What if?

[Wraith]

Pro Football Weekly, in their last mock draft has Chris Long falling out of the top 5 to New England at #7. LINK: http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/NFLDr...08/mock2302.htm

Since it is a short drop from 7 to 9 I thought I would raise this question.

What if the draft falls like this.

1: Miami, Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College

2: St. Louis, Jake Long, OT, Michigan

3: Atlanta, Glen Dorsey, DT, LSU

4: Oakland, Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas

5: Kansas City, Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh

6: New York Jets, Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio State

7: New England, Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy

8: Baltimore, Domanique Rodgers-Crotmartie, CB, Tennessee State

9: ????

Do you take Chris Long or Sedrick Ellis? Why?

Chris Long is the top player on my draft board so I would take him rather than Ellis (who is #2) even though Ellis fills the much larger need.

[DesperateDerelict]

Do you take Chris Long or Sedrick Ellis? Why?

Chris Long is the top player on my draft board so I would take him rather than Ellis (who is #2) even though Ellis fills the much larger need.

I have never understood why everybody was so high on Chris Long. He had a great college career, and pretty good numbers at the combine, but he really shines in the intangibles - motor and character. He forcibly reminds me of a great kid that came out of Missouri a few years back....same height and weight, same speed, same motor....the kid's name was Justin Smith.

I'll take Sedric Ellis, and please pass the salt

[HoosierCat]

Do you take Chris Long or Sedrick Ellis? Why?

I'd stick with Ellis. It's not a slam-dunk, Chris Long is a helluva player, but I tend to agree with the notion that he's maxxed out. High floor, but low ceiling. Long strikes me as a perhaps slightly better version of Justin Smith.

Still, if it came down to Ellis v. Long (and it won't) and they went Long...I wouldn't complain.

[Wraith]

Justin Smith's father was a Missouri Farmer and while I am sure he was a great guy Chris Long's father is a Pro Football Hall of Famer, one of the smartest and best D-Linemen of his generation and one of the most respected men in the sport. Just like with Manning, Long has had the advatage of growing up immersed in football, his technique is far superior to Justin Smith's and he knows how to succeed in this game before even stepping onto the pratice field for the first practice.

This is not just about physical ability, it is about mental ability and desire and that is where Chris Long gets the nod over Justin Smith.

[ArmyBengal]

Yes, Chris Long may get the nod over Justin Smith, but that is neither here nor there since we now have Odom and we already know how much he and Geathers would benefit by having that interior force that Ellis would bring to the D-line.

Ellis would still be my pick without much thought to it...

WHODEY !!!

[DesperateDerelict]

Justin Smith's father was a Missouri Farmer and while I am sure he was a great guy Chris Long's father is a Pro Football Hall of Famer, one of the smartest and best D-Linemen of his generation and one of the most respected men in the sport. Just like with Manning, Long has had the advatage of growing up immersed in football, his technique is far superior to Justin Smith's and he knows how to succeed in this game before even stepping onto the pratice field for the first practice.

This is not just about physical ability, it is about mental ability and desire and that is where Chris Long gets the nod over Justin Smith.

Are you serious? Wraith, normally we're on the same page, but I've got to call you on this one.

How similar are you to your Dad? Your grandfather? Are your sons "Mini-me Wraiths"? Arguing human pedigree is like arguing eugenics - you're not goin' to win, so don't start.

Chris Long, Virginia

Height: 6-3. Weight: 272.

40 Time: 4.73. Benchx225: Did Not Lift.

Vertical 34. Nickname: Howie Jr.

Justin Smith

Height: 6-4. Weight: 275.

40 Time: 4.69. Benchx225: 19.

Vertical 33. Nickname: Godzilla

Look at the measurables, and watch the tapes. I'll think you'll see alot of similaries between Chris & Justin . . . probably more than between Chris & Howie.

[Wraith]

My point is that Chris Long grew up studying football with his dad the same way that Peyton studied with Archie. Howie was teaching Chris how to play the D-Line when Chris was young.

Quotes: "I wouldn't be anywhere close to where I am today without my pops," Chris Long said. "I think a lot of a football player's makeup is mental, and I've been blessed to have someone to learn from. Not just from a technical standpoint, but everything he taught me about being a hard worker, a teammate and just being a football player. He taught me there's more to it than just going out and playing football." Case in point.

"Chris takes full advantage of the fact that his dad has the same passion about football as he does," Groh said. "Howie is a tremendous resource for him as far as tips about playing the position and understanding the game. " Point #2.

