FINAL Mock Draft Big Board 4/29

[HoosierCat]

Here's the breakdown of players that (non-member) mocks being tracked on bengalszone's mock draft database page are choosing:

DT Rodrique Wright 8

DT Gabe Watson 6

S Darnell Bing 4

DE Tamba Hali 4

DT Claude Wroten 3

DT Orien Harris 2

TE Leonard Pope 2

DT Brodrick Bunkley 2

S Ko Simpson 1

DE Elvis Dumervil 1

TE Vernon Davis 1

DT Jesse Mahelona 1

Falling off: TE Marcedes Lewis

Rising the most over the past week are DT Gabe Watson (thanks to a good showing at the Senior Bowl workouts) and S Darnell Bing. DTs Broderick Bunkley and Orien Harris also each picked up a vote.

Falling are DTs Claude Wroten and, despite being leader of the pack, Rodrique Wright. Both saw some mockers shift from them to Gabe Watson. Marcedes Lewis also lost what few votes he had, but that was mostly as a result of shifts to alternative TEs Leonard Pope and Vernon Davis.

DT is far and way the favorite position selection in the first round...

DT 22

S 5

DE 5

TE 3

[NJ29]

I'm not suprised to see such skewed results. Mock Draft people look at teams that aren't very familiar with, and the nthey look at stats. They see that our run D is bad, but our pass D had a lot of INTs. They don't know little thing s like Marvin's philosophy about safeties and quick DTs.

[HoosierCat]

I think the skew right now is mostly a result of uncertainty over who's the No. 2 DT. Ngata is seen far and away as the No. 1 and will likely go in the first 10 picks. But after that, the next DT off the board could very well be whoever the Bengals take. And if that's the case -- that there's only 1 DT off the board when the Bengals pick -- I think DT is an extremely strong possibility.

Once the debate over the No. 2 DT settles down I think you will see more "votes" move toward other positions. I intend to keep the big board updated, so we'll see.

I don't think any of the DTs suggested are really non-Marvin types. Even big-boy Watson has some athleticism; he could end up being a Sam Adams type, tho personally I wouldn't get my hopes up. At this point, if I had to pick one, I would go with Wright.

[HoosierCat]

Since I probably won't have a chance to do this tomorrow, I'll update the mock draft Big Board a day early. Here's how it stands:

DT Rodrique Wright 9 (+1)

DT Gabe Watson 7 (+1)

DT Brodrick Bunkley 4 (+2)

S Darnell Bing 4 (no change)

DE Tamba Hali 3 (-1)

DT Claude Wroten 3 (no change)

DT Orien Harris 2 (no change)

TE Leonard Pope 2 (no change)

S Ko Simpson 2 (+1)

TE Vernon Davis 2 (+1)

TE Marcedes Lewis 1 (+1)

CB Tye Hill 1 (+1)

DE Elvis Dumervil 1 (no change)

DT Jesse Mahelona 1 (no change)

By Position:

DT 26 (+4)

S 6 (+1)

TE 5 (+2)

DE 4 (-1)

CB 1 (+1)

Most of the changes result from new mock drafts entering the picture, but that did mask a few shifts, including a couple mocks that swapped out Wright and Watson for Buckley, and Mercedes Lewis for Vernon Davis. Ko Simpson lost one and gained two. A corner, Tye Hill, makes its first appearance on the Board.

DT remains the runaway favorite by position, but the fact that there are 6 different DTs named in various mocks speaks to a broad lack of consensus about the true level of talent that will be there at 24.

[NJ29]

Thanks for the update...

[BengalChamps]

Strange that only 2 safeties are mentioned. Safety is a bigger need than DT IMO.

[schweinhart]

This might be the 3rd year in a row that the "Mockspert" consensus has thought DT would be the Bengals 1st round pick.

Interesting, though, that the Bengals didn't even draft a DT last year, isn't it? And only have a 4th rounder -- the fearsome Mathias Askew -- to show for the last 2 drafts.

