What ever Coach Lewis!

[HoosierCat]

The amont of churning isn't the key. The key is the difference in salaries. Last season the biggest loss was the modestly paid but expensive to keep Eric Steinbach, and role players like Kevin Kaesviharn and Tony Stewart. Compare that to the cap room created by allowing Justin, Thornton, B-Rob, Madieu, and Jackson to move on.

There's no cap room created by Justin, B-rob or Madieu leaving (or for that matter Landon, Caleb, or Andrews); they're all UFAs next season and already have a zero cap hit for next year. Letting Dexter and Thornton go would free up a few million more over the $30m or so they are projected to have. And don't forget, if you get your way that room will be nullified by the big cap hit for dumping Chad.

Not a chance. If the roster churns like I expect it to we'll see plenty of mid-level signings

Doubt it. Oh, there will be the annual Aging Vet DT, and the annual Guy Trying To Come Back From Injury, and the annual Underachiever In Search Of A New Start, but nothing remarkable. And no big signings, like you said. Most likely they chew up the space on resigning guys like Kyle Larson, Stacy, Landon, and Jeanty, keeping or replacing scrubs like Miller, Schlegal, and Marshall, and trying to extend the few promising young players we have (Peko, Whitworth) before they reach FA. Toss in the rookie pool and the injury reserve and annual raises for vets and we're all done.

[membengal]

The Bengals system only works if the coach in place is particularly shrewd and genius-y. I thought ML was that guy, the kind of guy who could put a stamp on an organization and make it his. He hasn't done that. If he's back for 2008 (and I expect he will be), I expect more of the same issues for 2008 as well. For better or worse, usually worse, this team is particurly dependent on its coach being brilliant. That is in part because of the lack of a real football voice at a GM position.

The kinds of coaches that would thrive in Mike Brown's system though, he seems incapable of identifying or paying. The style that would work? A domineering visionary type. Parcells. Cowher. Those kinds of guys. Because, without a GM (other than Brown), there's a real chance to control all facets of the decision-making. For some coaches, that would be a treat. For others? It's too much. It has become apparent to me, that for Lewis, it's too much. And when it becomes too much, the team tanks. We've seen that script played out many times before.

[HairOnFire]

There's no cap room created by Justin, B-rob or Madieu leaving (or for that matter Landon, Caleb, or Andrews); they're all UFAs next season and already have a zero cap hit for next year.

Worthless spin. You'd think this boards most highly regarded fake GM and capologist would realize that having no cap hit next year is exactly the point.

Letting Dexter and Thornton go would free up a few million more over the $30m or so they are projected to have. And don't forget, if you get your way that room will be nullified by the big cap hit for dumping Chad.

I don't want to dump Chad. I want him to grow up, and if he doesn't I'm willing to take whatever action might be needed. By comparison, you want to continue breast feeding his ego while writing post after post about how Marvin Lewis's failure to discipline Chad has resulted in him losing his team.

Most likely they chew up the space on resigning guys like Kyle Larson, Stacy, Landon, and Jeanty, keeping or replacing scrubs like Miller, Schlegal, and Marshall, and trying to extend the few promising young players we have (Peko, Whitworth) before they reach FA. Toss in the rookie pool and the injury reserve and annual raises for vets and we're all done.

Judging by your own words I'd say replacing players like Miller is exactly the point. Throw him into the volcano, right? Meanwhile, Schlegal is already under contract and has earned a roster spot, Marshall was a great signing but his career is almost certainly over, and with all due respect I'd say you're probably sniffing glue if you think they'll try to extend Peko or Whitworth this offseason. As for Kyle Larson, Stacy, Landon, and Jeanty....we'll see what happens but it's a good bet that many of them are as good as any alternative you could find in FA. Some will stay, some will go.

As for the injury reserve, well.....after this season you'll probably drop your complaints about that subject, right?

[HairOnFire]

The Bengals system only works if the coach in place is particularly shrewd and genius-y. I thought ML was that guy, the kind of guy who could put a stamp on an organization and make it his. He hasn't done that.

If you were so incredibly wrong about the head coach, well....what makes you think you're so right about a GM?

[HoosierCat]

Worthless spin.

