Kazkal Posted January 11, 2007 Report Share Posted January 11, 2007 Damn redskins! inless we draft jamaal then awesome redskins That is a ton of money for a situational player. He would need to bulk up to be an every down player and we all know how that turned out last time.Need to bulk up? he's 6'3 265 i'd hardly think he needs bulk up to be a starter.Aaron Schobel 6'4 262...I'm fine with him being starting DE people act like it will be his soph season all over again...even though he probbley had more DE snaps this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierCat Posted January 11, 2007 Report Share Posted January 11, 2007 Is it just me...or is this deal getting virtually no attention? Outside of local coverage (the Post, Enquirer, DDN, etc.) and the espn.com story...virtually nothing. Fox had a little 2-paragraph blurb and you have to hunt around on sportsline.com's Bengals team page to find a mention.Now, I know the playoffs are still going on and all, but I can find wire stories about this-and-that team's assistant water boy coach getting canned...but no mention of a deal giving a non-starting defensive end an average of $5.6 million/year? That was the transition tag cost -- in other words, top 10 money -- for DEs just the year before last! This is something of a bar-setting deal. I'm surprised it's going so unnoticed. Have to bet all the UFA and RFA DEs have noticed, tho... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HairOnFire Posted January 11, 2007 Report Share Posted January 11, 2007 Now, I know the playoffs are still going on and all, but I can find wire stories about this-and-that team's assistant water boy coach getting canned...but no mention of a deal giving a non-starting defensive end an average of $5.6 million/year? That was the transition tag cost -- in other words, top 10 money -- for DEs just the year before last! This is something of a bar-setting deal. I'm surprised it's going so unnoticed. Have to bet all the UFA and RFA DEs have noticed, tho... From what I can gather the Bengals gave Geathers a contract that is nearly identicle to the one the Colt's just handed out...so if it's a bar-setting deal it's just barely that. Besides, the contract makes it clear that whether Justin Smith agrees to stay or not Geathers role is going to continue growing. But if you want to talk about eye catching contracts handed out to non-starters...how about the deal Trent Cole just agreed to? He plays far fewer snaps than Geathers, right? And let's all recall the big bag of coin that one-year wonder Kyle Vanden Bosch pocketed last season. Frankly, I think we're simply seeing the results of the never ending climb in price for DE's, and the resulting willingness of the Bengals to offer a contract that seems generous now, but will likely be a considered a bargain in just a year or two. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierCat Posted January 11, 2007 Report Share Posted January 11, 2007 But if you want to talk about eye catching contracts handed out to non-starters...how about the deal Trent Cole just agreed to? He plays far fewer snaps than Geathers, right?I can't say since I wasn't following the Eagles, but if he did have fewer snaps he made a lot more of them, given that he recorded 20 more tackles. Junior only beat him in the sacks department, and then by just 2.5. And Coles' deal was a 7-year deal that averages out to $4.6 million annually, significantly below Geathers' average.But yeah, there's no doubt that even situational DEs are getting bigger bucks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShulaSteakhouse Posted January 11, 2007 Report Share Posted January 11, 2007 Since when does Justin Smith get double teamed Spain? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kazkal Posted January 11, 2007 Report Share Posted January 11, 2007 Was wondering when shula would show up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schweinhart Posted January 12, 2007 Report Share Posted January 12, 2007 As for forcing Smith to test the market, I'd say you can't force someone to do what they fully intended to do anyway. As an unrestricted free agent Smith has a bargaining chip that Geathers didn't possess, and if I'm Smith I make it clear that when all things are equal...they still aren't equal. In short, I expect Smith to move on to another team even if the best offer he receives in free agency simply matches the Bengals best offer, so lowballing Smith now is a waste of time that won't make them look good later. After all, what prevents camp Smith from releasing the details of the Bengals lowball offer....making the team look cheap again at a time when they're actually being proactive and high paying?If the Bengals have decided Jumps is their RDE of the future, then he had the better bargaining chip with him as a RFA, provided of course some other teams were willing to tread the collusion filled waters