Playoff Possiblities and Scenarios

[JaxonFord87]

We have a couple chances...we have the chance to earn the final wildcard spot, and dare i say it, if baltimore goes on some bizarre losing streak, we could end up leading the division.

[derekshank]

We are definietly in the mix. I have a lot more hope right now than I did even last week.

As Hoosier noted, it currently stands:

Kansas City 7-4 (3-1 in AFC West)

Denver 7-4 (3-2 in AFC West)

Cincinnati 6-5 (.571 in AFC)

New York Jets 6-5 (.555 in AFC)

Jacksonville 6-5 (.429 in AFC)

I get the feeling that Jacksonville is already out of it. They have to play Indy, NE, and @KC, and are currently in last place in all the tie-breakers. I think they'll be lucky to finish 9-7.

We're only 1 game out. We currently have the tie-breaker over NYJ (I think that will continue as the Jets still have divisional games against Buffalo and Miami... both of whom are playing decent right now). We have a tie-breaker against KC because we beat them head-to-head, and we also control our own destiny against Denver, because we play them head-to-head in a few weeks.

There are more likely scenarios for us to make the playoffs right now than for us to miss them. Denver and KC both play pretty brutal schedules from here on. We merely need to finish with the same record as KC... and if we beat Denver it will be the same with them.

What it really comes down to is Thursday. If we beat Baltimore, it goes a long way in securing a playoff spot for ourselves. If we beat Baltimore, we should be good enough to beat the Broncos. That would all but secure a respectable 10-6 with most of the important tie-breakers.

We're seem to be playing good football at the right time in the season. If that continues, we'll make a playoff run. However, if we manage to lose to Baltimore... it's back to discussing the '07 draft. Thursday is huge.

[Kazkal]

If we win out and ravens lose 3 out of the next 5 2 being AFC who is the division winner

[combatbengal]

We've only lost one div game and that was to the Ravens. If we beat them Thursday, we have a good chance at winning the div again!

[agreen_112]

We've only lost one div game and that was to the Ravens. If we beat them Thursday, we have a good chance at winning the div again!

It's not IF it's WHEN we beat them! No way in hell do we lose to the Ravens. We should've beat them the first time around. We're a better team then the Ravens!

[rwalling]

Must have the ravens game.

Once we have that, we must have the Jack@sses, I mean Broncos.

[jjakq27]

From the Enquirer:

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/art.../611270322/1066

Key games next week:

NY Jets (6-5) at Green Bay (4-6)

Kansas City (7-4) at Cleveland (3-8)

Jacksonville (6-5) at Miami (5-6)

Seattle (6-4) at Denver (7-4)

If we win out and ravens lose 3 out of the next 5 2 being AFC who is the division winner

1st tiebreaker is head-to-head and that would be a draw at 1-1.

2nd tiebreaker is divisional record. Right now we are 3-1 and the Ravens are 3-0. If we win out we would be 5-1 and the Ravens would have to lose to us and lose to either Cleveland (12/17) or Pittsburgh (12/24) and they would be 4-2, giving us the division title if we end up tied at 11-5.

If we end up with the same divisional record, I think conference record is the tie breaker. We are 4-3 and the Ravens are 6-1 at this point. If we win out we would be 9-3. All five of the Ravens games are AFC games also, so we need them to lose three to be 8-4.

Here is the official link on NFL.com

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakers

[NYBengalfan]

We've only lost one div game and that was to the Ravens. If we beat them Thursday, we have a good chance at winning the div again!

It's not IF it's WHEN we beat them! No way in hell do we lose to the Ravens. We should've beat them the first time around. We're a better team then the Ravens!

Exactly... Those early turnovers were a fluke!!! We won't fumble the Kickoff, that was the only offensive TD they scored was off the Turnover. And Palmer is not that far off as he was on the INT next drive.

We'll win this one, the Defense is getting turnovers and playing better against the run. if the D could play half as good as it did yesterday we'll win by 2 Touchdowns.

[TJJackson]

Indy may well be resting starters by the time we play them. no worries there.

[derekshank]

Indy may well be resting starters by the time we play them. no worries there.

I doubt it. Indy is only one game ahead of Baltimore and San Diego in the home-field department. I'm guessing that the Colts really want that home-field again... and with the way it went last season, I doubt they'll rest players this early in the season (It's a week 15 game, so that would mean planning to rest players for 3 weeks before the playoffs). The only way they won't be concerned about winning the game is if we beat Baltimore, and SD falters giving them room to breath. Otherwise... they'll want the win.

We might want it more, since we're likely to still be playing for our playoff lives... but it seems doubtful to me that they'll be resting players a full 4 weeks before their first playoff game. We'll have to bring our A-Game to beat them.

[DC_Bengals_Fan]

The games that matter!

