AJ Green #16 in Top Player Rankings

[ArmyBengal]

I just thought I would stir some conversation since things are dead right now.
/>http://www.nfl.com/videos/cincinnati-bengals/0ap2000000212734/Champ-Bailey-Joe-Haden-Geno-Atkins-Ike-Taylor-Eric-Berry-Jordan-Babineaux

There is also another video during the rankings reaction show where Ryan Clark (Steelers) and Ed Reed (now Texans) discuss Green.

Needless to say, this is another player the Bengals simply HAVE to find a way to hold onto.

As much as I don't think Dalton deserves much of the hate he gets, I will admit having AJ to throw to helps out.

Then again, any QB that had AJ to throw to would be much improved.

I can't wait to see what having both Eifert and Bernard on the field does for both Dalton and Green.

Thoughts ??

[HoosierCat]

I just thought I would stir some conversation since things are dead right now.
/>http://www.nfl.com/videos/cincinnati-bengals/0ap2000000212734/Champ-Bailey-Joe-Haden-Geno-Atkins-Ike-Taylor-Eric-Berry-Jordan-Babineaux

There is also another video during the rankings reaction show where Ryan Clark (Steelers) and Ed Reed (now Texans) discuss Green.

Needless to say, this is another player the Bengals simply HAVE to find a way to hold onto.

As much as I don't think Dalton deserves much of the hate he gets, I will admit having AJ to throw to helps out.

Then again, any QB that had AJ to throw to would be much improved.

I can't wait to see what having both Eifert and Bernard on the field does for both Dalton and Green.

Thoughts ??

Call me crazy but I'm not sold that the Bengals should go all out to re-sign AJ. Not if it means giving him Megatron money. (How many titles have the Lions won again?) And someone will throw megabucks at him. That said, Mikey loves his wideouts, so I hav little doubt they will break the bank for him, even if it means gutting the rest of the team.

[ArmyBengal]

If they don't resign AJ, they should look at getting a new QB.

I'm not trying to sound harsh and I actually like Dalton, but it is what it is.

I don't think Dalton would have had the success he has without a WR like Green catching some of those passes.

Do I want the team to break the bank on him ?? I'm not sure how to answer that one.

I want the team to keep him AND be able to sign some of the other guys.

Seeing as we also have Atkins, who will have the truck backed up to him, it will be difficult for them to choose.

However, this is something good teams have to deal with year in and year out.

You can't keep them all.

[HoosierCat]

I don't think any QB would have been successful in Cincy without Green, because they have not had crap in the way of offensive weapons besides him. That finally looks to be changing this season. To me, the fact that Andy and AJ have been able to carry the offense to two playoff appearances is a powerful statement about how good both of them are. That said, when I look at the names that need to be paid between now and early 2015, I find Geno and either Dunlap or MJ in front of him, and Dalton might get there too. Don't get me wrong, I want to keep him, but if they indeed can't pay everyone, then someone will be walking away.

[AMC]

I think the new rookie salary structure has totally reset how teams build. Yes, it makes it hard on 4+ year veterans looking for big contracts, but plays in favor of the 1-4 year players who are the cornerstones of their teams. Teams can lock up their Top 6 players to larger contracts, the next 10-15 to somewhat large contracts, then use the draft to cycle through the middle roster every 3-4 years at minimum salaries. The rest of the roster consists of vets on smaller contracts to fill gaps. This makes for tough sledding for the players who are in that second tier who are looking for top tier money (MJ, Dunlap, Dalton). In the end I think they sign with the Bengals at the appropriate slot because other teams will slot them the same in most cases (see Big Andre). All in all, I would be very surprised if the Bengals do not throw large contracts at Geno and AJ. The trick in the new system, for teams to win consistently, will be for rookies to produce early on small contracts, and be judicious on whom among the rookies every year are the cornerstones. The track record with UDFAs will also play an important roll. Will this drop the overall talent level in the league? That is yet to be seen, but a new reliance on rookies and low-price veterans seems to be manifesting itself.

[ArmyBengal]

The only player at this point I would put ahead of Green is Atkins.

I don't think they keep both MJ and Dunlap after this season and I would rather either of them leave before Green.

Having Atkins makes the DE's we bring in better, just like Green makes it easier for WR's.

I don't think there are other players on the roster that can say the same thing.

They can't keep them all I don't think and have said this is something the same contenders deal with year in and year out.

This is a team that is going to let some big name guys go at some point in order to be able to afford the rest of the roster.

Atkins and Green are my top two to keep however, with Dalton right in that mix.

