5 Games In 15 Days

[duus]

** CORRECTED **

There's always no shortage of folks throwing out opinions as to what game is most important and why.

You have the fan who looks to the next game and always screams that that is the most important. He will say to never overlook the very next game. Hard to argue against.

You have the fan who looks all divisional games and yells that those are easily the most important, year in and year out. Hard to argue against.

You have the fan who looks at any upcoming games against divisional opponents ahead of his team in the standings, and he jumps up and down that those are THE games to worry about. Hard to argue against.

You have the fan who will simply look at records and he no so profoundly points out that those are the games where the team will show its stregth, if it is really there. Hard to argue against.

Each of these fans are correct in at least some small (or even big) way. As I sit here considering these truths, I look at the upcoming games in the AFC for 2005, and I see an important stretch staring us in the face. In fact, I want to offer up that I see this stretch of 5 games in 15 days to be so important that it will provide us a glimpse into the future. Here goes.

Arguably, right now the 3 teams to watch in the AFC are the 8-0 Colts, the 7-2 Bengals, and the 6-2 Steelers. Sure, the Broncos are right there with 2 losses as well, but their remaining schedule is seen as much more difficult than the three teams just mentioned. So stay with me on this.

Starting with the games on November 20th ...

11/20 1:00 p.m Eastern - Steelers at Ravens

11/20 4:15 p.m. Eastern - Colts at Bengals

11/27 1:00 p.m. Eastern - Ravens at Bengals

11/28 9:00 p.m. Eastern - Steelers at Colts

12/4 1:00 p.m. Eastern - Bengals at Steelers

There you have it. The 5 games in 15 days that will show us how these 3 teams will be ordered come the end of the season. For simplicity, let's assume the 2 games listed above against the Ravens end up as victories for the opponent. This is surely not a stretch to imagine, and will make the remaining scenarios easier to illustrate.

That leaves 3 games (Colts at Bengals, Steelers at Colts, and Bengals at Steelers) with the following possible scenarios:

Bengals win 0, Colts win 1, Steelers win 2

Bengals win 0, Colts win 2, Steelers win 1

Bengals win 1, Colts win 0, Steelers win 2

Bengals win 1, Colts win 1, Steelers win 1

Bengals win 1, Colts win 2, Steelers win 0

Bengals win 2, Colts win 0, Steelers win 1

Bengals win 2, Colts win 1, Steelers win 0

In looking at this, my bet is that, come 6:00 p.m. on December 4, you will be able to look back and see which of these scenarios occurred over the prior 15 days, and that will be your picture of how things will end up. Whichever team had won 2 of those games will be the number 1 seed. If a team has 0 wins over that stretch, that team will be the number 5 seed. That's right ... all the way from being a possible number 1 seed on 11/20, down to at best the number 5 seed on 12/4 !!!

In the only scenario where each has 1 win, then things get much more cloudy. This scenario is only possible if the Bengals beat the Colts on 11/20, the Colts beat the Steelers on 11/28, and the Steelers beat the Bengals on 12/4. I think we all know that if that scenario plays out, then the Bengals will still have a very hard time winning the division with 2 losses against the Steelers. So, with that scenario, the Steelers will end up with the 2 seed, and the Bengals with the 5.

So ... putting this together with the games to be played, here is my prediction as to the seeding come January:

Bengals #1, Colts #2, Steelers #5 --> Bengals win 2 (vs. Colts, at Steelers), Colts win 0, Steelers win 1 (at Colts)

Bengals #1, Colts #2, Steelers #5 --> Bengals win 2 (vs. Colts, at Steelers), Colts win 1 (vs. Steelers), Steelers win 0

Colts #1, Steelers #2, Bengals #5 --> Bengals win 0, Colts win 2 (at Bengals, vs. Steelers), Steelers win 1 (vs. Bengals)

Colts #1, Steelers #2, Bengals #5 --> Bengals win 1 (vs. Colts), Colts win 1 (vs. Steelers), Steelers win 1 (vs. Bengals)

Colts #1, Bengals #2, Steelers #5 --> Bengals win 1 (at Steelers), Colts win 2 (at Benglas, vs. Steelers), Steelers win 0

Steelers #1, Colts #2, Bengals #5 --> Bengals win 0, Colts win 1 (at Bengals), Steelers win 2 (at Colts, vs. Bengals)

Steelers #1, Colts #2, Bengals #5 --> Bengals win 1 (vs. Colts), Colts win 0, Steelers win 2 (at Colts, vs. Bengals)

Look at that again. I see 3 ways the Colts get the top seed, 2 ways the Bengals get the top seed, and 2 ways the Steelers get the top seed. That said, the Colts have 4 out of 7 ways to get the number 2 seed. You will note, however, that for the Bengals to get the number 1 seed, they will have to win their next 3 games. Anything short of that, and they fall down. In fact, I predict the only way they get the number 2 seed is to beat the Colts on 11/20, and have the Steelers win the division (and get the number 1 seed). Better said, there is no way I see the Bengals getting better than a 5 seed (and therefor not getting a bye) if they do not beat the Steelers on 12/4.

