Conventional Draft Wisdom

[Walrus]

Anybody have thoughts about what effect having an especially strong cornerback class might have this year (or any other position that might be stronger or weaker than usual). Just seems like there are a lot of solid 1st/2nd round prospects out there at CB this year. Some teams are likely to get good value in rnds 3 and 4 as a few of these guys are bound to drop a bit. Question is, does the same thing happen at the top of the draft -- teams see the depth and target a guy in Rd 2 rather than spend their Rd 1 pick on someone only marginally better. Could the Bengals be looking at their pick of the CBs at pick 18 this year?

[HoosierCat]

I think DB -- corner or safety -- is a very strong possibility in the first. DT is another position that is looking deep this April.

I think the Geathers signing, combined with reported attempts to seal a deal with Justin, suggests the Bengals are looking to fill in DE someplace else than the draft. (If they don't get a deal with Smith they may go after a second-tier FA DE.) And they routinely pass up DT in the first.

Right now, I'd have to say its LB vs. DB at 18. That, of course, is subject to change.

[Stripes]

I think the better CB prospects came last season... I wouldn't object to grabbing a CB on day one, but I'd prefer the Bengals pursue Asante Samuel or Nate Clements (probably dreaming).

[Whur CHad At?]

Nate Clements would be nice

[HairOnFire]

I think it's a pretty deep class at CB, DL, and S so it may come down to a matter of if any individual player stands out so much that the Bengals ignore the depth and just follow their heart. So to speak.

[Kazkal]

Nate clements would be awesome lthen we'd be paying oneal 4 million next 2 years to play knickle corner./cough homers....

I really don't see us taking a DE day 1 inless justin walks....then it would only be if a stud is on the board...otherwise I have go with CB or LB are on top of the list with S/DT right behind them.

Though I'm still up for cheerleadersi n rnd 1 and DC in rnd 2.

[schweinhart]

Well you can nix Antoine Cason. Apparently he's decided to stay at Arizona. There's still a couple of days for somebody to talk some cent$ into him. Bad news for the Bengals too if they do want CB because one that is lower just got higher if Cason was indeed deemed the caliber of prospect that he looked like.

Free agent wise I'd like them to consider Lenny Walls. He looked pretty sharp as an outside corner and would come real cheap for a corner. I just don't see the Bills or Pats letting their's walk. Maybe the Pats since they don't seem to mind letting players walk and they still win anyway.

LB wise, just don't see the kind of talent difference between #18 and the 4th round that would warrant the 1st round pick to go there. Maybe Timmons and they'll probably look cloesly at Pat Willis, Jon Beason and hopefully Earl Everett, especially if he is still there in the 2nd. But there should be a solid backer there on the 4th or even 5th. Maybe a Rory Johnson, Justin Warren, Quinton Culberson, Kelvin Smith, Devraun Thompson, Boo McClee, Prescott Burgess, Matt Muncy or even the Egyptian Magician himself.

[Kazkal]

even the Egyptian Magician himself.

I want him simply because of him being a magician

[Spor_tees]

Knowing how Marvin has worked in the past I expect the Bengals to try and work out some kind of trade in the draft to pick back up a 3rd rounder. If they can do so, I fully expect a CB to be drafted day 1. In the mock draft I did for the Bengals I had them taking Wade out of Tennessee in Round 2. This still might be possible but if they pick back up a 3rd rounder they might take him there too. I honestly see the Bengals picking up a speedy LB in round 1 that can also put his hand down on passing downs to rush the passer. Buster Davis out of Florida St. is just a missile to the ball and I think he would be an awesome fit. Then again the Bengals could go another way and draft a "Throwback" LB that would give them the grit and hardnosed play that the defense seems to be lacking. If they could get Posluszny that would be the right fit. I would be all for a Moses/Anderson/Gaines first round pick and then Posluszny in the Second Round, followed by the best available CB in the Fourth Round (or Third if the Bengals trade for one). In day two it will be the same thing Marvin always does, draft best available player on the board, even if it is a WR.

Maybe the Bengals can make an entire kickoff team of just WR's!

[Walrus]

I think DB -- corner or safety -- is a very strong possibility in the first. DT is another position that is looking deep this April.

Right now, I'd have to say its LB vs. DB at 18. That, of course, is subject to change.

