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Cin -4.5 vs Cleve week 1


walzav29

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Vegas odds are based on perception, not reality. And here’s the perception:

1)Cleveland finished strong last year.

2)Cincinnati finished last in the division last year.

3)Cincinnati lost their top three marquee players (Chad, T.O., Palmer).

4)Cincinnati is starting a rookie QB.

5)Cincinnati has a rookie OC… with limited time to teach a new offense due to the lockout.

Considering that Cincinnati gets 3 points off the bat because it's an away game… I’m surprised it's not -6 or worse.

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Vegas odds are based on perception, not reality. And here’s the perception:

1)Cleveland finished strong last year.

2)Cincinnati finished last in the division last year.

3)Cincinnati lost their top three marquee players (Chad, T.O., Palmer).

4)Cincinnati is starting a rookie QB.

5)Cincinnati has a rookie OC… with limited time to teach a new offense due to the lockout.

Considering that Cincinnati gets 3 points off the bat because it's an away game… I’m surprised it's not -6 or worse.

Though I don't disagree with the spread too much.

Cleveland has new coach, OC, DC

Cleveland has no wr.

Cleveland has Colt McCoy as their QB. He only has like 6 starts. Edge a tad to cleveland.

Bengals finished strong last year.(Won last 2)

Browns lost their last 4 games and 6 of their last 8 including a loss to the Bengals.

Cleveland doesn't have any marquee players (Minus the Madden cover guy, Hillis will miss 6 games this year)

Oh - and their coveted punter tore his achilles preparing to punt.

Bengals will win that game.

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Bengals will win that game.

I think so too. But like I said... Vegas doesn't deal in reality. They deal in perception. The odds are based on how they expect voting to go, not who they expect to win.

And while your list of Browns problems may be true... they are not nearly as obvious to the public. The Bengals only won 4 games last year, the Carson Palmer thing was a ton of bad publicity, combined with the loss of their #1 and #2 WRs (Simpson and Caldwell's performances in the last couple of games are not well known), so the average person will see the Bengals as a square one rebuild.

That's the perception. And until they win a few games, they are going to be big underdogs.

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Bengals will win that game.

I think so too. But like I said... Vegas doesn't deal in reality. They deal in perception. The odds are based on how they expect voting to go, not who they expect to win.

And while your list of Browns problems may be true... they are not nearly as obvious to the public. The Bengals only won 4 games last year, the Carson Palmer thing was a ton of bad publicity, combined with the loss of their #1 and #2 WRs (Simpson and Caldwell's performances in the last couple of games are not well known), so the average person will see the Bengals as a square one rebuild.

That's the perception. And until they win a few games, they are going to be big underdogs.

I agree 100%.

Ill keep an eye on that spread, maybe put a couple few sawbucks on it.

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