The Bengals, The Playoff Chase, and You

[membengal]

First, a disclaimer:

I am NOT predicting the Bengals will make the playoffs. Anyone who responds in this thread to point out that they won't make the playoffs, I curse you to be visited by Bax on a nightly basis to discuss with you his thesis that Carson Palmer is the antichrist.

What I am doing is looking at how this season might still hold some relevance for Bengals fans. The look is predicated, in measure, on the suspicion, that if Chris Henry stays healthy and non-suspended, that the team is far more dangerous than it was the first eight games of the year.

With that in mind, where we stand for the Wild Cards:

Bengals 3-6.

Targets:

Jax and Titans both 6-3.

Teams in-between:

Bills and Browns 5-4

Ravens/Broncos/Chiefs 4-5

Now, obviously, it is a tall order to climb all those teams, especially when they Bengals have lost so many H2H to them already. But the goal for this thread is to identify in the short term how to make the season more relelvant. On that note, good news:

Next week, the Bengals host the Cardinals. If the Bengals are going to make it interesting, time to start acting like they belong. If they win, they get to 4-6. What of those that need to start losing? Jax hosts SD and Tenn is at Denver on Monday night. Both losable games for those two teams. The Browns are at the Ravens, and that should be one grumpy Baltimore team looking to take it out on someone at this point. Another loseable game for a team ahead of us. The Bills? Have to play the Pats. Figure an "L" for them. KC's at Indy, and the Colts are all of a sudden needing to win every week to try and preserve a bye in the playoffs (Steelers are pushing them). Looks like an "L" is a possibility for Indy too, for certain.

If everything breaks right next week, and the oddsmakers will be favoring things breaking right, the Bengals could be within two games of the last Wild Card spot with six games to play. And the season would be, at that point, still relevant.

What of Week 12?

Week 12 is a biggie for this dream. The Bengals host the Titans Week 12. Win that, and Cincy is all of a sudden 5-6, and potentially just one game out of the Wild Card. Toss in Buffalo's game at Jax, and one of the problem teams ahead of Cincy will have to lose. Baltimore is at SD, and looking at an L, at which point we would pass them on tiebreakers. Cleveland (hosting Houston) and KC have winnable games, but if everything breaks right, enough will have happened to put Cincy back into absolute relevance. A mere two weeks from now.

What of Week 13?

Week 13 is the problematic one. If everything has broken right, the Bengals are 5-6 and relevant. The difficulty? Other than Jax (at Indy) most of Cincy's playoff foes have winnable weeks (except for B'more against NE and maybe Buffalo at Washington). The Bengals' issue? At Pittsburgh. The solution? Beat those f**ks. What makes that not necessarily a pipe dream? Chris Henry being back (assuming no further suspendable shenanigans). The Steelers already struggle with Cincy's passing game. Add in Henry, and the Bengals match up better. Playing at Heinz does not bother Cincy generally. If the Bengals win that one to get to 6-6, then all bets are off, and the season is back to supreme relevance. With a four week sprint to the playoffs, we would have a legit shot at it.

That is as far as I will look ahead. A three week chunk back to meaningfulness. They can do it (at least for the next two weeks), and the schedule of the teams they need to lose toughens up considerably.

Weird to say, the season is not necessarily over just yet.

Yes, I fully recognize with that defense that they could easily find a way to lose any given week. But if they back into some competence defensively at some point? Just enough to give the offense with Henry a chance to control games? If then, the season still has a pulse.

Peace.

[agreen_112]

I think we can do it - go 10-6, but a three game all-or-nothing stretch scares me. I just want to see us put up some points.

[Riagogogoindanati]

Whilst I appreciate your indepthness, I guess I will just have to see how all this pans out. I would love nothingmore than for the rest of the season to play out like this.

Secondly......did you party with Spain over the weekend?

Thirdly, touchdowns are good.

[membengal]

Again, I am not predicting anything, just looking at what needs to happen to make the season relevant.

Week 11 shapes up OK.

Weeks 12 is a tester, but Tennessee is very beatable.

Week 13 is an issue.

But the thought of them getting at least into the periphery of the playoff conversation is not insane. Riag...you are dangerously close to the Bax curse. Careful...

[membengal]

Plus, if we are going to wring any rooting interests out of this year in terms of other games, might as well identify them now, before it becomes completely moot...

