Playoff Possiblities and Scenarios

[HoosierCat]

Some "expert" predictions on the AFC WC race are trickling in. Over at espn, Michael Silver thinks the Bengals go 4-0 over the final stretch, and the Jets 3-1, to claim the last two spots.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/lastcall?page=lastcall/week13

Meanwhile, Peter "skunk-head" King over at SI thinks it will be the Jets and the Broncos. Apparently the Bengals will lose in Indy because Indy will be all motivated over home field advantage since the Chargers are neck-and-neck with them -- and I guess that'll be more motivation than a Bengals team facing possible elimination all together. Then I guess we lose to Denver too or something. Whatever, skunky.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writ...mmqb/index.html

[Kazkal]

We very well could be the steelers of last year wildcard seed knocking off a division foe ....hey! we gotta bring chad home! sense he is from miami and all

[Stripes]

We very well could be the steelers of last year wildcard seed knocking off a division foe ....hey! we gotta bring chad home! sense he is from miami and all

That'd be fine by me. Suddenly all the "fluke" talk Steelers fans heard all offseason would seem rather silly, eh?

[Ox]

Won't it be very interesting if it all comes down to that last game versus the Stillers to decide our fate. You talk about a motivated Stiller team. Sheesh.

[derekshank]

Is it just me, or does anyone think that this offense is just getting started. We've been playing with only 2 of our normal starting O-Linemen, and only 3 real WR's. We get Bobbie Williams back this week... as well as Levi and Braham planning on being back soon - and we get Kelly Washington back this week (giving us back our much needed WR depth - and a killer 4 WR set).

I'm still not 100% sold on the defense... but if the offense gets clicking like we all know it can - it might not matter.

[agreen_112]

Man I hope we can finish this season off strong. I have a lot of faith that we will, but these next 4 weeks aren't exactly a walk in the park! It really comes down to our Defense. If they can keep us anchored, I like our chances.

[duus]

Man I hope we can finish this season off strong. I have a lot of faith that we will, but these next 4 weeks aren't exactly a walk in the park! It really comes down to our Defense. If they can keep us anchored, I like our chances.

Well, if we pull off 3 or 4 wins out of the next 4, we will have absolutely earned our way to the playoffs this year. We will be flying high and ready for the playoffs themselves. If we fail to get 3 wins in the next 4, then you would have to have questioned our potential in the playoffs anyway.

[agreen_112]

Man I hope we can finish this season off strong. I have a lot of faith that we will, but these next 4 weeks aren't exactly a walk in the park! It really comes down to our Defense. If they can keep us anchored, I like our chances.

Well, if we pull off 3 or 4 wins out of the next 4, we will have absolutely earned our way to the playoffs this year. We will be flying high and ready for the playoffs themselves. If we fail to get 3 wins in the next 4, then you would have to have questioned our potential in the playoffs anyway.

Yeah your absoulutely right. I will be a little dissapointed, but not really that much. Considering all of the injuries and problems we've faced this year, we really shouldn't even be in this position. This really says a lot about our coaching staff! Especially the Offensive line coach, WR coach, QB coach, and defensive coaches. I know that we'll be right back in there next year.

[derekshank]

Well, if we pull off 3 or 4 wins out of the next 4, we will have absolutely earned our way to the playoffs this year.

Yep... considering we have currently the toughest strength of schedule of any current team with a winning record. Everyone realized coming into this season that the Bengals had the toughest schedule in the NFL. Well... it has pretty much worked out that way, and we've had a ton of injuries to overcome on top of that. If the Bengals squeak into the playoffs, no one is going to want to play them.

[CBin2k7]

Well, if we pull off 3 or 4 wins out of the next 4, we will have absolutely earned our way to the playoffs this year.

Yep... considering we have currently the toughest strength of schedule of any current team with a winning record. Everyone realized coming into this season that the Bengals had the toughest schedule in the NFL. Well... it has pretty much worked out that way, and we've had a ton of injuries to overcome on top of that. If the Bengals squeak into the playoffs, no one is going to want to play them.

I remember a lot of people on this board at the beginning of the season, saying that the Bengals could take a step back record wise and be a better team this year. I think that is very much so the case. This team is far to similar to the same fate that the San Diego Chargers are going through.

SD 2004 breakout year, division title. lose first playoff game

SD 2005 step back, miss playoffs, toughest schedule in NFL, injuries to key players, improving defense

SD 2006 surging, when clicking best combination of offense/defense in the NFL.

