Your 2010 Comp Pick Scorecard v2

[TJJackson]

Note1: Signing free agents who were on your own team at the end of the previous season does not impact comp picks (ala Cedric Benson and Chris Crocker)

Note2: Max of 4 comp picks can be awarded to any one team

Note3: The value of the comp pick is determined primarily by the per-season average of the contract signed

Note4: Restricted free agents are not counted towards comp picks

so

Gain 4th round pick for loss of OT Stacey Andrews

Gain 7th round pick for loss of QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (2m avg)

Gain 3rd round pick for loss of WR TJ Housmanzadeh

Lose 4th round pick for signing WR Laveranues Coles (Andrews and Coles cancel out)

Lose 7th round pick for signing QB JT O'Sullivan (2m avg)

Gain 7th round pick (very iffy) for loss of LB Corey Mays

bottom line guess

1-3rd round pick

1-7th round pick

[TJJackson]

I was unable to edit the original topic any more - I guess after a certain period of time edits are no longer allowed - so I opened this new one instead

Also, I am guessing that Corey Mays signed a fairly low dollar contract, but until the per year average dollars is known, the 7th round award is a pure guess on my part, and really, probably less than 50% likely. I'll edit that when the contract terms are disclosed.

[whizzo]

but we will get one, right?

[TJJackson]

not necessarily, whizzo

this represents my personal best guess based on FA signings thus far

[whizzo]

so we may not get one for Mays? too bad. eh, a 7th rounder isn't the world. we can use the extra 3rd rounder though

[TJJackson]

TJ Houshmanzadeh was a 7th rounder

Tom Brady was a 6th rounder

Terrell Davis was a 6th rounder

CB Cortland Finnegan was a 7th rounder

Marques Colston was a 7th rounder

[whizzo]

quite so. do you want me to list all the 7th rounders who didn't turn into standouts?

[TJJackson]

no....do you want to argue that an additional free 7th round pick is inconsequential?

[whizzo]

absolutely not. but i do think that the chances of getting a future starter from a 3rd round pick are higher than achieving the same with a 7th rounder.

[Kazkal]

Ndukwe was a 7th and i'm more then happy with him

[BengalPimp]

quite so. do you want me to list all the 7th rounders who didn't turn into standouts?

That would take forever.....

[HAPPYJAQ]

Ndukwe was a 7th and i'm more then happy with him

...And he was the 253rd player selected out of 255, so he was a Comp pick. Ahmad Bradshaw was also a Comp pick that year.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_NFL_Draft

On a related note, the Bengals used the 3rd round Comp pick that we got for losing Steinbach on Andre Caldwell last year.

[icehole3]

we may get an extra seventh-round pick for Bryan Robinson.

[icehole3]

sorry didnt realize you guys are talking about next year

[jditty47]

let me be the first to say we aren't gonna get a draft pick for Mays. lol.

[TJJackson]

Depends on the per year average dollars on his contract, JDitty.

If they are high enough, we'll earn a 7 for him. As I said, i was guessing, and will not have a good idea til the contract terms are released

[Whur CHad At?]

I heard Mays signed for $7 mill a year because he is such a ST stand out right TJ?

[TJJackson]

Make sure you share a little or whatever you're on with us all, WCA

[Whur CHad At?]

It's the best money can buy...

[TJJackson]

Clearly

[Whur CHad At?]

You must be on good s**t as well if you think we will get a comp pick for Mays. Might be one of the dumbest things I have ever heard.

[TJJackson]

Now that we've got the mandatory maniacal ravings interlude out of the way (thanks WCA!) here's some info about 2009

I saw this pointed out by CTrent yesterday and decided to mention it today. A fellow who has had a good track record for a few year predicting compensatory picks has his prediction for this year out

http://forums.kffl.com/showthread.php?t=247418

To sum, he thinks the Bengals will earn 3 picks: 1 r3 or r4, 1 r6 or r7, and a r7

I think it will be more like 1 r3 and a r6 or r7 - two picks total

[Whur CHad At?]

I will agree with the experts on this one.

[ArmyBengal]

Good thread TJ, thanks for keeping it up !!!

[HairOnFire]

I considered mentioning earlier in the thread the slight chance the Bengals get a late round comp pick for Alex Stepanovich, but due to the complete lack of info found on what needed to happen I decided not to mention anything. Good thing too, because the answers finally provided are messy.

From the link....

"The most difficult part about projecting the comp picks is determining all of the cutoff points – the minimum value needed to qualify and the value ranges for the comp picks in each round of the draft. The comp picks awarded in previous years suggest that the cutoff points increase each year by a small percentage – approximately the same percentage by which the leaguewide salary cap increases. From 2007 to 2008, the cap went up 6.96 percent, so I used a 7 percent increase when estimating the cutoff points for this year’s comp picks.

Last year, the lowest-paid player who is known to have qualified for the NFL’s comp equation was Michael Myers, who signed for $825,000 per season and saw significant playing time. The highest-paid player who is known to have not qualified was Mike Doss, who signed for $900,000 per season by saw very little playing time except on special teams. The non-qualifying player with the highest value using the compensatory formula was Chris Liwienski, who signed for $740,000 per season and played almost 90 percent of his team’s offensive snaps. This year, only one player was “on the bubble” for qualifying – Tony Richardson, who left the Vikings and signed with the Jets for $860,000 per season. However, regardless of whether Richardson qualifies, the Vikings and the Jets each signed more qualifying players than they lost, which means Richardson doesn’t affect the comp picks at all.

I’m fairly confident that the players I consider a little “above the bubble” this year (Terry Cousin, Keydrick Vincent and Danny Clark) will qualify for the equation, and that the players I consider slightly “below the bubble” (Alex Stepanovich and Aaron Glenn), will not qualify. The lowest-valued player “above the bubble,” Danny Clark, has a value in the formula that is more than 20 percent higher than that of last year’s lowest-valued qualifying player. And the highest-valued player “below the bubble,” Alex Stepanovich, has a value that is less than that of the lowest-valued qualifying player last year (Michael Myers) and less than 1 percent more than the highest-valued non-qualifying player last year (Chris Liwienski). If I’m wrong about any of those players, it will represent by far the largest or smallest increase in the minimum value needed to qualify that the NFL has used since comp picks were first awarded."

Later, the writer adds...

"If Alex Stepanovich does qualify as a player lost by Cincinnati, the Bengals would receive a seventh-round comp pick for him, between Jacksonville’s comp pick for Terry Cousin and Detroit’s net-value comp pick, and Kansas City would not get a non-compensatory pick at the end of the seventh round."