Chris' New Draft Is Out

[Kirkendall]

Check out our site's draft guru... http://www.bengalszone.com/article.php?sid=261

[bengalboomer7]

I like- However, Thomas Davis didn't go to USC I feel bad for pointing it out cause I nitpicked him on his last one. Sorry Chris Look on the bright side, though. Matt Roth only gets one paycheck in this mock!! Good mock though Chris. I like how you put a trade down in there when it is almost certain to happen if someone wants it!!

[bengalsfan33]

2 Georgia boys in the first two rounds...I like.

[BengalPappaw]

I agree -- I believe any draft that has two of the top Georgia players (Pollack, Davis and Thurman) is a GOOD draft.

I like the quality of the players we get and the coverage of our needs.

GOOD job Chris!!!

I really like getting Thurman AND Spencer in the second round.

We now have less than four weeks to see what really happens -- but the one thing about "mock" drafts is that they give us HOPE that we can fix our problems in one draft.

I hope we can get at least two of these top three from Chris mock draft.

[HoTbOy]

Mock is good,getting 2 picks in the 2nd again is definately good. Denver was a dance partner last year who says they won't dance this year. Where if any,do you see them grabbing another WR since Warrick is not ready yet..

[HairOnFire]

Look on the bright side, though. Matt Roth only gets one paycheck in this mock!!

I have to wonder whose shoes Matt Roth peed on...because something caused him to fall from the 30th pick in the 1st round in V.3 to a mid 3rd round pick in V.4.

For the record, I like everything about Roth. Everything he does is incredibly violent and all-out, including the routine task of running 40 yard dashes. Those who watched the combine coverage will know what I mean. Plus, he's very instinctive, a proven playmaker, and he has more upside than most give him credit for.

Draft day may prove me wrong yet again, but I think I'd take Roth over both 2nd rounders selected, Thurman and Spencer.

That said, a very fun mock to read.

[bengalboomer7]

It was a joke, in his last draft he had Roth going in both the first and the second to two different teams. One thing I noticed is Chris has a lot more defensive players being picked in the first thatn most other mocks have. I want Merriman, but he's right, his stock is rising so fast their is no cieling to hit right now. I wouldn't be suprised if he's off the board within an hour

[HairOnFire]

It was a joke, in his last draft he had Roth going in both the first and the second to two different teams.

I assumed that. However, it still doesn't explain why Roth would fall to the 3rd in the update....especially after Roth ran a better than expected 4.6 40 at the combine.

Then again, maybe Chris nailed it. Who knows, right? In fact, the only thing I'm dead certain of is that every one of the value lists on my desk is going to be proven dead wrong on draft day.

[bengalboomer7]

Wow, I didn't notice that

[schweinhart]

Thomas Davis, Chris Spencer, and Jonathan Babineaux....Plus Odell Thurman.

:player:

I wanna see it happen

[schweinhart]

And who would the Bengals draft w/ the rest of their picks?

There's been visit interest w/ Nick Speegle, Dan Orlovsky, Khari Long, Brandon Jacobs....Any of them in the guru picture?

[bnglsfan26]

Check out our site's draft guru... http://www.bengalszone.com/article.php?sid=261

you need to get a real draft expert. That mock is loaded with cupcake picks and bad analysis.

Not to mention you have Matt Roth, Jason Campbell, Bryant McFadden, and Eric Green dropping to the third round while you have Odell Thurman, while you have guys like Attiyah Ellison, Crophonso Thorpe, Kyle Orton and Chris Henry going in the 2nd round.

Outside of the first round, where he likely just copied an ESPN mock and shifted around a couple picks, it looks like he just pulled up a draft list and started picking random players.

And what the hell kind of mock draft has the only team of value on the site trading its picks?

[bengalboomer7]

It's one guys opinion. If you want to critisize someone make your own draft, post it, and will dissect it for you. I didn't do the draft, but I do help with the site and last time I checked I wansn't getting a paycheck for it. SO, open up a topic and post your own draft.

[HairOnFire]

you need to get a real draft expert.

I always assumed that real draft experts were sorta like unicorns, elves, and shut-down corners. You know, popular creatures that don't really exist.

[jjakq27]

you need to get a real draft expert.

I always assumed that real draft experts were sorta like unicorns, elves, and shut-down corners. You know, popular creatures that don't really exist.

you left out run-stuffing D-tackles.....

[BengalszoneBilly]

you need to get a real draft expert. That mock is loaded with cupcake picks and bad analysis.