CIN 2005 breakout year, division title, lose first playoff game

One loss crushed SD's playoff chances last season, it was a home game, which they thought would be easily winnable, in week 14 against the Miami Dolphins. At the time the Chargers were 8-4 and had won 5 straight after a 3-4 start... sitting in the AFC's 5th seed in the playoff chase. In comes Miami, who were having a bad season. Long story short, SD loses, and then they lose 3 out of 4 to close the season 9-7 to miss the playoffs.

I hope the similarites end this year, but both teams could be headed on identical paths.

[derekshank]

I remember a lot of people on this board at the beginning of the season, saying that the Bengals could take a step back record wise and be a better team this year. I think that is very much so the case. This team is far to similar to the same fate that the San Diego Chargers are going through.

SD 2004 breakout year, division title. lose first playoff game

SD 2005 step back, miss playoffs, toughest schedule in NFL, injuries to key players, improving defense

SD 2006 surging, when clicking best combination of offense/defense in the NFL.

CIN 2005 breakout year, division title, lose first playoff game

One loss crushed SD's playoff chances last season, it was a home game, which they thought would be easily winnable, in week 14 against the Miami Dolphins. At the time the Chargers were 8-4 and had won 5 straight after a 3-4 start... sitting in the AFC's 5th seed in the playoff chase. In comes Miami, who were having a bad season. Long story short, SD loses, and then they lose 3 out of 4 to close the season 9-7 to miss the playoffs.

I hope the similarites end this year, but both teams could be headed on identical paths.

Yeah... I've thought about that too. San Diego might win the Super Bowl this year, and the Bengals could very easily be in the drivers seat next year with a fully healthy Carson Palmer, and hopefully a lot of returning injured players.

Of course the key difference is that San Diego could win this year, and the be done, while next year when the Bengals win, it will be the first of 44 in a row.

[CBin2k7]

I remember a lot of people on this board at the beginning of the season, saying that the Bengals could take a step back record wise and be a better team this year. I think that is very much so the case. This team is far to similar to the same fate that the San Diego Chargers are going through.

SD 2004 breakout year, division title. lose first playoff game

SD 2005 step back, miss playoffs, toughest schedule in NFL, injuries to key players, improving defense

SD 2006 surging, when clicking best combination of offense/defense in the NFL.

CIN 2005 breakout year, division title, lose first playoff game

One loss crushed SD's playoff chances last season, it was a home game, which they thought would be easily winnable, in week 14 against the Miami Dolphins. At the time the Chargers were 8-4 and had won 5 straight after a 3-4 start... sitting in the AFC's 5th seed in the playoff chase. In comes Miami, who were having a bad season. Long story short, SD loses, and then they lose 3 out of 4 to close the season 9-7 to miss the playoffs.

I hope the similarites end this year, but both teams could be headed on identical paths.

Yeah... I've thought about that too. San Diego might win the Super Bowl this year, and the Bengals could very easily be in the drivers seat next year with a fully healthy Carson Palmer, and hopefully a lot of returning injured players.

Of course the key difference is that San Diego could win this year, and the be done, while next year when the Bengals win, it will be the first of 44 in a row.

As much as I hate to say this, San Diego has staying power. Most of their "core" is young and locked up. Wait until they find a game changer at the WR position, it is going to be nuts.

Barring injuries, San Diego and Cincinnati are going to be battling for a while at top of the AFC. It will be amazing to watch. I would love for SD and Cincy to turn into the Pats/Colts rivalry.

[jjakq27]

Honestly, and this is not to bash the Steelers, I really think that SD should have been the second wild card team last year. They were playing pretty well but I seem to remember them f-ing up towards the end of the season leaving the door open for Pittsburgh.

I must also admit that Phillip Rivers has surprised me. I thought Ben was a better QB with more experience coming out of college but they must have seen somehting they liked in Rivers. I also give them credit for not giving in to the Manning's and using it to their advantage when the picked Eli then traded him to NY.

[HoosierCat]

I must also admit that Phillip Rivers has surprised me. I thought Ben was a better QB with more experience coming out of college but they must have seen somehting they liked in Rivers. I also give them credit for not giving in to the Manning's and using it to their advantage when the picked Eli then traded him to NY.