Nope, just the facts. No one, with the possible exception of you, refers to contracts running out as "creating" cap room. You create cap room by cutting players under contract, as the Bengals did last offseason with Brian Simmons. The $30 million figure I've estimated their space at next offseason (based on the go-bengals.com numbers) and which I've been using for months already takes all that into account. If they cut a player like Thornton, then they will "create" more space.

As for how all these guys leaving are different from last season because of their bigger salaries...not really. The Bengals entered FA last season about $19 million under the cap. Most of the increase this year is due to the pending $8 million hike in the cap.

I don't want to dump Chad. I want him to grow up, and if he doesn't I'm willing to take whatever action might be needed. By comparison, you want to continue breast feeding his ego while writing post after post about how Marvin Lewis's failure to discipline Chad has resulted in him losing his team.

Yeah, I'm the one ranting incessantly about Chad. :lmao:

Judging by your own words I'd say replacing players like Miller is exactly the point. Throw him into the volcano, right? Meanwhile, Schlegal is already under contract and has earned a roster spot, Marshall was a great signing but his career is almost certainly over, and with all due respect I'd say you're probably sniffing glue if you think they'll try to extend Peko or Whitworth this offseason. As for Kyle Larson, Stacy, Landon, and Jeanty....we'll see what happens but it's a good bet that many of them are as good as any alternative you could find in FA. Some will stay, some will go.

Blah, blah, blah, where are all the many mid-tier signings you previously promised? Answer: aside from a few third/fourth tier Hartwell/Myers/Steponafoot types, there won't be. Just about everyone who will be here next year is either here, on IR, or will get picked in the draft. SSDY, baby.

[HairOnFire]

Worthless spin.

Nope, just the facts. No one, with the possible exception of you, refers to contracts running out as "creating" cap room.

Fair enough. In hindsight I guess I should have described your rant as worthless spin augmented with silly semantics.....a Hoosier trademark. The fact remains that all teams occasionaly create cap room by allowing veteran players to leave. The fact that you'd attempt to deny this is laughable.

You create cap room by cutting players under contract, as the Bengals did last offseason with Brian Simmons.

Congrats. You've just described one way cap room can be created. How many others can you think of?

The $30 million figure I've estimated their space at next offseason (based on the go-bengals.com numbers) and which I've been using for months already takes all that into account. If they cut a player like Thornton, then they will "create" more space.

That explanation would be confusing if I didn't already know it was worthless semantics. After all, how can the Bengals "create more space" when you've claimed they haven't created any in the first place?

The Bengals entered FA last season about $19 million under the cap.

And $30 million is more than $19 million, right? And you admit that there's the potential to "create" even more cap space, right?

Most of the increase this year is due to the pending $8 million hike in the cap.

So what? Most of last season cap room was due to an even bigger increase in the cap. The point you're incompentently addressing is whether the Bengals will have more cap room to work with this season as compared to last. And they do, even if I use your figures. So drop the spin and stop hiding behind semantics.

Blah, blah, blah, where are all the many mid-tier signings you previously promised?

Be patient. When the time comes I'm sure you'll get another chance to spin this rant.

[HoosierCat]

So drop the spin and stop hiding behind semantics.

I'm not spinning anything, as evidenced by your need to nitpick every sentence I write. You claimed that expiring contracts "create" cap space, a construction no one uses except you. You claimed this coming year would be different because the expiring contracts are so much bigger, but they aren't. And you claim next year will be different, but I bet it won't.

[membengal]

The Bengals system only works if the coach in place is particularly shrewd and genius-y. I thought ML was that guy, the kind of guy who could put a stamp on an organization and make it his. He hasn't done that.

If you were so incredibly wrong about the head coach, well....what makes you think you're so right about a GM?

I am NOT advocating for a GM, HoF. Just saying that since we don't have a GM, the coach needs to be a guy who can be comfortable running all facets of the team. A Parcells type. A glorified GM/coach type. I want the Bengals to ID that guy. I thought they had with Lewis. It turns out they have not, apparently.

[HairOnFire]

I'm not spinning anything, as evidenced by your need to nitpick every sentence I write. You claimed that expiring contracts "create" cap space, a construction no one uses except you.

In one sentence you chide me for nitpicking while in the next you engage in it. Well done.

