the Cold, Hard Football Facts as the secret key that could unlock their hopes and dreams of a Super Bowl championship.

 

Instead, they prefer the stupidity of ignoring us.

 

The truth is that the Colts are an incomplete team. They’re a fair-weather team. They’re a team that beats up weak teams at home or early in the season. They’re a team that wilts late in the season – especially on the road.

 

We saw it again yesterday in an embarrassing 44-17 loss to Jacksonville. It’s like gridiron Groundhog Day: It’s the same story year after year. Nothing ever changes. Colts management sees no reason to change. Colts fans seem content with the status quo.

 

It's obvious to everyone else that the Indy organizatioon needs a physical and philisophical makeover. The proof is in the late-season holiday pudding: Over the last two seasons, the Colts are 21-1 from September to November. They’re 3-5 in December and January. What more do you need to know?

 

Oh, here’s something …

 

Dwight Freeney can’t play

Dwight Freeney, the bloodied and black-eyed face of the humiliated Indy defense, has been a no-show this season – just like he was last year when he miraculously earned a spot in the Pro Bowl. 

 

We first discussed the magic missing Freeney last season – and we’re waiting for the “pundits” to finally get on board.

His inability to produce is obvious to anyone who watches Indy play. He's supposed to be a pass-rushing specialist. But he has just 2.5 sacks this year and has failed to get to the quarterback in 10 of 13 games. His patented upfield pass rush has become a huge liability against the run, as opponents routinely run off-tackle, right at the spot he vacated. He takes himself out of the play, often with little effort from the offense to move him by force.

 

As a result, he has registered just 55 total tackles – solos and assists – over the last two seasons. That's it, folks: 29 games, 55 tackles. We had high school girlfriends who played tougher defense.

 

Indy supporters have it stuck in their head that Freeney’s some sort of dominant, game-changing defensive lineman. These people are blinded by our mortal enemy, hype. These people read stories in which people tell them that Freeney is a great player and they believe it, despite all the evidence and all the Cold, Hard Football Facts to the contrary. These people are idiots.

 

If he were a game-changer, the Colts wouldn’t be mired with the worst run defense in the history of football.

 

The Jaguars yesterday shredded the Indy defense for 375 yards on the ground. It’s the second-highest rush total since the AFL-NFL merger (the Bengals rushed for 407 yards on Denver in 2000).

 

Indy is now dead last in every single run-defense category: yards (2,294), yards per game (176.5), average per carry (5.45), rush attempts against (421) and touchdowns allowed (17).

 

Teams with dominant defensive ends don’t have arguably the worst rush defense in NFL history. As we reported earlier this season, you have to look long and hard through the dusty pages of NFL history to find a team that's been more inept against the run.

[HoosierCat]

WR Brandon Stokley reportedly done for the year, ruptured ACL...

http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/arti...ORTS03/61211028

[Tasher]

WR Brandon Stokley reportedly done for the year, ruptured ACL...

http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/arti...ORTS03/61211028

In addition to Stokley...

Other Colts on IR or PUP

Doss, Mike DB

Goddard, Johnathan DE

Mungro, James RB

Reagor, Montae DT

Simon, Corey

Along with Last Week's Injury Report:

Bethea, Antoine Defensive Back Questionable

Clark, Dallas Tight End Out

Diem, Ryan Offensive Tackle Questionable

Dorsey, DeDe Running Back Questionable

Johnson, Charlie Offensive Tackle Questionable

Mathis, Robert Defensive End Questionable

O'Neil, Keith Linebacker Questionable

Sanders, Bob Defensive Back Questionable

B.Sanders and D.Clark did not play. Bethea left the game and did not return.

[DC_Bengals_Fan]

I think Peko's hitting the rookie wall a bit now too - Shaun Smith has stepped up nicely as has Adams.

OT, but what's wrong with Peko? I only get to see about half the games, haven't seen the Somoafro much lately but didn't know why. Just the 16 game season wearing him out?