of tender sheets and up the ante anyway. Unless the new CBA changed things, at the high tender the Bengals would've walked away with a 1st and 3rd rounder for him but the fact the Bengals didn't force the RFA issue with him sounds like things aren't equal as in Justin is a goner. They could franchise Justin with much more surety knowing that no team will cough up a pair of 1st rounders if they at least wanted to keep him for another year. They could transition him if they really thought he will get offered less than what they're offering. Otherwise I hate to see them waste everyone's time, especially Justin who has done nothing but show up every game and play as relentless as he can every down, game after game. year after year.If they are offering Justin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spor_tees Posted January 12, 2007 Report Share Posted January 12, 2007 Well the Bengals could be just waiting things out to see how badly they need Justin back. I'm not sure of the dates that they have in order to tag players, but if it comes after the draft, then that gives them the chance to see if they can draft his replacement. If they get the chance to draft a DE of starter quality early in the draft then that allows them to tag Steinbech instead and allow Justin to walk. If they ave to draft a CB/S/LB instead of a DE then they may tag Justin. If you look at recent early draft picks, there have been several DE's come in and start right away for teams.Tambi Hali, Kiwanuka, and Mark Anderson are just a few I can remember off the top of my head from this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kazkal Posted January 12, 2007 Report Share Posted January 12, 2007 Mark anderson was a 3rd down pass rusher i thought? anyways FA starts in mark so have tag him before that....though he doesnt have to sign it right away Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spor_tees Posted January 12, 2007 Report Share Posted January 12, 2007 Mark anderson was a 3rd down pass rusher i thought? anyways FA starts in mark so have tag him before that....though he doesnt have to sign it right away Mark Anderson is listed on ESPN.com as:97 Mark Anderson DE 23 6-4 255 R Alabama Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spor_tees Posted January 12, 2007 Report Share Posted January 12, 2007 Actually every First Round DE taken in this years draft had significant playing time if not being the starter.1 Houston Mario Williams 13 Cleveland Kamerion Wimbley 20 Kansas City Tamba Hali22 San Francisco Manny Lawson32 New York Mathias Kiwanuka Only one DE was taken in Round Two and he played quite a bit63 Seattle Darryl TappIn the Third Round there were three DE's taken and only one of them have gotten any playing time. The Third Round is where you start seeing your first "bust" picks in the draft for DE's.71 Philadelphia Chris Gocong (He was a raw player to be developed anyway)91 Cincinnati Frostee Rucker 92 Dallas Jason Hatcher (Only guy with any playing time this season)One thing I think this shows, is that DE's tend to be able to come in and play right away much easier than some other positions like CB and LB. There is a lot less things to learn and the players are able to play on speed and strength and not as much on "instinct" and technique. This definitely makes Justin Smith a lot more expendable given the number of possible First and Second Round DEs in this up coming year's draft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schweinhart Posted January 12, 2007 Report Share Posted January 12, 2007 There is a lot less things to learn and the players are able to play on speed and strength and not as much on "instinct" and technique. This definitely makes Justin Smith a lot more expendable given the number of possible First and Second Round DEs in this up coming year's draft.Makes Justin even more expendable if it's believed that Jumpy Jr. is going to be the RDE for what he fetched. The other DE position should be even less demanding on instinct and technique because there is usually more help and trash on that side.If the Bengals go DE in the 2nd, I would suspect it would be more to replace Pollack -- a tweener who can play space in a short area at strongside LB with some quickness plus rush down at that end. DEs like Woodley and Spencer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HairOnFire Posted January 12, 2007 Report Share Posted January 12, 2007 Unless the new CBA changed things, at the high tender the Bengals would've walked away with a 1st and 3rd rounder for him [Geathers] but the fact the Bengals didn't force the RFA issue with him sounds like things aren't equal as in Justin is a goner. They could franchise Justin with much more surety knowing that no team will cough up a pair of 1st rounders if they at least wanted to keep him for another year. Your tap dancing around the point. Not only would no team surrender two 1s