4 Weeks To Go

[duus]

OK, I know that every game is critical this time of the year, and that anything can happen on a given Sunday, etc. No doubt about that.

But looking at the contenders for the AFC playoffs, and eliminating games that I think are at least a 90% chance the 'obvious team' will win/lose, I come up with the following records, with deciding games making up the difference for each team, respectively (I'm leaving out the Colts because it almost doesn't matter at this point):

Broncos - 12-3 (1 game outcome 'unknown')

Bengals - 12-3 (1 game outcome 'unknown')

Jaguars - 12-4 (0 game outcomes 'unknown')

Chargers - 10-6 (0 game outcomes 'unknown')

Chiefs - 9-4 (3 game outcomes 'unknown')

Steelers - 10-5 (1 game outcome 'unknown')

The 'unknown' outcome games are as follows:

Week 14 - Chiefs at Cowboys

Week 15 - Broncos at Bills; Chiefs at Giants; Steelers at Vikings

Week 16 - None

Week 17 - Bengals at Chiefs

On the surface, the Broncos at Bills and Steelers at Vikings might be able to be eliminated, but I think both of these places are very difficult on the road, so my 'wishful thinking' puts them in the 'unknown' category. (might be very wishful)

And there are surely other games not mentioned here that I have put into the 90% probable outcome category that folks will want to dispute (i.e. Bears at Steelers in Week 13; Chargers at Colts in Week 15; Chargers at Chiefs in Week 16; etc.).

In any case, that's one fan's thinking as we sit today. So, for me, the Chiefs at Cowboys is the big game in the AFC this week if all you were interested in was 'most critical to playoffs in general'. Week 15 has the biggest matchups that I think will separate everyone. Then, after the Broncos play on the last Saturday of the season (December 31), the Bengals at Chiefs on January 1 will be the final biggest game of the year, probably deciding who goes home (hopefully Steelers) and who plays on (anyone else).

One fans opinion. A bit confusing, but interesting to look at nonetheless.

[bengalindian]

Nice. I'm really hoping for a continuance of Jake Plummer throwing picks and have the Broncos lose one they are not supposed to so the Bengals can slip into the 2 seed.

[buck3y3d]

The Broncos at San Diego is a much more unknown game than the Broncos at Bills. That is the game that really matters.

[Stripes]

The Broncos at San Diego is a much more unknown game than the Broncos at Bills. That is the game that really matters.

I agree, I expect the 2nd seed to be decided in week 17 because of this game and the Bengals @ Chiefs game.

[duus]

The Broncos at San Diego is a much more unknown game than the Broncos at Bills. That is the game that really matters.

Yeah, you may very well be correct about that. Another interesting fact is that the game you point out is at the end of the season. Would be interesting (if not likely) that the Chargers would be in a position that they must win and get help the following day. If that's the case, I could see them winning that game and giving us the loss by the Broncos that we need. Would be even better if the Broncos SOMEHOW get upset in a game like that against the Bills (might be the only possible hope).

Imagine going into the following week where we are 12-3 and the Broncose are 11-4 (loss to Bills ... dreaming!). Further imagine that the Chargers are sitting at 9-6, neeing a win and hoping for either the Steelers or Chiefs to lose. Well, with the homefield, I think the Chargers would pull off the win on Saturday, thus guaranteeing us the bye. We rest our starters, and maybe even lose to the Chiefs. The Chiefs get in at 11-5, and the Steelers are home crying ... even at 11-5.

Ah, life would be good.

So ... I guess I'm hoping for the following records going into the final week ...

Bengals 12-3

Broncos 11-4

Chiefs 10-5

Steelers 10-5 (or worse, of course)

Chargers 9-6

Broncos lose; Chargers win on Saturday

Bengals rest starters; Chiefs win on Sunday

Steelers win or lose on Sunday ... but they're done for the year due to losing tie-breaker with Chiefs

Sweet.