So ... if you are still with me, and haven't fallen asleep or thrown your breakfast at the computer screen, cussing me for a ridiculous write-up, then you will see that the 12/4 game against the Steelers is THE MOST IMPORTANT GAME of the year! Yes, it is more important than the game against the Colts on 11/20. Oh, we need that win ever so badly. It's the difference between a great year (i.e. AFC Championship Game and maybe Super Bowl), and a possible 1 and out playoff picture.

Go Bengals!

[Stripes]

Excellent post Duus.

Everything you've mentioned seems logical, except for one thing. I may be wrong here, but if the Steelers win the division, and the Bengals get the wildcard, then highest they can be seeded is fifth. All division winners take the first four seeds regardless of their regular season records.

[duus]

Duh, you are absolutely correct. I got a bit ahead of myself with those numbers. I'll replace 3 with 5 ... thanks for the correction.

Also, clear from this is simply that whichever team among these 3 that wins both their games against the other will get the top seed. If no team win both, then by bet is the Bengals fall all the way to 5!

[Stripes]

Also, clear from this is simply that whichever team among these 3 that wins both their games against the other will get the top seed. If no team win both, then by bet is the Bengals fall all the way to 5!

What's frustrating is that the Patriots will likely win their division, but with a record like 9-7 or 8-8 even. Therefore, they would get lowest seed among division winners at 4th. If the Bengals ended up with the wildcard, almost certainly the 5th seed, then they'd be forced to play their first playoff game in fifteen years at Foxboro.

[redsbengalsbucks]

I thought that if a wild card team has a better record than a division winner they get to host the playoff game.

[AGrizzlyBaer]

I thought that if a wild card team has a better record than a division winner they get to host the playoff game.

nope sadly...

[redsbengalsbucks]

Damn, it has been so long since the playoffs were a possibility that I have not paid any attetion to the rules governing home feild and tie-breakers since the early 90's.

[AMC]

What are the odds that the Bengals go 11-5 or 10-6 and DON'T get the division or a wild card???

This whole AFC wild card race scares the hell out of me!!!!!!!!!

We just need to step it up and win the division!

[NYBengalfan]

Excellent post duus, is there any playoff talk in s**tsburgh, other than Pittsburgh Sports Report(Steelers Edition, I hate those guys!)? You really hit home on how important the game vs the Steelers is. But also, we need to win this game against the Colts to keep pace with the Steelers, b/c the Stillers will unfortunately have the lead in the Division after this week playing the clowns. This is so friggin huge if we are tied going into Heinz Field. ..........

" The real teams show who's boss after Thanksgiving"

- Bill Belichick

What are the odds that the Bengals go 11-5 or 10-6 and DON'T get the division or a wild card???

This whole AFC wild card race scares the hell out of me!!!!!!!!!

We just need to step it up and win the division!

Odds are if we go 10-6 then we're in trouble, then we may not get a Wild Card spot.

11-5 then we should, b/c I cant see SD or KC going 11-5 with their schedules, JAX will with their schedule.

12-4, definitely a Wild Card but division is still in question. If we beat PIT then we'll win the Division at 12-4.

13-3 is what we'll have to be to win the division!!!!!!!!!!!

[CBin2k7]

San Diego at 5-4 still has games left with KC, DEN, OAK, BUF, WASH and INDY

Kansas City at 5-3 has games with CIN, DEN, SD, NYG, NE, and BUF

Those are some tough games for those teams, I believe 10-6 makes the playoffs.

[duus]

Excellent post duus, is there any playoff talk in s**tsburgh, other than Pittsburgh Sports Report(Steelers Edition, I hate those guys!)?

Plenty of talk here locally. Some are whispering that they wonder if the defense might have some holes as they tend to keep allowing the opponent to convert 3rd downs. Nonetheless, they are openly confident that, given the remaining schedule, they will end up with at worst the number 2 seed overall. Honestly, as much as it pains me, the only thing between them and at least the number 2 seed is that 12/4 game. If the Bengals don't win that one, they have every reason to be confident ... because it will happen. Ugh. I hate these guys too!

