My projections on Palmer

[gregstephens]

http://www.examiner.com/examiner/x-7774-Cincinnati-Bengals-Examiner~y2009m6d26-2009-projections--Carson-Palmer

Let's see how close you all think I'll come.

[whizzo]

i'm gonna go under... just over 4000 yards and 27 TDs to go along with 15 INTs.

[wpeldios]

First off, nice to meet everyone. Been reading the board here for a bit, decided its time to start joining in.

On to Palmer. Was a great read, however I do think 1 thing didnt seem to be taken into consideration. With the Bengals improved defense, I don't see Palmer needing to throw the ball as often as he has had to in the past. As a result I could see less attempts, but a higher completion percentage.

I will go with, 68% completion, 3900yds, 28tds, 14ints.

[gregstephens]

First off, nice to meet everyone. Been reading the board here for a bit, decided its time to start joining in.

On to Palmer. Was a great read, however I do think 1 thing didnt seem to be taken into consideration. With the Bengals improved defense, I don't see Palmer needing to throw the ball as often as he has had to in the past. As a result I could see less attempts, but a higher completion percentage.

I will go with, 68% completion, 3900yds, 28tds, 14ints.

Hey, man. Welcome to the board!

You're right, I didn't really factor in either the alleged improved defense or special teams units.

I could see it cut both ways. As you say, a better defense allows fewer points, meaning we don't have to go to the air to play catch up ball.

On the other hand, a big complaint has always been the defense staying on the field too long because they can't hold on third down.

If this defense, hopefully aided by better field position from special teams, can get off the field quicker, allows our offense to run more plays.

Push?

[ArmyBengal]

That means he will have career bests in passing yards and TD's...

I would be more than happy with that, but yeah, an improved defense and running back that is capable of 1200+ yards with an improved o-line may mean less from Carson in the yardage and TD stats. I can't say as I would mind that in the least, but everything will be dependent on the o-line finding it's place early and then staying healthy. If the defense can't get off the field and we are playing from behind, Carson will be forced to throw a ton once again...

[gregstephens]

That means he will have career bests in passing yards and TD's...

I would be more than happy with that, but yeah, an improved defense and running back that is capable of 1200+ yards with an improved o-line may mean less from Carson in the yardage and TD stats. I can't say as I would mind that in the least, but everything will be dependent on the o-line finding it's place early and then staying healthy. If the defense can't get off the field and we are playing from behind, Carson will be forced to throw a ton once again...

And granted I went with 520 attempts per season, which translates into 32.5 per game. An improved D and/or running game may cut that down to about 27 or 28 per. I might have overshot on that.

Or at least...I hope I have.

[ArmyBengal]

I actually got started at looking at the comparison of how the teams with a top 5 defense did in regards to their passing QB, running game, and sacks allowed, but got caught up with other things. I remember of the top 5 defensive teams, only one had a QB in the top 10 in passing yards and only one had a RB in the top 10 of rushing yardage. There was more, but you get my point. The one thing I do know is, I'm looking forward to this season.

[7/11]

i see carson throwing a better percentage and less INTs than '07, simply because he has many more weapons. assuming coffman and utecht are healthy and ready, carson has 7 or 8 viable options when you add henry, coles, chad, caldwell, scott, chatman/brown, even benson.

i'll say 67% completetion, 3900 yds, 28 TDs, 14 INTs.

[whizzo]

i'm gonna go under... just over 4000 yards and 27 TDs to go along with 15 INTs.

imma redo my prediction... lewis said he wanted to run the ball more, and we finally have the personnel to do so - a good oline, a proper FB, and a very nice selection of RBs. so i think we'll see about 3700 yards, 25 TDs, and 15 INTs from carson.

[Bearcat1975]

A couple of things...

First off, nice read.

Secondly, why did you skip 2008? 2008 is the reason why my outlook for Palmer this season is not as sunny. I still don't think he has the planting leg issue resolved. When he is under pressure, his passes tend to sail high on him.

And make no mistake, with this oline, Palmer is going to see pressure again. I have to say the most frustrating thing about the past 4 seasons is not that their oline sucks. It does, but that's not the worst thing. The absolute WORST thing is the Bengals (and many posters here) continued insistence that the oline does not suck.

Every offseason people insist that the oline is good to go. So nothing is done to correct it. If it were me, and no good free agents or trading partners were available to upgrade the oline, then I would adjust the offense to more of a west coast or 3 step drop configuration. ANYTHING is better than doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

Kyle Cook. Really? I'm sorry but Cook and The Rook vs the AFC North?

And Smith. You know he is in for a long holdout. So basically we will have the same line that got Palmer killed last year, minus Guychick/Andrews, and plus Cook/The Rook.

Give Palmer a good oline, and he is among the best in the NFL. The last time the Bengals gave him a good oline was 2005. Now you tell me...is this year's version of the oline more like 2005's oline or more like 2006-2008s?