[walzav29]

I'm nervous about the secondary holding up against the Cards, but they do have a screw it we have nothing to lose attitude going for them. Evident by Marvin actually going for it on a 4th down, but they have only beat the Ravens and Jets. What the hell. I'll still be watching.

[ArmyBengal]

Yes, the odds of us getting a top tier defensive player in the draft will probably go out the door right after we fall 1 game short of the playoffs due to the weakass schedule. Hate to think that way, but you know it will probably happen...

WHODEY !!!

[GregCook]

Plus, if we are going to wring any rooting interests out of this year in terms of other games, might as well identify them now, before it becomes completely moot...

Anything is possible in sports til it isn't possible. But thinking 10-6 now, after the Baltimore buzz is kind of like thinking you can beat Ed Reed after your own long draw on the bong. I don't think its remotely realistic for the Bengals to win 7 games in a row. Their defense is just too exploitable at linebacker and secondary. Can they make a run? Sure, especially if Chris Perry can run the ball well and Willie Anderson returns to play soon and Jeanty gets back to where he was, a tackling machine.

[HairOnFire]

Again, I am not predicting anything, just looking at what needs to happen to make the season relevant.

When it comes to searching for relevance I've already defined my goals. Watch each week for signs that this team will do whatever is required to save Marvin's job. Also of great importance are signs that many of the Bengals young players are ready to step up and make real contributions now that they're likely to receive more and more opportunities. On both fronts I'd say the Bengals just stepped up and delivered loud messages, but let's see what next week brings.

No disrespect intended, but dismissing the Bengals chances to make the playoffs while plotting out what they'd have to do to reach that goal seems less like a search for relevance and more like setting Lewis up for another public flogging. Or do you actually think it's realistic to expect an emotionally unstable 2-6 football team to put together a 7-1 stretch drive?

[membengal]

Yes, HoF, I do. In part because I still want to believe that ML can do the job. In part because this team with Chris Henry is potentially capable of such a run. In part because the schedule sets up to allow such a run. The Steeler game excepted (and even that one I can make an argument) they should have a good shot in the remaining games. Their making a decent run is what I am hoping/expecting. The playoffs? A dream, given the help they need, but a not necessarily unrealistic dream, given what the teams they are chasing have to deal with. In the short run, while I am watching the Bengals now win games (knock on wood) with Chris Henry, I also see some help from other teams.

As it stands, I am not looking that far ahead. The next two to three games is enough to let me know what life is still left in the possible corpse...

[derekshank]

When it comes to searching for relevance I've already defined my goals. Watch each week for signs that this team will do whatever is required to save Marvin's job. Also of great importance are signs that many of the Bengals young players are ready to step up and make real contributions now that they're likely to receive more and more opportunities. On both fronts I'd say the Bengals just stepped up and delivered loud messages, but let's see what next week brings.

Those are good goals to look for... but the problem with the Marvin Lewis Bengals is that they are such a tease. They give you a performance every once in a while that makes you believe they could really be great - and you start to see reasons and excuses for why they haven't been... but they do it just enough to make you hate yourself for hoping.

[ShulaSteakhouse]

As long as our Bengals' aren't playing winning/good teams, they have a good shot to win a game.

I think the '03 KC game at home and the Pitt game on the road two years ago are the only two big games this team has won under Marvin so far, unless you consider the rather meaningless MNF Denver game win another one of those.

[Bengals1]

They'll win just enough meaningless games at the end of the year to save everyone's job, give SoP the excuses he needs to blame this dismal season on "injuries" (and by that I mean injuries alone) and keep us from spending any real money in Free Agency or chasing any big ticket players and screw us out of a really good draft pick.

In other words...same ole' bungles.

[HairOnFire]

Yes, HoF, I do. In part because I still want to believe that ML can do the job.

That's the same head coach you've mocked as being clueless and inept for weeks, right? And you've demanded he be fired more times than either of us could count, right? But you now claim it's realistic to expect him to produce a 7-1 stretch drive?

In part because this team with Chris Henry is potentially capable of such a run. In part because the schedule sets up to allow such a run.

The schedule makes such a run possible on paper, but there's simply too little margin for error to believe this team can achieve it. As for Henry's return, it's not only a case of too little too late, but won't be enough to overcome the Bengals inability to run the ball or the next chapter in Chad Johnson's Bi-Polar Saga. (It's coming.)

The playoffs? A dream, given the help they need, but a not necessarily unrealistic dream, given what the teams they are chasing have to deal with.