You claimed this coming year would be different because the expiring contracts are so much bigger, but they aren't.

Well, prove me wrong. What did Steinbach make in his last season as a Bengal? And what is Justin Smith making this season? I'll wait here for your answer.

Then again, why bother scrambling for more numbers? Because we've already learned that $30 million is more than $19 million, right? And you've already admitted the Bengals can "create even more cap space" by making a few more moves, many of them expected.

[HairOnFire]

I am NOT advocating for a GM, HoF. Just saying that since we don't have a GM, the coach needs to be a guy who can be comfortable running all facets of the team. A Parcells type.

Parcells repeatedly failed in New York and in Dallas despite having more assets at his disposal than Lewis. In fact, many feel his failures in New York and Dallas were largely due to his inability to control two prima donna WR's, and it's probably not a coincidence that both of those disruptive divas are good friends of Chad.

As for running all facets of the team, didn't Dallas miss the playoffs last season due to a fumbled snap on a FGA?

[HoosierCat]

Well, prove me wrong. What did Steinbach make in his last season as a Bengal? And what is Justin Smith making this season? I'll wait here for your answer.

Yup, Justin is making more than Steiney. But the others -- Williams, Andrews, Caleb, Landon, Larson -- are all on cheapo 1-year tenders ($800k or $1.2m, depending) remember? $30m is bigger because of the rise in the cap, not because of a rush of higher salaries going out.

[HairOnFire]

Well, prove me wrong. What did Steinbach make in his last season as a Bengal? And what is Justin Smith making this season? I'll wait here for your answer.

Yup, Justin is making more than Steiney.

Really? How can that be when you seemed so sure of yourself?

But the others -- Williams, Andrews, Caleb, Landon, Larson -- are all on cheapo 1-year tenders ($800k or $1.2m, depending) remember?

Sure, but I also remember the other part of my rant too. The part about how keeping none of the Bengals free agents this offseason seemed as critical as last years attempts to lock up Steinbach, Big Willie, Levi, Big Bobby, and Justin. As for this years crop, Madieu Williams once seemed like a building block, but now seems very easily replaced. In fact, I'm strongly in favor of it. Stacey Andrews has real value and would be an asset worth keeping, but at what price? Caleb is sacrificed to the volcano, right? Landon is good, but not great...thus losing him would hurt, but how much? Larson needs to be retained, but it shouldn't cost much more than he's making now. All things considered, they'll probably keep some, lose some, and add others to the mix. Regardless, $30 million is alot more than $19 million, and they shouldn't enter free agency with their hands tied nearly as much as last season. And that was the whole point, right?

$30m is bigger because of the rise in the cap, not because of a rush of higher salaries going out.

Prove it. For starters, how much more is Justin Smith making compared to Steinbach's last season? Twice as much? Or three times as much? And how much were Kevin Kaesviharn and Tony Stewart making compared to Madieu Williams, B-Rob, and Thornton? Finally, wasn't last years cap rise larger than the 8 million being projected for the coming offseason?

[membengal]

I am NOT advocating for a GM, HoF. Just saying that since we don't have a GM, the coach needs to be a guy who can be comfortable running all facets of the team. A Parcells type.

Parcells repeatedly failed in New York and in Dallas despite having more assets at his disposal than Lewis. In fact, many feel his failures in New York and Dallas were largely due to his inability to control two prima donna WR's, and it's probably not a coincidence that both of those disruptive divas are good friends of Chad.

As for running all facets of the team, didn't Dallas miss the playoffs last season due to a fumbled snap on a FGA?

Actually that was IN the playoffs. But my point stands. They need a coach of a Parcellsian type (but not Parcells, they can't afford him). It's my opinion Lewis ain't it. I don't know who is, actually.

But if I were in the Brown clan, I would have already self-identified that I need a Type-A control-all-facts-of-team type as coach and turn them loose. They did that with Lewis, props to them. I don't think he's up to it, as it has turned out. No biggie, he turned them around a bunch and did some good things. I just think he's reached a point of diminishing returns, and the team needs someone else to push it to the next level.

