Debate: Bengals' 2006 Win Total

[soswalter]

My friend and I had an argument about how many wins the Bengals would have this year. Vegas' over-under is 9, and he liked the under. I disagreed.

It was a good debate, so I made it into a section on my Web site.

http://walterfootball.com/banter_CIN9.php

There's a poll at the bottom, where you can pick whom you agreed with.

Hope you guys like it.

[Stripes]

Good site you run there, Walter. It has been used here many times to reference various discussions.

Honestly, in this case, I don't agree with either of you.

There's no way in all Hell we finish 6-10, but at the same time, if we start 1-4, we're screwed. Slow starts killed our seasons in 2003 and 2004, and the 4-0 start in 2005 jumpstarted us to the division championship. I think we'll need to be at least .500 after the first four games to be able to maintain our position as a sure playoff contender.

By the way, I just noticed something wonderful. http://www.walterfootball.com/season2006_PLAYOFF.php

The final outcome isn't what I'd like obviously, but just seeing the Bengals involved in preseason Superbowl predictions makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside.

[soswalter]

Thanks TDB.

You're right about the slow starts, but the 2003 1-4 was with Jon Kitna, while the 2004 1-4 was with a rookie QB (Carson Palmer was making his first few career starts).

This 2006 squad is more equipped to handle a slow start. I just think it's going to be tough without Odell Thurman. 2-2 in the first four is definitely possible though -- I wouldn't even come close to ruling that out.

[TJJackson]

I think it will be anywhere from 6-10 and 9-7

IMHO, 9-7 with this year's brutal schedule will probably be a bigger accomplishment than last years 11-5

[duus]

Each time I hear this 'tough schedule' argument, I just want folks to remember that this team is as 'tough' as any of the others. Seriously, are not the Bengals a top 10 NFL team? Easily. Let's just remember that they won their division last year and went on the road and beat the team that eventually won the Super Bowl. They played toe-to-toe with the Colts and looked pretty special in the playoff game until the Palmer injury. Is the defense the weakness? Probably, but it's going to be better than last year. And 'just better' might have been all it needed to have taken another 2-3 games (i.e. Colts, Jags, and playoff game) last year.

As for me, I see 11 wins. Tough schedule? We are as tough as the others. Keep in mind that it is now the Bengals that make the other teams have tough schedules as well. You don't think the Colts, Steelers, Patriots, Panthers, etc. look at the game against us and think 'tough'? They surely do.

11 wins. Division title. Two in a row.

[Stripes]

Schedules rarely end up panning out as they look like they will before the season anyways.

I like the way Marvin put it... Every year we have the same schedule. We play 16 NFL teams.

[derekshank]

Last year the two Baltimore games looked pretty brutal. The same goes for anyone who had to go play the Eagles. Things happen. It's too early to tell who the best teams are going to be. Right now it looks pretty tough... but the teams we play aren't exactly looking forward to playing the Bengals, so the feeling is mutual.

[TJJackson]

*shrug*

it's pretty universally accepted by professional sports writers that the 2006 Bengals schedule is particulary tough, much tougher than last year.

If ya'all want to pretend that all teams are equally tough, hey, you're welcome to stick your head in the sand and pretend that is the case.....

[ChadJohnson-85]

We might got a hard schedule but what makes everyone think we'll have a loseing season? You all are forgetting that we have a good team to. Actually we probably have the best Offense in the NFL and our Defense is much better then last year. IMO well go 13-3.

WHO DEY!!!

[TJJackson]

I don't think everyone is predicting a losing season, not sure where you get that from.

We are a good team when healthy and with all of our best players available. We're not going to have that luxury for the first 4 games this year, possibly longer.

[kingwilly]

Before we enter camp, sign all the rookies, endure any injuries, get hammered by any additional legal woes, etc, I'd say this is a 10 win team....

But as has been discussed, the teams that seem to make our schedule appear tough now, could look much different by week one...

[Spor_tees]

This argument about the Bengals' schedule reminds me of a saying my friend told me once, "Even masterbation is rougher when you use a brillo pad."

