Anthony Montgomery

[WretchedOne]

http://nfldraftalmanac.com/index.php?c=2&a=634

Peter Shumate takes a look at a more unheralded defensive tackle who deserves some respect.

Ever since watching Montgomery plague the Alabama offensive line in last year's Music City Bowl, the Minnesota defensive tackle has piqued my interest. Yet, despite playing well this season as he did in last year's final hurrah, Montgomery was ignored by the Senior Bowl, the Combine, internet draftniks, Scouts Inc, and Mel Kiper Jr. It was as though he did not exist. Frustrated and convinced of his ability, I engaged in an extensive tape review of what Minnesota tape I possessed.

Originally, it was my intention to provide statistical comparisons between Montgomery and the more highly regarded defensive tackles of the draft class, including Haloti Ngata, Rodrique Wright, Gabe Watson, John McCargo, Brodrick Bunkley, Claude Wroten and Orien Harris. However, due to a lack of tape, Ngata and Wroten were cut from the list. Harris and McCargo did not make the final cut either, as I decided they would be superfluous additions. That left two tackles widely considered as premier run defenders in Watson and Wright, as well as Florida State's Bunkley, who is in contention with Ngata to be the first defensive tackle off the board. Yet again though, an uneven tape count prevented me from doing a complete workup of each player's season, and almost disrupted the entire project. I decided to narrow it down to three games in the case of Bunkley, Watson and Montgomery. Wright was nearly axed from the list as well, but since he played Ohio State, it was important to keep him involved for a game-to-game comparison with Montgomery.

The next step was to determine what it is I wanted to measure. In the broad sense, I was looking for statistical evidence to indicate good or bad play. Specifically, I decided to evaluate each defender as a run defender at the point of attack and as a pass rusher. I also tracked other standard statistics, such as tackles, pass deflections, forced fumbles, et cetera to capture a more complete picture of each defenders' effect on a game. These are the metrics and statistics that I tracked during each game:

SOLO TACKLES: Self explanatory. I do not count sacks or tackles for loss as a solo tackle.

ASSISTS: Any tackle in which the defender made the second hit to help bring down the ball carrier who was clearly not going to be brought down immediately by the initial tackler.

TACKLES FOR LOSS: Any tackle made by the defender that resulted in the ball carrier losing yardage.

RUNS DISRUPTED: A penetration made by the defender that forced the ball carrier to change directions and the course of the run. These plays often end up as a positive result for the offense, but they are still good plays by the defender in which his teammates usually do not follow up on.

QB PRESSURES: An individual pass rushing effort by a defender that forces the quarterback to hurry his throw or scramble to avoid the rush. Obviously not as devastating as a sack in terms of yardage, however pressures are a more consistent and accurate measurement of a successful pass rush than a sack, as a sack is often just one big play in which several elements combined to make the play.

QB Sacks: An individual pass rushing effort by a defender that results in the quarterback being hit for lost yardage. There are multiple types of sacks, such as scheme, individual effort or coverage, but I chose not to differentiate when putting together this specific project.

SACKS CREATED: A QB Pressure that results in another defender picking up the sack due to the initial defender's pass rushing effort.

BAD PASS FORCED: A QB Pressure that hurries the quarterback into making an inaccurate throw, often for an incompletion.

BAD DECISION FORCED: A QB Pressure that hurries the quarterback into making a poor decision, such as throwing into double coverage or tossing it up for grabs, or throwing it directly to an unseen linebacker.

THROWAWAY FORCED: A QB Pressure that forces the quarterback into throwing the ball out of bounds for a loss of down, but without negative or positive change in yardage.

FUMBLES FORCED/FUMBLES RECOVERED: Self explanatory.

PASS DEFELCTIONS: Self explanatory.

MISSED TACKLES: Any whiff or broken tackle made by the defender when there was an opportunity to make a play.

POA/ttl yds/ypc: The number of times a defender was at the point of attack on a running play, the total yardage gained against that defender, and the average yards per carry.