This guy's a hoot! The vast majority of mocks on the internet turn out to be nothing but "bad analysis"! Why you're so upset with one persons mock lends me to believe you're taking this just a wee bit too serious.

All a mock is, is one particular persons speculations/guesses/hypothetical situations on which team might choose who, at which pick in the draft order it may be, and where the possibilities lie for teams to trade up/down/between themselves to get the players percieved to be wanted/needed by particular team. In another words...pure freakin' VOODOO!

None should be considered even remotely accurate, not even enough for a friendly wager. If they were, 'Vegas would already have a line on the draft day picks sitting in their sports books, but they don't. That alone tell you all you need to know!

[jjakq27]

Hobson just posted an article on mock drafts...

http://bengals.com/press/news.asp?iCurPage=0&news_id=2816

Who's Who tough draft question

3/30/2005 - 2:35 p.m.

BY GEOFF HOBSON

This is the most free-wheeling, open-ended draft since Flounder pledged Animal House. With 25 days left, Bengaldom can get drunk simply on the stream of potential picks that could surface in the first round of the NFL Draft at No. 17.

USC defensive lineman Shaun Cody. Georgia safety Thomas Davis. Virginia tight end Heath Miller. LSU defensive end Marcus Spears. Oklahoma wide receiver Mark Clayton. Auburn cornerback Carlos Rogers.

In 14 mock drafts sprinkled throughout the Internet, seven different players are projected to go to the Bengals with Florida State defensive tackle Travis Johnson the leader in the clubhouse with seven predictions to Cincinnati.

The problem is, there are a slew of guys like Johnson that “some teams have going between 10 and 15 and other teams have going in the second round,” says senior analyst Rob Rang of NFL Draft Scout (NFLDraftScout.com). Take Wisconsin defensive end Erasmus James, projected anywhere from the top five to the Bengals’ slot to No. 25 to Denver. Same thing with the what-is-he conundrum of Maryland defensive end Shawne Merriman.

“From 10 on down you've got about 20 names anywhere,” says Jerry Jones of The Drugstore List (drugstorelist.com). “The strength of this draft is in rounds two, three and four.”

Speculation grows

Who knows how the Bengals or anybody else will grade those players in that non-consensus first round? As Rang says, “I’m not too sure if Travis Johnson is (Bengals head coach) Marvin Lewis’s kind of player since some think he’s arrogant and has a problem with consistency.”

So maybe we should be looking at names like Mississippi center Chris Spencer, Michigan center David Baas, Georgia inside linebacker Odell Thurman, Arkansas tight end Matt Jones, and Oklahoma safety Brodney Pool for possible second- or third-round choices.

Rang says the strength of the draft lies in - give or take a few spots - from picks 20-45 and that puts the Bengals in good shape at No. 17 and No. 48.

“At some positions, the player you get (in the second round) is as good or maybe better than what is there after the fifth pick,” says a draft insider.

Gil Brandt of NFL.com has reported that Spencer, believed to be the top center prospect, has a pre-draft visit lined up with the Bengals, but it doesn’t look like that’s for the pick at 17.

“He’s a fine player, but that would be outrageous at that point in the draft," Jones says.

Spencer, like Travis Johnson, is a one-year performer in college and that worries people. You also might be able to put the draft’s best tight end prospect in that category since some believe Virginia’s Miller had a better junior year than senior year because of injuries.

Miller, reportedly suffering a sports hernia, apparently can’t work out before the draft. How that affects a Bengals club that has been grappling with running back Chris Perry’s two hernias remains to be seen. Jones doesn’t think he should slide because of it, but he admits it might. He says there is no question about Miller’s hands and that the Bengals need to upgrade the position.

“People say they’re not sure he can block, but he has the talent to do it and there’s no question that he can be a fine H-back,” says Jones, who admits Miller isn’t the downfield threat of a Todd Heap or Kellen Winslow but compares his solid catching and route running skills to former Titan and league elite Frank Wycheck.

Plus, the Bengals have an excellent working relationship with one of Miller’s coaches, their former scout and coach John Garrett. Pro Football Weekly puts Miller in Cincinnati with the tempting caveat of “Bengals could trade down and still get the draft’s top tight end.”

Scouting Davis fine player, that would be outrageous at that point in the draft,” Jones says.

Spencer, like Travis Johnson, is a one-year performer in college and that worries people. You also might be able to put the draft’s best tight end prospect in that category since some believe Virginia’s Miller had a better junior year than senior year because of injuries.

Miller, reportedly suffering a sports hernia, apparently can’t work out before the draft. How that affects a Bengals club that has been grappling with running back Chris Perry’s two hernias remains to be seen. Jones doesn’t think he should slide because of it, but he admits it might. He says there is no question about Miller’s hands and that the Bengals need to upgrade the position.