round picks in exchange for a franchise tagged Justin Smith...not team would have ponied up a 1st and a 3rd for Robert Geathers. So the strategy of using the highest tender possible on Geathers this season does nothing more than crush the FA interest in him this year while guaranteeing he becomes an unrestricted FA next season. And that would almost certainly result in the Bengals watching Geathers leave a year from now with no compensation whatsoever or in the unlikely event that he decided to remain a Bengal...force them to offer a much larger contract than Geathers just agreed to. You're absolutely correct that if the Bengals showed they wanted Geathers more than Justin Smith that this becomes a bargaining chip for Geathers, but it's just as true that Geathers had to weigh the odds that he'd have a poor season in 2007 or suffer a serious injury that would prevent him from cashing in to the tune of almost 14 million bucks this year. So add it all up and it becomes clear that both sides, the Bengals and Camp Geathers, had plenty of motivation to extend Geathers contract now. In fact, I wrote about this several months ago. But none of the above is true in regards to Justin Smith. He's rignored the injury risk and has resisted signing whatever contract proposal he's been given, thereby earning his unrestricted freedom. He's all but guaranteed that the worst he can do in free agency is simply match the Bengals offer, and it's very likely he can do far better. And unlike Geathers, Smith could always count on pocketing a huge payday this coming season due to the signing bonus a team will offer. Best, he finally gets the chance to control where he plays. So offering him a lowball contract is a complete waste of time that the Bengals won't bother with. Nor will they franchise tag Smith since the price of franchise tagged DE's is both staggering and guaranteed....a move that would prompt a giddy Smith sign the one-year contract before the ink was dry. Bottom Line? The Bengals have made their choice, and if they're really serious about trying to keep both Geathers and Smith they'll need to offer Smith a contract that overpays him or far more likely...accept the fact that they'll lose him in free agency and get absolutely nothing in return. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierCat Posted January 12, 2007 Report Share Posted January 12, 2007 Bottom Line? The Bengals have made their choice, and if they're really serious about trying to keep both Geathers and Smith they'll need to offer Smith a contract that overpays him or far more likely...accept the fact that they'll lose him in free agency and get absolutely nothing in return.I think he's likely gone -- but I also still think the Bengals will slap him with the transition tag. Justin has had a good, but not great, career, and he will be 28 next September, so it's not a given that he'll draw a blockbuster offer. My bet is that he'll still get offered more than the Bengals are willing to pay -- but also that the Bengals will want to keep the option of matching open. Think Takeo Spikes, The Sequel.More cynically, transitioning Justin will put something on the order of $6 million more in cap space in limbo, resurrecting a favorite Bengals excuse for not being big FA players: that they are hamstrung by all these tags and tenders. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HairOnFire Posted January 12, 2007 Report Share Posted January 12, 2007 One thing I think this shows, is that DE's tend to be able to come in and play right away much easier than some other positions like CB and LB. There is a lot less things to learn and the players are able to play on speed and strength and not as much on "instinct" and technique. This definitely makes Justin Smith a lot more expendable given the number of possible First and Second Round DEs in this up coming year's draft. A draft deep in defensive lineman makes Justin Smith expendable, but your list and any look back at past drafts make it clear that if a team desires true immediate impact from a rookie DE it needs to bite the bullet and use a very high draft pick. If that's acceptable to you then losing Smith can be easily accepted. In fact, I'm a dedicated Justin Smith pimp who could very easily wave goodbye if I were certain that the Bengals were committed to a true upgrade rather than a band-aid solution. Last, my gut tells me that re-signing Smith is a remote possibility at this point, but if it could be done the result would free up the Bengals options in the coming draft, and that seems pretty attractive knowing how many holes suddenly appeared in their roster this past season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HairOnFire Posted January 12, 2007 Report Share Posted January 12, 2007 I think he's likely gone -- but I also still think the Bengals will slap him with the transition tag. Justin has had a good, but not great, career, and