Realistic chances to win the AFCN

[derekshank]

Since it is just a two team race at this point, here is how the schedule breaks down for each team

Cincinnati:

@ Cle W

vs Min W

@Chi W

vs Hou W

@ Jax L

@ Ten W

vs Pit L

vs GB W

@ Bal W

BYE -

vs Ind L

vs Bal W

@ Pit W

vs Cle W

@ Det W

vs Buf W

@ KC L

12-4

Pittsburgh:

vs Ten W

@ Hou W

vs NE L

BYE -

@ SD W

vs Jax L

@ Cin W

vs Bal W

@ GB W

vs Cle W

@ Bal W

@ Ind L

vs Cin L

vs Chi W

@ Min W

vs Cle W

vs Det W

12-4

Obviously speculation here... but we NEED to beat Pittsburgh December 4th. The biggest problem with that is that even though Pittsburgh will have a short week coming off a Monday night game on the road, I expect them to take a loss... and it is hard to beat a good team after a loss (case in point... they just lost to Jax). If we lose to them, we will be at best 13-3. If they beat us, they most likely go 13-3 as well and win the tie breaker with a sweep in the AFCN...

Both of us have fairly easy schedules from here on out, with just a couple key matchups. They play Indy and us, we play Indy, Pit and KC. Neither one of these teams will be running away with the division... but it seems like they have a distinct advantage...

[Turi]

Yeah I'd agree. I personally think the Steelers are better than the Bengals but the Bengals have a better schedule. Of course every game is difficult but you've only got 3 really difficult teams left to play. Steelers, Indy and KC. If you still can't stop the run then add Buffalo to that.

I think we're lucky that we've already played some of our toughest games - Jags, NE, SD and now Cinci and we won half of them. Now we only have 2 more really difficult teams left to play. You and Indy.

One of us is going to get a wildcard. I just hope it's you guys.

[Stripes]

Looks about right Derek. It is a stretch to expect a win in Pittsburgh, but yes, I guess that is our only hope. Still, if we play up to our ability all year, then a wild card berth is about a given.

[CBin2k7]

Baltimore is not going to give up and that team will decide who wins the AFCN.

[The_Next_Big_Thing]

Colts game:

Late November, Outside, Cold weather. COLTS.

After a bye week, at home for the Bengals.

Likely against an Unbeaten team.

We will not lose this game.

[Stripes]

Colts game:

Late November, Outside, Cold weather. COLTS.

After a bye week, at home for the Bengals.

Likely against an Unbeaten team.

We will not lose this game.

Colts offensive line.

Edgerrin James.

Bengals run defense.

[The_Next_Big_Thing]

Colts offensive line.

Edgerrin James.

Bengals run defense.

Colts offensive line outside in the cold plays for crap.

Edge plays for crap outside in the cold.

Bengals run defense. Won't matter.

[derekshank]

Even if we win that game, and the KC game, but lose to Pittsburgh, we likely both have a 13-3 record... and they will have the tie-breaker.

It would suck to go 13-3 and not win the division. The Pittsburgh game is the most important one... but beating Indy would at least prove we aren't a fluke.

[jamesbrooks21]

Still too early to look at it like this. We will probably lose a game we shouldn't and they probably will too. NFL is too even. We need that win on December 4th now bad. I too think Baltimore is going to play a key role in all of this.

[ArmyBengal]

We have to sweep Cleveland and Baltimore to keep pace. Losing to Pittsburgh (while pissing me off) is more acceptable than losing to F**KING Cleveland. As long as we win the games we are SUPPOSE to win (we've done well so far), I think we will be OK and in the playoffs. Not being halfway through and in the competitive AFC, you just never know how things are going to shake out.

WHODEY !!!

[Jet23]

Yeah I'd agree. I personally think the Steelers are better than the Bengals but the Bengals have a better schedule. Of course every game is difficult but you've only got 3 really difficult teams left to play. Steelers, Indy and KC. If you still can't stop the run then add Buffalo to that.

I think we're lucky that we've already played some of our toughest games - Jags, NE, SD and now Cinci and we won half of them. Now we only have 2 more really difficult teams left to play. You and Indy.

One of us is going to get a wildcard. I just hope it's you guys.

Unfortunately, a wildcard is anything but a lock. Although nothing is certain, Pittsburgh appears to be the better team and should win the division. That leaves Cincy probably competing with Jacksonville (4-2) and KC (4-2). Jacksonville has already beaten us and we still have to go on the road to KC, which is a very tough place to play.