I broke down three games each for Bunkley, Watson, and Montgomery, and only two for Wright. The results are somewhat surprising.

Against Miami(FL), Florida, and Penn State, Brodrick Bunkley amassed 5 solo tackles, 5 assists, 4 tackles for loss, 9 disrupted runs, 5 QB pressures, 2 QB sacks, 1 bad pass forced, 1 throwaway forced, and 2 missed tackles. Bunkley was the point of attack 10 times, allowed 4 yards and an average of 0.4 yards per carry.

Against Notre Dame, Iowa and Ohio State, Gabe Watson notched 4 solo tackles, 1 tackle for loss, 1 disrupted run, 1 QB pressure, 1 forced and recovered fumble, and 1 missed tackle. Watson was run at 10 times for a total of 44 yards, surrendering an average of 4.4 yards per carry.

Against Ohio State and Southern California, Rodrique Wright garnered 1 solo tackle, 3 assists, 2 tackles for loss, and 1 pass deflection. On 3 runs at the point of attack, offenses gained 16 yards, or 5.3 yards per carry.

Against Wisconsin, Iowa, and Ohio State, Anthony Montgomery compiled 3 solo tackles, 4 assists, 2 tackles for loss, 2 disrupted runs, 10 QB pressures, 1 QB sack, 1 forced bad pass, 1 forced bad decision, 1 pass deflection and 1 fumble recovery. Montgomery faced offenses at the point of attack 9 times, allowing 14 yards and giving up 1.5 yards per carry.

Judging from these statistics, Montgomery clearly performed better than Wright and Watson, and a notch below the dominant Bunkley, who was disruptive force, consistently blowing up plays in the backfield when offenses challenged him. He was also seeing more double teams than perhaps any other tackle in the draft. However, these three game totals could be construed as deceptive. Wright clearly played the toughest competition, and without a third game, his numbers are somewhat skewed. The Southern California numbers are somewhat superfluous, but the Ohio State game has a lot of importance. By comparing Montgomery, Watson and Wright against Ohio State's strong interior line being led by standout center Nick Mangold, we get as close to a fair playing ground as possible in examining each performance.

In the second game of the season, Wright faced off against the Buckeyes in a prime time, national television event in which the Longhorns prevailed in a hotly contested match. The Buckeyes avoided Wright for most of the game, only running at him once for a 4 yard gain. However, Wright did little else of consequence, recording only 1 solo tackle, 2 disrupted runs (one of which he came unblocked due to a missed assignment), 1 QB pressure (again, left unblocked), and 1 athletic looking pass deflection on a short zone drop. The Buckeyes really did not pay much attention to Wright, and he was shoved around quite a bit by Mangold and guard Rob Sims on various encounters that were too boring to justify discussing. Wright's performance against the Buckeyes could be best described in one word: ineffective.

Largely lazy and disinterested in his other games, Gabe Watson turned on his motor when facing off against Ohio State in the annual rivalry game. His statistical total is not overly impressive at first glance, as he only put up 1 tackle for a loss, 1 QB pressure, and 1 forced/recovered fumble. He found himself at the point of attack 3 times, allowing a total of 13 yards for a 4.3 yard average. However, upon a closer look, the Buckeyes gave Watson a lot of attention, regularly double teaming him and targeting other victims in the running game. There were several plays in which Watson clearly got the better of his blockers, but the ball carrier was not close enough for Watson to do anything about it. It is also important to note that each play he notched was a big one, including a momentum changing fumble. At the point of attack, a cursory look indicates that Watson was not overly effective. This is not exactly the case, as one 15 yard run wiped out two solid efforts previously, including his -4 yard tackle at the point, and a measly 2 yard gain by the Buckeyes. Watson was also called offside, and was clearly held on one pass rush, preventing him from garnering another QB pressure, yet there was no call.

So how did Montgomery perform against the same Buckeyes that Wright struggled with and Watson performed admirably against?