he will be 28 next September, so it's not a given that he'll draw a blockbuster offer. My bet is that he'll still get offered more than the Bengals are willing to pay -- but also that the Bengals will want to keep the option of matching open. Think Takeo Spikes, The Sequel.More cynically, transitioning Justin will put something on the order of $6 million more in cap space in limbo, resurrecting a favorite Bengals excuse for not being big FA players: that they are hamstrung by all these tags and tenders. How can you look at using the transition tag on Smith cynically when it's an idea that you've repeatedly brought up and supported? As for me, I've worn myself out supporting Smith over the years but I don't know that even I could favor using a transition tag at the cost of 6 million when it's likely to buy the Bengals only one more year of play. Instead, I'd rather see that 6 million dollar cap hit be used on one true impact FA, or spread around on 2 or 3 free agents, Bengal or outsider. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierCat Posted January 12, 2007 Report Share Posted January 12, 2007 How can you look at using the transition tag on Smith cynically when it's an idea that you've repeatedly brought up and supported? As for me, I've worn myself out supporting Smith over the years but I don't know that even I could favor using a transition tag at the cost of 6 million when it's likely to buy the Bengals only one more year of play. Instead, I'd rather see that 6 million dollar cap hit be used on one true impact FA, or spread around on 2 or 3 free agents, Bengal or outsider.All I'm saying is that the Bengals may view the tag as working for them in more ways than one.As for the idea of putting the money toward a big impact FA -- for example, a certain Buffalo CB most people appear to be salivating over -- instead, I say great. Go for it. Would love to see it. Would cheer it on. But you already know exactly what percentage chance I'd assign to such an event, right? Spread it around on 2-3 other players? Well, that's probably what's going to happen, right? Koo, K2, Kelly and/or Stewart, the Dancing Bear, Watson and, or course, Miller and Landon J. are all FA's of one sort or another. So there's no shortage of places to put the money. As for outside FAs, I look for the usual second- and third-tier types. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HairOnFire Posted January 12, 2007 Report Share Posted January 12, 2007 All I'm saying is that the Bengals may view the tag as working for them in more ways than one. I just can't screw up much love for using a restrictive tag unless you really intend to match whatever offer the player is likely to get. For example, you mentioned Takeo Spikes, a player that I was loudly in favor of keeping under almost any realistic scenario. In fact, you may recall that at the time I faulted the Bengals for using the less restrictive transition tag instead of the franchise tag. Regardless, not only could I support using the transition tag so that the team retains the ability to match...I wanted to follow through and match the offer. And had they done so there would have been no need for Kevin Hardy, no Little Ray experiment, and no Odell. Switching gears and considering the example of Justin Smith and I have strong doubts that I'd be willing to match the type of offer that I fully expect him to get on the open market. And for the record I'm not really expecting Smith to get a blockbuster offer. But I do expect him to pocket as much or more than the Bengals were willing to offer during the prolonged period when they had the exclusive ability to negotiate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HairOnFire Posted January 12, 2007 Report Share Posted January 12, 2007 From the Cincy PostSmith is due to become an unrestricted free agent. Keeping Smith without placing a franchise or transition tag on him would require a larger signing bonus than the $12.5 million the Bengals gave to Geathers. Teams can name a player a franchise or transition free agent by offering him a one-year deal worth either the average of the top five salaries (franchise) or top 10 salaries (transition) at his position. The franchise tag number for a defensive end in 2006 was $8.332 million. Last year's transition tag number was $7.075 million. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierCat Posted January 12, 2007 Report Share Posted January 12, 2007 Last year's transition tag number was $7.075 million.Not impossible. Justin's contract averaged $6.5 million a year. Given the Bengals' predeliction for spreading the cap hit out evenly over the life of a contract, it's unlikely he'd be taking up much more space than "usual." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HairOnFire Posted January 12, 2007 Report Share Posted January 12, 2007 Not impossible. Justin's contract averaged $6.5 million a year. Given the Bengals' predeliction for spreading the cap hit out evenly over the life of a contract, it's unlikely he'd be taking up much more space than "usual." Lot's of things are possible, but I wouldn't be willing to pay more than 7 million bucks for a single season of work only to face the same situation the following year. And the same thing is even more true of Eric Steinbach. In my humble opinion...(ahem)...you either sign Smith or Steinbach to long term deals that slightly overpay them in the next few weeks before open free agency begins or you cut all ties and move on to the next best plan. BTW, I doubt Smith actually earned an average of 6.5 million per season....since it's unlikely he met the performance standards needed to trigger many of his incentives. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierCat Posted January 12, 2007 Report Share Posted January 12, 2007 BTW, I doubt Smith actually earned an average of 6.5 million per season....since it's unlikely he met the performance standards needed to trigger many of his incentives.Actually, there was a little blurb in the Enquirer today that suggested he did, it was the 8.5 sack season that triggered all the escalators.I'm with ya on the Steinbach or Smith front. I'd hate to see them both leave without a fight. What I really fear is that they will -- and that the Bengals will fail to pursue and/or land any top-tier talent to offset the loss. Unfortunately, history suggests that's an all-too-likely scenario. We shall see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HairOnFire Posted January 13, 2007 Report Share Posted January 13, 2007 BTW, I doubt Smith actually earned an average of 6.5 million per season....since it's unlikely he met the performance standards needed to trigger many of his incentives.Actually, there was a little blurb in the Enquirer today that suggested he did, it was the 8.5 sack season that triggered all the escalators. All of them? No matter. The blurb placed Smith's salary last season at 3.7 million....or slightly more than half of the single season expense if transition tagged. So regardless of what the final number turns out to be...when you start at over 7 million it's just too crazy to consider when you know ahead of time that doing so doesn't solve your long term needs. I know draft picks are unproven, but 1st and 2nd rounders come with long term contracts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierCat Posted January 13, 2007 Report Share Posted January 13, 2007 The blurb placed Smith's salary last season at 3.7 million....or slightly more than half of the single season expense if transition tagged.You forget the signing bonus. How you could I'm not sure, since it was of the infamous two-tiered variety and was central to his holdout, but anyhow, that adds about $1.3 million to his cap number (which was my point). $5m vs. 7m? Well, I guess we could afford another Sam Adams with that $2m...I say go ahead and transition him. It doesn't actually cost anything, preserves your right to match, and if you reach a deal with Big Name FA X, you can always pull the tag if you need the money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HairOnFire Posted January 13, 2007 Report Share Posted January 13, 2007 You forget the signing bonus. How you could I'm not sure, since it was of the infamous two-tiered variety and was central to his holdout, but anyhow, that adds about $1.3 million to his cap number (which was my point). I didn't forget the signing bonus. I deliberately ignored it since I'm less interested in the funny money average that relates to the salary cap and more interested in the very real guaranteed money that would be paid if the Bengals slapped a transition tag on Smith. I'm taking a wild guess that Geathers made something like 2 million in salary last year. Combined with the 3.7 million in salary that Justin Smith earned that's roughly 6 million dollars in salary paid the both players in 2006....absolutely none of it guaranteed. Now compare those totals with the amount of guaranteed money that would have to be needed in 2007 if Smith was transition tagged. You start with Geathers first year hit of 14 million and then add another 7 million plus for Justin's single year of play. That's more than 15 million more than you paid the same players one year prior. For me it's a deal breaker since all but 1.5 million of the 21 million dollar hit is completely guaranteed, and Smith is just as likely to leave through free agency the following season. In fact, I'll argue that it's even more likely that he moves on since offering a new contract one year later would have to address the same signing bonus demands....resulting in the Bengals giving Smith a two year total of guaranteed money that could very easily top 20 million dollars. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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