Was I the only one on the fence while watching the Pittsburgh / Jacksonville game? Obvioulsy I want the Bengals to take the division, but realistically, I knew there would be a good chance we would be fighting Jacksonville for a wildcard. Go figure, the Maddox debacle may actually cost the Bengals a playoff berth. I hope not, but if it does... I'M TRASHING YOUR YARD MADDOX!

[buck3y3d]

I'm not sure the Bengals are a lock for the wild card either. They need to get to 12 wins to be a lock, 11 and i think you're in, and 10 your on the line.

I though we would beat Pittsburgh and Indy, but now both these games might be L's. Throw in an away loss somewhere, like Baltimore or KC and we are at 11 wins. Lose to Baltimore and KC and were at wins looking in.

We already lost the tiebreaker to Jacksonville, and are down to Pittsburgh. We have to beat these Steelers at Pitt, which will be tough (and without solidifying the D, impossible). Playoffs might have to wait a year, but either way we can't lose prior to the Bye or pitt will jump on us.

[derekshank]

It's all speculation... but that is what makes it fun to be a fan right? So lets speculate...

AFC East

New England is probably going to win this division. Everyone else has serious problems... and losing records. NE also still has to play Indy, @KC, TB, and @ all their divisional foes. They will win their division... but not get a first round bye.

AFC West

Denver is 5-2 and is probably feeling dumb after losses in games they could have won (sounds familiar). They also have the best home field advantage in the NFL... but have 5 road games left. They play Phi, @Dal, @KC, and @SD. There are at least a few losses there.

KC is 4-2, but has shown weakness. They also must play SD x2, NE, Den, @Dal, @NYG and Cin. A very tough 7 out of last 10 games.

SD is 3-4, and continue to have a brutal schedule (KC x2, @Wash, @Ind, Den). These 3 West teams will pound each-other, and as a result none of them will steal a wildcard form Cincy.

AFC South

Indy wins homefield.

Jacksonville has beaten Cincy, so the tie breaker would go to them, and they have an unbelievably easy schedule ahead. Indianapolis is the only team they play with a winning record for their last 10 games.

This brings us to the North.

Assuming what is most likely to happen... Pittsburgh wins the division, and most likely gets a bye.

We will still have a very good record... and the last two years we have been a 2nd half team, so I expect us to get better each week. Even if we manage to lose all of our games to teams with winning records for the entire season, we will go 11-5.

So I see us playing @NE in the 1st round of the playoffs, and Jacksonville going to who ever wins the AFC West. This looks like a 1st round loss to me, but we might be better than New England this year. It's hard to tell.

Anyway... I don't see many ways for us to miss the playoffs outside of a huge 2nd half meltdown... which doesn't seem likely given our schedule and our short Marvin Lewis history... and there is still an outside chance for us to win the division and get a 1st round bye. Let's not hang our heads in shame just yet.

[Spain]

beat them in Pitt, thats all we got. We wont the playoffs take that game back from them.

[Kirkendall]

Anyway... I don't see many ways for us to miss the playoffs outside of a huge 2nd half meltdown... which doesn't seem likely given our schedule and our short Marvin Lewis history... and there is still an outside chance for us to win the division and get a 1st round bye. Let's not hang our heads in shame just yet.

Good analysis.

However, I caution you that the wild card might not come out of the AFC North. Not that I think it won't happen, but it's just as possible it could come from the West.

Denver and KC are both good teams that challenge, and take the wild card (I guess making week 17 all the more important). And barring a San Diego run, that division is probably easy for both teams to run up their record -- like our homestretch.

Ahh, this is what an NFL season is like says the reminded fan of a first-in-a-long-time successful NFL team.

Baltimore is not going to give up and that team will decide who wins the AFCN.

I would have agreed with you earlier in the season -- like before game one. Unless you mean they're playing spoiler, which is probably accurate. But they've got a lot of issues to deal with -- including players playing on the last season of their contracts with a "gotta do more than I really can to get a few extra bucks". Oh, plus their quarterbacks suck (understatement of the year.. )

[CincinnatiKid]

I agree that the Ravens could very well settle who will win the North and unfortunately it looks like the Steelers get the Ravens Monday night without Ray Lewis and Ed Reed.

[derekshank]

I think the wildcard does come from the North. The first wildcard probably goes to the South... the East is in shambles... and the West has too many good teams. When you have 3 good teams (KC is probably the worst of the three) they beat up on each other. I don't see anyone getting swept in that division, which means several losses.