I don't think they'll draft a DT until the 5th round this year -- one of Steve Fifita, LeKevin Smith, or Johnny Jolly.

As for safety, it still makes little sense to burn a 1st rounder on a position that can be filled adequately fairly easily. The Bengals had Kevin Kaeshviharn and Ifeyani Ohalete as the safeties for most of last season and still finished 11-6. No doubt the position has to be upgraded, but get a player at a more premium -- and costlier -- position than safety for a 1st rounder.

[Tasher]

Askew was supposed to be a first round pick this year or last year, we just took him early!

[scott91575]

Dear God no not Watson! He is full of one time great games and then dissapears.

[NJ29]

Dear God no not Watson! He is full of one time great games and then dissapears.

Yo! I'd say that sums him up pretty well.

[HoosierCat]

This might be the 3rd year in a row that the "Mockspert" consensus has thought DT would be the Bengals 1st round pick.

Interesting, though, that the Bengals didn't even draft a DT last year, isn't it? And only have a 4th rounder -- the fearsome Mathias Askew -- to show for the last 2 drafts.

I don't think they'll draft a DT until the 5th round this year -- one of Steve Fifita, LeKevin Smith, or Johnny Jolly.

As for safety, it still makes little sense to burn a 1st rounder on a position that can be filled adequately fairly easily. The Bengals had Kevin Kaeshviharn and Ifeyani Ohalete as the safeties for most of last season and still finished 11-6. No doubt the position has to be upgraded, but get a player at a more premium -- and costlier -- position than safety for a 1st rounder.

Well, I would say that the fact the Bengals haven't taken a DT, despite obvious needs, only increases the likelihood thatr they will finally bite the DT bullet this year. I could very easily see them taking Wright/Watson/Bunkley/pick one in the first and still selecting a guy like Fifta or Smith later on.

Not surprisingly there were a number of mock draft updates in the last couple days (I just finished updating the mock draft page a little while ago) and it's notable that they seems to be inching away from DT a bit. Versus my last update, where there were 26 DT votes vs. 16 votes for any other position, the most recent updates (mocks updated in the last 7 days, i.e. in Feb.) break down to 8 selections at DT and 8 elsewhere. Basically it looks like S and TE gaining. DE/LB Manny Lawson also makes his first appearance as a Bengals selection, further muddying the waters.

[HoosierCat]

This weekend's look at the "big board":

DT Rodrique Wright 10 (+1)

DT Gabe Watson 6 (-1)

TE Leonard Pope 4 (+2)

DT Claude Wroten 4 (+1)

DT Brodrick Bunkley 4 (no change)

S Darnell Bing 4 (no change)

DT Orien Harris 2 (no change)

S Ko Simpson 2 (no change)

TE Vernon Davis 2 (no change)

WR Derek Hagen 1 (+1)

DE Manny Lawson 1 (+1)

TE Marcedes Lewis 1 (no change)

CB Tye Hill 1 (no change)

DE Elvis Dumervil 1 (no change)

DT Jesse Mahelona 1 (no change)

DE Tamba Hali 1 (-2)

By Position:

DT 27 (+1)

TE 7 (+2)

S 6 (no change)

DE 3 (-1)

CB 1 (no change)

WR 1 (+1)

Biggest gainer was TE Leonard Pope, but DT remains the overwhelming choice by position. Rod Wright pushed his tally into double digits. Newcomers this week are Arizona WR Derek Hagen and North Carolina State DE Manny Lawson. Falling hardest was DE Tamba Hali.

In the second, so far there's too few mocks to really get a read, but LSU DT Kyle Williams, Notre Dame TE Anthony Fasano, and Tennessee safety Jason Allen have all been hanging in with a couple votes each for a while now. Safety is the leading position in the second right now with 5 (out of 16) votes.

[HairOnFire]

Newcomers this week are Arizona WR Derek Hagen....

