Playoff Possiblities and Scenarios

[HoosierCat]

I really don't see us beating out Baltimore for the division. The hole we dug ourselves is too big. Now it's too little, too late.

Two or three weeks ago I would have agreed wholeheartedly. Now...well, I still agree, but the idea of snatching the division crown from the jaws of Baltimore is less preposterous than it was, IMHO.

We have two teams left which fall in the category of ones we "ought" to beat, Oakland and Pittsburgh. The Bengals have had some problems on that front this year, dropping games to bad teams, but my hope is that the b*tch-slapping of the Browns indicates that they've gotten over that hump.

Then there's Indy and Denver. Indy has been inconsistent this season, and Denver is switching to Cutler, a move that could very easily blow up in Shanahan's face.

Meanwhile, Baltimore has to go to Arrowhead, and also to Pitt, where as much as the Steelers may stink right now, you have to think that they are going to get up to try to avenge their humiliation in Baltimore last week. Cleveland I have little faith in, I think they're done for the year -- but they lost their first game to Balti by just 1 point. And Buffalo looks like they are starting to put together a late-season surge of their own, winning 3 of their last 4, and that one loss being a 1-point one to Indy that they would have won if they had hit a FG at the buzzer.

Bottom line, could the Bengals run the table and Balti drop 2 or more? I doubt it -- but two or three weeks ago I would have said flatly, no way. It's gone, in my mind, from impossible to improbable. We'll see.

[derekshank]

I really don't see us beating out Baltimore for the division. The hole we dug ourselves is too big. Now it's too little, too late.

Two or three weeks ago I would have agreed wholeheartedly. Now...well, I still agree, but the idea of snatching the division crown from the jaws of Baltimore is less preposterous than it was, IMHO...

...Bottom line, could the Bengals run the table and Balti drop 2 or more? I doubt it -- but two or three weeks ago I would have said flatly, no way. It's gone, in my mind, from impossible to improbable. We'll see.

Agreed. The problem is that I'm still not 100% confident that we will role off 7 straight to end the season. 10-6 seems much more probable to me. For that reason alone it seems even less likely that the Bengals will take the division.

I actually think that KC will beat Baltimore... but I don't see the Ravens dropping another one inside the division. Even if we did finish 11-5, Baltimore will more than likely finish 12-4 or better. But you're absolutely right. That dream of making the playoffs has not only been resurrected, but the faint hope of another division title isn't outside the realm of possibility. Not bad for a team that had a losing record a few weeks ago.

Imagine how confident we'd feel if the refs hadn't stolen the Tampa game from us.

[Kazkal]

Well hopfully chargers lose 1 more give colts some breathing room but still bengals have mroe play for 1 loss very well completely knocks us out.

[Kazkal]

More of a chance at WC sense we still could get in with a loss vs the colts...but if we win out I very well could see ravens choking 1 of games vs browns,steelers or bills.

[DC_Bengals_Fan]

I took pretty hard look at the WC scenario - we need the Chiefs to lose. Denver is nearly a lock and the Jets have a stupid easy schedule. KC plays JAX the last week, so that's a guaranteed win for at least one team. I'd like them *both* out of the playoffs by then so that our season doesn't come down to that game.

Basically, the WC teams play each other enough and have mostly weak schedules, that we need them to lose when they play good teams.

We need all the help we can get, and honestly we need Baltimore to fall apart to get the division. Not likely. We'd have to win out, hope they go 2-2, though we would then have the tiebreaker (1st tiebreaker, division record, if they lose a division game, 4th tiebreaker, conf record, if they don't).

Cheer for Baltimore. I don't see us getting 2 games on them with our schedule.

[Tasher]

Here's the deal:

KC still has very tough games vs Balti, San Diego and Jax

They just need to lose one because we hold the tie breaker.

We want KC to BEAT Balti because then Pitt can beat Balti in Pit and that gives us a shot at the division. If it does not happen, we still get the WC.

That is all.

[DC_Bengals_Fan]

Here's the deal:

KC still has very tough games vs Balti, San Diego and Jax

They just need to lose one because we hold the tie breaker.

We want KC to BEAT Balti because then Pitt can beat Balti in Pit and that gives us a shot at the division. If it does not happen, we still get the WC.

That is all.

You forgot that Den is probably already in given their conf record. Also, that JAX/KC game might put JAX in with a JAX win, so we can't really count it to our favor. There are 4 teams besides the Bengals with good WC odds, we need to beat 3 of them.