Montgomery totaled 2 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 tackle for loss, 3 QB pressures, and 1 QB sack, with another sack opportunity deprived due to an offensive holding penalty by OG Rob Sims. At the point of attack, Montgomery allowed 4 yards on two runs for a paltry 2.0 average. Like Watson, Montgomery was the target of Ohio State's attention, frequently seeing double teams. When he saw single blocking, he dominated. Senior Nick Mangold, likely to be the first center off the board on April 29th, had several quality efforts against Montgomery, but rarely did he sustain quality movement against the big Golden Gopher. As a whole, Montgomery was more active in pursuit and making plays across the field than both Watson and Wright.

Against Iowa, it was more of the same.

Watson looked sluggish against the Hawkeyes, and his numbers reflect that: 2 solo tackles and 1 disrupted run. Iowa attacked Watson directly twice in the running game, and gained 10 yards on those plays. As a pass rusher, Watson was completely ineffective, and did not merit extra attention most of the time. Montgomery however, turned in a fine performance despite the thrashing Minnesota received. Like in the Ohio State game, Montgomery was largely avoided. Although Albert Young and the rest of the Hawkeyes ran all over the Golden Gopher defense, it was largely exposing the Minnesota linebackers on cutback/slant runs. When Iowa did challenge Montgomery, they had little success, amassing only 5 yards on 3 carries, including a stuffed fourth and short. In addition, Montgomery notched 1 tackle for a loss, and 3 QB pressures.

So why are Gabe Watson and Rodrique Wright likely to be first day selections when Anthony Montgomery is almost universally regarded as unworthy of being drafted?

There are accusations that Montgomery is lazy and does not give consistent effort, yet there is little evidence to support these claims. Like most defensive tackles, Montgomery does take plays off, but not nearly as many as Watson or Wright, who sometimes took entire games off. Montgomery also played an outrageous number of snaps, only receiving relief for one series per game. It is not surprising that he did not give full effort on every play. If he did so, he would have been useless in the fourth quarter. Also, unlike Watson and other defensive tackles, Montgomery is not burdened with unnecessary weight. Despite being 6'5" and a shade over 300 pounds, Montgomery does not carry much extra baggage around the waist.

It is possible that Montgomery is generally thought of as a poor player, as he was a part of a rather ineffective defensive unit. However, this is clearly not the case, having been established earlier that Montgomery is, in fact, a competent player of equal or better ability than Rodrique Wright and Gabe Watson. It is not like he is thought of as a bad athlete, either. Some teams are reportedly looking at him as an offensive tackle, and no scout would move an unathletic defensive tackle to the offensive side of the ball. It could be that Montgomery's unpolished technique is scaring off scouts, and even though he could use further development, his technique has not prevented him from being a force on the gridiron.

The problem is not Montgomery; he is merely a victim of circumstance.

The problem lies with college football media and the scouting process.

Although the "skill" players receive more of the attention for their dazzling runs and astounding receptions, the most important competitors on the field are those battling in the trenches. It is no coincidence that elite offensive and defensive lines anchored this season's Super Bowl contenders. It is no coincidence that elite offensive lines anchored this year's National Championship contenders. However, the football media typically glances over these grunts without more than a cursory look. There is no established statistical system to measure the performance of an offensive lineman, and most members of the football media lack the time and the knowledge to properly analyze the men who make things go. As for defensive linemen, they are judged by limited statistics such as sacks, tackles and tackles for a loss, which do not accurately depict the individual efforts of big defenders. The football media, constantly on a deadline to publish a column or desperate to consume airtime, simply lack the analytical means and ability, instead relying on second hand knowledge. The chances of an outstanding linemen receiving positive press are incredibly slim. There are too many stories about stunning runners, heroic quarterbacks, and acrobatic wide outs needing to be written than to focus on the "boring" play of linemen, who crash into each other like barbarians and animals? or so the logic goes. Surrounded by mostly poor defensive players, and playing for a coaching staff lacking the ability to properly develop defensive talent, players like Anthony Montgomery go unheralded by a football media unable to properly cover the sport.

