Steelers may still be out at 11-5

[cmidy]

Even if the Steelers run the table, if the Jags lose one game and the Chargers win both games then the Steelers are out. Why?

Because of the AFC conference record between the three tied teams.

Overall AFC

Jags 11-5 8-4

Chargers 11-5 9-3

Steelers 11-5 7-5

The way the Jags have been playing, I would not be surprised if they lose to Houston or the Titans. The more difficult scenario is whether or not the Chargers can beat KC and then Denver.

It would be funny if the Steelers ran the table and still did not make the playoffs because Houston or the Titans beat the Jags. I hope Houston(the city) remembers that they were once rivals with the Steelers and the Titans( the Oilers) were once rivals with the Steelers and play hard to beat the Jags thus almost eliminating the Steelers.

[Stripes]

If the Steelers and Chargers both finish at 11-5, then the Steelers would get the nod because of their head to head win over the Chargers earlier in the season.

[KRUNKJUICE]

But if Denver losses out, and San Diego wins out then the Chargers win the division and Pittsburgh is left out.

[alleycat]

Actually, the Steelers can miss the playoffs even if Denver only loses the game to SD (and wins the next). San Diego has to win out and the Jags to lose once. All three teams (Pitt, SD, Jax) finish with 11-5. You'd think that because Pitt beat out SD they'd be in, but that's not the way it works when THREE teams are tied record-wise. I posted this tie-breaking procedure in another thread:

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.

2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)

3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

Because none of the three teams has either lost to both or beaten both, the head-to-head sweep is not applicable and the next step, conference record, kicks in. Pittsburgh has lost 5, SD 3, and Jax 3. Even if Jax loses one, both they and SD have better conference records and Pitt wipes it's nose.

Either way, I'm happy with this scenario.

If we lose to Denver, we take off the KC game and play Jax at home (Correct me if I'm wrong here, but wouldn't this scenario put Jax at the number 6 seed).

If we win the last game, we take the buy, then play the winner of the Denver Jax game at home. I think this is the most likely route to get us into the AFC championship game. Which in this scenario I would bet would be in Cincy against San Diego! (or New England).

Wow.. this could all be useless conjecture, but isn't it fun to finally be spitting out useless conjecture this time of year!?

[HoosierCat]

Because none of the three teams has either lost to both or beaten both, the head-to-head sweep is not applicable and the next step, conference record, kicks in. Pittsburgh has lost 5, SD 3, and Jax 3. Even if Jax loses one, both they and SD have better conference records and Pitt wipes it's nose.

Yup. And thinking about it yesterday, there's a realistic scenario for the upcoming weekend under which it becomes not just possible, but likely. Consider this:

SD beats KC. Note that the home Chiefs are favored by just 1 lousy point. So this isn't crazy.

Denver beats Oakland.

The Bengals suffer a post-clinch letdown and drop one to the Bills. (This is probably the least likely to happen).

Jax beats the Texans.

If all that happens, here's where we stand going into week 17:

Denver will have clinched the No. 2 seed with their victory and our loss, so they have nothing to be gained by beating SD. Denver likely rests its starters, leading to an SD wiin.

Jax, with a victory over Houston the week before, clinches a wild card berth. They have no need to beat Tennessee, and may rest starters as well. Result: Tenn win.

Assuming the Steelers win out, there's your 3-way tie.

[AMC]

Whew....Wake me up when all of the games are over and just tell me who the Bengals play! ....After trying to digest all the permutations I think I need to go Rip Van Winkle!!!!!!!

[Indycat]

Actually, the Steelers can miss the playoffs even if Denver only loses the game to SD (and wins the next). San Diego has to win out and the Jags to lose once. All three teams (Pitt, SD, Jax) finish with 11-5. You'd think that because Pitt beat out SD they'd be in, but that's not the way it works when THREE teams are tied record-wise. I posted this tie-breaking procedure in another thread:

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.

2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)

3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

Because none of the three teams has either lost to both or beaten both, the head-to-head sweep is not applicable and the next step, conference record, kicks in. Pittsburgh has lost 5, SD 3, and Jax 3. Even if Jax loses one, both they and SD have better conference records and Pitt wipes it's nose.

Either way, I'm happy with this scenario.

If we lose to Denver, we take off the KC game and play Jax at home (Correct me if I'm wrong here, but wouldn't this scenario put Jax at the number 6 seed).

If we win the last game, we take the buy, then play the winner of the Denver Jax game at home. I think this is the most likely route to get us into the AFC championship game. Which in this scenario I would bet would be in Cincy against San Diego! (or New England).

Wow.. this could all be useless conjecture, but isn't it fun to finally be spitting out useless conjecture this time of year!?

If we are the #2 seed we would face the highest seed following the wild card games.

If Jaguars and Patriots both win then we would face the Patriots.

[kayaker0678]

steelers will be in along with pats and they will both be out by week two of playoffs

[blurple thunder]

steelers will be in along with pats and they will both be out by week two of playoffs

Now that's funny!

[cmidy]

Because none of the three teams has either lost to both or beaten both, the head-to-head sweep is not applicable and the next step, conference record, kicks in. Pittsburgh has lost 5, SD 3, and Jax 3. Even if Jax loses one, both they and SD have better conference records and Pitt wipes it's nose.

Yup. And thinking about it yesterday, there's a realistic scenario for the upcoming weekend under which it becomes not just possible, but likely. Consider this:

SD beats KC. Note that the home Chiefs are favored by just 1 lousy point. So this isn't crazy.

Denver beats Oakland.

The Bengals suffer a post-clinch letdown and drop one to the Bills. (This is probably the least likely to happen).

Jax beats the Texans.