[AMC]

I've had this wierd feeling all season when I first saw the sched, that something would come down to that KC game...

First I thought it was the playoffs or the wild card...now its home field!

Don't overlook CLE, DET and BUF though....Don't want a slip up.....

[cmidy]

OK, I know that every game is critical this time of the year, and that anything can happen on a given Sunday, etc. No doubt about that.

But looking at the contenders for the AFC playoffs, and eliminating games that I think are at least a 90% chance the 'obvious team' will win/lose, I come up with the following records, with deciding games making up the difference for each team, respectively (I'm leaving out the Colts because it almost doesn't matter at this point):

Broncos - 12-3 (1 game outcome 'unknown')

Bengals - 12-3 (1 game outcome 'unknown')

Jaguars - 12-4 (0 game outcomes 'unknown')

Chargers - 10-6 (0 game outcomes 'unknown')

Chiefs - 9-4 (3 game outcomes 'unknown')

Steelers - 10-5 (1 game outcome 'unknown')

The 'unknown' outcome games are as follows:

Week 14 - Chiefs at Cowboys

Week 15 - Broncos at Bills; Chiefs at Giants; Steelers at Vikings

Week 16 - None

Week 17 - Bengals at Chiefs

On the surface, the Broncos at Bills and Steelers at Vikings might be able to be eliminated, but I think both of these places are very difficult on the road, so my 'wishful thinking' puts them in the 'unknown' category. (might be very wishful)

And there are surely other games not mentioned here that I have put into the 90% probable outcome category that folks will want to dispute (i.e. Bears at Steelers in Week 13; Chargers at Colts in Week 15; Chargers at Chiefs in Week 16; etc.).

In any case, that's one fan's thinking as we sit today. So, for me, the Chiefs at Cowboys is the big game in the AFC this week if all you were interested in was 'most critical to playoffs in general'. Week 15 has the biggest matchups that I think will separate everyone. Then, after the Broncos play on the last Saturday of the season (December 31), the Bengals at Chiefs on January 1 will be the final biggest game of the year, probably deciding who goes home (hopefully Steelers) and who plays on (anyone else).

One fans opinion. A bit confusing, but interesting to look at nonetheless.

In regards to the last game of the year where we play KC at KC.

I have a strong feeling this game will mean alot for the Steelers to make it as a wildcard team. I feel that the Steelers will need us to beat KC for them to make the playoffs. If that is the case, I hope we lose on purpose, and put the Steelers out of the playoffs!!! Maybe we should put in our 3rd stringers.

Any thoughts, if this game means nothing to us should we play our best and eliminate the KC Chiefs or should we lose this game on purpose and sing "nah nah nah nah say ay Goodbye" to the Steelers.

This is how I feel the regular season will end.

KC and San Diego each have extreme hard schedules, plus they play each other, while the Steelers have an easier route.

CHARGERS 8-4 MIA (5-7), @IND (12-0), @KC (8-4), DEN (9-3)

= 34-14 (.708)

CHIEFS 8-4 @DAL (7-5), @NYG (8-4), SD (8-4), CIN (9-3)

= 32-16 (.667)

STEELERS 7-5 CHI (9-3), @MIN (7-5), @CLE (4-8), DET (4-8)

= 24-24 (.500)

Colts 16-0 or 15-1

Bengals 12-4

Denver 11-5

Pats 10-6

*************

Jags 12-4

Steelers 11-5

KC 10-6

Chargers 10-6

Unfortunatly, I don't see the Steelers losing anymore regular games. Damn! I do see Denver losing to Buffalo at Buffalo and to San Diego at San Diego. This will put the Bengals at the #2 spot, where they will only lose to KC at KC. This game will mean NOTHING to the bengals.

