Some numbers to ponder:
For 2023, the Bengals are currently about $50 million under the cap. Burrow already counts $11.5 million versus the 2023 cap, virtually all of which is guaranteed.
For 2024, the Bengals are currently $140 million under the cap. If they were to pick up Burrow’s 5th year option, which they will obviously do, that would be approximately $30.4 million, fully guaranteed.
For 2025, the furthest OTC goes out, the Bengals are currently $249 million under the cap.
So for the next two seasons, Burrow is already set to receive about $42 million. All but about $400k off that would be fully guaranteed. Estimates on Joe’s extension are in the $50 million/year range. Under a traditional deal at least half of that would be guaranteed. Given they are already committed to giving him north of $20 million annually guaranteed in 23 and 24, those number look doable.
I don’t know where things go if Joe wants a Watson style fully guaranteed deal.