Scouting is a process that is flawed in similar ways. Although performance is the ultimate monkey in the NFL, personnel departments rarely seem to approach the Draft the same way. Clearly, Division 1A ball is the highest non-NFL level of football. Logic would suggest that the top players at this level would project to succeed at the next level as well. Most NFL teams track player performance using various different metrics and statistics, yet scouts do not adopt similar methods when breaking down potential prospects. Without the kind of clarity that such metrics would provide, scouts are forced to judge prospects' performance solely with their eyes. Judging from the number of obvious misses throughout the Draft's history, this is clearly a flawed inefficient process. A scout's understanding of actual on the field performance can be obfuscated by technical proficiency and athletic ability. These latter qualities, though impressive and important, are often identified as only benchmarks for performance. This is simply not true. No matter how quick and athletic an offensive tackle make look gliding into his stance, he clearly has failed his assignment if he cannot block the defender coming off the edge. These things quite often do not register with scouts. In order to seize the analytical clarity lacking in abundance, better measurements of performance must be created. As Bill James would say, better questions must be asked.

The truth is that only a system that measures statistical performance, technical proficiency and athletic ability equally can accurately represent a prospect's value. Until statistical analysis is fully integrated by player personnel analysts, the NFL Draft will remain a turbulent guessing game, a flawed and incomplete process running in circles, sabotaging itself.

Seriously, this guy is a late-1st round caliber player....

I've been a huge fan of him since I saw him against OSU last year....

Simply amazing....

[Kazkal]

mybe hes on marvins radar

[ArmyBengal]

This guy has been discussed earlier if I remember correctly and I agree that he would have to be considered in the later rounds...

WHODEY !!!

[Stripes]

Nice write-up WO. I don't think Montgomery is going to go undrafted... I usually have seen him somewhere in the mix in DT discussions. I'd say he would warrant a solid 5th rounder, maybe 4th... He might end up being a better player than those spots would indicate, but there is the flaw in the NFL Draft... We still can't reach for him early obviously. I'd be a fan of another DT that seems to be catching the eyes of scouts and Kiper disciples... Montavious Stanley.

[derekshank]

I'd be happy taking a guy like this. Very little risk, potentially high reward. The thing most people don't understand is that almost every D-lineman in college takes plays off. The games are too long for the big guys in the middle.

There are very few players who don't take plays off... guys like Dwight Freeney, and Tamba Hali. (DE's not even DT's) The whole "He takes plays off" is not a good argument. The argument would be that he lackes intensity, doesn't have fire, or is lazy. That is an attitude, and will follow him to the NFL. I don't know anything about Montgomery... but these are reasons I want to stay away from Watson and Wright.

My favorite DT has always been, and remains as Jesse Maholena. He is the definition of an over-acheiver, was double-teamed all year long, and still found ways to get in the backfield regularly. I like big effort guys who perform better than expected.

However, if we landed Montgomery, I'd be pretty pleased as well, because by the sounds of it, we won't have to use a 1st day pick.

[Kazkal]

Dwight Freeney takes plays off just not by choice

[WretchedOne]

Expect one or more of these DTs to be selected by the Bengals.

1. Jesse M. (wasn't very high on him until a few weeks ago when I read an actual "good" profile of Jesse)

2. Montavious Stanley (I pimped this guy pretty hard a month or so ago, his wonderlic score scares me, thats about it)

3. Anthony Montgomery (same player as Askew but 300x's better, Marvin knew about him, I think Marvin knows about Anthony)

4. Tommy Jackson (late round guy who's a fireplug run-stuffer. I think Marvin really likes Tommy)

5. Domata Peko (wouldn't be surprised to see Marv take Askew's replacement at MSU. Peko is the "anti-askew")

[Kazkal]

Expect one or more of these DTs to be selected by the Bengals.