Here's an analysis of the remaining NFL season. Do we get in? For the following, I'm assuming 10-6 gets in regardless, and the Bengals would win any tiebreaker against the next-out team for the WC. So that's good! However, the the Bengals have a tough road ahead for that to happen. 9-7 is a more likely record, which needs help to get in the playoffs. That said, two events this past week increased the Bengals' chances of making the playoffs probably by a factor of 5, even at 9-7:

*DEN starts a rookie QB

*JAX lose to BUF

Prior to that, DEN was practically assured of playoffs, and the JAX/KC game at the end of the season was almost guaranteed to make one team or the other 10-6. Now, there's a very good chance that we win a tiebreaker over JAX even if they win the KC game.

Here are the non-Bengals games that matter most, concerning JETS, JAX, KC, and DEN.

DEN vs. SD (13)

KC vs. BAL (13)

JETS vs. BUF (13)

KC vs. SD (14)

KC vs. JAX (16)

JETS vs. MIA (16)

Below is a team-by-team analysis of the chances. Note that the tiebreaker order for WC for two teams is conference record, common games, and strength of victory. It's a bit different for three teams, but most likely the extra things you look at for three teams won't apply, or will favor the Bengals (like a 2-team sweep over DEN and KC, if it comes down to it).

To summarize, JAX is nearly dead no matter what, KC's chances will come down to the JAX game, DEN is still probably in but not guaranteed, and we need the JETS to lose 2 games out of 5 to bad teams.

**********************

Jax, 6-5 (3-4 conf): remaining games against MIA, IND, TEN, NE, KC. Expect losses to NE and IND, winds over TEN and possibly MIA going into KC game. Realistically, 8-7 (5-6) going into KC game. They're probably done, and if so, them beating KC probably helps us.

Key games: KC (we want them to win!)

Jets, 6-5 (5-4 conf): GB, BUF, MIN, MIA, OAK. Cupcake schedule all year. Realistically, they should finish at least 3-2 against that crap, making them 9-7 or 10-6. Luckily, their conference record is mediocre, so if they lose two games they'll have probably no better than a 7-5 conference record, unless they beat BUF, MIA, and OAK while losing to GB and MIN. As all the Bengals' remaining games are conference, if they get to 9-7, they will have a 7-5 conference record. The Bengals can do *no worse* than tie the head to head matchups, as the Jets are 1-1 against NE, lost to IND, and lost to CLE (HAHA!). And, if they do tie the head-to-head, then that means the Jets beat OAK which makes it practically impossible for them to match the Bengals' strength of victory. Realistically, if they tie the head-to-head it means the Bengals also lost to Oakland and aren't in the playoff hunt anyway. As a result, we only need them to lose two games, at least one against the AFC, but they are bad games.

Key games: BUF, MIA

KC, 7-4 (3-4 conf): CLE, BAL, SD, OAK, JAX. All AFC the rest of the way. Thankfully we have a head-to-head on them and their conference record sucks, and our schedule is harder. As such, any situation in which we tie them on record, we win the tie. We probably need them to lose 3 games to pass them, but they have three losable games in BAL, SD, and JAX. More than likely, the final game against JAX will determine whether they're 10-6 or 9-7.

Key games: BAL, SD, JAX.

DEN, 7-4 (7-3 conf): SEA, SD, ARI, CIN, SF. High conference record means they're probably in, but then again they're starting Cutler now, so 2-3 isn't out of the question. If they finish 9-7, we need them to lose to CIN, SD, and pick a putrid NFC team. In one they'll be dogs, and in one we control our destiny. Denver has the inside edge into the playoffs, but the inexplicable timing of starting a rookie can't hurt us.

Key games: SD, CIN

CIN, 6-5 (4-3 conf): BAL, OAK, IND, DEN, PIT. All AFC left, so getting to 9-7 means 7-5 in the conference. Beating bad PIT and OAK teams is essential. At that point, we can go 1-2 against DEN, IND, and BAL and get to 9-7, which probably eliminates JAX. At that point, we need a stumble from 2 out of KC, DEN, and JETS.

Key games: ALL!

[Tasher]

Nice analysis.

Cincy Key: Keep Winning!

[jjakq27]

Week 13 Playoff scenarios from NFL.com

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/9817776

We are now ranked 7th in the conference too.

http://www.nfl.com/standings/conference

[bengalsfansince68]

You know what I see?

If we beat Oakland next week (and we will) and KC beats the ratbirds at Arrowhead (a distinct possibility), we will be one game off the division lead with three to play. If we win out (we have to) we will hold tiebreakers on the ratbirds, Chiefs and Broncos.

Seems to me that we are not in such a dire situation as many have portrayed us to be in.

[Kazkal]

We beat colts and ratbirds lose 2 I very well could see us taking the division....