Screw 'dat.

[HoosierCat]

Newcomers this week are Arizona WR Derek Hagen....

Screw 'dat.

Yeah, I didn't think Hagen fit the (possible) Henry hole very well, either. Nor am I crazy about WR in the first.

[schweinhart]

Hagan really doesn't get much separation off his breaks on middle of the field routes from what I've seen. Without the threat that he can break off inside or out, he won't beat anybody deep given his average speed. And he's pretty much worthless at a running a stop. I thought he had a chance to elevate himself this year as the 1st receiver taken in the draft but it's not going to happen. Maybe somebody for the Bengals to look at if he's available in the 3rd but there'd still be too many solid picks on defense there for the taking IMO.

I think the next time you update this Joisey that Claude Wroten will get some of those Rod Wright picks. Wroten got his felony dope charges dropped and mocks that might have had him dropping out of the 1st should boost him back up. I still think Wroten is the most versatile D-lineman in the draft and the fastest at game speed inside. The combine website has him on the player list so maybe he gets that shot now to impress teams and overcome his hopefully short-lived stupidity.

http://bastrop.townnews.com/articles/2006/.../news/news7.txt

[HoosierCat]

I think the next time you update this Joisey that Claude Wroten will get some of those Rod Wright picks.

On the DT front, the early movement this week looks to be back toward Watson. Go figure. My impression is that opinion on Wright is polarized: either the mocker thinks he's a slam-dunk stud, or barely worthy of a late-round pick. So I suspect many of his current "votes" will be stuck in cement through April.

What's notable is that, at one point or another, some mock has had us taking in the second Bunkley, Harris, Watson, Wroten or Wright. There is just zero consensus on DTs after Ngata. It doesn't look like any will emerge until after the combine and pro days.

Re Hagen, yeah, he just struck me as a posession guy. A good one, no doubt, but not a fit in Cincy.

(EDIT: Good news! Wroten did gain a vote today...but because vip dumped its oddball choice of Manny Lawson...so long, Manny, we hardly knew ye...)

[schweinhart]

I got a chance to catch Mike Mayock today on NFLN give his WR run down and he's got Hagan as the 5th behind:

1. Santonio Holmes

2. Demetrius Williams

3. Sinorice Moss

4. Chauncey Stovall.

He's guessing Stovall and Hagan are 3rds, Williams and Moss 2nds, and Holmes the only 1st round WR.

TE wise Mayock said he's seeing 7 or 8 Day 1 TEs with:

1. Vernon Davis Top 15

2. Marcedes Lewis early 2nd

3. Leonard Pope 2nd

4. Joe Klopfenstein 2nd-3rd

5. Anthony Fasano 3rd

He also mentioned David Thomas but no one else. Gotta think Dominque Byrd is definitely Day 1.

Oops, make Chauncey Stovall Maurice Stovall. I got some residue in there from some where.

[turningpoint]

yeah i was going to correct you....but nice work.

[HairOnFire]

Newcomers this week are Arizona WR Derek Hagen....

Screw 'dat.

Yeah, I didn't think Hagen fit the (possible) Henry hole very well, either. Nor am I crazy about WR in the first.

Actually I hadn't bothered considering those things. I just hate the way Hagen catches the ball, or doesn't, depending on if he let another one get into his body instead of snatching it with his hands. As silly as this might sound I think he's overrated due to the numbers he's produced.

[kingwilly]

Hagan needs to be coached up. if we keep Hue, he could turn him into a very good player...not saying we should take him but as project, he could be sorted out. Hopefully we do not take a hagan inr1.

Interesting that Mayock omits Chad Jackson from his top 5...Devin Hester and Martin Nance also should get some interest.

[schweinhart]

Interesting that Mayock omits Chad Jackson from his top 5...Devin Hester and Martin Nance also should get some interest.

