PFF: Atkins Deserves DPOY Consideration

[HoosierCat]

Good read. And impossible to argue with.

/>https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/11/26/geno-atkins-dpoy-candidate/

Geno Atkins: DPOY Candidate

Khaled Elsayed | 2012/11/26

Is it J.J. Watt or is it Von Miller?

That’s what it boils down to right when you look at defensive player of the year. They are having what can only be described as seasons for the ages, and are the only two that deserve to be in conversation right now, right? There’s nobody else?

Well I beg to differ. You see there’s one guy who is playing at just as high a level, only it’s not the guy you think I’m talking about. It’s Geno Atkins.

Playing In Cincinnati

When you read national media about a particular team trends develop. The same names tend to always be mentioned. When I read about Cincinnati I hear about how Andy Dalton is overrated or underrated depending on how he played that week, how (understandly) excellent A.J. Green is, and about the redemption that is Vontaze Burflict. Heck, I even hear about the ramifications of the trade of Carson Palmer.

But one thing I don’t hear is that Geno Atkins is the best defensive tackle in football. I hear that he’s very good and a Pro Bowl candidate, but to be honest that’s an insult to the man at this stage.

He’s not just the best player at his position in the league, he’s a genuine contender for Defensive Player of the Year and everyone out there needs to wake up and start taking notice.

What Makes Him A Candidate

We first started grading every player on every play back in 2008. Since then I’ve seen a lot of very good seasons and quite a few great ones. But I haven’t seen anything like this from a defensive tackle. Atkins already has a grade of +49.1, putting the previous best grade of Kyle Williams in 2010 (+44.2) to shame. He’s done that by making play after play in every phase of the game, with this being one instance where the stats do not lie. I mean take a look at the following accomplishments;

- With 51 quarterback disruptions has more combined sacks, hits and hurries through 12 games than any DT has managed in a season since we started grading.

- Leads all defensive tackles with 21 defensive stops in the run game.

- Has the highest pass rushing productivity score of all defensive tackles. His score is bettered by only five defenders in the league, and J.J. Watt isn’t one of them.

Words can’t do justice to how much of an achievement that last one is. Defensive tackles aren’t meant to create that much pressure, and defensive ends would kill for those numbers. His consistency (he’s graded positively in every game this year) is off the charts.

His Challengers

It’s thankless task trying to compare a 4-3 outside linebacker to a 4-3 defensive tackle. By the nature of the positions they play they’ll find themselves in different matchups with more things expected of them. It’s why pitching a defensive tackles stats against a defensive ends or outside linebacker is always going to end up badly for the DT unless they have a whole lot of hype behind them (see the rookie year of Ndamukong Suh). Only Atkins bucks that trend. I know a lot of people will think that with Aldon Smith picking up so many sacks (even if five were a combination of being unblocked or cleaning up a flushed quarterback) that he’s a slam dunk pick. But take this into consideration; Atkins has generated pressure on 15.4% of defensive snaps, while Smith is 14.7% (with his performance yesterday yet to be counted). Smiths’ number is impressive but for Atkins to better that?

That’s why when the PFF team put forward their list of candidates for our defensive player of the year, Atkins will be atop of mine. It’s not a tip of my hat to an underappreciated, underdog. It’s an acknowledgment that Watt, Miller and Smith aren’t the only ones having seasons for the ages.

[Spor_tees]

J.J. Watt and Geno Atkins are neck and beck to me. The winner might come down to who's team ends up with the best record. Houston has a good head start on the Bengals, so who knows?

[Earendil]

Mike Brown needs to give Geno a blank check.

[Spor_tees]

Mike Brown needs to give Geno a blank check.

Haha he wouldn't be able to write it for much without overdrawing, Mikey boy keeps all of his money under his mattress.

[Kazkal]

Geno needs to be resigned day 1and of the offseason the longer u wait the more $$$it he gets...this guy very well may end up one best dts of all time of look how prductive hes been in 3and seasons

Ps Mike brown needs to not ball him first offer make 5th highest paid dt

Wait till hes a FA he'll be the highest paid DT

[walzav29]

This is starting to make me nervous. He should already be extended. The thing that will end the growth of this young team would be franchising him and then letting him walk. These guys CAN'T leave

AJ Green

Geno Atkins

Andy Dalton

Those are the pillars, and must be paid accordingly.

[ArmyBengal]

There is no way in hell they let Atkins go.

If they do, the organization should be blasted without end.

Oh yeah, great read Hoosier. Thanks !!!

[HoosierCat]

This is starting to make me nervous.