Speaking of which...

http://www.bangcartoon.com/cartoons/index....hive|bunker.swf

[delhole]

This is probably a waste of time but I'm bored and I can't go to bed so I'm going to analyze every AFC wild-card contenders' remaining schedule and with my immaculate knowledge of the NFL attempt to predict who's in or out at the end.

I'll start with the Bengals:

Sun, Dec 10 Oakland - Bengals win. period.

Mon, Dec 18 at Indianapolis - I really don't think this game will rely on what position the colts are in for home-field advantage like most experts are saying. It's a monday night game and with that said the stars come out to play. Right now the bangals stars are shinging brighter. Bengals win.

Sun, Dec 24 at Denver - Starting a rookie QB in the middle of a playoff hunt just doesn't make sense to me. Yeah, Plummer wasn't producing but atleast he has experience to lead a team to the post-season. Starting Cutler just makes me think Denver is already looking to next year. Denver goes 1-3 to finish and the one victory does not come against the Bengals. Bengals Win.

Sun, Dec 31 Pittsburgh - This is the game I've been looking forward to all season regardless of how umm "dissapointing" pittsburgh has played this season. For one, I have tickets and for two, I can't wait for the bengals to qive pissburgh a beating that they will be feeling all off-season long, their extra long off-season Bengals win.

Final Record: 11-5 (5-1 in div.) (9-3 in conf.)

N.Y. Jets They have possible the easiest remaining schedule of AFC conenders but can't manage to get the job done:

Sun, Dec 10 Buffalo - Ever since their bye in week 9 the Bills have been playing very good football. They've only gone 3-2 but thier losses were to the Colts(by 1) and Chargers(by 3), they beat Jax by 3 two weeks ago. Jets are coming off two cup cake wins that everyone seems t be hyping. Jets lose.

Sun, Dec 17 at Minnesota - Jets win.

Mon, Dec 25 at Miami - Miami's under-rated D would just love to spoil the Jets playoff hopes in the national spotlight and I think it's going to happen. Jets lose.

Sun, Dec 31 Oakland- Jets win.

Final Record: 9-7 (3-3 in div.) (7-5 in conf.)

Denver Broncos Have a schedule similar to the Bengals: 2 tough ones and two cup cakes:

Sun, Dec 10 at San Diego - Denver's D keeps the game close in the first half but LT gets his usual 3 TDs. Broncos lose.

Sun, Dec 17 at Arizona - Cutler has his first break out game and people start to hype the bronc's but this win is too little, too late. Broncos win.

Sun, Dec 24 Cincinnati - Already discussed this game. Broncos lose.

Sun, Dec 31 San Francisco - Broncos win.

Final Record: 9-7 (3-3 in div.) (7-5 in conf.)

Jacksonville Jaguars They have the toughest schedule left among playoff contenders and even if they do manage to make the playoffs they may be in pieces:

Sun, Dec 10 Indianapolis - When's the last time Indy lost 2 straight??? Jags lose.

Sun, Dec 17 at Tennessee - Tennessee will be on a 4 game win streak coming into this game but the jags won't give up their easiest opportunity for a win the rest of the season. Jags win.

Sun, Dec 24 New England - I'm just throwin it out there: Jags want/need it more, by this time the Pats will have clinched the AFC East. Jags win.

Sun, Dec 31 at Kansas City - Jags NEED this to get in the playoffs. They can't afford to go 9-7 because they will lose the head-to-head to the Jets. But the Chiefs will NEED this too and the 80,000 screaming fans at arrowhead will no doubt affect the game. Jags Lose.

Final Record: 9-7 (2-4 in div.) (6-6 in conf.)

Kansas City Chiefs They're schedule is almost as tough as Jacksaonville's:

Sun, Dec 10 Baltimore - Kansas City's offense is clicking with Green back in the lineup and Johnson running for 421 yards in the past 3 games and Baltimore's offense is, simply, not. Chiefs Win.

Sun, Dec 17 at San Diego - The Chiefs gave the Chargers one of their two losses earlier in the season, but lightning doesn't strike twice(get it?). Chiefs Lose.

Sat, Dec 23 at Oakland - It's the Raiders.....Chiefs win.

Sun, Dec 31 Jacksonville - It's a toss up but the home field advantage gives advantage to the Chiefs. Chiefs win.

Final Record: 10-6 (4-2 in div.) (6-6 in conf.)

Final AFC Standings:

1. San Diego Chargers - 13-3 (5-1 in div.) (10-2 in conf.) *based on best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.