Finally, my prediction: The Bengals did not upgrade their oline. Matter of fact, they lost 2 starters. Now, you can say "addition by subtraction," but that usually happens when you cut depth, sign talent, and the former starters become your depth. Not when you cut 2 starters and replace them with 2 rookies and a guy with practically zero NFL experience.

Palmer is going to get killed again this season. It isn't a matter of "if," but rather "when." Its just a shame... 4 years now they have done this to Palmer. But again, I don't know what is worse: The annual lack of addressing the glaring issues on the oline, or the annual insistence that "everything is just fine."

[gregstephens]

A couple of things...

First off, nice read.

Secondly, why did you skip 2008? 2008 is the reason why my outlook for Palmer this season is not as sunny. I still don't think he has the planting leg issue resolved. When he is under pressure, his passes tend to sail high on him.

And make no mistake, with this oline, Palmer is going to see pressure again. I have to say the most frustrating thing about the past 4 seasons is not that their oline sucks. It does, but that's not the worst thing. The absolute WORST thing is the Bengals (and many posters here) continued insistence that the oline does not suck.

Every offseason people insist that the oline is good to go. So nothing is done to correct it. If it were me, and no good free agents or trading partners were available to upgrade the oline, then I would adjust the offense to more of a west coast or 3 step drop configuration. ANYTHING is better than doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

Kyle Cook. Really? I'm sorry but Cook and The Rook vs the AFC North?

And Smith. You know he is in for a long holdout. So basically we will have the same line that got Palmer killed last year, minus Guychick/Andrews, and plus Cook/The Rook.

Palmer, when healthy, is a pretty good QB. But only when he is given time to throw. If he is pressured, he starts to suck, and then he gets hurt trying to do too much.

Give Palmer a good oline, and he is among the best in the NFL. The last time the Bengals gave him a good oline was 2005. Now you tell me...is this year's version of the oline more like 2005's oline or more like 2006-2008s?

Finally, my prediction: The Bengals did not upgrade their oline. Matter of fact, they lost 2 starters. Now, you can say "addition by subtraction," but that usually happens when you cut depth, sign talent, and the former starters become your depth. Not when you cut 2 starters and replace them with 2 rookies and a guy with practically zero NFL experience.

Palmer is going to get killed again this season. It isn't a matter of "if," but rather "when." Its just a shame... 4 years now they have done this to Palmer. But I don't know what is worse: The annual lack of addressing the glaring issues on the oline, or the annual insistence that "everything is just fine."

Well, I skipped 2008 because he didn't have a full body of work to look at. Plus, I do think this oline is going to be better than last year. I think virtually anyone will be an upgrade of sorts over Ghiachuc. Smith will holdout, but he'll be signed by season's start, latest.

I don't think this line is as good as 2005, obviously, but may not be worse than 2007, where Ghiachuc was center and Steinbach had just left. Looking at Palmer's stats from 2007, he had decent stats, but threw way more than he will this year because of the lack of running game with Watson and Rudi.

Anyway, thanks for the props.

[whizzo]

The annual lack of addressing the glaring issues on the oline

they can't do more than draft an o-lineman in the first round...

[Bearcat1975]

The annual lack of addressing the glaring issues on the oline

they can't do more than draft an o-lineman in the first round...

You're right, what was I thinking. Its the Bengals we're talking about here.

I mean they drafted an olinemen in the 1st round. What more can they be expected to do?

[Kazkal]

The annual lack of addressing the glaring issues on the oline

they can't do more than draft an o-lineman in the first round...

You're right, what was I thinking. Its the Bengals we're talking about here.

I mean they drafted an olinemen in the 1st round. What more can they be expected to do?

What else do expect for line improvement in this season?

-Sign Jason Brown? The only team felt he was worth the money he got the same people who took laurinaitis over maualuga because of character concerns...

-Draft Max Unger in the 2nd instead of Maualuga? Then have the same questions at center about how unger lacks experience & isn't strong enough for the north?

-Take a guard in the 3rd? We should have just ignored our defense because it was good enough last year o_O

[ArmyBengal]

Addition by subtraction can be looked at different ways I suppose. You can look at it from a positive or negative viewpoint in my estimation, but this is what I believe it to be in the simplest terms: Getting better by getting rid of something that didn't work. In other words, can you get better by getting rid of something ?? Can you add the potential for growth by getting rid of something ?? I think the answer for both of those questions is yes.

Getting rid of Stacey Andrews regardless of how you view him and replacing him with A. Smith is making the o-line better. Maybe not immediately, but there is the potential for growth. Heck, if there is little to no holdout, he still presents a FAR better option than Andrews ever will. While I can't make a call on Cook and in no way, shape, or form will call him the answer against the AFCN opponents, there is also no way any fan of this team can say they were pleased with Ghiaciuc.