“People say they’re not sure he can block, but he has the talent to do it and there’s no question that he can be a fine H-back,” says Jones, who admits Miller isn’t the downfield threat of a Todd Heap or Kellen Winslow but compares his solid catching and route running skills to former Titan and league elite Frank Wycheck.

Plus, the Bengals have an excellent working relationship with one of Miller’s coaches, their former scout and coach John Garrett. Pro Football Weekly puts Miller in Cincinnati with the tempting caveat of “Bengals could trade down and still get the draft’s top tight end.”

Scouting Davis

Davis, the 220-pound safety from Georgia, has been knocked for his lack of speed, but analysts like Rang think he can cover well enough for a guy who would be known more as an in-the-box safety.

“Davis is about the only one of those guys in this draft. Most of the safeties are center-field types,” Rang says.

The Bengals would clearly consider Davis at their spot if he’s there, and he might be. ESPN’s Scout Inc. has Davis ticketed to the Packers at No. 25 because he “has a chance to develop into an athletic OLB in the NFL or an in-the-box SS type. Either way, Davis would provide an upgrade for the Packers defense.”

The Bengals probably think Davis is mobile enough with his 4.6 speed in the 40-yard dash at last month’s NFL scouting combine, and they’re not so much looking for size at that spot as they are tackling ability. And now that they have a safety with cornerback skills in Madieu Williams, they can opt for an in-the-box guy.

And that is how you have to view this draft: In context of what is already on Lewis’s depth chart. Defensive ends like Merriman, James, Spears and Georgia’s David Pollack are seen as first-rounders right in the Bengals’ bread basket, but they already have solid veteran ends. Spears is a tough nut to figure because according to Jones, “you’re not sure if he’s also big enough to go inside.”

Analysts like Jones and Rang think Travis Johnson or USC end/tackle Shaun Cody would be a good fit in Cincinnati. But are they any better at this stage than young tackles like Matthias Askew (who would be rated right with these guys if he stayed last year at Michigan State) and Langston Moore, two guys who have at least had a year in the Bengals system?

“I’m not a big fan of Travis Johnson, but I think Cody (is he big enough at 293 pounds?) would be a great pickup because you can play him in a 3-4 and a 4-3 and I’ve seen where (the Bengals are going to be using a little bit of the 3-4),” Jones says. “But after those two (tackles), there is a different world out there.”

Best player in the draft?

Jones says that the 6-2, 265-pound Pollack is the best player in this draft (“His 40 times rival those of defensive backs”), but some teams may not even be interested in him in the first round because he’s a tweener, in between an end and an outside linebacker.

“Pollack might lack ideal size and top-end speed, but he has the quickness, power, and playmaking instincts to immediately contribute in the NFL,” according to Scouts Inc. “Furthermore, his best fit might be as a 3-4 rush linebacker.”

That just might be too many ifs at No. 17. With Lewis insisting the club is going to draft the highest-graded player on the board (a la Carson Palmer in 2003 and Perry in 2004) instead of a need, Rang raises the possibility of the Bengals drafting a cornerback. Miami of Florida’s Antrel Rolle (at 6-1, 200 pounds some think he can play safety) figures to be gone, but Rang says to keep an eye on Auburn’s Rogers. Even ahead of PacMan Jones of West Virginia.

”He’s got everything that those other guys have,” Rang says of Rogers, “except a name. This a pretty deep draft for corners all the way through. Corners and wide receivers.”

And don’t rule out receivers just because T.J. Houshmandzadeh gets more than $5 million this season in the first year of his four-year deal. Remember last year with Perry.

If a guy like Oklahoma’s Clayton has the best grade on the board, here we go. There’s also a school of thought that says with Palmer emerging so quickly and Cincinnati's offense so dangerous, why not keep feeding him weapons?

Yes, Clayton isn’t very big at 5-10, 193 pounds, but he can speed it downfield and run after the catch.

This looks to be the ideal draft to trade down in the first round and get an extra pick in the rich region of the third or fourth round. The Bengals would no doubt love to do what they did last year when they traded down twice from No. 17 to pick No. 26.

Good luck this year. Join the club.

“Is there going to be a guy at No. 17 that somebody has their sights set on and absolutely has to have?” Jones asks. “That’s going to be tough because if you wait, you could get him or somebody similar. The only guy with that kind of value I can really think of is (Auburn running back) Cadillac Williams. But of all the teams picking behind the Bengals, nobody has running backs as a top three need.”