It's made me nervous for a while. Fortunately for our frugal FO the price for elite DTs has dropped in recent years. Two years ago the franchise tag for a DT was $12.5 million. It will be $8.3 million in 2013. If the Bengals are smart they'll drop a big offer, like a five-year $50 million extension, on him after this year.

Of course, it take two to tango and if Atkins is set on testing FA after 2013 there's not much the team can do aside from ready the franchise tag. If they are somehow stupid enough to let him into FA untagged in March 2014, and he's still playing like he is now, wave goodbye. Someone like Jerry Jones or Snyderbrenner will drop a Haynesworth-style $100 million-plus offer in front of him.

My guess is that, again assuming that Geno, Andy and AJ all keep playing at a high level, they'll all end up getting paid. But based on the last offseason, the FO's anxiety over the price tag will cause them to shy away from re-signing not-elite-but-expensive guys like Moobs, Dunlap and MJ. Hopefully I'm wrong and they step up to keep all the core guys, but that's the sense I have now.

But ehre will be plenty of time to mull that in the offseason, For now it's time to beat the Bolts.

[ArmyBengal]

Wow, how nice is it to have a couple of guys on the team that are considered the best at their position ??

This is a problem I don't mind having.

[Sea Ray]

As a Bengal fan who doesn't want our players to price themselves out of town, do we really want him winning Player of the Year now?

[ArmyBengal]

I don't want to see any scenario where we drafted guys, saw them develop into great players and then watch them walk.

The organization needs to get creative with their contracts.

[101Airborne]

I don't want to see any scenario where we drafted guys, saw them develop into great players and then watch them walk.

The organization needs to get creative with their contracts.

And there's the rub. We almost never sign big time FA guys because, supposedly, we want to build through the draft and develop our own talent. Then we promptly let that talent walk out the front door in FA and sign cheap FAs ourselves. Why? So we don't 'overpay' for player contracts, either in FA or from own own talent. So we end up with this stupid cycle where we let great talent walk, and keep/sign guys on the cheap. While I don't want us in a situation like the Steelers are often in with their cap issues, we are almost constantly well under the cap. The whole thing is maddening.

Also, I know I'm not telling you or anyone else anything they don't already know. Just needed to vent about this particular subject.

[ArmyBengal]

And there's another rub, because it's only recently they have had extra money to spend. The Bengals usually spend pretty close to the cap and now they will have no choice to continue doing just that. So people that think they are going to be able to get this done simply because of the rule change are going to be disappointed. It's going to take more creativity with how they structure their contracts.

I think Hoosier commented about how they front load contracts and while that might be a good thing in one regard, if they want to keep more of those players, they may want to consider a backloaded deal or think about how much of the salary is going to be guaranteed.

Anyway around, they will have to do something to keep guys like Atkins and Green, knowing Dalton is also going to be needing taken care of. That's just the high end guys.

I also agree that they need to figure something out about keeping the talent they build through the draft with.

Maybe they just mean, build through the draft and hope to win a Super Bowl within 4 years ?!?!

[Stripes]

[re] SIGN 'EM

[101Airborne]

And there's another rub, because it's only recently they have had extra money to spend. The Bengals usually spend pretty close to the cap and now they will have no choice to continue doing just that. So people that think they are going to be able to get this done simply because of the rule change are going to be disappointed. It's going to take more creativity with how they structure their contracts.

I think Hoosier commented about how they front load contracts and while that might be a good thing in one regard, if they want to keep more of those players, they may want to consider a backloaded deal or think about how much of the salary is going to be guaranteed.

Anyway around, they will have to do something to keep guys like Atkins and Green, knowing Dalton is also going to be needing taken care of. That's just the high end guys.

I also agree that they need to figure something out about keeping the talent they build through the draft with.

Maybe they just mean, build through the draft and hope to win a Super Bowl within 4 years ?!?!

I didn't look up the numbers for cap space year by year so my comment about them being well under a lot is probably confirmation bias on my part, and if so, I retract that particular gripe. I don't think they'll have to do too much to keep Dalton, but Mikey needs to open up the checkbook and pay AJ and Geno with a sensible but very fair deal. I hate reading articles about solid Bengals players beign irked because they got a low ball offer. It might seem like good business sense, but what the hell is a player supposed to think when they work their ass off and get handed two tickets to Chuck E Cheese for their effort?

As for building through the draft in the hopes of winning it all within four years, it sure does seem that's what they are thinking sometimes, even if it is totally absurd!

[skyline]

Apparently, we've been watching two completely different teams, because I feel that they do an excellent job re-signing their own guys.