[HoosierCat]

That is yet to be seen, but a new reliance on rookies and low-price veterans seems to be manifesting itself.

Yup -- and the temptation has to be strong to not give out big bucks deals and instead cycle through the top of the roster. Theoretically that should depress the number of top dollar deals since teams will be much more reluctant to hand them out, and we seemed to see that play out this offseason. However, the league's two most notorious spenders were, as COB pointed out a while back, on the sidelines, DC and Dallas. So we'll see how well the dynamic holds next year.

Regarding Green, maybe I'm just lowering my expectations. The Bengals have never, ever been a "set the market" team, with the possible exception of the Palmer extension (and look how that worked out). So I'm not expecting them to retain guys like Green or Atkins. I guess I should just enjoy it while it lasts.

[ArmyBengal]

Well, if Mike Brown expects to keep selling tickets, getting rid of Atkins and/or Green will result in tickets not being renewed.

Seriously, I think the fan backlash will be substantial. They finally have back to back playoff appearances and the looks of a commitment to win.

If that commitment is questioned by the fans, which letting their 2 best players leave would result in, I expect many blackouts in the coming years.

[HoosierCat]

Maybe. Imagine this scenario: no new deals get done this year, which by all reports appears to be where they're headed. Next year, they franchise Geno. He leaves in FA in 2015 and they franchise Green. Depending on who is up in 2016 they might even tag Green again. So counting this year we get 2 more years of Geno and at least 3 of Green. As long as they are successful in developing replacements, and they have some time, I don't think there will be a mass fan revolt.

I'm not saying that's what they should do, but it has to be tempting for a franchise that has always resisted shelling out top dollar. What surprised me this year was the extent to which that line of thought appeared to infect the whole league. There were even a few player gripes about collusion, but in hindsight its a natural outcome of the new CBA. Expensive rookie contracts gave vets leverage. Now the owners hold all the cards, as long as too many teams don't break ranks. That suggests it might be less expensive than I think to keep guys like Atkins and Green. Or they could be the exceptions that lire out the "old money" style offers.

[ArmyBengal]

I certainly think it will be interesting to see how it plays out.

If the assumption is that all of those drafted players pan out, then I can see that becoming more frequent.

However, we all know that's not the case and it only takes one team who feels they are "close" to overpay for a guy like Green or Atkins.

I absolutely guarantee that some team is just waiting for the Bengals to let them hit the market.

Breaking ranks AND banks will be the name of the game.

[AMC]

Maybe. Imagine this scenario: no new deals get done this year, which by all reports appears to be where they're headed. Next year, they franchise Geno. He leaves in FA in 2015 and they franchise Green. Depending on who is up in 2016 they might even tag Green again. So counting this year we get 2 more years of Geno and at least 3 of Green. As long as they are successful in developing replacements, and they have some time, I don't think there will be a mass fan revolt.

I'm not saying that's what they should do, but it has to be tempting for a franchise that has always resisted shelling out top dollar. What surprised me this year was the extent to which that line of thought appeared to infect the whole league. There were even a few player gripes about collusion, but in hindsight its a natural outcome of the new CBA. Expensive rookie contracts gave vets leverage. Now the owners hold all the cards, as long as too many teams don't break ranks. That suggests it might be less expensive than I think to keep guys like Atkins and Green. Or they could be the exceptions that lire out the "old money" style offers.

It will be interesting to see how free agents begin to view the tags. In the past, at the urging of their agents, they hated them. Now as superfluous free agent contracts may be going away, will free agents accept the tags more readily? Case in point, MJ on his cap is well above the going rate for free agent DEs. If there is a situation where players could get multiple tags in consecutive years that may be a great "short-term" contract option, especially while "Top 5" salaries at positions are still based on past elevated salary levels.

Question: what will the tag numbers look like in coming years as overall salaries decline? Do we expect tag numbers to correspondingly decline as well?

[HoosierCat]

They will probably drift a bit lower but position will be key. The top 5 QBs are always going to be getting stupid money. Corners, wideouts and DEs too. OTOH RBs don't get paid any more unless they are uber-special (think Adrian Peterson) and the OT market looked pretty depressed this offseason, which can't bode well if you're an offensive lineman. I haven't seen a lot of big numbers associated with safety or LB lately, though I could easily have missed something.

I do suspect there will be a more severe drop off between top 5 and top 10. Under the old system a lot of OK-but-not-great FAs got "overpaid" just because they were the best available at an important position like corner (think the Lions signing Dry freakin' Bly for 5 years, $25 million back in 2003). There will be a lot less of that.