"I didn't know what he was going to be," Howie Long said. "I coached him to be an offensive tackle in high school. We dropped him on the nose on defense and just turned him loose. We spent a lot of time working on technique and hands and leverage, but as it applied to offense. I wasn't sure if he'd be a blocking tight end, an outside linebacker or a defensive end. I had no idea." How many dads could work with their sons as they were growing up on technique, hands and leverage.

It is not about his dad's genetic makeup, it is about his knowledge, which noone who had not played that position in the NFL at a high level would be able to pass on.

BTW I have daughters not sons and god help them if they turn out to be mimi-Wraiths, I do plan on teach my daughters how to play basketball which is the only athletic endeavor which I have any useful knowledge. I am looking forward to teaching my daughters how to shoot a hook shot since according to the doctor they are going to be between 5'10" and 5'11"

[DesperateDerelict]

Ahhh....nurture, not nature...right?

Alot of these guys were blessed with fathers/guardians/coaches who mentored them. I don't think that, in and of itself, sets him apart.

I just happen to think there's an uncanny similarity between Justin Smith & Chris Long (btw, could you see Justin Smith in a 3-4? Well, neither can I, but the 49ers run a 3-4 - as do teams drafting #1,2, 6-8.)

Good luck with your amazons. All of my kids are now teenagers, and they're all FOR SALE !

[Wraith]

I think much of Justin's problem stemmed from the fact that he could never develop multiple moves, this is an area where Chris has a tremendous advantage because he is a technician. With Justin throughout High School and College he got by on pure power, he was stronger and a harder worker than anyone he came up against, in the NFL that was not the case and he never developed. Another advantage that Chris has is that I think he is smarter than Justin, I have no empirical evidence to support that claim but after hearing both of them speak I have come to that conclusion.

If I were to compare Chris Long to anyone I would suggest he is more like a bigger, stronger David Pollack and I think David Pollack would have been a multiple time pro bowler if not for a freak injury.

[DesperateDerelict]

Oh, well . . . nice diversion, Wraith.

Back to the original question . .

Do you take Chris Long or Sedrick Ellis? Why?

If Zimmer can use Long in his hybrid 3-1-3, then, by all means, take him.

There are DT's available later (Laws, Sims, Rubin).

Then again, there are DE-OLB hybrids left later in the draft (Groves, Avril, Howard, Davis)

Mendenhall is still on the board, or we could get Johnson, Charles, Forte, or Choice later.

Rivers is there, but there are about 562,878 230 lb linebackers in this draft.

Ryan & Williams are there, as are Phillips and Jenkins.

See...we need to, given the least chance, TRADE DOWN !!

If Ellis is there, & Carolina offers a third to jump over the Saints, we take it.

or Bidwell wants to give us the Cards 1st two picks for Mendenhall - We take it.

If Matt Ryan is there, and Atlanta offers us 3 2nds - we take it.

Otherwise, it's really up to Zimmer. I have no clue what he's doing, 'cause I have no idea how they could possibly use Antwan Odom. Here's a guy, we've already guaranteed millions to, who's 6'05"; 277 lbs, known for speed when he came out of Alabama..........sound familiar?

If we do grab Long (or Groves or Gholston or Avril or Howard) we could have Geathers on the left, Odom on the right, and the new guy backing them up? Even if Pollack's gone for good, that's alot of dinero for our DE/OLB guys.

Dang, I'm more confused than ever

It's driving me nuts

MARVIN - LET ME IN THE WAR ROOM

[HairOnFire]

Rivers is there, but there are about 562,878 230 lb linebackers in this draft.

Yeah, and they're all the same, right?

FWIW I caught part of a radio interview with an NFL scout who attended USC's ProDay. When asked which NFL player, past or present, that Rivers reminded him of the scout answered...."he's a more athletic version of Derrick Brooks."

That'll do.

[HoosierCat]

Nawrocki addresses the Chris Long question in his latest letters column...

What is it about Chris Long that has dropped him out of the top five in the estimation of NFL scouts? Your colleague, Eric Edholm, alludes to the possibility that New England may not be in love with his skill set ("The Patriots don't hate Chris Long, I promise") either, which is surprising considering the connection Belichick has to Al Groh. Obviously this comes as a shock because media outlets have been projecting him as the best player in the draft for months. I also find it interesting that PFW's Combine results show that Long ran a 4.84 40-yard dash, not the 4.75 elsewhere publicized. Have 4-3 teams downgraded him as a result, projecting him to a strong-side DE, instead of a weak-side pass rusher?