In their current state the Bengals are no better than the weak competition they'll be facing, and in a prolonged war of cupcake versus cupcake it's unrealistic to expect near perfect results.

As it stands, I am not looking that far ahead. The next two to three games is enough to let me know what life is still left in the possible corpse...

Yesterday offered plenty of proof that this team is still "trying hard"...which is a huge positive. That said, the Bengals didn't so much win their game against the Ravens as much as they found a way to lose a game less than the team they were playing....something they can't count on as often as a playoff drive would require.

[kentjett]

I'm really confident that we could end the last 8 games going 7-1 but will that be enough. Do you think 9-7 will get us a wild card birth. If we end up w/ 8 or 9 wins, it would be a hell of a coaching job. With all the injuries at LB and OL and players bitching left and right. To gather the team and get them to buckle it down in the second half of the season is what a head coach is for. Good head coaches pull their team out of a s**t hole and makes them a competitive team. Both coordinators need to go at the end of the year and we need to lay out the big bucks for Briggs, Dansby or Haynesworth(wishful thinking).

[membengal]

Then again HoF, against other teams, the Bengals convert some of those figgies to TDs. And yes, the same ML I have ridden mercilessly. Just because I am all over him for past failures, doesn't mean that I root for the failures to continue. Far from it. I am not nearly so invested in being "right" that I would root for that.

If he hasn't lost the locker-room, now is a good time to show it. If he can still come up with nuanced game plans, same deal. They are winnable games, all things considered.

I don't know that it is realistic that they come up with a 7-1, but I do think it is possible. There's a difference. And I would like to think that ML, if he still has the fire that he once did, that he can give that a run. I would like to see, at the least, a continuation of that which we saw yesterday, which was a far more disciplined team not prone to the kinds of mistakes, both on the field and in the coaching that have plagued them for too many weeks now...

And, kentjett, I don't if 9-7 would do it or not. Would have a year ago, for what it is worth...

And, Hair, I am not ready to give up on this season and take measured gains just in experience for younger players and what not. The core of this team, especially on offense, has enough to put together winning football. That is not too much to ask. The same fragile nature of this team that led to a 2-6 start might just snowball the other way now, and reinforce winning football. It's not out of the question at all.

[BengalChamps]

Any discussion with the word "playoff" in it can only be a sign of severe amensia about our D, or lack there of. A team with a defense this bad has never made the playoffs.

[HairOnFire]

I don't know that it is realistic that they come up with a 7-1, but I do think it is possible. There's a difference. And I would like to think that ML, if he still has the fire that he once did, that he can give that a run.

I don't doubt Marvin's fire, just his ability to do the near impossible with a still depleted team.

I would like to see, at the least, a continuation of that which we saw yesterday, which was a far more disciplined team not prone to the kinds of mistakes, both on the field and in the coaching that have plagued them for too many weeks now...

Well, now you're talking about the types of goals that I've set. And that's a far cry from a realistic 7-1 playoff drive...something that I felt was impossible after Chad dropped any hope of victory in back-to-back absolute must win games, against Pittsburgh and Buffalo.

[HairOnFire]

Any discussion with the word "playoff" in it can only be a sign of severe amensia about our D, or lack there of. A team with a defense this bad has never made the playoffs.

Fair enough, but I'd say we just witnessed the latest demonstration of the Bengals offense looking remarkably inept on all but a few plays. Are any of us still suprised by the red zone failures? The failure to run the ball? Or how 186 yards of passing in the 1st half can produce just 6 points?

This offense couldn't score in a bordello on payday.

[membengal]

I don't know that it is realistic that they come up with a 7-1, but I do think it is possible. There's a difference. And I would like to think that ML, if he still has the fire that he once did, that he can give that a run.

I don't doubt Marvin's fire, just his ability to do the near impossible with a still depleted team.

I would like to see, at the least, a continuation of that which we saw yesterday, which was a far more disciplined team not prone to the kinds of mistakes, both on the field and in the coaching that have plagued them for too many weeks now...

Well, now you're talking about the types of goals that I've set. And that's a far cry from a realistic 7-1 playoff drive...something that I felt was impossible after Chad dropped any hope of victory in back-to-back absolute must win games, against Pittsburgh and Buffalo.

A far more disciplined team, along the lines of your goals (and mine), has a real shot to go on a run. We may be talking at the same thing. You are leaving room if they come up short not to be in ML's grill. If they play disciplined football and come up short, I won't be in his grill either.