[ShulaSteakhouse]

Useless. Might as well throw darts at a wall with a blindfold at this point.

[derekshank]

*shrug*

it's pretty universally accepted by professional sports writers that the 2006 Bengals schedule is particulary tough, much tougher than last year.

If ya'all want to pretend that all teams are equally tough, hey, you're welcome to stick your head in the sand and pretend that is the case.....

I agree that we probably will have a tougher schedule this year than last. Last year, especially early, the light schedule gave us confidence to believe we were a playoff team. Now we know we are, so the light schedule isn't as important. We won the division, and Pittsburgh schedule was equally soft. Now their schedule is equally tough.

Beyond that important fact... I still don't think our schedule is all that impossible. We were able to pull KC in week 1, with a new coach an OC, while they are adjusting to two new OT's. The Browns just lost their best FA. I've heard a lot of NFL experts say that Baltimore is over-rated by the general public, and San Diego has a new QB. I have a hard time mustering up a lot of fear against teams like Oakland and New Orleans. That's 8 games right there... and as I mentioned before, teams like the Patriots, Falcons, Colts, Broncos and Steelers aren't jumping for joy when they see us on their schedule. I'm not predicting another 11-5 season, because it's too early to tell... and it doesn't look like an easy road. But based on the schedule I'm looking at, I don't see why a 10 win season is out of the question.

[ArmyBengal]

Is our schedule tough ?? Yes, one of the toughest, if not THE toughest in the league. However, we return an offense that's tops in the league and a revamped defense. I to think the fast start will be key (as always) and anything less than 2-2 could spell problems. Once again, teams that appear tough now, might be different in a couple months, weeks, or days. The Vikings looked real tough going into the season last year, but never came together.

Pick your heads up you bunch of doubting Thomas' and look at the big picture. We aren't the freaking Bungles anymore !!! Repeat 11-5 !!!

WHODEY !!!

[TJJackson]

I'll repeat one more time for sanity's sake

1) we do not have a fully healthy carson palmer (a legit mvp candidate in 2005) to start the season as we did in 2005

2) we do not have as easy a schedule as we did in 2005

3) we are not going to surprise anyone as we did in 2005

4) we do not have an easy early schedule to set confidence level on a high as we did in 2005

5) Odell is out for 4 games

So keep telling me how ths is a 10+ win team and I will keep reminding you that we have been weakened and our opposition strengthened

Sure, we could hit 12, 13, 14 wins. The ball can bounce funny ways on Sunday. But it is also not out of the realm of possibility that we fall back to 5-11 or 6-10, particularly for the reasons stated above.

One thing working in our favor - sure, we play the reigning super bowl champs twice, but we already know we can handle them, even dominate them, due to our familiarity with them, and I think a lot of players on the team are licking their chops for the chance to SWEEP them. Talk about a confidence builder, if it were to go that way.....

[bengalboomer7]

Schedules rarely end up panning out as they look like they will before the season anyways.

I like the way Marvin put it... Every year we have the same schedule. We play 16 NFL teams.

You guys are basing the toughness of the schedule based on 2005 teams (I know, DUH) But this isn't 2005 anymore. We have no idea how tough the schedule is. Remember, last year Arizona, Minnesota, New York Jets, etc were all chic picks to be playoff contenders. It's hard to tell what FA losses and injuries will hurt a team before the season even starts.

I agree with Derek

Oakland - Aaron Brooks, nuff said

SD-First time starter Phillip Rivers

Balt- an aging D, injury prone QB

Pitt-major FA and retirement losses

KC-new coach, new scheme

New ORleans-do I even need to type anything here

Let's let training camp play out first.

[AGrizzlyBaer]

this team will either boom or bust 12 wins or 4 wins

[ArmyBengal]

So we could dominate the Super Bowl champs, but will struggle against everyone else ?? Sure, a knowledge of the team helps greatly, but you honestly think we won't fair as well against the other teams, because we simply don't have the knowledge ?? If we can dominate the champs, as you say, wouldn't it be safe to say we would at least have a better than average chance against the other teams we play ?? Game planning is game planning. Execution is a must !!!