Also, do you really see Pitt winning in Baltimore?

[HoosierCat]

I took pretty hard look at the WC scenario - we need the Chiefs to lose.

No, we don't. We don't need any other team's help right now. Bengals control their own WC destiny; win out and they are in, regardless of what any other team does.

[Tasher]

Here's the deal:

KC still has very tough games vs Balti, San Diego and Jax

They just need to lose one because we hold the tie breaker.

We want KC to BEAT Balti because then Pitt can beat Balti in Pit and that gives us a shot at the division. If it does not happen, we still get the WC.

That is all.

You forgot that Den is probably already in given their conf record. Also, that JAX/KC game might put JAX in with a JAX win, so we can't really count it to our favor. There are 4 teams besides the Bengals with good WC odds, we need to beat 3 of them.

Also, do you really see Pitt winning in Baltimore?

The next Balti vs Pit is in Pit...

And I have no idea what the heck pit is going to do these days...

...but Pit is certainly not as bad as their record would indicate and I cannot imagine that they do not have some pride and motivation after what Balti just did to them to play well next time.

[HairOnFire]

Two or three weeks ago I would have agreed wholeheartedly. Now...well, I still agree, but the idea of snatching the division crown from the jaws of Baltimore is less preposterous than it was, IMHO.

Welcome to the Blind Homers. We meet every Wednesday at the Legion Hall. Upon arrival you'll be given a handy name tag, a pair of rose colored glasses, and a flyer showing you how to perform the secret handshake.

Oh, and don't forget...the new guy buys the donuts.

[BlainThePain]

You know what I see?

If we beat Oakland next week (and we will) and KC beats the ratbirds at Arrowhead (a distinct possibility), we will be one game off the division lead with three to play. If we win out (we have to) we will hold tiebreakers on the ratbirds, Chiefs and Broncos.

Seems to me that we are not in such a dire situation as many have portrayed us to be in.

Actually, 1st tiebreaker for WC is conf record, and we probably don't take Denver there if we finish 9-7, although if Cutler really sucks it's possible.

I was certainly one who portrayed the dire situation. To get out of it - and we're still not in a playoff spot - we had to beat 7-4, 9-2, and the Browns. I'm glad we did, but being 4-5 with their schedule meant they needed a great run just to get in contention.

Oh, and I'll be pulling for the Ratbirds in KC, that's our best chance of getting into the playoffs.

Actually the first tie breaker for a WC spot is head-to-head. http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakers

[HoosierCat]

Two or three weeks ago I would have agreed wholeheartedly. Now...well, I still agree, but the idea of snatching the division crown from the jaws of Baltimore is less preposterous than it was, IMHO.

Welcome to the Blind Homers. We meet every Wednesday at the Legion Hall. Upon arrival you'll be given a handy name tag, a pair of rose colored glasses, and a flyer showing you how to perform the secret handshake.

Oh, and don't forget...the new guy buys the donuts.

Sorry, but I don't think calling the odds of them getting the AFCN title "less preposterous" qualifies me. I still think the Bengals' playoff chances are in the slim-to-none category. They're going to have to win out to get in, and while I expect them to put up a valiant effort, my crystal ball says they fall short.

[derekshank]

I still think the Bengals' playoff chances are in the slim-to-none category. They're going to have to win out to get in, and while I expect them to put up a valiant effort, my crystal ball says they fall short.

Really? Lets assume we lose to Indy, but finish 10-6. That doesn't seem to me out of the question... and with the way we're playing, it might even be probable. We will still more than likely make it in if that would be the case.

We have the current tie-breakers with KC and NYJ, and would have the tie-breaker with Denver if we were to beat them. Denver also plays Seattle this week (with Cutler making his first start) and they have to play @SD. They will more than likely lose at least one of those (if not both).

Also, despite NYJ's easier schedule, they are not likely to win out. That means it would end up with us and KC as the wild card teams. I think the road for us to get in has been paved fairly well. In my opinion, only KC has a better chance... but that thinking probably qualifies me for the "blind homer" group.

[membengal]

Honestly? Second place and a wild card isn't the worst scenario ever. Second place schedule means Jax and either KC or Denver next year instead of Colts and Chargers. Frankly, let the "resurgant" Ravens deal with that s**te.

10-6 and a Wild Card? Very doable.

