Rising...falling...soaring...slipping....climbing...sliding

[HairOnFire]

Rob Rang

Senior Analyst

NFLDraftScout.com

March 27, 2006 – Perhaps the strangest aspect of the NFL Draft is the annual rise and fall of prospects during the months of February, March, and April. Teams tend to focus on the interviews and workouts being forged during these months, often losing sight of the actual football being played in the fall and winter. While the NFL likes to make light of the idea that players do rise and fall dramatically during this time, the simple truth is that fluctuation does occur. And with the draft less than a month away, we give you the latest risers and fallers.

Rising

Jason Allen, FS, Tennessee: After blistering the Combine track with a 4.32 40, Allen has re-assured scouts that his hip dislocation is a thing of the past. The injury, characterized by some early on as potentially career-threatening has apparently healed and now the former Vol is beginning to receive similar grades as he did previous to the injury. Assuming he doesn’t have some flair-up with the hip between now and the draft, expect to hear Allen’s name called in the middle portion of the first round.

Winston Justice, OT, USC: Justice answered all questions about his off-field behavior at the Combine and has been impressive in workouts. The former Trojan has emerged as the second best offensive line prospect of this draft and could crack the top ten due to his rare athleticism and size.

Vince Young, QB, Texas: Forget what you heard about the mediocrity of Young’s pro day workout. Young’s size and athleticism were expected, but he also showed a stronger, more accurate arm than scouts anticipated and could have leapt Jay Cutler as the second quarterback drafted in 2006.

Antonio Cromartie, CB, Florida State: Cromartie’s decision to leave school early despite missing the season with a torn ACL still bothers teams a bit, but there is no denying the former Seminole’s upside. At 6-2, 208 pounds Cromartie has the size every team is looking for and he showed off his rare athleticism at his March 16th Pro Day, posting a 4.38 40 and a 42” vertical jump.

John McCargo, DT, NC State: With Mario Williams and Manny Lawson operating on the outside, it is easy to see why McCargo could be overshadowed at NC State. Add to this the junior defensive tackle only played seven games this season due to a broken foot and scouts are just now catching up to McCargo’s game. In a draft where most of the top defensive tackles are run stuffers, McCargo’s upfield burst is certain to attract teams looking for a single gap penetrator.

Leonard Pope, TE, Georgia: Pope is precisely the type of prospect whose stock rises as the draft approaches. Blessed with an unbelievable combination of height (6-8), speed (4.62), and leaping ability (37.5” vertical), the former Georgia tight could be a virtually un-coverable force in the middle of the field.

Jon Alston, OLB/S, Stanford: A former strong-side linebacker for the Cardinal, teams are moving Alston up the board due to his spectacular Combine performance that have many clubs considering him as a safety. Teams recognized his playing speed and instincts for the position while he earned conference honors the past two seasons at Stanford, but it wasn’t until Alston’s performance in Indianapolis (4.40, 40” vertical, and 30 repetitions of 225) that scouts really began to appreciate Alston’s upside. Teams are split as to Alston’s better pro position, but all indications are that he won’t make it out of the first day.

Falling

Tamba Hali, DE, Penn State: There might not be a player in the draft who has dropped more significantly over the past two weeks than Hali. The Big Ten Defensive Lineman of the Year failed to distinguish himself at the Senior Bowl and after passing on an opportunity to work out at the Combine, Hali struggled terribly at his pro day, running in the 4.9s on a track despite weighing in 12 pounds less than at the Combine (263 down from 275). Pass rushers with his track record and character don’t fall too far, but the mid second round is now a likelier landing spot for Hali than the mid first, as was once felt.

Michael Huff, S, Texas: Most prospects whose stock is falling this close to the draft suffered a poor workout, but in the case of Michael Huff, the realities of his pro position are simply catching up to his big name. Huff is one of the top defensive backs in the 2006 draft, but despite possessing 4.37 speed, most scouts feel he is better served remaining at safety rather than switching to cornerback at the next level. Had Huff been able to prove beyond doubt that he could cornerback, he likely would have emerged as a top seven pick. As it stands now, Huff is more likely to be selected in the mid teens.

Jason Avant, WR, Michigan: Avant is considered by many to be one of the draft’s top possession receivers and his senior season totals at Ann Arbor (82 receptions for 1,007 yards, 8 TDs) bear witness that he is plenty capable of performing in this role. That said, Avant didn’t stand out at the Senior Bowl and recently ran two 4.8 40s at his Pro Day.