They re-worked contracts for Palmer, Chad, along with other major important names and they were typically proactive in signing them early so you didn't have any last-second drama. They did a good job of paying Reggie Nelson this off-season even though they weren't able to get it done before the FA period began.

Sure, some guys have gotten away (Jonathan Joseph, Justin Smith, etc.), but that's the case with every team. You can't afford to keep everyone and with the way people overpay free agents in the NFL, some guys are just going to have to walk, and a team that drafs well and makes intelligent signings can absorb those losses. Losing Joseph really sucked, but I can't see that it's caused any serious long-term issues with our roster. We certainly missed him last season when the injury bug hit, but just one season later we have ridiculous depth at the position.

I would also suggest that re-signing free agents will become increasingly easier if the Bengals can continue to show that they're a team on the rise. The stigma that playing in Cincinnati is a death sentence seems to be changing.

[ArmyBengal]

The comment about winning within 4 years was a poor attempt at humor.

That being said, I can't really complain about what has happened to this point.

JJoe is the lone exception to that, but that was more out his desire to leave and being bitchy.

However, the conversation all along was, "They can't afford to keep both JJoe and Hall". If they couldn't afford to pay two players who weren't considered the best at thier position, how do they keep two of them now when neither of them play QB ?? I'm simply hoping they have come off of that line of thought. I think it's still more than possible when considering some of the other contracts they will get rid of.

There's still more however. Do they get rid of or keep Andre Smith ?? What about Gresham, Maualuga, Dunlap and others ?? I'm not worried about my own personal feelings about those players, but how the organization views them. How those other players are viewed may go a long way to determine how the others are handled.

[101Airborne]

Apparently, we've been watching two completely different teams, because I feel that they do an excellent job re-signing their own guys.

They re-worked contracts for Palmer, Chad, along with other major important names and they were typically proactive in signing them early so you didn't have any last-second drama. They did a good job of paying Reggie Nelson this off-season even though they weren't able to get it done before the FA period began.

Sure, some guys have gotten away (Jonathan Joseph, Justin Smith, etc.), but that's the case with every team. You can't afford to keep everyone and with the way people overpay free agents in the NFL, some guys are just going to have to walk, and a team that drafs well and makes intelligent signings can absorb those losses. Losing Joseph really sucked, but I can't see that it's caused any serious long-term issues with our roster. We certainly missed him last season when the injury bug hit, but just one season later we have ridiculous depth at the position.

I would also suggest that re-signing free agents will become increasingly easier if the Bengals can continue to show that they're a team on the rise. The stigma that playing in Cincinnati is a death sentence seems to be changing.

I agree wholeheartedly with the idea that as long as we draft well and make intelligent FA moves, we don't have a ton to worry about in letting some guys walk. This past offseason is one of the best I've ever seen out of the Bengals since I've been watching them, no question, and for that they get great props. Their most recent activities have had a lot more positive than negative and that is completely reflected in the team's performance as a whole.

I think letting J.Joe. go was a huge mistake though. Even if our corners are looking okay now, I think we put ourselves in a bad position and ended up doing the whole FA scrapheap thing to patch it up, which I don't really like. I also didn't like the Law Firm signing. One week I think I'm wrong about the guy and the next he looks like he might as well be a carbon copy of Benson. Glad they took care of the Reggie Nelson signing in a somewhat timely fashion.

Just so no one thinks I'm the Moe is We sort, I've a ton of hope. I think if we beat the Steelers at Heinz we'll be playoff bound. I couldn't be more estatic that many of our off season descisions are more in line with building a winning team. Hopefully the FO will continue to improve the way things are done. Even with all that though it still feels at times like the spectre of the things that caused us to be terrible forever is still lurking around.

[skyline]

The comment about winning within 4 years was a poor attempt at humor.

That being said, I can't really complain about what has happened to this point.

JJoe is the lone exception to that, but that was more out his desire to leave and being bitchy.

However, the conversation all along was, "They can't afford to keep both JJoe and Hall". If they couldn't afford to pay two players who weren't considered the best at thier position, how do they keep two of them now when neither of them play QB ?? I'm simply hoping they have come off of that line of thought. I think it's still more than possible when considering some of the other contracts they will get rid of.

There's still more however. Do they get rid of or keep Andre Smith ?? What about Gresham, Maualuga, Dunlap and others ?? I'm not worried about my own personal feelings about those players, but how the organization views them. How those other players are viewed may go a long way to determine how the others are handled.