Plus, don't hand Denver the keys to the WC as a shoo-in at this point. They lose to the Seahawks this weekend (VERY possible), they are in the scrum with everyone else). We know KC will lose at least once and probably twice more. Bengals simply need to take care of what they need to take care of, and they can make the playoffs. Given the insane amount of injuries this year, Carson's recovery from the knee assisination, and everything else, IF they can get to 10-6, it's been a good year.

At the very least, I appreciate this run if only because it will make the Colts and Broncos games hella interesting again (assuming they take care of business against the Raiders).

Btw, in a lot of respects, regardless of how things turn out, this may be the year ML has turned in his best coaching job, given the off-field stuff, the injuries, and Palmer's rehab and working back into the line-up.

[Arizona]

Um, we've won 5 out of the last 6 games, could we please not write baltimore off as being in a "slide." Hope for the Wild Card and if you get anything more it's gravy.

[Tasher]

Honestly? Second place and a wild card isn't the worst scenario ever. Second place schedule means Jax and either KC or Denver next year instead of Colts and Chargers. Frankly, let the "resurgant" Ravens deal with that s**te.

10-6 and a Wild Card? Very doable.

Plus, don't hand Denver the keys to the WC as a shoo-in at this point. They lose to the Seahawks this weekend (VERY possible), they are in the scrum with everyone else). We know KC will lose at least once and probably twice more. Bengals simply need to take care of what they need to take care of, and they can make the playoffs. Given the insane amount of injuries this year, Carson's recovery from the knee assisination, and everything else, IF they can get to 10-6, it's been a good year.

At the very least, I appreciate this run if only because it will make the Colts and Broncos games hella interesting again (assuming they take care of business against the Raiders).

Btw, in a lot of respects, regardless of how things turn out, this may be the year ML has turned in his best coaching job, given the off-field stuff, the injuries, and Palmer's rehab and working back into the line-up.

Yeah, but I want to play the #1 teams again next year, because if anything we are even better as we get folks back from injury, new rookies, etc.

Test out the keys to the new car, ya know what I mean?

[derekshank]

Btw, in a lot of respects, regardless of how things turn out, this may be the year ML has turned in his best coaching job, given the off-field stuff, the injuries, and Palmer's rehab and working back into the line-up.

Agreed. Well... the 8-8 season with a team that had previously been 2-14 was pretty incredible too. But yeah... Carson's injury, losing players to suspensions, tons of injuries, and now in the hunt for a playoff run. His approval rating should be through the roof.

[DC_Bengals_Fan]

I took pretty hard look at the WC scenario - we need the Chiefs to lose.

No, we don't. We don't need any other team's help right now. Bengals control their own WC destiny; win out and they are in, regardless of what any other team does.

Yet that's not likely, playing Den and Ind. Certainly things look good now for them to possibly go 10-6, but I'd rather have a scenario that doesn't require going 4-0 against a 10-1 and 7-4 team, a divisional rival, and an admitted chump.

And that still might not get the division. Baltimore winning makes the playoffs more likely, thus, I'm pulling for Balt.

[kurgan74]

You forgot that Den is probably already in given their conf record.

I disagree that Denver is going to get in. In fact, with the change to Jay Cutler,

I believe Denver is the most likely team to slide out of the playoffs. I know

the Bengals lost to Tampa with a rookie QB, but the team is definitely

playing better now. The Bengals are getting healthy and seem to be peaking

at the right time.

Denver still has to play Seattle this weekend, play at San Diego on 12/10, a likely win at Arizona

on 12/17, the Bengals on 12/24, and wrap up against San Francisco on 12/31.

Denver could eaily lose 3 of their final 5 and wind up 9 & 7.

I will be rooting for KC against the Ravens then hope for San Diego to knock the Chiefs

off later in the season. Hopefully, the Browns can regain their composure and take down

KC this weekend (stranger things have happened)

[Tasher]

You forgot that Den is probably already in given their conf record.

I disagree that Denver is going to get in. In fact, with the change to Jay Cutler,

I believe Denver is the most likely team to slide out of the playoffs. I know

the Bengals lost to Tampa with a rookie QB, but the team is definitely

playing better now. The Bengals are getting healthy and seem to be peaking

at the right time.

Denver still has to play Seattle this weekend, play at San Diego on 12/10, a likely win at Arizona

on 12/17, the Bengals on 12/24, and wrap up against San Francisco on 12/31.

Denver could eaily lose 3 of their final 5 and wind up 9 & 7.