In any case, I am looking forward to coming into town for the Colts game! I purchased a set of 4 tickets a few months back, and cannot wait for the game! I've never been to PBS, so I'm hoping to hook up with a good tail gate party ... and then watch our team stick one to the Colts!

Go Bengals!

[derekshank]

If the Colts lose both to the Bengals, and the Steelers... they will still be 9-2, and well on their way to winning their division, with a better record than NE, or Den. The Colts most likely have a first round bye even if they do lose both of those games... which I see as a very real possibility.

P.S. Schlereth just picked the Bengals to beat Indy on the radio show Sports Bash. That's the first person I've heard mention that as a possibility.

[duus]

If the Colts lose both to the Bengals, and the Steelers... they will still be 9-2, and well on their way to winning their division, with a better record than NE, or Den. The Colts most likely have a first round bye even if they do lose both of those games... which I see as a very real possibility.

P.S. Schlereth just picked the Bengals to beat Indy on the radio show Sports Bash. That's the first person I've heard mention that as a possibility.

Yep, I absolutely agree with you about Indy still getting a bye even if they lose to both the Bengals and Steelers. That's what I've shown in the first and last scenarios (Cotls with 0 wins in each, and still getting the #2 seed).

[jjakq27]

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/art...140365/1066/SPT

Mark Curnutte has an excellent article in the Enquirer this morning about the Bengals and their playoff possibilities.

Personally I think the Jacksonville game may come back to haunt us. We are 7-2 and they are 6-3 but they only play one team with a winning record from here on and that is Indy. Assuming we don't win the division and if we end up tied with Jax, they would beat us since they won the head-to-head game.

Hopefully we can beat the Steelers in a few weeks and that would make all the difference. A home playoff game would be awsome compared to going to Foxboro or Indy or Denver for a road game in January. Either way I will take a playoff berth no matter the circumstances.

[jjakq27]

Damn, it has been so long since the playoffs were a possibility that I have not paid any attetion to the rules governing home feild and tie-breakers since the early 90's.

Here are the rules for determining placement and tiebreakers for the playoffs.

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakers

[NYBengalfan]

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/art...140365/1066/SPT

Mark Curnutte has an excellent article in the Enquirer this morning about the Bengals and their playoff possibilities.

Personally I think the Jacksonville game may come back to haunt us. We are 7-2 and they are 6-3 but they only play one team with a winning record from here on and that is Indy. Assuming we don't win the division and if we end up tied with Jax, they would beat us since they won the head-to-head game.

Hopefully we can beat the Steelers in a few weeks and that would make all the difference. A home playoff game would be awsome compared to going to Foxboro or Indy or Denver for a road game in January. Either way I will take a playoff berth no matter the circumstances.

Id be happy no matter how they get in. But getting in wont cut it for me, I want them to win it all right here right now. The best way for that would be to win the division. Like I said, Id be happy that they get in no matter what, but Id be dissapointed if they dont get the division.

[Stripes]

I've been thinking about which teams we'd be facing in the playoffs depending on our seeding. The way I see it, it would go like this... (this is all assuming the six current teams in playoff position stay the same)

If we get the #1 seed somehow, then we'd get the first round bye, and host the lowest seed remaining from both the wildcard games, either Jacksonville (#6), Pittsburgh (#5) or New England (#4).

With the #2 seed, we'd still get the first round bye, and host the highest seed remaining from the wildcard games, either Pittsburgh (#5), New England (#4), or Denver (#3). If Jacksonville (#6) were to win their wildcard game, then they would face the Colts (#1) rather than the Bengals.

With the #3 seed, we would have to play in one of the wildcard games. We would host Jacksonville (#6).

With the #4 seed (which is a near impossiblity), we'd host Pittsburgh (#5).

With the #5 seed (probably the most likely scenario), we'd be the wildcard playing on the road in New England (#4).

With the #6 seed (only will happen in Jacksonville goes on a run), we'd be the wildcard playing on the road in Denver (#3).

Hopefully that all made sense and is correct, because typing it was confusing!

[jjakq27]

I've been thinking about which teams we'd be facing in the playoffs depending on our seeding. The way I see it, it would go like this... (this is all assuming the six current teams in playoff position stay the same)

If we get the #1 seed somehow, then we'd get the first round bye, and host the lowest seed remaining from both the wildcard games, either Jacksonville (#6), Pittsburgh (#5) or New England (#4).