If you look solely at the kind of players both Smith and Luigs were at the collegiate level (I know it's different before getting your panties in a wad) there is no way to look at drafting these players as "not addressing the o-line". Once again, I'm not saying this team is going to have the top o-line in the league or anything in the top half for that matter, but they WILL be an improved unit and the act of simply getting rid of Andrews and Ghiaciuc (subtracting) and bringing in youth with a ton of upside (addition) is what makes me happy. I think it will take some time, but they are at least moving in the right direction.

Collins is more than adequate depth and you still have versatile players like Whitworth who can play both tackle and guard. When was the last time this o-line had anything resembling depth ?? I really don't see where the opinion stated above is homerish in the least. It's identifying the fact we have youth and inexperience, while being able to see we got rid of two players that either didn't want to be here or simply couldn't play here. Will their replacements be better ?? It's not known right now, but I'm happy with the replacements we have compared to what we saw last year that weren't going to improve.

And to bring it back on topic, for everything I mentioned above, Carson should have a better season.

[Ickey44]

Well, we lost three starters on the oline: Levi, Stacy, and Girlcheck. Whitworth at LT is un upgrade over Levi. Smith or Collins at RT is an upgrade over Stacy. And Cook (or anyone else that can breathe) is an upgrade over Girlcheck.

No one is saying the line is full of probowlers, but we're saying it's going to be better, which will improve the running game and passing game.

[Bearcat1975]

Well, we lost three starters on the oline: Levi, Stacy, and Girlcheck.

True.

Whitworth at LT is un upgrade over Levi.

Whitworth at LT is an upgrade over post-knee surgery Levi. Whitworth is solid vs the bull rushers, but needs help vs. the speed rushers.

Smith or Collins at RT is an upgrade over Stacy.

Slow down there. Smith has yet to even sign, much less take a snap in the NFL. And with Collins, he looked OK in the last few games but he has no track record of success either.

And Cook (or anyone else that can breathe) is an upgrade over Girlcheck.

Again, not true. Steponovich couldn't beat him out. Cook and the other guy got hurt trying. Fact is, "Girlcheck" makes for a pretty decent backup center for most teams. His body of work is stronger than Cook's, I'll put it that way.

No one is saying the line is full of probowlers, but we're saying it's going to be better, which will improve the running game and passing game.

You're right. No one is saying the line is full of probowlers. What they are saying is "its going to be better because it can't be any worse than what it was last year."

And that, my friends, is Bengals 101. "I don't know anything about this guy, but he HAS to be better than the stiff we had at his position last season." Then preseason brings the annual wake up call.

[ArmyBengal]

Part of the equation being left out is the fact the both Levi and Stacey no longer had the desire to play for the Bengals. Levi became a whiny ass who ended up broke dick and then you had Stacey who pretty much started talking about the day he was going to play with his brother in Philly the day after he signed with the Bengals. The fact they were both banged up is part of it, but the fact they no longer wanted to be here plays a big part in now having players that actually want to contribute to this team being a winner. If what Stacey did last year was considered trying to be a winner, I would hate to see what he would do when he was trying to lose.

Stepanovich sucked balls, but just because he couldn't beat out Ghiaciuc, doesn't mean Ghiaciuc is suddenly a good player. He may be a decent backup center, but not in the AFCN. then again, we will see how he does this year with the Chiefs, but that will only happen if he can win the starting job.

Andre Smith was THE dominant LT in college last season. He was not only considered the best OT in the draft for more than 4 months, but the overall best player in the draft for that same period of time. It wasn't until his poor decision making process that had nothing to do with his on field production that he started to fall. With that being the case there is no reason to think that Andre Smith won't be better than Andrews was at RT and could eventually be better than Levi was at LT in time. It's a work in progress, but he has far more upside than anything we had here last year at the position.

[Wraith]

Not sold on the offensive line pass protecting better than last years, I am convinced the defense will be better and the running game will be better, I am ALMOST convinced that we will have better WR play, Ochenta y Cinco still has something to prove to me but his additude coming into camp is 1000% better.

I say 64% completion rate with 30 TDs 18 INTs and 3846 yards.

[HairOnFire]

And that, my friends, is Bengals 101. "I don't know anything about this guy, but he HAS to be better than the stiff we had at his position last season." Then preseason brings the annual wake up call.

And here's a lesson in Bearcat 101.

Start by complaining about how bad the O-line has been for years. Then add further whining about the dangerous number of starters lost from the previously mentioned horrible O-line. Next, ignore anyone who correctly points out how the Bearcat method is based upon whining about the amount of change taking place within a unit you've consistently and repeatedly demanded be changed. Finally, make a closing remark about how you're smarter than everyone else.

Bearcat 101

[Ickey44]

Well, we lost three starters on the oline: Levi, Stacy, and Girlcheck.