Then again, I've been wrong before, so perhaps Lewis will snap out of his coaching funk and turn it around. But the blind loyalty he has paid to his assistants (a flaw Mike B has exhibited over the years, of course) has harmed him. He either needs to grow up as a coach, be cutthroat with those coaches who are failing him, learn how to manage a game better, etc., or they need to find someone else who can.

But this is a bitterly disappointing season, and, even in light of the injuries, it should have been better than this. That's all on Lewis. I am not one of those who whines about Mike Brown. I think those folks are silly. Brown gives his coaches a remarkable opportunity. He gives them massive control. Lewis isn't capitalizing on that. I want to find someone who will.

[HoosierCat]

Sure, but I also remember the other part of my rant too. The part about how keeping none of the Bengals free agents this offseason seemed as critical as last years attempts to lock up Steinbach, Big Willie, Levi, Big Bobby, and Justin.

When did they ever attempt to lock up Steinbach or Justin earlier this year? Justin was tagged and forgotten, and Eric walked without a peep. And Levi, Bobby and Willie were all extended in the summer of 2006, not last offseason. Last offseason, their main moves (on the keeper side) were tagging Justin and giving a big pile of money to Jumpy Jr., who has yet to do much to justify it.

As for this years crop, Madieu Williams once seemed like a building block, but now seems very easily replaced. In fact, I'm strongly in favor of it.

Great. Now ask yourself what's more likely: that they go hunting for some top FA safety, or plug Nduke, White or Kilmer into the spot. Why go FA hunting when they have a pile-up at the position?

Stacey Andrews has real value and would be an asset worth keeping, but at what price?

Again, great. But if they aren't going to pay going rate for Stacy, what makes you think they'll pay it for some outside FA? More likely they just draft a guy. Remember, if TJJackson's comp pick estimates are close, the Bengals will have 11, count 'em, 11 picks to play with.

Caleb is sacrificed to the volcano, right?

And I'll push him in. But Schlegal's already shown he can back up the middle, right?

Landon is good, but not great...thus losing him would hurt, but how much?

Actually, I think they keep him.

Larson needs to be retained, but it shouldn't cost much more than he's making now.

Which is still over a million a year. I wonder if we've ever had a million dollar punter before?

All things considered, they'll probably keep some, lose some, and add others to the mix.

And virtually all of those added are either here now on the PS or IR. Kilmer, Irons, and Big Toe are locks to hang around, IMHO. Hype Henderson, Tab and TJ Wright will certainly be in the mix, and if Stacy walks so will Nate Livings. Ladle on a double-digit draft crop and we are already talking about adding roughly 16 guys to the roster. We only have 11 UFAs coming in '08 and some of them will be retained.

Regardless, $30 million is alot more than $19 million, and they shouldn't enter free agency with their hands tied nearly as much as last season.

Like I said, $8 million of that expanded room is due to the cap going up. Every team gets that, so it confers no great advantage in the FA hunt. And with a bumper crop of draft picks coming up, I doubt they will be inclined to sign a bunch of FAs, especially if the team does what I think it will over the next nine weeks and ends up with 7 or 8 wins. Then it will be back to the same story as last year: tough sked, lots of injuries, gee wiz look how well we did considering, stay the course, yadda yadda yadda. SSDY.

Edited to add: Worth noting that Hobson touches on the 2008 in his latest column. Bottom line is that thanks to Leon Hall hitting incentives it looks like the Bengals are already (or will soon be) about $2m over the 2007 cap. I'm betting that number will go higher if/when the reactivate C. Perry and/or Henry, since both are likely making more than the guys they'll replace. Since any overage this year comes off next year, that $30m figure is already being whittled down. Also worth noting is that Hobson, in his other item, suggests 2008 may indeed be the year the Bengals depart from the traditional model and break the bank on a big name FA, something I will believe whern I see, but it does make some sense considering the roster tightness I outlined above.

[Spor_tees]

Well there might be even more of a bonus for the team sucking so bad this year. Not only will the draft pick be higher, but it makes it look like the free agents that were lost played a significant role in that. Thusly, it could make an impact on the decisions the NFL makes on how many and what round the Bengals compensatory draft picks are. Even if the Bengals were to get a total of 11 draft picks, there really isn't enough room for all of those guys to make the team. They would be better off grouping a few of those picks together for a higher pick and get a guy that is more likely to make an impact on the team. This team already has enough players with marginal talent that are only good enough to be back-ups. What they need at this point is starters...not fill-ins and stop gaps.