— Joe Finley

Joe,

Great questions. Bill Parcells and Bill Belichick love pedigree. Just look at some of their selections over the years, from Bobby Carpenter to Marion Barber to Dan Klecko, all of whom have fathers who played in the NFL. Both coaches are football historians and hold a deep respect for those who have come before them. They also have ties, as does Eric Mangini, to Al Groh and the Virginia football staff. Even more than most teams, they could feel very safe drafting a player with Hall of Fame bloodlines who played for a former colleague.

Honestly, I do not know that Chris Long will wind up slipping out of the top five. When that mock draft was written at the beginning of the month, that was the way I was hearing it would fall from extensive conversations with team sources. As of today, Chris Long actually seems to be gaining a little momentum.

For anyone to project him as the best player in this draft I think would be surprising —I certainly have not heard a single evaluator ever reference him as that. He is a well-trained, highly productive football player. However, as you singled out with his 40-times that we reported, which were averaged from the hand-held results at the Combine — not the best electronic time, which was initially released by the NFL to encourage players to perform at the workout — the reality is that I do NOT think Long is an elite athlete. And if you watch the tape of some of the better competition he has faced, such as Boston College and Pittsburgh and even Texas Tech, I think you’ll see that he struggled to make his presence felt as a pass rusher. As you mentioned, his best fit in a 4-3 front would be as a strong-side, base end — which still holds a lot of value, but arguably not as much as a premium pass rusher who consistently pressures the quarterback.

Bottom line: Chris Long does not show the burst to get to the quarterback off the edge on third downs, he is light and narrow-framed to play inside and he has little experience from a rush LB role. As a result, any 3-4 team that drafts him in the top 10 to be a 3-4 outside ’backer would be making a projection, which is usually a very scary proposition to make at any position in the draft’s top 10, given the investment that the selections require.

[kingwilly]

...ok, so if I get this straight, Chris Long is basicallly David Pollack plus?

Not a true DE for a 4/3 and too much risk in taking him in top 10 and then switch positions....

hooey, Chris Long will go in the top 3.

[HairOnFire]

Random thoughts....

My gut tells me that if Chris Long were black there wouldn't be any comparisons made to Justin Smith or David Pollack.

In fact, if Long were black there would probably be a so-called draftnik on this very message board claiming Long was a "Freakbeast". As it is Long seems unfairly labeled as a product of hype. A try hard guy with modest skills, right? (Bull.)

With all of that said, Long isn't the highest rated player in this draft on many boards, and as the fake GM for the Rams I can repeat my feelings about the minor misery I went through knowing I'd be passing on players I rated higher simply because Long played a position of greater need. In short, passing on Darren McFadden is one thing when your team has Steven Jackson, but passing on Glenn Dorsey and Sedric Ellis because Clifton Ryan looked better than anyone dreamed is something else.

Finally, Howie Long was yammering on my television this morning about the biggest difference between him and his son. Howie thinks a major reason for his success was due to his thick lower body. In short the thicker the body the better the base, the better the power, and the better the ability to fight through leg injuries. Howie admitted his son isn't built like he was, but felt he might grow into the same type of player after he fully matures.

[Kazkal]

I wouldn't mind the Bengals taking Chris Long if Sedrick Ellis was gone,If Ellis is on the board when bengals logo pops up on the TV Mikey better be calling in his pick right away.

Not a true DE for a 4/3 and too much risk in taking him in top 10 and then switch positions....

The only reason David Pollack was not consirdered a true 4-3 end was because of his arm length.Chris long sounds like a 4-3 end just not a pass rusher threat like dwight freeney but then again you don't have to fear teams running the ball at him.

[HoosierCat]

As it is Long seems unfairly labeled as a product of hype. A try hard guy with modest skills, right? (Bull.)

Well, yeah, that would be bull...if anyone was saying that. Nothing I've seen of Long or read of him suggests that. In fact, the consensus is that he will be a fine football player for whatever team drafts him. But just as with Keith Rivers, there may be less upside there than you might like in the top 10 of the draft. Instead, Long's seen as a "safe" pick who won't be a perennial Pro Bowler, but has a very low risk of being a total bust.

I would be perfectly happy with Long at 9. I always liked Justin and if we get version 2.0 I wouldn't complain a bit.