With the #2 seed, we'd still get the first round bye, and host the highest seed remaining from the wildcard games, either Pittsburgh (#5), New England (#4), or Denver (#3). If Jacksonville (#6) were to win their wildcard game, then they would face the Colts (#1) rather than the Bengals.

With the #3 seed, we would have to play in one of the wildcard games. We would host Jacksonville (#6).

With the #4 seed (which is a near impossiblity), we'd host Pittsburgh (#5).

With the #5 seed (probably the most likely scenario), we'd be the wildcard playing on the road in New England (#4).

With the #6 seed (only will happen in Jacksonville goes on a run), we'd be the wildcard playing on the road in Denver (#3).

Hopefully that all made sense and is correct, because typing it was confusing!

I'd love to have a game here but it would be sweet to go to Foxboro and have Palmer finish what he started last December up there.

[Stripes]

I'd love to have a game here but it would be sweet to go to Foxboro and have Palmer finish what he started last December up there.

No doubt. Having to play our first playoff game in fifteen years in the champ's house certainly has a scary feel to it, but I'd like our chances. Palmer would toast that defense.

[duus]

Time to check in and see where things are with only the final game of the '5 games in 15 days' left (Bengals at Steelers):

The prediction was as follows:

Bengals #1, Colts #2, Steelers #5 --> Bengals win 2 (vs. Colts, at Steelers), Colts win 0, Steelers win 1 (at Colts)

Bengals #1, Colts #2, Steelers #5 --> Bengals win 2 (vs. Colts, at Steelers), Colts win 1 (vs. Steelers), Steelers win 0

Colts #1, Steelers #2, Bengals #5 --> Bengals win 0, Colts win 2 (at Bengals, vs. Steelers), Steelers win 1 (vs. Bengals)

Colts #1, Steelers #2, Bengals #5 --> Bengals win 1 (vs. Colts), Colts win 1 (vs. Steelers), Steelers win 1 (vs. Bengals)

Colts #1, Bengals #2, Steelers #5 --> Bengals win 1 (at Steelers), Colts win 2 (at Bengals, vs. Steelers), Steelers win 0

Steelers #1, Colts #2, Bengals #5 --> Bengals win 0, Colts win 1 (at Bengals), Steelers win 2 (at Colts, vs. Bengals)

Steelers #1, Colts #2, Bengals #5 --> Bengals win 1 (vs. Colts), Colts win 0, Steelers win 2 (at Colts, vs. Bengals)

Well, 2 things happened that I surely didn't expect. First I didn't expect the Broncos to win difficult games over the last 2 weeks. They did and for that they will get the #2 seed (which means my prediction for either Bengals or Steelers goes from #2 to #3). Second, and the most surprising, was the Steelers losing to the Ravens. Too funny.

In the end, however, the Colts won the 2 games that I talked about, so only the 2 scenarios played out:

Colts #1, Steelers #2, Bengals #5 --> Bengals win 0, Colts win 2 (at Bengals, vs. Steelers), Steelers win 1 (vs. Bengals)

Colts #1, Bengals #2, Steelers #5 --> Bengals win 1 (at Steelers), Colts win 2 (at Bengals, vs. Steelers), Steelers win 0

Adjusting for the #3 seed thing, it will go as follows, being determined by tomorrow's winner:

Colts #1, Denver #2, Steelers #3, Patriots #4, Bengals #5 --> Bengals win 0, Colts win 2 (at Bengals, vs. Steelers), Steelers win 1 (vs. Bengals)

Colts #1, Denver #2, Bengals #3, Patriots #4, Steelers #6 --> Bengals win 1 (at Steelers), Colts win 2 (at Benglals, vs. Steelers), Steelers win 0

That's my guess. After tomorrow's game, it will only rest on who jumps in for the final spot. Chargers, Jags, or Chiefs. Not sure who, but probably not the Chiefs. Interestingly, if it's the Jags, that might push the Bengals to the #6 seed should they lose tomorrow. If it's the Chargers, that might push the Steelers to the #6 seed should they lose tomorrow.

Cool stuff. Hoping for a victory for our Bengals tomorrow and then we need not worry about positioning ... it will be #3 at worst, with an outside shot of the Broncos imploding.

[bengalindian]

Man, I'm pumped. Not only could the Bengals take control of the division and (pretty much) ensure a playoff berth, but would clinch their first winning season in FOREVER. I think that's the most exciting thing about tomorrow's game.