Another heartening prediction

[Ox]

CBS Sportsline Article

Check out section #8

1. J.J. Arrington will rush for 1,400 yards in his rookie season. Cardinals head coach Dennis Green envisions Arrington as a 1,200-1,300-yards back, which should be a viable prediction when you consider the success of his backs in the past. Former featured backs averaged 1,004 yards under Green in Minnesota (1992-2000), and that includes two seasons when Robert Smith missed a combined 15 starts and was limited to fewer than 700 yards. When Smith started 13-plus games, he averaged 1,247 yards and five touchdowns.

Arrington, who was a landslide winner in last week's poll question, went in the first five rounds in four recent experts drafts and has the skills to emerge into a nice No. 2 back or flex option in leagues with 12-plus teams.

2. Jamal Lewis will win the NFL's rushing title. Lewis was considered a disappointment last season with 1,006 yards and seven touchdowns, and his four-month offseason prison sentence might cause owners to question his value. But the veteran took the time behind bars to get into great shape -- teammate Alan Ricard said Lewis is "ripped up" -- and he appears set to re-emerge as a member of the NFL's elite.

Lewis should also have the support of a more reliable pass attack with the addition of wide receiver Derrick Mason and return of tight end Todd Heap, which will limit the amount of attention defenses can commit to the run. When the season ends, look for Lewis to surpass the 1,600-yard mark and record double-digit touchdowns.

3. Chad Pennington will have his best season as a pro. Pennington continues to recover from rotator cuff surgery, but the Jets expect him to return in time for the start of the regular season. While injuries are a concern -- Pennington has missed 10 starts in the past two seasons -- the additions of offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger and wide receiver Laveranues Coles are real positives.

Heimerdinger will put Pennington in the shotgun in certain sets and allow him to succeed in the same manner as Steve McNair, who emerged into a valuable option for owners in recent seasons under Heimerdinger. Pennington will be a great middle-round value in most drafts and should become a solid starter sooner than later.

4. Kyle Orton will overtake Rex Grossman as the Bears' No. 1 quarterback. Bears offensive coordinator Ron Turner loves Orton's skills, and there's been talk the quarterback will battle Chad Hutchinson in camp for the second spot on the depth chart. That should be the first step for Orton, who will be given a chance to start when Rex Grossman fails to produce.

Grossman, who is back to 100 percent from an injured knee, is one of several former Florida quarterbacks who have flopped like Vlade Divac at the pro level. The list of failures include Danny Wuerffel, Shane Matthews, Doug Johnson and Jesse Palmer, who is better known for his role on The Bachelor than for his prowess on the football field. It won't be immediate, but owners should look for Orton to take over the offense soon after midseason.

5. Tatum Bell will thrive in Denver. This prediction might not seem so "bold" when you consider the level of production Broncos backs have found under head coach Mike Shanahan. Since 1995, featured backs have averaged 1,409 yards and 11 rushing touchdowns in his offense. Furthermore, there has been just one back (Terrell Davis) who led the team in rushing but failed to rush for 1,000 yards in that season.

There are questions about Bell's proneness to injuries, but owners can feel confident on his value based on Shanahan's track record. Bell will be selected in the first three rounds in most drafts and should emerge into a solid No. 2 back, but owners who land him are advised to also select Clarett, who appears to be the favorite to serve as Bell's immediate reserve.

6. Brandon Lloyd will be the next in a line of third-year wide receivers to have a breakout season. It's become the norm for at least one third-year wide receiver to develop into a stud, and Lloyd will be that athlete in 2005. He showed flashes of potential last season and finished with six touchdowns, which was more than Eric Moulds (5), Santana Moss (5) and Hines Ward (4). 49ers head coach Mike Nolan is confident that Lloyd can handle the role of a No. 1 receiver, and his rapport with quarterback Alex Smith should develop at a rampant pace.

7. Tiki Barber will be inconsistent and fail to meet expectations. Barber has alternated excellent seasons with mediocre ones since 2000, and the odd seasons are the ones he falters in. He rushed for 1,000-plus yards for the first time in his pro career and recorded nine total touchdowns in 2000, but was limited to nine starts due to injuries in 2001 and recorded a mere 865 rushing yards and four total touchdowns.

His statistics increased in 2002 with 1,984 all-purpose yards and a career-best 11 scores, but he fell again the next season (1,216 rushing yards, two touchdowns). He was an absolute stud in 2004 with 2,096 all-purpose yards and 15 touchdowns, but now owners must question whether this trend will continue, especially with rookie Brandon Jacobs in the mix.

Jacobs has little chance to unseat Barber on the depth chart, but he has impressed head coach Tom Coughlin and could steal valuable goal-line carries from his veteran teammate. Barber will be selected in the first three rounds in most drafts, but owners will be disappointed with their investment.

8. Carson Palmer will throw 25-30 touchdown passes. Palmer's statistics in his final four starts of last season are an indication of future success in Cincinnati. The former Heisman winner threw for a combined 1,000 yards with 11 touchdowns in that timeframe and looked more like an experienced veteran than a quarterback with nine previous career starts.

The Bengals have a ton of talent on offense with Rudi Johnson in the backfield and wide receivers Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Peter Warrick and Kelley Washington in the pass attack, so Palmer should have great support from the run and be allowed to air it out the entire season. I consider him the league's No. 1 sleeper and expect him to emerge into a solid starter within the first five weeks of the regular season.

9. LaMont Jordan will rush for 1,250 yards and 10 touchdowns. Aside from his own athletic abilities, the reason to believe Jordan will succeed in silver and black is the presence of head coach Norv Turner. The offensive guru has coached some solid backs in his career, a list that includes Emmitt Smith, Terry Allen, Stephen Davis and Ricky Williams.

Smith scored 42 total touchdowns and won the rushing title in each of Turner's three seasons in Dallas, Allen rushed for a combined 2,662 yards and 31 touchdowns from 1995-96 under Turner in Washington, and Davis averaged 1,385 yards and eight touchdowns from 1999-2001.

Turner later went to Miami and allowed Williams the chance to set a Dolphins' single-season record with 1,853 yards and 16 touchdowns in his first season in South Beach.

Jordan is a perfect fit for Turner's offense -- he's big, physical and durable -- so expect him to become a solid No. 2 back in what should be a solid Raiders offense.

10. Shelton will become the No. 1 running back in Carolina. The Panthers didn't use a second-round selection in the draft on Shelton to have him sit on the bench, and the proneness to injuries that Davis and DeShaun Foster have endured in recent seasons could mean a prominent role for the rookie.

A bruiser who has drawn comparisons to Jerome Bettis, Shelton is a perfect fit for head coach John Fox's offense. It might not happen in the first week of the regular season, but owners should expect Shelton to beco{me the team's No. 1 back at some point in his rookie campaign.

[derekshank]

Man... for every piece of good news, there is bad news. Sure section #8 is nice, but #2 talks about Jamal Lewis winning the rushing title. Regardless... this is all fantasy projections, which are fun from a statistical point of view, but they don't take wins into account, which is all we really care about.

I hope those 25-30 TD passes aren't indicative of us always being behind on the scoreboard because of a porous defense that makes us continually put the ball in the air.