If all that happens, here's where we stand going into week 17:

Denver will have clinched the No. 2 seed with their victory and our loss, so they have nothing to be gained by beating SD. Denver likely rests its starters, leading to an SD wiin.

Jax, with a victory over Houston the week before, clinches a wild card berth. They have no need to beat Tennessee, and may rest starters as well. Result: Tenn win.

Assuming the Steelers win out, there's your 3-way tie.

Hey Joiseycat,

That was brilliant! There is a clear chance where Jax will lose one of their two remaing games. I am not sure that SD will win their two remaining games, but if they do and Jax does lose one game then Hooray, the big, bad, old steelers are gone!!!!!!!!!!

If the Steelers and Chargers both finish at 11-5, then the Steelers would get the nod because of their head to head win over the Chargers earlier in the season.

Hey TDB,

I like the photo, so I won't be too hard on you dude.

Read my message again as well as Joiseycat's message.

I said in a three way tie, the steelers are out. I spelled it out by showing what their AFC conference record would be what is so difficult about it for you to understand?

Overall AFC

Jags 11-5 8-4

Chargers 11-5 9-3

Steelers 11-5 7-5

[Stripes]

Hey TDB,

I like the photo, so I won't be too hard on you dude.

Read my message again as well as Joiseycat's message.

I said in a three way tie, the steelers are out. I spelled it out by showing what their AFC conference record would be what is so difficult about it for you to understand?

Overall AFC

Jags 11-5 8-4

Chargers 11-5 9-3

Steelers 11-5 7-5

I tried to take any hostility out of my post, because a trend around here is for people to respond harshly to every comment given with which they do not agree/understand. I didn't want you to misconceive mine in that manner, so I just made the statement as I thought it ought to be made, blank and lacking energy. Because of this, your psuedo-hostile response is not needed.

I do see now what you meant, as repeated by others in this thread. So yes, you are correct, given this scenario the Steelers may not make the playoffs.

[cmidy]

Hey TDB,

I like the photo, so I won't be too hard on you dude.

Read my message again as well as Joiseycat's message.

I said in a three way tie, the steelers are out. I spelled it out by showing what their AFC conference record would be what is so difficult about it for you to understand?

Overall AFC

Jags 11-5 8-4

Chargers 11-5 9-3

Steelers 11-5 7-5

I tried to take any hostility out of my post, because a trend around here is for people to respond harshly to every comment given with which they do not agree/understand. I didn't want you to misconcieve mine in that manner, so I just made the statement as I thought it ought to be made, blank and lacking energy. Because of this, your psuedo-hostile response is not needed.

I do see now what you meant, as repeated by others in this thread. So yes, you are correct, given this scenario the Steelers may not make the playoffs.

I apologize TDB. Now can you introduce me to your friend.

[Stripes]

I apologize TDB. Now can you introduce me to your friend.

Sure thing. Her name is Heather, and she LOVES mud wrestling and cooking dinner.

[Bengalbob]

Now help a brother out. I feel like I'm getting mixed messages between this an other threads about who I should be rooting for in the SD/KC game (as well as in the remaining Jax games). Who should I root for this weekend for the best bengal outcome (besides Oakland of course)?

[DontPushMe]

If we are the #2 seed we would face the highest seed following the wild card games.

If Jaguars and Patriots both win then we would face the Patriots.

The NFL re-seeds the teams after the first round. So the Patriots will likely end up playing the colts in Indy in round 2.

[cmidy]

I apologize TDB. Now can you introduce me to your friend.

Sure thing. Her name is Heather, and she LOVES mud wrestling and cooking dinner.

I'd sure love to eat her, ahem I mean what ever fish she is cooking.

Now help a brother out. I feel like I'm getting mixed messages between this an other threads about who I should be rooting for in the SD/KC game (as well as in the remaining Jax games). Who should I root for this weekend for the best bengal outcome (besides Oakland of course)?

Bengalbob,

If you are like me and HATE the steelers. Then you will root for SD to not only beat KC, but also beat Denver. And also hope that Jacksonville lose one of two games either against Houston or more likely against the Titans.

A threeway tie between pitt, SD and the Jags put the steelers out.

That would make the steelers and all their fans mad because only next year would they get a chance of pulling an upset against us again.

[derekshank]

Bengalbob,

If you are like me and HATE the steelers. Then you will root for SD to not only beat KC, but also beat Denver. And also hope that Jacksonville lose one of two games either against Houston or more likely against the Titans.

A threeway tie between pitt, SD and the Jags put the steelers out.

That would make the steelers and all their fans mad because only next year would they get a chance of pulling an upset against us again.

Hating Pittsburgh is not the main reason we want SD to beat Denver. That will give us the shot at getting the #2 seed. It is even more likely for us to get it if SD beats KC too, making the Chiefs completely out of the playoff race, and they have nothing at all to play for against us.

SD winning, and Jags losing is the best scenario for us assuming we win our playoff games too, because it will mean that either SD or NE will play at Indy, and both of these teams can beat Indy, making for an AFC championship game in Cincy!

Pittburgh not making the playoffs is just an added bonus!

[Stripes]

Hating Pittsburgh is not the main reason we want SD to beat Denver. That will give us the shot at getting the #2 seed. It is even more likely for us to get it if SD beats KC too, making the Chiefs completely out of the playoff race, and they have nothing at all to play for against us.

If the Patriots manage to knock off the Colts in the 2nd round, then I'd be more nervous facing them than I would have been with the Colts, home or away. Still, if we were to face New England in the AFC Championship Game, I'd love to have the same symbology of "changing of the guard" like when we beat Pittsburgh, but this time it'd be for the next NFL dynasty.