The problem is that I don't know how good our chances are of winning the division right now. Pittsburgh seems more motivated on the road... so maybe our best chance to beat them this year is @ their house.

But they go to Indy.. and very well may pull out the win there... which would mean we need to beat Indy too.

Yes Indy is 7-0... but who have they played? Jacksonville is it... and it was @ home... and came down to the final drive. If we played Jax @ home, I imagine we win that game.

Other than Jacksonville, the combined record of all the teams Indy has faced is 10-28. The offenses they have faced have a combined average of 16.6 points/game (which would be 25th in the league). And the only decent offense they have played (St. Louis) put up 28 on them!

The defenses they have faced are allowing an average of 24.4 points/game (which would also be 25th in the league). And the only decent defense they faced (Jacksonville) only allowed 10 points to them!

7-0 is 7-0. I don't think I can deny that they are good... but I am beginning to think that Pittsburgh will beat them... and we might too. Jacksonville might even beat them in Jax. We might need to consider the possibility that home field doesn't go to Indy afterall... which would probably give it to Pittsburgh again. (Or if we play strong for the rest of the season... us!)

[CBin2k7]

The Jaguars are not a lock for anything. Every game they play is close, their Offense is downright horrible at times.

What's working for us is that the AFC West is playing the NFC East. I also think Oakland could play a big spoiler role for those teams out there.

It won't be easy but I think 9-7 gets in.

[AMC]

How WE play on the road will determine the division....the road games at PITT, KC, BALT, and DET will all be tougher than expected games, even DET...

[derekshank]

How WE play on the road will determine the division....the road games at PITT, KC, BALT, and DET will all be tougher than expected games, even DET...

I don't know if you can get "tougher than expected" with Pittsburgh. Everyone knows that KC is hard to beat in KC. Baltimore will be tough because it is a divisional game. Luckily, they will be coming off a Monday night game, so they'll have a short week, (same with Pittsburgh) and still have injury problems, and no QB.

You're right though. None of these games should be taken lightly... not even the Lions, now that Garcia is at QB. We'll have to take care of our own business. If we lose 3 more games... we won't win the division... but we should get the wildcard.

By the way... I've made note of it before, but we've gone 1-4 the lsat two seasons to finish 7-4. That is a drastic change in the quality of play. If we manage that this type of increase this season... we will be serious competition. I really feel like we've gone 5-2, and haven't played anywhere near our best football yet... and that should be scary for the rest of the NFL.

[jjakq27]

Yeah I'd agree. I personally think the Steelers are better than the Bengals but the Bengals have a better schedule. Of course every game is difficult but you've only got 3 really difficult teams left to play. Steelers, Indy and KC. If you still can't stop the run then add Buffalo to that.

I think we're lucky that we've already played some of our toughest games - Jags, NE, SD and now Cinci and we won half of them. Now we only have 2 more really difficult teams left to play. You and Indy.

One of us is going to get a wildcard. I just hope it's you guys.

14 of the 16 games are common opponents between both teams. I am really getting tired of hearing about the Bengals weak schedule. Pittsburgh gets to play Houston, Minnesota and Green Bay just like we do. The only difference is that we play KC and Buffalo while the Steelers play NE and SD.

[OrangeStripes]

The bengals have gone 1-4 in the beginning of the last 2 seasons like derek said and i have faith in the bengals that they will take advantage of the schedule and how they are already 5-2.. besides the fact that we lost im still siked for how much better we are doing and i garentee to get better then a 8-8 season record the way we are playing

[Jonboat]

Colts game:

Late November, Outside, Cold weather. COLTS.

After a bye week, at home for the Bengals.

Likely against an Unbeaten team.

We will not lose this game.

I was just talking with my Dad about the very same thing.

I'm with you & think we can win this game.

[Turi]

14 of the 16 games are common opponents between both teams. I am really getting tired of hearing about the Bengals weak schedule. Pittsburgh gets to play Houston, Minnesota and Green Bay just like we do. The only difference is that we play KC and Buffalo while the Steelers play NE and SD.

That's fair enough but tough games aren't just the teams you're playing it's where you're playing them also. When the schedules came out I remembered thinking how tough it was going to be going to Minnesota and Green Bay whilst you get to play them at home. Now that doesn't concern me as much because they've turned into terrible teams but it's something I doubt many foresaw before the season began.

[redsbengalsbucks]

You seem to forget that the brownies play pitt tough even when they suck, dont count out a loss to them also.