Second round success

The second round has been a gold mine for the Bengals as of late. Pro Bowl receiver Chad Johnson in 2001, left guard Eric Steinbach in 2003, Williams and cornerback Keiwan Ratliff last year. And with a guy like Georgia’s Thurman and the Bengals having a question at middle linebacker, it could be again.

The 6-1, 233-pound Thurman’s intense style has been compared to that of former Bengals first-rounder Takeo Spikes. But who knows if he’ll be there? Scouts Inc. has him going to New England with the last pick in the first round.

Since the Bengals, Vikings, Saints and Rams all finished 8-8, those teams rotate spots during the entire draft. In the first round, the Bengals (No. 17) are picking ahead of the two playoff teams (Vikings at No. 18 and No. 19 St. Louis) and behind the Saints (No. 16). Then, in the second round, the Bengals go first at No. 48, followed by the Vikings at No. 49, the Rams at No. 50 and the Packers at No. 51 because they have the Saints’ pick. The Bengals go to the bottom of the group in the third round at No. 83.

[chrishcovga]

As with any Person with the ability to predict the world of Tomorrow, I'd pick Lottery numbers, not mock drafts.

* This actual Mock was started over a month ago, but I had to take time off to deal with my mother's passing. Recent events of the last 24 hours suggest that it be updated very soon, which of course will affect Cincinnati's draft picks. But I'll take this time to answer your questions that I've read so far....

I. - To answer why Cincinnati is the only team with a trade is simple - I'm a Bengals fan! But to put it quite simply, Predicting the first half of the draft i.e. picks 1-16 with trades is something that I save for the last mock, as per last years' last mock before the '04 draft.

II. - Matt Roth to me is the most likely victim of the " too many similiar " players situation in this year's draft. Justin Tuck,David Pollack,Shawne Merriman,Matt Roth,Jonathan Babineaux and the list goes on and on, Come Round 2, most of these guys are going to be gone with one or two falling to round 3, just like last year's run on Defensive tackles. No one, not even myself saw Darnell Dockett, Randy Starks, and others fall the way they did. The shocking thing about it to me was, that Cincinnati wasn't one of the teams that didn't take advantage of it. But out of all the players mentioned before, Roth seems to me the one lacking in short area quickness and change of direction skills. He has good straight away quickness, But watching him play and seeing him at the Senior Bowl practices made me notice that he could be a player that spends a lot of time on his arse. Same reason why DeMarcus Ware is now a 2nd round pick instead of a first. They might end up being All - Pros who knows? , but for right now, I think they're second tier of the " second tier " players.

III. - as per the USC thing, obviously I had a U.S.C. player going in that spot, and like usual, the editor ( myself ) missed it. Which brings me to a very valid point, to Marlin Brando's post... I don't have a draft machine like most mock sites. I actually take the time to read each and every team web page, ( over and over again ) and base each pick off of need, and fan base want, let alone a players so-called updated value. And I would never , and I mean NEVER EVER quote a ESPN mock draft. If I want Journalism, I'll read my sister's diary, If I want draft information, Why the hell would I care what Mel " the Hair " Kiper says. He only beat my by 12 points in last year's Mock draft contest, and he gets paid to do it. If I got his paycheck, and had all the inside resources he " supposedly has " I wouldn't get a single pick wrong, but there's no fun in being right all the time, I' know I tried it once.

[JPW]

Check out our site's draft guru... http://www.bengalszone.com/article.php?sid=261

you need to get a real draft expert. That mock is loaded with cupcake picks and bad analysis.

Not to mention you have Matt Roth, Jason Campbell, Bryant McFadden, and Eric Green dropping to the third round while you have Odell Thurman, while you have guys like Attiyah Ellison, Crophonso Thorpe, Kyle Orton and Chris Henry going in the 2nd round.

Outside of the first round, where he likely just copied an ESPN mock and shifted around a couple picks, it looks like he just pulled up a draft list and started picking random players.

And what the hell kind of mock draft has the only team of value on the site trading its picks?

Excuse me ...

But the FIRST thing that a MOCK Draft Should be is FUN ...

This is an Excellent Mock Draft ...

And I for one have had a Good Time mulling it over in my mind ...

[schweinhart]

Not to mention you have Matt Roth, Jason Campbell, Bryant McFadden, and Eric Green dropping to the third round while you have Odell Thurman, while you have guys like Attiyah Ellison, Crophonso Thorpe, Kyle Orton and Chris Henry going in the 2nd round.

While you have...while you have...while you have...