I would be pretty pumped if we took one of the top safeties in the 1st rd. We (fans) have been looking for one in the draft for the past 2 years to no avail -- I remember a lot of mocks at this time last year had us taking Ko Simpson in the 1st round. And we all know how that turned out. And then in '05 we had the "Shazor Train"... Thing is, Lewis demands that his safeties be able to run like CBs, but we seem to lack an "enforcer" back there. Lewis thinks our D lacks an identity? Well, it would go a long way to have one guy back there with speed and a killer instinct. I don't think any of our DBs like to hit.

[BlainThePain]

If I had to bet on a position, it would be safety. It's been a need since Marvin has been here, we always have injury problems at safety, and their are going to be some good safeties drafted mid-first round. As strange as this sounds, I wouldn't be shocked if we took a WR in round one.

[schweinhart]

Still no word from Reggie Nelson on the safety front but he should be expected to enter early given he is really the safety of his type in this class -- one with cover corner skills out of both the slot and wide. Last year, 3 players fit that profile and they all went in the top half of the 1st round including 2 Top 10 picks.

Nelson is the most versatile of the bunch and can swing centerfield and play halves deep, which would be a big boost for the Bengals. He attacks well but he's still undersized ala Bob Sanders. I think he'll be there at 18 and would be a decent pick for the Bengals.

LaRon Landry is a great 2-deep cover safety who should be more able to interchange betwwen box and deep as needed. Normally his type wouldn't go high in the 1st but he's the cream of the crop. However, the influx of juniors at higher impact positions than safeties could sent him all the way down to 18 and he'd be a no-brainer for the Bengals IMO.

Mike Griffin just hasn;t shown he's got the quicks Mike Huff had when he took over Huff's position this year. He won't come up with the slot WR and quicker TE man cover skills needed to go as high. But he's a big time banger both over the middle and at the POA. 18 seems to high though but a good prospect to trade down some spots for and add a 3rd or 4th.

But there's a load of solid safeties in this draft and if the BPAs at more impact positions are there in the 1st and 2nd, the Bengals could easily improve the safety position in in the 4th or even 5th rounds.

[HoosierCat]

In addition to Landry and Nelson, Notre Dame safety Tom Zbikowski has also been bandied about as a possible pick. If you want someone who can hit, here's your guy -- he's also a pro boxer. Plus a good punt returner.

All that said, I think he'd be a reach at 18. He might be there when the Bengals pick in the second but right now I wouldn't bet on it. If the bengals decide to trade down from 18 to late in the 1st or early in the 2nd, tho, I could see him in stripes.

[schweinhart]

Zbik is tenuous at best in coverage. I would guess he'll stay for his senior year but if he comes out, I'd say he's a Day 2 pick.

The biggest problem with going after a safety in Round 1 is answering the question whether or not it improves the Bengals pass defense -- usually safeties aren't the primary factor in any teams success or lack of it unless the defense is largely built around them like a Bob Sanders or Troy Polamalu. For the Bengals, it boils down to corners and pass rush. The Bengals had better prioritize those positions early instead of safety if they have any expectation to improve their dismal pass defense.

[BlainThePain]

Zbik is tenuous at best in coverage. I would guess he'll stay for his senior year but if he comes out, I'd say he's a Day 2 pick.

The biggest problem with going after a safety in Round 1 is answering the question whether or not it improves the Bengals pass defense -- usually safeties aren't the primary factor in any teams success or lack of it unless the defense is largely built around them like a Bob Sanders or Troy Polamalu. For the Bengals, it boils down to corners and pass rush. The Bengals had better prioritize those positions early instead of safety if they have any expectation to improve their dismal pass defense.

I agree on the Zbik being a day 2 pick.

Something you left out about Nelson is he is a hitter. He was probably the biggest hitter on the Florida defense this year.

[HoosierCat]

Zbik is tenuous at best in coverage. I would guess he'll stay for his senior year but if he comes out, I'd say he's a Day 2 pick.

The biggest problem with going after a safety in Round 1 is answering the question whether or not it improves the Bengals pass defense -- usually safeties aren't the primary factor in any teams success or lack of it unless the defense is largely built around them like a Bob Sanders or Troy Polamalu. For the Bengals, it boils down to corners and pass rush. The Bengals had better prioritize those positions early instead of safety if they have any expectation to improve their dismal pass defense.