2. Indianapolis Colts - 13-3 (5-1 in div.) (10-2 in conf.)

3. Baltimore Ravens - 12-4 (5-1 in div.) (9-3 in conf.)

4. New England Patriots - 12-4 (5-1 in div.) (8-4 in conf.)

5. Cincinnati Bengals - 11-5 (5-1 in div.) (8-4 in conf.)

6. Kansas City Chiefs - 10-6 (4-2 in div.) (6-6 in conf.)

There you have it hours and hours of analyzation that could all be shattered by one sigle game Ohwell, it's just for fun and if it all works out as planned then you ALL owe me a cold one

[jjakq27]

There you have it hours and hours of analyzation that could all be shattered by one sigle game

Sounds like my NCAA brackets in the spring time.

[schweinhart]

There you have it hours and hours of analyzation that could all be shattered by one sigle game

And here's to that one single game not being the Raiders-Bengals on Sunday.

Can't remember the last time a defensed ranked 3rd in total defense had a 2-10 record.

[HoosierCat]

Can't remember the last time a defensed ranked 3rd in total defense had a 2-10 record.

Well, total defense is based on yards allowed. Looks at my favorite Stat That Matters, points, and you'll find the Raiders rank 14th in points allowed. Number 13? That would be the Cincinnati Bengals.

[Tasher]

Can't remember the last time a defensed ranked 3rd in total defense had a 2-10 record.

Well, total defense is based on yards allowed. Looks at my favorite Stat That Matters, points, and you'll find the Raiders rank 14th in points allowed. Number 13? That would be the Cincinnati Bengals.

And the reason that the Oakland Raiders allow so few yards?

They give up the ball on offense so the opponents do not have to go so far to score. Very bad combination.

Baltimore, by the way, is the Real Deal: #1 in Yards Allowed, #2 in Points Allowed.

Oakland? Not so much.

Oakland has given the ball away 31 times so far this season. Bengals only 15.

Only New England and Baltimore have taken the ball away more than the Bengals this year. Only San Diego has given the ball away fewer times than the Bengals.

[schweinhart]

Can't remember the last time a defensed ranked 3rd in total defense had a 2-10 record.

Well, total defense is based on yards allowed. Looks at my favorite Stat That Matters, points, and you'll find the Raiders rank 14th in points allowed. Number 13? That would be the Cincinnati Bengals.

And the reason that the Oakland Raiders allow so few yards?

They give up the ball on offense so the opponents do not have to go so far to score. Very bad combination.

Baltimore, by the way, is the Real Deal: #1 in Yards Allowed, #2 in Points Allowed.

Oakland? Not so much.

Oakland has given the ball away 31 times so far this season. Bengals only 15.

Only New England and Baltimore have taken the ball away more than the Bengals this year. Only San Diego has given the ball away fewer times than the Bengals.

No question the Raiders offense is bad but even then the Bengals face a defense that -- since the 1st 4 games -- just does not give a lot of points. The Bolts were doing good to put up 21 and the Texans really only put up 3 of their 23 last week on the Raiders D. In their last 8 games those 2 are the 2 highest point totals.

And the real problem with playing a defense that can hold its own against a scoring offense like the Bolts is that it doesn't take as much for that team's offense to put together enough to win a game. Of course, not the case with the Raiders since they only have 2 wins --- so far. It was interesting to watch them attempt to muster offense under their new OC -- well, more like laughable the way it turned out -- but they've had another week to improve. No doubt the players are no better than before but Aaron Brooks has another week back under his belt (poor guy), the O-line has another week of chewing on embarassment and mockery and Rashad Lee has an opportunity to redeem himself in the eyes of the coaches who have entrusted him with being the off-tackle power runner/blitz blocker to complement the quick crease hitter up the middle in Huggy Bear Jr.

But I just don't like the idea of relying on the other team's offense to implode when the point totals and the yard totals show week after week for the past 8 weeks that this Raiders defense can hold up it's end of a bargain on a consistent basis. Does this mean the Bengals offense can't rack up 30? No. But if they fudge the playcalling in this one, they could quickly find themselves looking cockeyed at the scoreboard.

IOW, run Rudi until the defense stops it. The Bengals approach should be the opposite of what it usually is and the run should set up the pass. Too many passes into the teeth of the Raiders extremely fast defense could haunt them.

[Tasher]

No question the Raiders offense is bad but even then the Bengals face a defense that -- since the 1st 4 games -- just does not give a lot of points. The Bolts were doing good to put up 21 and the Texans really only put up 3 of their 23 last week on the Raiders D. In their last 8 games those 2 are the 2 highest point totals.