NFC

Seattle 14-2 or 13-3

Panthers 12-4

Bears 11-5 or 10-6

Giants 11-5 or 10-6

*************************

Bucs 10-6

Atlanta 10-6 or 9-7

Dallas 9-7

Vikings 9-7

Schedule

AFC PLAYOFF SEEDING

Division leaders W-L Div. Conf. Remaining Schedule

1. COLTS — z 12-0 5-0 10-0 @JAX (9-3), SD (8-4), @SEA (10-2), ARZ (4-8)

= 31-17 (.646)

2. BRONCOS 9-3 3-1 6-2 BAL (4-8), @BUF (4-8), OAK (4-8), @SD (8-4)

= 20-28 (.417)

3. BENGALS 9-3 4-1 6-3 CLE (4-8), @DET (4-8), BUF (4-8), @KC (8-4)

= 20-28 (.417)

4. PATRIOTS 7-5 3-0 5-4 @BUF (4-8), TB (8-4), @NYJ (2-10), MIA (5-7)

= 19-29 (.396)

Wildcard Teams W-L Div. Conf. Remaining Schedule

5. JAGUARS 9-3 2-1 7-2 IND (12-0), SF (2-10), @HOU (1-11), TEN (3-9)

= 18-30 (.375)

6. CHARGERS 8-4 3-1 6-2 MIA (5-7), @IND (12-0), @KC (8-4), DEN (9-3)

= 34-14 (.708)

Contenders W-L Div. Conf. Remaining Schedule

7. CHIEFS 8-4 3-2 7-3 @DAL (7-5), @NYG (8-4), SD (8-4), CIN (9-3)

= 32-16 (.667)

8. STEELERS 7-5 3-2 6-5 CHI (9-3), @MIN (7-5), @CLE (4-8), DET (4-8)

= 24-24 (.500)

9. DOLPHINS 5-7 1-3 3-5 @SD (8-4), NYJ (2-10), TEN (3-9), @NE (7-5)

= 20-28 (.417)

NFC

NFC PLAYOFF SEEDING

Division leaders W-L Div. Conf. Remaining Schedule

1. SEAHAWKS — y 10-2 5-0 9-1 SF (2-10), @TEN (3-9), IND (12-0), @GB (2-10)

= 19-29 (.396)

2. BEARS 9-3 4-0 8-1 @PIT (7-5), ATL (7-5), @GB (2-10), @MIN (7-5)

= 23-25 (.479)

3. PANTHERS 9-3 2-1 6-2 TB (8-4), @NO (3-9), DAL (7-5), @ATL (7-5)

= 25-23 (.521)

4. GIANTS 8-4 3-1 7-3 @PHI (5-7), KC (8-4), @WSH (6-6), @OAK (4-8)

= 23-25 (.479)

Wildcard Teams W-L Div. Conf. Remaining Schedule

5. BUCS 8-4 2-1 6-3 @CAR (9-3), @NE (7-5), ATL (7-5), NO (3-9)

= 26-22 (.542)

6. COWBOYS 7-5 3-2 6-3 KC (8-4), @WSH (6-6), @CAR (9-3), STL (5-7)

=28-20 (.583)

Contenders W-L Div. Conf. Remaining Schedule

7. FALCONS 7-5 1-2 4-4 NO (3-9), @CHI (9-3), @TB (8-4), @CAR (9-3)

= 29-19 (.604)

8. VIKINGS 7-5 4-1 6-4 STL (5-7), PIT (7-5), @BAL (4-8), CHI (9-3)

= 25-23 (.521)

9. REDSKINS 6-6 2-1 6-2 @ARZ (4-8), DAL (7-5), NYG (8-4), @PHI (5-7)

= 24-24 (.500)

10. EAGLES 5-7 0-4 2-6 NYG (8-4), @STL (5-7), @ARZ (4-8), WSH (6-6)

= 23-25 (.479)

11. RAMS 5-7 1-4 2-6 @MIN (7-5), PHI (5-7), SF (2-10), @DAL (7-5)

= 21-27 (.438)