Chad Greenway, OLB, Iowa: Despite a spectacular career at Iowa and a strong performance at the Senior Bowl, Greenway’s performance in workouts have been so average, teams are a little apprehensive. Greenway, who is recognized as one of the draft’s better coverage linebackers, only ran the 40 in 4.76 seconds and didn’t alleviate concerns about his playing strength with only 16 reps of 225 at the Combine. Most scouts feel that Greenway has been too good for too long to drop out of the first round, but it would no longer be a shocker to see this occur.

Santonio Holmes, WR, Ohio State: Holmes is universally regarded as one of the draft’s most explosive receivers, but his stock could take a tumble due to the unfortunate combination of Chad Jackson’s emergence and Holmes’ inconsistencies on film. Once considered the top receiver of the draft, Holmes’ star has faded ever since electing not to work out and allowing Chad Jackson and his 4.32 forty to steal the show. While the former Buckeye virtually matched Jackson’s time at a subsequent workout (4.34), Holmes’ lack of prototype size (5-11, 179 pounds) and a surprising number of drops on film have scouts moving Holmes down the board. The speedster is too dangerous to drop too low, but he has certainly given up his post as the top wideout of the draft. In fact, some teams have graded him as a second round prospect.

Alan Zemaitis, CB, Penn State: Like his former teammate, Tamba Hali, Penn State’s March 16th Pro Day was not a kind one for Zemaitis. Though Zemaitis, at 6-1, 194 pounds, wasn’t expected to be a speed demon, estimates on his 40 hovered in the mid 4.4s. Unfortunately, however, Zemaitis ran in the high 4.5s and didn’t look as explosive as expected in other drills, either. Some of his biggest supporters among scouts know believe he’ll be limited in the types of defensive schemes through which he can be successful at the NFL level.

Ko Simpson, FS, South Carolina: Ko Simpson did everything right at the Combine – except, apparently, treat his conversations with teams as the job interviews they are. Teams were already concerned about the maturity of the sophomore safety, and Simpson’s lackadaisical approach to the interviews simply heightened apprehension further. A first round caliber prospect, there are some teams who simply now won’t consider Simpson until at least a round later.

[TJJackson]

I had written Tamba Hali off my draft board in any round a month ago - unfortunately my distaste for Penn State players contributes to this

Very interesting, particularly re: Ko Simpson

Listening, WCA?

[WretchedOne]

Media coverage of the draft is crazy.

On one hand you have this guy saying good things about VYs pro day, then on the other hand I've read numerous reports about how scouts were not pleased that he threw indoors and that he threw only VERY easy passses as well.

(easy passes = better accuracy)

[HairOnFire]

I'm encouraged that Hali is said to be falling as it makes it more likely that he'll be available when the Bengals draft. If they then choose to pass on him, or Kiwi, then so be it, but I'd love to see them have the opportunity to upgrade the DE positon. And the same thing is true of Greenway. He's never been a favorite of mine, but it seems obvious that the Bengals are looking harder at LB's than most of us first thought.

It was also interesting to read how McCargo and Cromartie have risen up draft boards. If you close your eyes and concentrate you can almost hear the howls of complaints should the Bengals select either one with the 1st round pick, but it shouldn't be the surprise bombshell that many would think.

[TJJackson]

Tamba is very, very slow

[BlainThePain]

Tamba is very, very slow

I never really liked him as a prospect, either. I'd much rather have Kiwi.

[thepudgester]

Tamba is very, very slow

No he's not. Just watch some PSU games or the Senior Bowl. Hali stands out at getting a quick jump off the ball and showing great explosion. In my opinion Hali is a Late 1st Rounder, but let me tell you, he is not very, very slow. Ok, the guy ran a 4.88 at his Pro Day, not good at all, but not very, very, slow. Victor Adeyanju clocked in at 4.86 at the Combine and he's considered a decent to fast player (though he clocked a 4.67 on his Pro Day) After looking at those times by the PSU guys, I think it may have had to be a slower than normal track, I'd project Hali at a 4.77 or something around that.

Also, the article exagerrated everything a little bit... Huff doesn't fall past #9 to Detroit.

[TJJackson]

the guy ran a 4.88 at his Pro Day, not good at all, but not very, very, slow

err, uh, for his size, that's slow.

certainly too slow for a r1 pick

I would wager good money (if I had any, but I am married with kids, so....) he'll fall to at the very least the middle of round 2

[bengalsLB]

Man Tamba is Game time , 40 times are waaay overrated Tamba will be a probowl DE in the league and would be a upgrade over anyone we currently have.

[Whur CHad At?]