And the real problem with playing a defense that can hold its own against a scoring offense like the Bolts is that it doesn't take as much for that team's offense to put together enough to win a game. Of course, not the case with the Raiders since they only have 2 wins --- so far. It was interesting to watch them attempt to muster offense under their new OC -- well, more like laughable the way it turned out -- but they've had another week to improve. No doubt the players are no better than before but Aaron Brooks has another week back under his belt (poor guy), the O-line has another week of chewing on embarassment and mockery and Rashad Lee has an opportunity to redeem himself in the eyes of the coaches who have entrusted him with being the off-tackle power runner/blitz blocker to complement the quick crease hitter up the middle in Huggy Bear Jr.

But I just don't like the idea of relying on the other team's offense to implode when the point totals and the yard totals show week after week for the past 8 weeks that this Raiders defense can hold up it's end of a bargain on a consistent basis. Does this mean the Bengals offense can't rack up 30? No. But if they fudge the playcalling in this one, they could quickly find themselves looking cockeyed at the scoreboard.

IOW, run Rudi until the defense stops it. The Bengals approach should be the opposite of what it usually is and the run should set up the pass. Too many passes into the teeth of the Raiders extremely fast defense could haunt them.

I could not agree more, Run Rudi, pull the safeties up into the box, then throw over their heads.

The advantage that I think the Bengals have over other teams throwing vs the Raiders is that the Bengals receivers 1-5 are far better and faster than any other group that the Raiders have faced.

[San Antonio Bengal]

Can't remember the last time a defensed ranked 3rd in total defense had a 2-10 record.

Well, total defense is based on yards allowed. Looks at my favorite Stat That Matters, points, and you'll find the Raiders rank 14th in points allowed. Number 13? That would be the Cincinnati Bengals.

And the reason that the Oakland Raiders allow so few yards?

They give up the ball on offense so the opponents do not have to go so far to score. Very bad combination.

I've never liked total defense stat because it doesn't tell the full story of how a defense is performing. While there is no perfect stat, I like yards/points allowed. The higher the number, the harder (i.e. more yards) the opposing team needs to work in order to score a point. Despite the Raiders ranking 3rd in total defense and 14th in points allowed, the ratio of the two puts them at 28th in the league. Basically, the Raiders offense is constantly giving the other team a short field to work with whether through a turnover or punt. The opposing team doesn't have to work hard to put up points. When the opposing team doesn't have to work hard and your offense is not able to keep you in the game, I'd expect a 2 - 10 kind of season.

[HoosierCat]

No question the Raiders offense is bad but even then the Bengals face a defense that -- since the 1st 4 games -- just does not give a lot of points. The Bolts were doing good to put up 21 and the Texans really only put up 3 of their 23 last week on the Raiders D.

This is true, however, don't forget that the Houston offense can't put up points on anyone (31st in points scored), and the Chargers are division rivals. They held SD to 27 to start the season. So I'm not sure how much to read into that game.

(Regarding SD, it may also be worth noting that after reeling off a string of six games in which they scored at least 27 -- and better than 30 in 5 of those 6 -- the Chargers appear to have come back down to earth, with 21 against the Raiders and 24 against the Bills.)

The Raiders may not give up a lot of points, but they also haven't faced much in the way of potent offenses: Baltimore (14th in scoring), Cleveland (29), San Fran (27), Arizona (19), Pitt (12), Denver (22), KC (13) and Seattle (10). The Seahawks and Chargers are the only two top-10 offenses Oakland has faced, and when the Raiders played Seattle, the Hags were without Alexander and had Seneca Wallace under center.

I'm not worried about the Raiders stopping the Bengals. Like you said, Rudi early and often and things should work out. I am worried about the Bengals stopping themselves (dumb playcalls, bad execution, lack of focus, etc.)

[bengalboomer7]

Time for the bold statement of the day. I've seen a few pundits and a few posters predict us winning out the last 4, finishing 11-5, and getting a wild card spot. Well, it won't happen. If we finish 11-5, we won't make the wildcard, we will WIN THE DIVISION!

[Tasher]

Oakland likes to play alot of Man2Man on the corners, granted, they have the corners to do it, but do they have enough corners to do it vs Cincinnati?

Sounds like Carson and Co are licking their chops to get a hold of the Raiders secondary...