I very well could see KC and Bills beating the ravens with browns or steelers having spoiler chances.

[BengalPimp]

I have defended, and argued with others that we would still make the playoffs. I have said the Offense would get back on track, it has. I have Defended the Defense, they have improved. I honestly couldnt understand how anybody a few weeks ago could write-off a team(regardless of record) with this much talent and still a half season to play. WHO DEY . That said, our best shot at the playoffs has and will be the wild card, and for that reason, I hope the Ratbirds beat the Chiefs, that helps us much more with only 4 games left to play.

[DC_Bengals_Fan]

You know what I see?

If we beat Oakland next week (and we will) and KC beats the ratbirds at Arrowhead (a distinct possibility), we will be one game off the division lead with three to play. If we win out (we have to) we will hold tiebreakers on the ratbirds, Chiefs and Broncos.

Seems to me that we are not in such a dire situation as many have portrayed us to be in.

Actually, 1st tiebreaker for WC is conf record, and we probably don't take Denver there if we finish 9-7, although if Cutler really sucks it's possible.

I was certainly one who portrayed the dire situation. To get out of it - and we're still not in a playoff spot - we had to beat 7-4, 9-2, and the Browns. I'm glad we did, but being 4-5 with their schedule meant they needed a great run just to get in contention.

Oh, and I'll be pulling for the Ratbirds in KC, that's our best chance of getting into the playoffs.

[skyline]

You know what I see?

If we beat Oakland next week (and we will) and KC beats the ratbirds at Arrowhead (a distinct possibility), we will be one game off the division lead with three to play. If we win out (we have to) we will hold tiebreakers on the ratbirds, Chiefs and Broncos.

Seems to me that we are not in such a dire situation as many have portrayed us to be in.

Oh, and I'll be pulling for the Ratbirds in KC, that's our best chance of getting into the playoffs.

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. The division title would be great and all, but I'll be perfectly content with grabbing a wildcard spot and knocing the Ravens off in round 1 ala the Steelers last season.

[DC_Bengals_Fan]

You know what I see?

If we beat Oakland next week (and we will) and KC beats the ratbirds at Arrowhead (a distinct possibility), we will be one game off the division lead with three to play. If we win out (we have to) we will hold tiebreakers on the ratbirds, Chiefs and Broncos.

Seems to me that we are not in such a dire situation as many have portrayed us to be in.

Oh, and I'll be pulling for the Ratbirds in KC, that's our best chance of getting into the playoffs.

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. The division title would be great and all, but I'll be perfectly content with grabbing a wildcard spot and knocing the Ravens off in round 1 ala the Steelers last season.

I think NE is a bit more likely, they seem to be in position for the #3 spot (their remaining schedule is putrid). I wouldn't mind that rematch if our run D has found itself.

[jjakq27]

The best chance for us to beat the Ravens for the division, is that they need to lose at least two more games with one of them being a loss to either Pittsburgh or Cleveland. We need to win out which includes the game against Pittsburgh on New Year's Eve.

We would be tied at 11-5 but would win the division based on a better divisional record (5-1) for us while Baltimore would be (4-2). It is basically the same scenario as last year when we won the division title over the Steelers.

If we can't winout, then we need the Ravens to lose 3 of 4 and I don't know if that is realistic.

[derekshank]

I really don't see us beating out Baltimore for the division. The hole we dug ourselves is too big. Now it's too little, too late. We need to focus on the Wild Card.

However... I think we gave the rest of the league a pretty good gameplan for beating the Ravens. You take advantage of how aggressive their defense is... and our defense certainly showed some of the weaknesses of their offense.

I actually expect KC to beat them next week now @ Arrowhead (which is a shame... because that will hurt our Wild Card chances), but I don't see Baltimore losing to Pittsburgh, Cleveland or Buffalo (I also don't see us winning out. I think we'll lose to Indy, finishing 10-6).

[Grizz08]

So we all pretty much are rooting for the browns (sadly) to beat KC this weekend but next weekend Baltimore goes to Arrowhead for what looks to be an exciting game against the Chiefs. But with Baltimore looking like they could slide... who do you guys think we should go for more??? AFC NORTH Champs? Or AFC Wild Card spot?

[skyline]

I'm rooting for Baltimore in that game, all the way.

[duus]

I'm rooting for Baltimore in that game, all the way.

Yeah, got to go with the more likely scenario, and this that we grab the wildcard from the Chiefs. I suppose you cannot be 100% disappointed either way, but I'd rather we get the Chiefs loss.

[sexywendy]

Balty matches up well with KC. KC is conservative and has a bad OLINE. Hell if Den or KC lose this week we would be ties for the last WC with 4 games remaining. If you think are best shot is catching Balty your an idiot. It could happen but our best hope is a WC and remember were better on the road than at home!!!!