I've got the beer

I'm not sure why someone wouldn't consider these listed players in the rounds the guru's got them. I see Campbell in the 3rd at #67, Green and McFadden going in the last 5 picks of the 2nd, Ellison and Henry in the middle of the 2nd, and Crap Thorpe in the mid 3rd.

Roth looks like a solid early 2nd rounder to me and Orton has dropped to the 4th IMO, but Jayeeeeeeeezuz it's all a guestimate.

[chrishcovga]

Talking about fun, wait'll you see the Revised edition of Mock IV.

I'm all giddy with excitement " - Dayum , did I say Giddy !!

[HairOnFire]

But out of all the players mentioned before, Roth seems to me the one lacking in short area quickness and change of direction skills. He has good straight away quickness, But watching him play and seeing him at the Senior Bowl practices made me notice that he could be a player that spends a lot of time on his arse.

Fair enough. I don't happen to agree with you, but like you said...the last time I checked nobody had stepped up offering to pay me for my opinion.

My take on Roth is that he and Shaun Cody represent the two players who offer the least risk at DE. That being, they're going to be solid NFL players....end of story. However, there probably isn't a single measurable that I can list that would make Roth stand out from the pack, and I can offer no argument in response to those who see less upside than other prospects might have. All I'll say is that Roth impresses me as one of the most balanced DE prospects in this draft. Power and speed. Instinct and attitude. Almost flawless technique wrapped up in barely controlled rage. So what's not to like? Yeah, I'd prefer it if he was 10 or 15 pounds bigger, but he isn't and in the end...pun intended...I doubt it will matter much if he's drafted by the right team.

And in regards to change of direction skills, not only haven't I seen a problem....I think he's above average. But opinions differ, and I respect the fact that you stuck your neck out based upon your own observations. Props.

[chrishcovga]

Actually a revision to Mock 4 has been done, considering the additions the Broncos have made by signing all 11 starters of the Browns defense...

* But seriously folks, many players have since moved around again.....

[bnglsfan26]

But the FIRST thing that a MOCK Draft Should be is FUN ...

This is an Excellent Mock Draft ...

And I for one have had a Good Time mulling it over in my mind ...

anybody can post a mock draft... and anybody can copy the ESPN.com draft. I don't personally find it "fun" to read nearly every draft on the internet that's based off of one bad one.

if you want it to be "fun" you should offer more than one-line analysis like "this player is good," or make some predictions that are at least marginally different than the average draft that's going around, and then provide sound reasoning why you're right and the pop-pick is wrong. At least that's what I'd like to think is fun.

And predicting Kyle Orton will go above Jason Campbell someone should slap you for

example (cut from article i'm working on)

2. Miami - Ronnie Brown

Big Miss number one. There are several fallacies at play here. For those of you who missed the Best Column on Blue Chip Runningbacks, Ever, I'm not going to get into why Cedric Benson is the best running back in the draft, but rather why Ronnie Brown won't be the pick here.

The popular reasoning behind selecting Brown with this pick is that his combine numbers suggest that he is the most complete running back in this draft. That's nice, but there are 32 different offenses in the NFL. Ronnie Brown is best suited in a perimeter style offense, and Miami needs a power runner that it can ride for 350 attempts in a season. Brown averaged about a third of that over his career, and is the least effective of the three big backs in north-south running.

There's also reasoning that Saban played in the same conference as Ronnie Brown did and so he knows "first-hand" how Ronnie Brown plays. In four games against LSU, he had 2TDs (both in the same game) and averaged about 60 total yards. That's strikingly similar to what he's averaged per game over his career. It's also strikingly similar to what Travis Minor and Sammy Morris averaged in Miami's backfield last year, and worth only slightly more than Ricky Williams' stats in 2004. Speaking of which, his impending return to the Dolphins all but mitigates this pick being spent on a running back.

This team has problems at both WSLB and SSLB, and are trying to switch into a 3-4 defense. The addition of Donnie Spragan helps lessen the loss of Morlon Greenwood, but he is not nor ever will be anything more than a serviceable fill-in for injuries. On the other side, 16 year veteran Junior Seau has more than lost a step over his tenure with the Dolphins, and there are questions about his health that he will return to the “half-step” form he was in prior to the season-ending torn pectoral muscle he suffered last season.

M.L.'s pick: Derrick Johnson

[bengalboomer7]

Actually most of us are die hard football fans and really do find it entertaining to look through info. I check the updates on hailredskins every couple of days. Just read my previous post. Make up your own mock and post it. Chris did that in his free time, he didn't get paid for it. And you obviously like football enough to post here