[HoosierCat]

They would be better off grouping a few of those picks together for a higher pick and get a guy that is more likely to make an impact on the team. This team already has enough players with marginal talent that are only good enough to be back-ups. What they need at this point is starters...not fill-ins and stop gaps.

That makes sense, but remember you can't trade comp picks. So any package deals have to be done with the team's original seven selections.

[HairOnFire]

And Levi, Bobby and Willie were all extended in the summer of 2006, not last offseason. Last offseason, their main moves (on the keeper side) were tagging Justin and giving a big pile of money to Jumpy Jr., who has yet to do much to justify it.

We've already had this argument. The Bengals FA strategy last season was dictated by the moves they made earlier. By locking up players they felt it was important to keep they knowingly put themselves in golden handcuffs. And there's the rub because they're simply not in the same position now. They're no longer at risk of losing 4/5ths of their starting O-line, and they're no longer at risk of losing both starting DE's.

Great. Now ask yourself what's more likely: that they go hunting for some top FA safety, or plug Nduke, White or Kilmer into the spot. Why go FA hunting when they have a pile-up at the position?

If they let Madieu walk I'd expect/hope them to sign a veteran who can play right away, probably a 2nd-tier FA, keeping their own players in the same backup roles they're now playing.

Again, great. But if they aren't going to pay going rate for Stacy, what makes you think they'll pay it for some outside FA? More likely they just draft a guy. Remember, if TJJackson's comp pick estimates are close, the Bengals will have 11, count 'em, 11 picks to play with.

Well, what's the going rate for a player like Stacey? If it's too rich they'd be smart to let him move on. If it's reasonable they'd be smart to keep him. As for the comp picks, they should free up the Bengals draft....allowing them to address whatever needs were ignored in free agency. So why act like a draft pick used on an offensive lineman is a bad thing? It's actually something you're in support of, right?

Kilmer, Irons, and Big Toe are locks to hang around, IMHO. Hype Henderson, Tab and TJ Wright will certainly be in the mix....

Five of the six players named above have spent more time being injured than playing, and the other player has already been cut once. Of the bunch only Irons is guaranteed a roster spot next season, and it's probably an even bet he'll start next season on the PUP list. All things considered, I wouldn't describe any of the other players as locks, as none are starters, only one is healthy, and the team each of these fringe players are employed by has plenty of late round picks that can be used to replace their own late round butts.

Like I said, $8 million of that expanded room is due to the cap going up. Every team gets that, so it confers no great advantage in the FA hunt.

I never claimed or implied it was an advantage. No, we're talking about no longer being at a disadvantage due to the golden handcuffs mentioned earlier. Obviously the Bengals will attempt to keep some of their own talent again, it would be stupid not to, but they'll have more options this offseason.

Also worth noting is that Hobson, in his other item, suggests 2008 may indeed be the year the Bengals depart from the traditional model and break the bank on a big name FA, something I will believe whern I see, but it does make some sense considering the roster tightness I outlined above.

There's no roster tightness. The Bengals will have more money available in free agency this year, additional options that could free up even more cap space, will have more draft picks to work with, and far fewer critical players at risk of being lost. In fact, if the Bengals feel the need to do a fairly extensive rebuild on the fly they have most of the assets needed to do so.....as long as they don't spend most of their assets and time chasing a big name FA.

[HairOnFire]

Even if the Bengals were to get a total of 11 draft picks, there really isn't enough room for all of those guys to make the team. They would be better off grouping a few of those picks together for a higher pick and get a guy that is more likely to make an impact on the team. This team already has enough players with marginal talent that are only good enough to be back-ups. What they need at this point is starters...not fill-ins and stop gaps.

Can't see it. The highest comp pick is likely to be a 3rd rounder, a pick the team would be smart to keep, as it should net them another potential starter. If true the Bengals could add four new starters on Day 1, three more than last season. The other comp picks are almost certainly going to be Day 2 picks that wouldn't have much impact on the teams ability to move up in earlier rounds. Far better to use those picks on backups or on the depleted special teams.