[derekshank]

Everyone everywhere is focusing on how bad the Colts defense played against Jacksonville. Let's assume they don't improve even a little bit... do you expect their offense to continue to play poorly? There is no way around it... their offense was equally disappointing yesterday, scoring only 17 points, and having WR's drop TD passes left and right.

With as bad as that defense played, if the WR's played as well as they usually do, that game would have been much more competitive. I doubt we'll see them play that poorly again (and lets face it... our defense is not the Jaguars).

The Colts offense is scoring 29.3 pts/game at home, but only 23.7 pts/game on the road. They are clearly a better team at home than on the road... and I'm guessing we'll continue seeing that on Monday night. I'm expecting another classic shootout (a score similar to the Chargers game), with the Bengals coming up just short. (That's okay though... we'll get them in the playoffs).

[HoosierCat]

Everyone everywhere is focusing on how bad the Colts defense played against Jacksonville. Let's assume they don't improve even a little bit... do you expect their offense to continue to play poorly?

Uh, yeah, I do. Go look at their last five games. They've put up points once, against Philly. They haven't topped 17 points in any other game. But don't believe me, go read through the coltfreaks.com boards. There are plenty of posters there wondering WTF happened to their O.

Could they come back to life? Sure. But their sputtering offense is hardly a fluke thing that just happened last week.

[derekshank]

Everyone everywhere is focusing on how bad the Colts defense played against Jacksonville. Let's assume they don't improve even a little bit... do you expect their offense to continue to play poorly?

Uh, yeah, I do. Go look at their last five games. They've put up points once, against Philly. They haven't topped 17 points in any other game. But don't believe me, go read through the coltfreaks.com boards. There are plenty of posters there wondering WTF happened to their O.

Could they come back to life? Sure. But their sputtering offense is hardly a fluke thing that just happened last week.

In the last 5 games the Colts have scored 17, 14, 45, 17, and 17 (22 pts/game).

We had a similar streak of 5 games where we scored 13, 13, 17, 27, and 20 (18 pts/game). Since that point we've scored less than 27 only once (in the 13-7 victory over the Ravens).

There's nothing like playing the 32nd ranked pass defense to break out of a funk. Merry Christmas Colts.

[AGrizzlyBaer]

man both there now starting safteys are hurt. and both d-ends are hurting too.

[HoosierCat]

Everyone everywhere is focusing on how bad the Colts defense played against Jacksonville. Let's assume they don't improve even a little bit... do you expect their offense to continue to play poorly?

Uh, yeah, I do. Go look at their last five games. They've put up points once, against Philly. They haven't topped 17 points in any other game. But don't believe me, go read through the coltfreaks.com boards. There are plenty of posters there wondering WTF happened to their O.

Could they come back to life? Sure. But their sputtering offense is hardly a fluke thing that just happened last week.

In the last 5 games the Colts have scored 17, 14, 45, 17, and 17 (22 pts/game).

We had a similar streak of 5 games where we scored 13, 13, 17, 27, and 20 (18 pts/game). Since that point we've scored less than 27 only once (in the 13-7 victory over the Ravens).

There's nothing like playing the 32nd ranked pass defense to break out of a funk. Merry Christmas Colts.

You should send me your address. There was a coupon for Depends in my paper this weekend, and at the rate you're crapping your shorts over this game, you're clearly going to need a jumbo-sized box.

Funny thing about the last five weeks and the Colts: guess which team they played had the highest-ranked pass D? (Hint: it was the one that coughed up more than 17 points). The 25th-ranked pass D, Tennesse, held them to 17; the 19th, Dallas, to 14.

[derekshank]

You should send me your address. There was a coupon for Depends in my paper this weekend, and at the rate you're crapping your shorts over this game, you're clearly going to need a jumbo-sized box.

Funny thing about the last five weeks and the Colts: guess which team they played had the highest-ranked pass D? (Hint: it was the one that coughed up more than 17 points). The 25th-ranked pass D, Tennesse, held them to 17; the 19th, Dallas, to 14.

I think that we will lose a close one to a 10-3 team whose greatest strength happens to be our greatest weakness. I'm not sure if that constitutes me "crapping my shorts." But thanks for the tip... I'll check for the coupon.