It's not just Mayock dropping Chad Jackson. The NFL Draft Scout site most recently ranked him the 13th WR with a 3rd or 4th round projection and ...on top of that....dropping. I just don't see how for a WR that productive with the size and speed to stretch the field and produce over the middle. I can't find where his draft service evaulation projected him before he came out early, but regardless something about Jackson is not cutting it. He'll have the combine to change minds.

Mayock did mention Hester and said most teams are grading him as a 2nd rounder. But he included Hester with his "Others" as possible WRs that also included Michael Robinson and Brad Smith. The rationale for not including Hester as a WR was that he could also be a CB and was definitely a returner. One of Mayock's points was that teams didn't know how Hester would fit on either side of the ball yet because he couldn't crack either side to start for Miami.

Martin Nance is much like Stovall and Hagan in that the vertcial threat these WRs pose is not likely to boost their interest among teams. But if teams think that vertcial threat is there enough to be situationally used, then all 3 could pop the 2nd round because their possession WR skills are enough to get them close anyway. I'd say of the 3, Stovall has the better chance to go in round 2 and probably will given the WR class.

[HoosierCat]

Some changes starting to happen…

DT Gabe Watson 10 (+4)

DT Rodrique Wright 9 (-1)

DT Claude Wroten 5 (+1)

S Darnell Bing 5 (+1)

S Ko Simpson 4 (+2)

TE Leonard Pope 4 (no change)

TE Marcedes Lewis 3 (+2)

DT Brodrick Bunkley 3 (-1)

TE Vernon Davis 2 (no change)

DE Mathais Kiwanuka 1 (+1)

WR Derek Hagen 1 (no change)

CB Tye Hill 1 (no change)

DE Elvis Dumervil 1 (no change)

DT Jesse Mahelona 1 (no change)

DE Tamba Hali 1 (no change)

By Position:

DT 28 (+1)

TE 9 (+2)

S 9 (+3)

DE 3 (no change)

CB 1 (no change)

WR 1 (no change)

Biggest change, obviously, was Watson finally edging Wright out of the No. 1 spot. Claude Wroten seems to be settling in as the No. 3 choice among DTs; how high he eventually floats is anyone's guess. Bunkley is falling up. That is to say, conventional draft wisdom now seems to be that he will go before 24. The biggest loser in all this was DT Orien Harris, who along with DE Manny Lawson, falls off the board this week.

TE and S continued to gain in popularity as well, with Ko Simpson and Marcedes Lewis ticking upward. Vernon Davis is hovering; like Bunkley a lot of people are now projecting him to be gone by the time we pick.

DE Mathais Kiwanuka makes his first appearance on the big board this week.

By position, non-DT picks continue to gain on DT selections. Last week it was 27 DT picks and 18 at all other positions. This week it's 28 DT picks and 23 elsewhere.

In the second, we have 19 mocks with selections. The leaders are:

TE Dominique Byrd 3

S Jason Allen 2

DT Kyle Williams 2

Then 12 players with 1 vote each. Positionally, the leaders in the 2nd are:

TE 5

DT 4

S 4

CB 3

DE 2

C 1

[schweinhart]

Biggest change, obviously, was Watson finally edging Wright out of the No. 1 spot. Claude Wroten seems to be settling in as the No. 3 choice among DTs; how high he eventually floats is anyone's guess. Bunkley is falling up. That is to say, conventional draft wisdom now seems to be that he will go before 24. The biggest loser in all this was DT Orien Harris, who along with DE Manny Lawson, falls off the board this week.

I'm surprised Rod Wright is still getting picked at all. Watson is asking a lot of faith on the part of the team that would consider drafting him in the 1st. But so is Wroten for different reasons. At least Wroten's problems can be covered in contract language and attached to his signing bouns.

[NJ29]

Schweiny, I think your boy Demetrius Williams is flying so under the radar that we could get him in the third.

[cover2]

not exactly!

http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/profile.php?pyid=15327