I will be rooting for KC against the Ravens then hope for San Diego to knock the Chiefs

off later in the season. Hopefully, the Browns can regain their composure and take down

KC this weekend (stranger things have happened)

[kayaker0678]

We will crush IND cause they will have everyting locked up and want to keep everyone heathly

[bengalsrz]

I was thinking about our playoff chances and put together this analysis:

Our playoff chances have dramatically risen. Here is some info:

Rest of Schedule: 7.(AFC Rank) Bengals (7-5)

Week 14: Raiders

Week 15: @Colts

Week 16: @Broncos

Week 17: Steelers

If we go 11-5, or in other words, win all those games, we make it.

If we go 10-6, or go 3-1 the rest of the season, we pretty much make it, but its not guarenteed.

Right now, we are 7-5, both KC and Denver are 7-4, if KC loses to Cleveland, we are tied with them, if Denver loses to Seattle, we are tied with them. So we need to actually root for Cleveland this week.

The division is not yet locked for Baltimore though, we can still win it, here is the rest of Balt's scedhule.

Dec 10 @Kansas City

Dec 17 Cleveland

Dec 24 @Pittsburgh

Dec 31 Buffalo

Not the hardest schedule in the world, but coming off a loss which will swing their momentum, they could lose a few of these games. If they go 2-2 here, and we win the rest, we will have a better conference and division record. And we will take the division.

Week 16 is huge, the Broncos could be competing with us for a wild card spot. And with Jay Cutler in, we have a good chance of takin that W. And speaking of Denver...

Here are the major wild card competitors:

*Against another AFC wild card competitor (Including minor ones not listed)

#Against Bengals

6. Broncos (7-4)

Dec 3 Seattle

Dec 10 @San Diego

Dec 17 @Arizona

Dec 24 Cincinnati#

Dec 31 San Francisco

As I said before, with Jay Cutler coming in to start for his first time, their season could be in jeapordy, and they have a pretty good chance of missing the playoffs. That game against us is huge, since we are both going for wild card. If we have tied records, whoever wins that game will have the tiebreaker advantage in the playoffs.

9. Jets (6-5)

Dec. 3 @Green Bay

Dec 10 Buffalo*

Dec 17 @Minnesota

Dec 25 @Miami*

Dec 31 Oakland

Pretty easy schedule, Im depending on Miami and Minny, maybe Buffalo to beatem. But its not really mandatory they lose more than 1 game, or even any at all if we can go undefeated the rest of the season.

5. Chiefs (7-4)

Dec 3 @Cleveland

Dec 10 Baltimore

Dec 17 @San Diego

Dec 23 @Oakland

Dec 31 Jacksonville*

Its really hard to rely on Cleveland for a win, but even if they dont lose that game, they got Baltimore, San Diego, and Jax after that. Depending on the circumstances, I may actually want KC to beat Jacksonville though. We still have a shot at the division though, so I also might want them to beat the Ravens. But like i said, it all depends on how everyones record is at that time.

8. Jaguars (6-5)

Dec 3 @Miami*

Dec 10 Indianapolis

Dec 17 @Tennessee

Dec 24 New England

Dec 31 @Kansas City*

Looking at their schedule, they are hardly even a threat anymore. But you cant count them out just yet, their game against Miami on Sunday can basically take them out of the playoff race if they lose, looking at the rest of their schedule. The best situation for the Bengals is if they lose 2 games before week 17, then beat the Chiefs.

People were counting us out of the playoffs not too long ago, but I still have faith in our outstanding offense and improving defense. Lets make a playoff run Cinci!! WHO DEY!!

[jjakq27]

Excellent work. We have merged it into an existing thread.

[HoosierCat]

I took pretty hard look at the WC scenario - we need the Chiefs to lose.

No, we don't. We don't need any other team's help right now. Bengals control their own WC destiny; win out and they are in, regardless of what any other team does.

Yet that's not likely, playing Den and Ind. Certainly things look good now for them to possibly go 10-6, but I'd rather have a scenario that doesn't require going 4-0 against a 10-1 and 7-4 team, a divisional rival, and an admitted chump.

And that still might not get the division. Baltimore winning makes the playoffs more likely, thus, I'm pulling for Balt.

A KC loss would certainly help, my point is simply that it isn't necessary -- if the Bengals do their job. And frankly I like that scenario better than one that involves four or five teams sputtering down the stretch and letting us squeak in. But we'll see. The picture may clear up a bit this weekend.

[bengalsrz]

Thanks, and sorry about puttin it in a seperate thread