I'd Still take Ko...has way too much potential. I won't change my approach like you do TJ. I don't just base players on their 40 times.

[TJJackson]

Look again, the fellow said nada about speed

----

Ko Simpson, FS, South Carolina: Ko Simpson did everything right at the Combine – except, apparently, treat his conversations with teams as the job interviews they are. Teams were already concerned about the maturity of the sophomore safety, and Simpson’s lackadaisical approach to the interviews simply heightened apprehension further. A first round caliber prospect, there are some teams who simply now won’t consider Simpson until at least a round later.

---

[HairOnFire]

At this point I'll take Tamba over Kiwi.

As for Ko, for all of the talk about his hitting ability the stats I've seen show he's never forced a single fumble. What's up wid dat?

[schweinhart]

Seems far-fetched about Ko. Any team past the middle of the 1st round should still have to use their 1st rounder if they want him. The only reason he's not a 1st rounder is because he is more free safety than anything else.

McCargo in the 1st round is very stretchy because there's still enough unanswered questions to raise the necessary doubt for him to drop. He's got a knack but he's not a freak.

Hali is relentless, slow or not. But unless teams think he can add weight to play 3-4 DE, he's at his ceiling already as a 4-3 interior run defending DE with average contain ability who is well conditioned and dedicated enough to keep pass rushing even if he's bound not to apply a lot of pressure at the next level. Classic overachiever.

Now that Antonio Cromartie fella.....

What an effing FREAK

[Sox]

I really think the NFL needs to throw out traditional 40 times,and recquire all players to run the 40 in pads,and on the field.

Running in shorts on a track designed for speed is just a ridiculous way to judge a player's football speed.

[NJ29]

Man Tamba is Game time , 40 times are waaay overrated Tamba will be a probowl DE in the league and would be a upgrade over anyone we currently have.

I agree witcha LB, Hali's got explosiveness. (Read: David Pollack)

Now that Antonio Cromartie fella.....

What an effing FREAK

Cromartie in stripes would make me do this:

[schweinhart]

[Spain]

That right up on huff makes him seem to A Marvin guy. The tweener safety type. That can play everything. He would be a great fit here. Top ten pick with position problems. This to me looks like a Marvin pick.

[bengalboomer7]

That right up on huff makes him seem to A Marvin guy. The tweener safety type. That can play everything. He would be a great fit here. Top ten pick with position problems. This to me looks like a Marvin pick.

Too bad he'll be long gone

[Whur CHad At?]

I really think the NFL needs to throw out traditional 40 times,and recquire all players to run the 40 in pads,and on the field.

Running in shorts on a track designed for speed is just a ridiculous way to judge a player's football speed.

Wow, I totally agree with you. I don't see players running out there in shorts and a T-shirt on the field?

[bengalboomer7]

It been awhile but theres a good articel somewhere on NFL.com where they combine short shuttle, bench press, and vertical to come up with an aggregate score. It's supposed to judge explosiveness and other stuff. Can't remember who wrote it, but it was cool I thought.

[Spain]

Boomer Im starting to think he will be there! Thats a 3-4 D back like M Williams and palomo. This guy has to be on their radar. Marvins going to set him let him work his way in. Great pick! I could see it hapening.

[thepudgester]

I wouldn't categorize Holmes as dropping, just Jackson as rising...

[Whur CHad At?]

I wouldn't put Simpson as falling either. From what I have heard his stock is raising big time.

[Kazkal]

I wouldn't put Simpson as falling either. From what I have heard his stock is raising big time.

I woulden't say he was falling either but as said other people are rising and sense start theirs been a question about ko (don't get me wrong if he's there i'm all cool with what ever rnd bengals take him in) + safetys don't go 1st rnd very often 1-2 @ most it seems and that looks to be huff and probbley whitner

[DesperateDerelict]

It been awhile but theres a good articel somewhere on NFL.com where they combine short shuttle, bench press, and vertical to come up with an aggregate score. It's supposed to judge explosiveness and other stuff. Can't remember who wrote it, but it was cool I thought.

The measurement is called KEI => there's a long article about it at www.stillers.com An excerpt:

Last year, we spent some effort tabulating Front 7 and O-line personnel per the so-called Kirwan Explosiveness Index (KEI). Mr. Kirwan, now doing analysis at nfldot but formerly with the NJJ FO, purported that impact on-field performance can be predicted by compiling the results of (3) Combine tests. Those are: vertical jump (VJ), long jump (LJ) and bench reps. Mr. Kirwan set the threshold sum at 70, the magic number as it were.