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Thurmanation

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They did draft Kieft and Guy-chick from the same school also.

It's not that you shouldn't do that, it happens once in a while, and works out here and there, but it's probably also a reflection of coaches scouting players basically full-time here...they only have time to see and talk to so many in person.

Personally I think your odds of injury or failure increase significantly in those circumstances for various reasons (law of averages).

It's something, among other things, the Bengals' need to stop doing. I thought the increase in scouts would - but it hasn't. 3 players from the same Georgia defense are Bengals.

You see how those odds turned out.

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are these just coincidences?

It's been a thing for a few years now. First one that springs to mind was Peter Warrick and Ron Dugans.

I don't see how, per Shula, it increases the risk of injury, but do agree it may have something to do with a scouting staff long found wanting.

It isn't necessarily a bad idea, tho, as long as it doesn't lead you to reach badly like they did with Dugans. You get two guys who have played together for a while already, and that ought to help them be more effective more quickly.

The other thing to consider is just that the best college players tend to be on a relatively few teams. Lots of guys from Florida and Georgia and LSU and USC and OSU are going to get drafted, while you aren't going to get to many coming out of Augustana. Of course, S.D. has produced a good player or two... :)

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To answer the burning question....no. It's not a coincidence.

Look at it this way. When you scout a prospect one of the first questions that need to be answered is if he has the athletic ability to play in the NFL. Once you've satisfied yourself that the prospect can indeed play at a higher level the next questions that neeed to be addressed concern the system or scheme those players have experience in, and probably even more important....the techniques that have been taught.

Knowing the above, it's no coincidence that Warrick and Dugans were both wideouts, Keift and Ghiacuic are both offensive lineman, and Pollack and Thurman were both viewed as linebackers. (Yeah, I know.) As such, they came to the Bengals with the same playing backgrounds and were on the same page regarding technique. Thus, Bengal coaches could be confident that position coaches could more easily begin "coaching up" their new rookies since both started from the same point. And along those same lines, even though it might be changed as soon as they get to the NFL, both rookies are familiar with the same terminology.

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They did draft Kieft and Guy-chick from the same school also.

It's not that you shouldn't do that, it happens once in a while, and works out here and there, but it's probably also a reflection of coaches scouting players basically full-time here...they only have time to see and talk to so many in person.

Personally I think your odds of injury or failure increase significantly in those circumstances for various reasons (law of averages).

It's something, among other things, the Bengals' need to stop doing. I thought the increase in scouts would - but it hasn't. 3 players from the same Georgia defense are Bengals.

You see how those odds turned out.

That was a great Georgia defense though.

I agree with what HOF is saying, but would like to add that having a freindly face at camp has to be a positive thing.

I would imagine that most of these doubles happen because the marquee player had already impressed the scout enough for him to go looking elsewhere during his visit.

I seem to remember Chad's urging is credited with the Bengals reaching for TJ in the 7th.

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My point is - you're facing tough odds as it is of people generally not working out in the draft, for whatever reason, the reason doesn't matter, it's all about odds and the law of averages.

Let's say 4 out of every 10 DIV-IA college players is going to be drafted into the NFL. (accurate #'s are irrelevant here - purely hypothetical)

Then let's say only 2 of those 4 are actually going to go on and enjoy a successful NFL career, and provide the value you wanted at his draft spot.

So what are your odds that 2 players drafted from the same class, on the same team, on the same side of the ball (Off/Def) are going to pan out in the NFL?

...much less, just by the law of averages - in my book.

If I'm drafting, I go for the highest odds of success balanced against need.

Therefore I always try to avoid drafting two guys from the same team in the same draft, let alone the same position and same side of the ball.

Of course when you look at TJ and Dugans - they were 5th-7th round picks and you can afford to take more of a chance there, as your risk isn't nearly as high as a day one pick - the day you rely on to build your team.

Just look at Keift and Eric G - as you can see Keift has ended up on IR the entire time, and even Eric G may never become a solid starter to begin with.

Look at Pollack and Thurman - it's very likely one or both will never work out here, and Pollack has barely played at all relatively speaking.

Dugans was a wasted pick IMO, and never worked out anywhere.

The Bengals' seem to be one of the only teams that routinely do this - and their track record the last 15-16 years speaks for itself. It just adds to the likelihood that more of your draft picks will not work out.

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I'm hoping they do it again this year...Jamaal Anderson and Chris Houston from Arkansas. :)

Hells ya!

Bengals almost did this year :( when mikey asked Jjoe about Ko simpson...I wonder if joe showed up after the 3rd rnd pick or if mikey was gonna wait till 4th... though we'd miss out on peko :( I'd trade rucker for ko though :P

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