WHODEY !!!

[andybren]

Maybe I'm just turning into a bitter old man, but I'm getting tired of the so-called "sports journalism" being posted on the internet by 22 year-old punks who can't get real jobs in their field. These guys should really put their credentials on the top of the page so I can at least tell what kind of nonsense I'm going to be reading ahead of time.

Say what you will about starting slow and having a tougher schedule, but "Fred" is an asshat for thinking we're going to go 1-5 against the AFC North. Including 2 losses to the Browns. A year after we went 5-1. Puh-lease.

Even during the Lost Decade (which "Fred" would be too young to remember) we were always competitive with the Browns. I don't have the stats in front of me, but I'd be surprised if you could find 3 times in the past 15 years where we went 0-2 against the Browns.

And Deltha O'Neal isn't considered at least "solid" a year after going to the Pro Bowl? Gimme a break. Our secondary is much better this year. And, yes, Madieu Williams is a great player.

We might not have as many wins this year, but still, that doesn't qualify that "column" as even close to being legitimate. Anybody can talk out of their ass just to get a little "banter" going.

EDIT: I was wrong about the Browns. We went 0-2 against them in '02, '95, '94 and '93. I guess I blocked out the fact that Dave Shula was 1-7 against them. But still, to think we're going to go 0-2 this year is ludicrous.

[Dan2330]

I'll repeat one more time for sanity's sake

1) we do not have a fully healthy carson palmer (a legit mvp candidate in 2005) to start the season as we did in 2005

2) we do not have as easy a schedule as we did in 2005

3) we are not going to surprise anyone as we did in 2005

4) we do not have an easy early schedule to set confidence level on a high as we did in 2005

5) Odell is out for 4 games

Can't buy into #3, after all this is football where you have an entire week to prepare for a team. I could almost buy in baseball where a team 'surprises' another one with a couple of quick wins, but not in football.

Football is way too un-predictable anymore, ever since St. Louis found a way to dominate teams and win the SuperBowl with a backup quarterback nothing is a guarantee anymore.

[Bobcat Bengal]

Uhm......I'm gonna sayyyyyy---

I don't give a flying f**k.....

as long as they make the playoffs.

[derekshank]

I'll repeat one more time for sanity's sake

1) we do not have a fully healthy carson palmer (a legit mvp candidate in 2005) to start the season as we did in 2005

2) we do not have as easy a schedule as we did in 2005

3) we are not going to surprise anyone as we did in 2005

4) we do not have an easy early schedule to set confidence level on a high as we did in 2005

5) Odell is out for 4 games

For every point you made, I can make a counter-point.

1) Rudi Johnson is healthy (something he wasn't for the entire year last year) and the entire offseason was spent focusing on the running game. - not to mention that Palmer is still expected to play the entire season.

2) Yes our schedule is more difficult... but so is the Steelers, Ravens and Browns. We won the division last year, so it shouldn't be viewed as a different expectation this year

3) We didn't surprise anyone ever. Maybe in '03 when we had Kitna at QB, and Marvin was a rookie coach, but we were coming on at the end of '04, and no one viewed us as a bye anymore.

4) We had an entire season last year to set our confidence high. We are a legitmate playoff team, and a top 10 team in the NFL. Our confidence is already where it should be.

5) Odell, although he did get several INT's, was also responsible for many big plays against us. We have very good depth at LB, and Simmons and Johnson are more than capable of holding down the fort while he's out.

See there... and I didn't even have to mention that our defense should be incredibly improved with Sam Adams, Dexter Jackson, Madieu back, and Pollack with a year under his belt ready to show why he was a #1 pick.

All that said, once again, I agree that 11-5 is a lofty expectation, and would be satisfied with a 10-6 if we win the division... but that doesn't sound unreasonable to me. Our schedule is tougher than last year... but there isn't a single team on the schedule that we can't beat. Every one of them has a flaw... and in most cases those difficult teams look weaker than they did last year. Be a pessimist if you like... but I see more reasons to be excited this season than to be worried.