Look, I have a lot more confidence in this game than I did 3 weeks ago... but I just think that winning streaks are hard to maintain. It's really hard to win 4 in a row. I don't think I'm being pessimistic to think that 5 in a row is a little less than likely.

We're facing the Colts (who will have something to prove) on prime time, in Indy (where they've played very well) after our defense has gotten used to inferior competition. I won't be shocked if we pull out the win. In fact, right now we're the better team. We're one of the hottest in the NFL... but what will surprise me is if their offense doesn't get back on track against us.

[HoosierCat]

Look, I have a lot more confidence in this game than I did 3 weeks ago... but I just think that winning streaks are hard to maintain. It's really hard to win 4 in a row. I don't think I'm being pessimistic to think that 5 in a row is a little less than likely.

We're facing the Colts (who will have something to prove) on prime time, in Indy (where they've played very well) after our defense has gotten used to inferior competition. I won't be shocked if we pull out the win. In fact, right now we're the better team. We're one of the hottest in the NFL... but what will surprise me is if their offense doesn't get back on track against us.

Like I said before, I think the Bengals have at least a 50/50 chance. At least. As for the whole prime time/something to prove thing, the Bengals have been playing well under the big lights, for the most part, in the Marvin era, and if you think the Indy D has something to prove, I'm sure Marvin will be showing plenty of highlights from last year's pointfest to our D. I don't think this game will be a walkover, but I don't see any reason to go into it thinking that a loss is more likely than a win.

[jjakq27]

Based on a few of the post-game comments yesterday, I get the feeling that a more than a few guys circled this game when the schedule came out. I think the Begnals have as much at stake as the Colts if not more.

[Kazkal]

Colts want a bye they need winout if they want 2 homefield games they need win out with charger loss....they have plenty to play for.

[SteelerFan87]

Colts want a bye they need winout if they want 2 homefield games they need win out with charger loss....they have plenty to play for.

Which pretty much means, if the Colts want to have any chance of going far in the playoffs, they need to win out and have the Chargers lose.

[Tasher]

Wow, all the media is talking about how small the Colts are in the front seven, but wow!

Looking at the Colts' depth chart:

end to end 245, 300, 274, 268 (2nd string 271, 275, 288, 257)

backers 228, 235, 227 (236, 243, 240)

Just for comparison, the Bengals go:

end to end 304, 350(listed), 297, 275 (2nd 265, 325, 319, 295)

backers 245, 240, 228 (259, 225)

Bengals' O-Line: 339, 290, 305, 345, 340

Whoa Nellie!

Run, Rudi, Run!

[derekshank]

Wow, all the media is talking about how small the Colts are in the front seven, but wow!

Looking at the Colts' depth chart:

end to end 245, 300, 274, 268 (2nd string 271, 275, 288, 257)

backers 228, 235, 227 (236, 243, 240)

Just for comparison, the Bengals go:

end to end 304, 350(listed), 297, 275 (2nd 265, 325, 319, 295)

backers 245, 240, 228 (259, 225)

I'm not sure what depth chart you're looking at for the Bengals... but our starting LB's are very small too. Caleb Miller (not Brian Simmons) is our starting MLB, and is the smallest in the league at 225 lbs. Landon Johnson is playing the weak side listed at 228 lbs. Jeanty is a good size at 245 lbs... but even that's not huge for a SSLB (Pollack is 10 lbs heavier than that).

Thankfully our D-Line is huge... and more than makes up for it (a luxury the Colts lack at this point) Sam Adams is way more than 350 (believe it. I've seen him in person) - and 3 of our 4 D-Line starters right at or over 300.. not to mention the 300+ lb depth in Peko and S. Smith.

We were incredibly small on the D-Line last year starting B-Rob and Thornton in the middle, with Geathers and J. Smith on the ends. We were too small, and got ran on. We've beefed that up about 100 lbs, and are suddenly a stout run defense. Funny how simple the game of football can be sometimes, isn't it?

I'll bet the Colts go looking for the biggest, fattest, stop-gap, over the hill DT in the league in the off-season, just like we did. It works wonders.