It's all going to depend on the kind of money they demand in free agency which will in turn determine who we go after in the draft. Outside of Dalton, Green, and Atkins, I don't think anyone on this roster is irreplacable. And, many would probably argue against Dalton other than the fact that he has such a good rapport with the guys and I don't want to have to start the grooming process all over again.

That's not to say anything against guys like Whitworth who may also belong on that list due to their combination of play and leadership presence on the team. However, I'm thinking more along the lines of rookies that came in reasonably priced and are about to have some significantly larger contracts in the near future.

As a side note, isn't it a bit comical how worried people were about losing Rucker and Fanane? Oh, and the freakout over our offensive line situation when Wharton went down? It's nice to finally have a team with some depth.

[HoosierCat]

Sky's right that the Bengals have never hesitated to hand big deals to guys like Carson and Chad. They have always been willing to pony up blue-chip contracts to top talent at key offensive skill positions: QB, T, No. 1 WR and bell-cow RB. Rip the organization like Dillon or Pickens, become a human clown show like Ochobozo, it doesn't matter, they'll still pay you.

Other offensive positions? Not so much, as guys like Steinbach, TJ and Lo Neal found out. And on defense, top-shelf deals have been vanishingly rare. Red-chip deals like Geathers, Peko and Nelson, yes. But Hall is probably the closest they've come and even his deal is $2 million less than the franchise amount for CBs. So it will be very, very interesting (at least to me) to see how they deal with the cost of keeping Atkins, MJ and Dunlap together. FWIW in his chat today Joe Reedy opined that they will not re-sign all three and intimated that Dunlap is the guy outside looking in right now, at least with the coaches. While he is listed No. 1 on the depth chart Geathers has been getting the starts recently in an effort to get Carlos to step up, which he has not.

OTOH, he also pointed to what he thought the starting point for MJ's contract talks would be, Trent Cole's 6-year, $59.3 million ($13 million guaranteed) deal, and he doubts that they would go there. For the record, while I like MJ, I don't think I like him at $10 million a year.

[ArmyBengal]

No they surely haven't balked at handing Carson and Chad deals, but as I made mention of, I think this team finds itself in a new position with more than simply two players needing to be taken care of that are higher level players. I know they can't keep them all, but it will interesting to see how it all works out in the end.

[cHaD711Johnson]

Letting JJoe go was bad because he was a Top 5 guy at his position, who was entering his prime. It's always bad to let a guy like that who you've drafted go.

[HoosierCat]

Just for kicks & giggles I went through the salary numbers at sportrac. According to them here are the cap hits for all the guys in the last year of their deals:

Smith: $7.5 million

Geathers: $6.2 million

Clements: $5.5 million

Lawson: $2.1 million

MJ: $1.6 million

Faine: $1.4 million

Sims: $1.4 million

Huber: $1.3 million

Rey: $1.3 million

Skuta: $1.2 million

Harris: $1.2 million

Maualuga: $1.1 million

Leonard: $1.0 million

Pacman: $950,000

Crocker: $825,000

Newman: $825,000

Roland: $765,000

Gilberry: $700,000

Quinn: $615,000

Tate: $573,000

Miles: $540,000

Peerman: $540,000

Hawkins: $465,000

That's roughly $40 million. According to the last PFT update the Bengals were currently $9 million under the 2012, which they will almost certainly carry over into next year. So the Bengals will go into 2013 with something in the neighborhood of $50 million in cap space. (Of course, once you subtract the rookie pool and the injury reserve they're hard up against the cap )

[Spor_tees]

That 9 million they saved could count towards escalators, injury settlements, and contract extensions.

[Kazkal]

Of course, it take two to tango and if Atkins is set on testing FA after 2013 there's not much the team can do aside from ready the franchise tag. If they are somehow stupid enough to let him into FA untagged in March 2014, and he's still playing like he is now, wave goodbye. Someone like Jerry Jones or Snyderbrenner will drop a Haynesworth-style $100 million-plus offer in front of him.

Would be risky for Geno Because that would be 2 years without a long term contract (1 year left + franchise not to mention :P/> I would keep franchising him until couldn't franchise him no more.)I think aslong as the owner doesn't insult him,If we come at him a year early I think he'd be willing to tango.

It's all going to depend on the kind of money they demand in free agency which will in turn determine who we go after in the draft. Outside of Dalton, Green, and Atkins, I don't think anyone on this roster is irreplacable. And, many would probably argue against Dalton other than the fact that he has such a good rapport with the guys and I don't want to have to start the grooming process all over again.

Well I think Dunlap would be hard to replace but I'd be happy to give him Geathers paycheck ^.^

PS,For comment he should already be resigned,you can't extend a player until after their 3rd year now.