[HairOnFire]

As it is Long seems unfairly labeled as a product of hype. A try hard guy with modest skills, right? (Bull.)

Well, yeah, that would be bull...if anyone was saying that.

Well, what exactly are you guys saying?

"I have never understood why everybody was so high on Chris Long." --- Desperate Derelict

"I tend to agree with the notion that he's maxxed out. High floor, but low ceiling." --- HoosierCat

[HoosierCat]

As it is Long seems unfairly labeled as a product of hype. A try hard guy with modest skills, right? (Bull.)

Well, yeah, that would be bull...if anyone was saying that.

Well, what exactly are you guys saying?

"I have never understood why everybody was so high on Chris Long." --- Desperate Derelict

"I tend to agree with the notion that he's maxxed out. High floor, but low ceiling." --- HoosierCat

Jesus, that's weak even for you. Is it possible you can use my whole sentence???

It's not a slam-dunk, Chris Long is a helluva player, but I tend to agree with the notion that he's maxxed out.

[HairOnFire]

How about one more quote?

"He's the type of prospect you dream about." --- Ex-Titan GM Floyd Reese responding to questions about whether Long deserved consideration for the 1st overall pick

[HairOnFire]

Jesus, that's weak even for you. Is it possible you can use my whole sentence???

Is it any weaker than offering an opinion that never gets off the fence? Seriously Hoosier, which is it? Is Long a maxxed out player with a low ceiling or a helluva player who deserves the attention he's getting? Because that's the way you've flip flopped from one sentence to the next.

[HoosierCat]

Jesus, that's weak even for you. Is it possible you can use my whole sentence???

Is it any weaker than offering an opinion that never gets off the fence? Seriously Hoosier, which is it? Is Long a maxxed out player with a low ceiling or a helluva player who deserves the attention he's getting? Because that's the way you've flip flopped from one sentence to the next.

Bull. And pretty damn obvious bull to anyone who isn't dead set on being a dick for being a dick's sake.

[HairOnFire]

I'd stick with Ellis. It's not a slam-dunk, Chris Long is a helluva player, but I tend to agree with the notion that he's maxxed out. High floor, but low ceiling. Long strikes me as a perhaps slightly better version of Justin Smith.

Where have I dickishly misquoted you? Aren't those your thoughts? Aren't you the guy who claimed Long was "maxxed out" within ten words of claiming he was "a helluva player"? And unless I'm mistaken players projected to be Top 5 picks aren't often described as having low ceilings. Not to mention the fact that under the scenario presented you'd pass on Long at #9.

So where does he fall in your world? Blue chip? Red chip? Just a guy?

[jjakq27]

Justin Smith's father was a Missouri Farmer and while I am sure he was a great guy Chris Long's father is a Pro Football Hall of Famer, one of the smartest and best D-Linemen of his generation and one of the most respected men in the sport. Just like with Manning, Long has had the advatage of growing up immersed in football, his technique is far superior to Justin Smith's and he knows how to succeed in this game before even stepping onto the pratice field for the first practice.

This is not just about physical ability, it is about mental ability and desire and that is where Chris Long gets the nod over Justin Smith.

Pete Rose Jr anyone?

[HoosierCat]

Where have I dickishly misquoted you?

Oh, what, 2-3 posts back where you deliberately cut off the first half of my sentence?

Aren't you the guy who claimed Long was "maxxed out" within ten words of claiming he was "a helluva player"?

Yeah, that would be it. And the fact you cut the latter words out shows you know what I mean. Why doctor the quote if you aren't just trying to be a dick?

[HairOnFire]

Where have I dickishly misquoted you?

Oh, what, 2-3 posts back where you deliberately cut off the first half of my sentence?

All I did was cut the quote down to the most relevant bits. In short, your claim that Long is maxxed out and has a low ceiling. And that speaks directly to my point about Long being unfairly described as a try hard guy with modest skills. So maybe you could say more about why Long is supposedly maxxed out and athletically limited instead of whining about the way you're quoted.

Regardless, after you complained, which is your habit, I happily included the parts of the sentence that you feel clarifies things. But it doesn't. All it does it point out the way you praised a player in one breath, and then heavily criticized him in the next. And again, your opinion that Long should be passed on should he fall to #9 is ample proof you don't feel he's worthy of that spot. And that's true because...and I quote....."he's maxxed out. High floor, but low ceiling"

Ehhhh?