Week 17 Games to Watch

[HoosierCat]

One last little peek at games to watch…hard to believe the regular season is already over, eh?

Denver Broncos (12-3) @ San Diego Chargers (9-6)

The Broncos have already sewn up the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye, and gain nothing from a win here. Unsurprisingly, Shanahan has already nixed RB Mike Anderson, DE Courtney Brown, CB Darrent Williams, and LB Al Wilson for the final game. Six other players, including LB Ian Gold and WR Ashley Lelie are listed as probable, but don't be surprised if they either slide down the list tomorrow, or simply see few snaps Saturday.

On the other hand, the Chargers appear to be coming to play, with Brees set to start in what would arguably be a good game to take a look at Rivers. San Diego has added incentive to win, since a victory would eliminate division rival Kansas City from playoff contention, just one week after KC knocked the Chargers out of the race.

SD has had its struggles at home, going just 4-3 this season, but Denver has built its playoff run on an undefeated record at home, and are an unspectacular 4-3 on the road.

I look for Denver to rest anyone it can find an excuse to rest, and to start pulling starters by Q2. (if not earlier; reports are that backup QB Bradlee Van Pelt will get the majority of snaps, so look for Plummer to have perhaps one or two series at most). Between that, their mediocre road record, and the revenge factor for the Chargers, figure San Diego by about 14.

Detroit Lions (5-10) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5)

Like Denver (and, for that matter, Cincy and New England) the Steelers have the injury list already packed up and ready to use. LB Andre Frazier, DE Travis Kirschke, LB James Harrison, RB Dan Kreider, LB Clint Kriewaldt, QB Ben Roethlisberger, T Marvel Smith, and DE Kimo Von Oelhoffen are all listed with various bumps and bruises. A San Diego victory makes this game meaningless for the Steelers, so if that indeed occurs look for all these guys, and many more starters, to either sit or see just a few early snaps.

Should Denver surprise and pull out a win on the West Coast, Pitt will need a win to ensure they make the playoffs; a loss plus a KC victory would send them home. In that case, look for them to roll out their starters as per usual.

But whether Pitt rests its big guns or not, the most likely result is a Pitt victory. Detroit (2-5 on the road) did scrape by the Cardinals last week, so they might be able to move the ball a bit if the Steelers get down to their third or fourth stringers. Harrington starts again for the Lions, in what may well be his final appearance in a Detroit uniform. Look for Pitt to win by, oh, 24 if the game means something, and by 14 if it doesn't.

Miami Dolphins (8-7) @ New England Patriots (10-5)

Cincinnati Bengals (11-4) @ Kansas City Chiefs (9-6)

Considered together this week, because both teams are in the same boat. Each has won its division and gotten a first-round home playoff game. The only thing a victory buys here for either team is a better chance of playing Pitt in that game versus Jacksonville. And all talk of being "afraid" of this or that team aside, both Belichick and Lewis would certainly rather host a struggling Jacksonville squad than the currently red-hot Steelers.

Accordingly, both teams have injury reports chock full of starters. For the Patriots, the list of walking wounded includes LB Tedy Bruschi, QB Tom Brady, RB Corey Dillon, RB Heath Evans, TE Christian Fauria, TE Daniel Graham, DE Jarvis Green, S Artrell Hawkins, WR Bethel Johnson, T Nick Kaczur, RB Patrick Pass, and CB Asante Samuel.

For Cincy, DT Bryan Robinson is out, and RB Chris Perry, and DE Carl Powell are highly unlikely to see the field at all. TE Reggie Kelly, CB Deltha O'Neal, and LB Marcus Wilkins are 50/50, while probables include DE Jonathan Fanene, RB Rudi Johnson, T Levi Jones, QB Carson Palmer, and DT Shaun Smith.

I fully expect that Belichick will rest his stars, especially after Bruschi getting hurt last week. Meanwhile, Miami will come to play. Even though they are out of the playoffs, a 9-7 finish would be huge for this team this year, and would likely garner Nick Saban more than a few coach of the year votes. I think Miami wins by 10.

Meanwhile, in KC, Marvin Lewis will do the same thing as Bill Belichick: sit 'em. Carson Palmer might see a series or two, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if backup Jon Kitna started. At least on offense, the Bengals have good depth, so look for them to put up a fight, but especially if Shaun Smith sits (might we actually see *gasp* Matthais Askew?) Larry Johnson will run for about 500 yards. KC wins this game, but by how much depends on what happens elsewhere in the league.

If SD wins Saturday and wipes out their playoff hopes, look for KC to win by 9.

If SD loses, look for KC to come out strong but tail off after the half, when the Steelers will likely be up by about 30 points over Detroit. In that case, look for KC to win by about 14.

If SD loses and by some strange quirk of fate the Lions are as much as hanging in there with the Steelers at the half, look for KC to go whole hog the whole game and win by about 21.

[Stripes]

hard to believe the regular season is already over, eh?

This season has just flown right on by. Maybe winning will do that.

Another good post, thanks for the insight. I agree with all these picks, except probably the Dolphins, and if correct, we have ourselves a third game with the hated ones. Good times.

[Jet23]

You forgot the most interesting game, Houston & SF. Loser gets Reggie Bush. This is exactly the reason the NBA has a lottery. The NFL should do the same.

[bengalindian]

Someone explain why a SD win eliminates KC from the playoffs?

I think the Chiefs win no matter what, and I can see the Pats losing because they rest their starters. So, I agree with all of your picks, Joisey.

[The_Next_Big_Thing]

You forgot the most interesting game, Houston & SF. Loser gets Reggie Bush. This is exactly the reason the NBA has a lottery. The NFL should do the same.

Uh how wrong can one person get? The NBA has a lottery because thugs like to play the lotto. The NBA does not have parity like the NFL.

The NFL works great as is.

[Jet23]

You forgot the most interesting game, Houston & SF. Loser gets Reggie Bush. This is exactly the reason the NBA has a lottery. The NFL should do the same.

Uh how wrong can one person get? The NBA has a lottery because thugs like to play the lotto. The NBA does not have parity like the NFL.

The NFL works great as is.

How wrong can one person get? Go back in read your last 50 posts. I bet you don't speak to people outside of cyberspace like you do on this board. It's fun to be surly from behind a keyboard isn't it sparky?

[HoosierCat]

Someone explain why a SD win eliminates KC from the playoffs?

From espn...

The Steelers can clinch a playoff spot with:

1. A win

2. A Chiefs loss or tie

3. A Chargers win (note: although Chargers have been eliminated, if they win vs. Broncos and they, the Chiefs and the Steelers all finish at 10-6, you would break division ties first. Chargers would win tiebreaker vs. Chiefs based on common opponents (8-4 vs 7-5) and that would eliminate the Chiefs. They would then go to tiebreaker vs. Steelers, which Pittsburgh would win based on its head-to-head win vs. Chargers)