Jump to content

The Best Defense in the NFL -Zimmer, Guenther, Marvin Lewis?


GapControl

Recommended Posts

I want to take some time before Thursday night football kicks off to set the record straight on how the NFL ranks team defense. I also want to clarify how the media reports on team defenses to the fanbase.

Everyone who watches profootball hears the term "Overall Best Defense". Right? How about this one: " They are in the top 5 of Total Defense". Or how about " The Bengals have been in the top 10 defenses" four out of the last six years. (Straight from the .com)

I`m sure we have all heard these terms used countless times.

Here comes the rub.

It is all hogwash. Not only is it hogwash, it is completely purposeful hogwash. You are being mislead by the media in order to drum up support for your teams. Or to help create a mystique about certain favored franchises. The stats reflect YARDS per GAME allowed.

I was first turned on to this notion while listening to Dave Lapham and Bob Trumpy one night, probably 10 years ago or more.

What coaches know and the fanbase wants to know is what does the Team Defense allow in SCORING per game? That is to say, how many points are being scored by touchdown, field goal and extra point. (Safety doesn`t count).

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^This year`s Bengals defense is about middle of the NFL. ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Here are the modern day greatest defenses ever: The 2000 Baltimore Ravens and the 1985 Chicago Bears.

2000 Ravens

10.3 points per game 165 total points in 16 games

1985 Bears

12.4 points per game 198 total points in 16 games

Just for comparison, the Seahawks were Superbowl champions last year, led by their defense.

14.4 points per game 231 total points in 16 games

So how about this years Bengals?

23.3 per game

How about 2012? 19.9 per game

And 2011? 20 per game

2010? - 24.7 per game

2009?- 18.2 (AFC North Champs)

2008?- 22.8

2007?- 24.1

So, anyone know what year Mike Zimmer showed up?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It is all hogwash. Not only is it hogwash, it is completely purposeful hogwash. You are being mislead by the media in order to drum up support for your teams. Or to help create a mystique about certain favored franchises. The stats reflect YARDS per GAME allowed.

What coaches know and the fanbase wants to know is what does the Team Defense allow in SCORING per game? That is to say, how many points are being scored by touchdown, field goal and extra point. (Safety doesn`t count).

Here are the modern day greatest defenses ever: The 2000 Baltimore Ravens and the 1985 Chicago Bears.

2000 Ravens

10.3 points per game 165 total points in 16 games

1985 Bears

12.4 points per game 198 total points in 16 games

Just for comparison, the Seahawks were Superbowl champions last year, led by their defense.

14.4 points per game 231 total points in 16 games

"Hogwash?" Ehhh...not so much. If so you would expect a significant difference between defenses measured by points and defenses measured by years. But that isn't the case with the three teams you cite. Here are their rankings by the "hogwash" standard ranking method:

1985 Bears: 2

2000 Ravens: 1

2013 Seahawks: 1

All stats have their flaws, and you're right that yards allowed only tells you so much. Points allowed as well, since that usually doesn't sort out points scored when the D isn't even on the field. They're useful measures, but hardly the be all and end all.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hoosier, I think what you are seeing is how the number 1 defense in preventing scoring, which all three defenses were their respective years, predicts low yardage. In those three instances anyway.

It doesn't work the other way around. The Bengals were said to have the 31st rank defense this week in the NFL. But if you look up what they rank in terms of points given up, you see they are ranked 19th.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The point I'm making is this: an offense can churn out huge yardage numbers and not be destined to score. The way the media emphasizes total defense in yards allowed is completely misleading.

It can be but usually isn't. Take a look at the franchise index for Cincy on PFR as an example.


/>http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/cin/

In the end, while the two rankings commonly differ, they are usually close. And it does work the other way as well, look at 2010. That's normally an indication of bad teams play or lots of turnovers that put the D in tough spots.

I do agree that just looking at yards doesn't give a complete picture by any means. But no single stat does.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...