1. Jesse M. (wasn't very high on him until a few weeks ago when I read an actual "good" profile of Jesse)

2. Montavious Stanley (I pimped this guy pretty hard a month or so ago, his wonderlic score scares me, thats about it)

3. Anthony Montgomery (same player as Askew but 300x's better, Marvin knew about him, I think Marvin knows about Anthony)

4. Tommy Jackson (late round guy who's a fireplug run-stuffer. I think Marvin really likes Tommy)

5. Domata Peko (wouldn't be surprised to see Marv take Askew's replacement at MSU. Peko is the "anti-askew")

6.) Dusty Dvoracek

[ArmyBengal]

I still don't understand the pimping of:

"Hi, I'm Dusty and I'm an alcoholic" Dvoracek...

I know the guy has all kinds of potential, but he seems like to big of a risk to me. DT should be an interesting position in the draft to see what direction they go in. Going back to an article on Bengals.com, Marvin stated DT would be addressed on day two, so we'll see...

WHODEY !!!

[WretchedOne]

I would take Dusty, not my top choice, but I could definately live with him.

I've read a lot into his whole situation and given him a pass.

He really is a VERY intelligent person who made a big mistake and liked to drink a little to much. Dusty is not a good drinker obviously, keep him away from Justin Smith.

From what I've read, the guy learned a hard lesson from all this and even his coaches say that the "drunk" Dusty is nowhere near the "real" Dusty.

He would definately be worth the risk he fell....we'd get ripped for ignoring character again, but it's one risk that I think is actually decently safe.

I could consider him if he was there in 4th-5th range, he would definately be a great vaule on Day 2.

[Whur CHad At?]

Montgomery is alright, he would be a decent late 7th round choice or a solid College FA pick up.

[Wraith]

Steve Fifita, yeah he's short but so is Mike Patterson, all the guy ever does is make plays, anybody catch the Fiesta Bowl last year? Fifita was all over the field making plays. I have been high on him for two years.

[Kazkal]

I still don't understand the pimping of:

"Hi, I'm Dusty and I'm an alcoholic" Dvoracek...

I know the guy has all kinds of potential, but he seems like to big of a risk to me. DT should be an interesting position in the draft to see what direction they go in. Going back to an article on Bengals.com, Marvin stated DT would be addressed on day two, so we'll see...

WHODEY !!!

Because hes a perfect match for justin

He really is a VERY intelligent person who made a big mistake and liked to drink a little to much. Dusty is not a good drinker obviously, keep him away from Justin Smith.

Awww yer no fun,in all seriousness though kid cleaned up there was a reason he was back on team in 2005

[ArmyBengal]

Because hes a perfect match for justin

WHODEY !!!

[BengalChamps]

Wow, what a write up. You sold me on Montgomery. I'll be looking to see where he lands. Hope he's a Bengal!

[BlainThePain]

I still don't understand the pimping of:

"Hi, I'm Dusty and I'm an alcoholic" Dvoracek...

I know the guy has all kinds of potential, but he seems like to big of a risk to me. DT should be an interesting position in the draft to see what direction they go in. Going back to an article on Bengals.com, Marvin stated DT would be addressed on day two, so we'll see...

WHODEY !!!

I like him as a prospect. To me, he looks meaner than hell, and I think we need someone in the middle like that against the Steelers. Somebody that fights hard and is looking to punish people.

[ArmyBengal]

I'm sure if the guy has TRULY cleaned himself up and the Bengals are comfortable with him, he will get looked at HARD because the guy is a "mean" type of player. I'm just not so sure we will go in this direction when it comes to our defense who doesn't need to have someone with mad issues...

WHODEY !!!

[Tasher]

Mark the words here (again!)

UN-drafted free agent!

This guy is rated as lazy, out-of-shape and overweight (read FAT, ah-la NOT Bunkley-chisled)!