True.

Whitworth at LT is un upgrade over Levi.

Whitworth at LT is an upgrade over post-knee surgery Levi. Whitworth is solid vs the bull rushers, but needs help vs. the speed rushers.

Smith or Collins at RT is an upgrade over Stacy.

Slow down there. Smith has yet to even sign, much less take a snap in the NFL. And with Collins, he looked OK in the last few games but he has no track record of success either.

And Cook (or anyone else that can breathe) is an upgrade over Girlcheck.

Again, not true. Steponovich couldn't beat him out. Cook and the other guy got hurt trying. Fact is, "Girlcheck" makes for a pretty decent backup center for most teams. His body of work is stronger than Cook's, I'll put it that way.

No one is saying the line is full of probowlers, but we're saying it's going to be better, which will improve the running game and passing game.

You're right. No one is saying the line is full of probowlers. What they are saying is "its going to be better because it can't be any worse than what it was last year."

And that, my friends, is Bengals 101. "I don't know anything about this guy, but he HAS to be better than the stiff we had at his position last season." Then preseason brings the annual wake up call.

Perhaps you weren't watching at all last year, but did you see how much better the line played at the end of the year with Livings and Collins in there? Methinks not, otherwise you wouldn't be spouting such ignorance.

Also, as Army pointed out, Stacy and Levi did not want to be here. So as far as I'm concerned, getting rid of players who don't want to be on your team is an upgrade regardless of talent.

As far as Cook not beating out Girlcheck last year, he spent the whole year on IR so that would be a plausible reason for him not to have won the job last year. Also, if, in the Bengals opinion, Girlcheck IS their best option at center, why would they let him go and give the job to Cook? They obviously believe he can do the job and do it better than Girlcheck, so why shouldn't we?

Bearcat, if you assume that the Bengals are always going to suck, and that nothing is ever going to change, why do you come here at all? Why don't you go root for another team? And take your faulty logic with you...

[Bearcat1975]

And take your faulty logic with you...

I would love for the Bengals to prove me wrong, just once.

Sign Smith on time and ready for camp.

Give Palmer and Benson a line to work with.

Go get that 1st tier free agent instead of hand wringing and 2nd tier castoffs.

Quit playing "not to lose" and start playing to win.

Learn some clock management.

Get a GM.

Hire more scouts, quit taxing the coaches.

Spend to the cap, extend a contract or two, whatever.... ANYTHING instead of just pocketing the excess money.

etc etc etc

I would love for the Bengals to prove me wrong, just once.

[redsbengalsbucks]

And take your faulty logic with you...

I would love for the Bengals to prove me wrong, just once.

Sign Smith on time and ready for camp.

Give Palmer and Benson a line to work with.

Go get that 1st tier free agent instead of hand wringing and 2nd tier castoffs.

Quit playing "not to lose" and start playing to win.

Learn some clock management.

Get a GM.

Hire more scouts, quit taxing the coaches.

Spend to the cap, extend a contract or two, whatever.... ANYTHING instead of just pocketing the excess money.

etc etc etc

I would love for the Bengals to prove me wrong, just once.

I cant disagree with most of this, but they have shown a much better involvment with top tier FA's in the last few seasons. Odom and Coles are both top-tier FA's in thier respective years coming to the Bengals and I can not remember when the Bengals were able to get a comparable, if not better, replacement for one of it's stars the same year they left.

If you cant tell I like the Coles signing!!

[Pidge]

I'm not sure Carson will have a huge yr in terms of yards. Hopefully the running game will be greatly improved. If so then I can see him having a good 3000+ yard season and about 20-25 TDs. This is assuming the TE will be used as a short yardage option too and this isn't just some elaborate bluff by the coaching staff.

Also, if the defence continues to improve, he'll have some shorter fields to work with.

So yeah, hoping for about 65% completion, 20-25 TDs and 3000+ yards. After last season that would be a decent tonic for everyone. Of course, he might do way better. I'd settle for that also.

[HairOnFire]

Perhaps you [bearcat] weren't watching at all last year, but did you see how much better the line played at the end of the year with Livings and Collins in there? Methinks not, otherwise you wouldn't be spouting such ignorance.

This.

It's sorta funny how Bearcat continues to whine about the NUMBER of replacement starters the Bengals will turn to this season....because Bearcat has repeatedly admitted his biggest complaint about this offseason is allowing FA center Jason Brown to sign elsewhere. So when you get right down to it Beracats barking about the number of replacements is just empty noise. He's still bitching and moaning about the same thing he was bitching about months ago....and as a result he's not about to wait a moment or two to pass judgement on Cook.

As for Palmer and the projections, we're all plugging in the same numbers more or less....so all I'll add is this. Carson Palmer's vow to dump the ball off to his checkdown options quicker than in the past holds the key to this O-lines success, and Palmers own health.