I agree on the Zbik being a day 2 pick.

I really doubt he falls that far. 3rd at worst. Guy has enforcer written all over him. But he may not come out, there was a report a couple days ago that he had asked permission to come back for one more year, but I haven't heard anything official yet.

[Walrus]

Zbik is tenuous at best in coverage. I would guess he'll stay for his senior year but if he comes out, I'd say he's a Day 2 pick.

The biggest problem with going after a safety in Round 1 is answering the question whether or not it improves the Bengals pass defense -- usually safeties aren't the primary factor in any teams success or lack of it unless the defense is largely built around them like a Bob Sanders or Troy Polamalu. For the Bengals, it boils down to corners and pass rush. The Bengals had better prioritize those positions early instead of safety if they have any expectation to improve their dismal pass defense.

I agree on the Zbik being a day 2 pick.

I really doubt he falls that far. 3rd at worst. Guy has enforcer written all over him. But he may not come out, there was a report a couple days ago that he had asked permission to come back for one more year, but I haven't heard anything official yet.

That's just the thing... The past couple of drafts, DBs who are big hitters but who can't cover have been 2nd day picks or UFAs.

[HoosierCat]

Tell that to Thomas Davis. And Zbikowski's a better player, IMHO.

Immaterial anyhow. Z confirmed yesterday he was going back for his senior year.

[Walrus]

Tell that to Thomas Davis. And Zbikowski's a better player, IMHO.

Immaterial anyhow. Z confirmed yesterday he was going back for his senior year.

You mean Thomas Davis, LB for the Panthers?

[HoosierCat]

Tell that to Thomas Davis. And Zbikowski's a better player, IMHO.

Immaterial anyhow. Z confirmed yesterday he was going back for his senior year.

You mean Thomas Davis, LB for the Panthers?

Yup. Played safety in college. Same knock coming out -- big hitter but couldn't cover. Which is why the Panthers initially moved him to LB. Then there were injuries and he was back a S. Then LB. Then S.

Zbikowski strikes me as a prototypical SS. And assuming he holds up in his last year at ND, wouldn't be a bad choice to succeed Dexter in '08.

[Kazkal]

I'd like to see Sabby Piscitelli in rnd 3 (if we could trade for one if not 4

[cincy9275]

i want the best defensive player available at what ever position.

[HoosierCat]

Still no word from Reggie Nelson on the safety front but he should be expected to enter early given he is really the safety of his type in this class -- one with cover corner skills out of both the slot and wide. Last year, 3 players fit that profile and they all went in the top half of the 1st round including 2 Top 10 picks.

Little blurb from gbn today...

Florida junior CB Ryan Smith has announced that he will be leaving the program and entering the 2007 NFL drfat. The 5-10, 160-pound Smith is expected to be an early second day pick at the upcoming draft. Meanwhile, there are reports that Florida junior FS Reggie Nelson, who should be one of the first defensive players off the board this spring, has made the decision to enter this year’s draft.

[Kazkal]

160? damn send that boy to mcdonalds with chad.

[schweinhart]

Brandon Siler also apparently declared, adding to what has become a decent late 1st-2nd round crop of LBs.

It's unlikely that either Caleb Miller or Landon Johnson move on, provided the Bengals tender them more than the lowest amount, but there's no long-term commitment to either yet, B-Simmons is aging fast and Pollack is probably gone. The Bengals might be comfortable enough with Ahmad Brooks, Jeanty and perhaps even AJ Nicholson but if Odell and his 5-year deal really isn't in the Bengals plans whether or not Odell craps out again or not, then MLB has to get more prioritized.

But I think there's enough LB depth in this draft without enough dominant mid-1st round LB prospects to make as big a difference. So LB in the 4th looks more appealing to me. Can you say Egyptian Magician.

Reggie Nelson on OTOH has some major appeal. I'd say he's undersized for NFL safety but certainly plays vicious and fast enough to make up for what he lacks in size. He would be the 1 safety who merges into the CB realm as potentially both a slot defender who can match up with smaller, faster slot receivers as well as a sideline CB.

How fast Nelson goes in the draft depends on how convinced teams are about what he can play. Given there doesn't seem to be a better player of his type, he should get some Top 10 consideration.