Game Breakdown

[buffalomike]

Why To Watch

Buffalo's four-game winning streak has turned some heads around the league. However, the Bills know they probably have to win out to even have a chance to make the playoffs and they face a tough Cincinnati team that has won two of its last three games. Buffalo will consistently hand the ball off to RB Willis McGahee in the hopes of exploiting the Bengals' porous run defense and keeping their potentially explosive offense on the sidelines as much as possible.

The Bengals, on the other hand, could be without Carson Palmer who has played extremely well recently. While Cincinnati will want to lean on RB Rudi Johnson if Palmer can't go, Buffalo has been stout against the run and backup Jon Kitna will have to make plays. Will the Bills keep their postseason hopes alive or will the Bengals hand them a devastating loss?

When the Bills have the ball

Rushing:

McGahee

McGahee has rushed for over 100 yards in six games and Buffalo has won all six times. That's not good news for Cincinnati considering the run defense has been among the worst in the league and the Bills should give McGahee 20-plus carries. Staying committed to the running game will takes pressure off QB Drew Bledsoe on the road and sets up the play action package. It should also allow Buffalo to control the clock and keep its outstanding defense well-rested.

Williams

Although it's unknown if Travis Henry will be able to return from an ankle injury that has forced him to miss the last two games, Shaud Williams ran hard last week. Bills offensive coordinator Tom Clements can still keep McGahee fresh by giving Williams five-to-ten carries in relief even if Henry can't play.

The Bengals will likely counter by walking rookie SS Madieu Williams up to the line of scrimmage to help limit McGahee's production. However, it's important to recognize that these eight-man fronts could also backfire. Williams lacks ideal size and has problems shedding blocks quickly. If he gets caught up in traffic, McGahee could hit the second level at full speed and he shows a second gear in the open field. As a result, it's critical that Cincinnati's front seven fill the correct gaps and its secondary tackle well when defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier loads up against the run.

Passing:

Evans

Moulds

The problem with stacking the line of scrimmage to slow McGahee down is it's the lesser of two evils and not a solution. With Williams committed to stopping the run, he won't be able to give the corners safety help over the top. This is critical because WR's Eric Moulds and Lee Evans are capable of taking advantage of any single-coverage opportunities they get working against DC's Tory James and rookie Keiwan Ratliff. They have the speed to get behind James, who has lost a step with age, and the route-running skills to set the raw Ratliff up with some double moves.

Look for Frazier to mask this weakness in two ways. The first is to frequently play James and Ratliff off the line. While this will give Moulds and Evans space to get open underneath and put pressure on the corners to tackle well, it should help take away the big play in the vertical passing game. The second way Frazier will try to help his corners is to blitz early and often in the hopes that he can force Bledsoe to release the ball before his receivers can get open downfield.

Frazier will test the Bills' protection schemes by bringing pressure from different areas of the field and running some zone blitzes. If Buffalo fails to communicate and make the necessary adjustments, the pass rush should get to the immobile Bledsoe substantially improving the Bengals' chances of generating a turnover.

When the Bengals have the ball

Rushing: With Palmer ailing and Cincinnati's injury depleted defense vulnerable to wearing down late in games, offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski should also show a strong commitment to the running game. However, that will be far easier said than done. Buffalo's run defense is one of the best in the league and its front seven has been outstanding. DT's Pat Williams and Sam Adams have enough quickness to beat most interior offensive linemen to the point of attack and they are close-to-impossible to move once in position. LB's Takeo Spikes, London Fletcher and Jeff Posey are extremely active and they swarm to the ball.

Johnson

Milloy

In addition, SS Lawyer Milloy is a powerful open field tackler that excels in run support and is capable of preventing RB Rudi Johnson from breaking any long runs. The key for the Bengals will be continuing to hand the ball off to Johnson even if the ground game struggles early. If Cincinnati becomes a one-dimensional passing attack, an opportunistic Bills' defense will get plenty of chances to generate a turnover and it has the playmakers to take advantage.

One of the ways Bratkowski can help Johnson and keep Buffalo's talented front seven off balance is running reverses and reverse-action. The linebackers will either hesitate while they read the play making it easier for blockers to reach them or get caught out of position reacting to the initial action of the play.

Passing:

Kitna

Palmer left in the third quarter of last week's game with a sprained knee and while an MRI revealed no structural damage he is questionable. Head coach Marvin Lewis says Palmer's status depends on his tolerance for pain and how the knee responds to treatment. However, don't expect Cincinnati to scale the playbook back or change their game plan should Kitna start in Palmer's place. Kitna, who started all 16 games last year, has more experience in this scheme than Palmer and, more importantly, he too has the confidence of his teammates.

Cincinnati will have its work cut out for it when it drops back to pass regardless of who gets the start under center. Troy Vincent, who missed nine games with a knee injury, has moved from corner to free safety and he made an immediate impact in his first start there last week. The experience the Bills now have at safety and the ability of the front seven to stop the run without Milloy regularly lining up in the box gives defensive coordinator Jerry Gray several options.

He can switch coverages and blitz liberally because he doesn't have to worry about his safeties making a mistake as much. In addition, Vincent's ability to cover the slot receiver will free Milloy up to blitz more frequently. Milloy anticipates snap counts well and shows good closing speed to the quarterback.

Scouts' Edge

Palmer's injury is reason for concern and Kitna will understandably be rusty if he has to start but that's not why Cincinnati loses this game. Buffalo will win the battle of time of possession, dictate the tempo of the game and keep the Bengals off balance by regularly handing the ball off to McGahee. Bledsoe will take advantage of the single-coverage opportunities McGahee creates and find his playmakers downfield.

As a result, the Bills should be able to build a lead that forces Cincinnati to abandon its running game in an effort to come back. Gray will throw a number of different looks and bring pressure from all over once the Bengals become a one-dimensional passing attack. This should result in plenty of stalled drives and/or turnovers regardless of who lines up under center.

[kingwilly]

While I do not disagree completely with this assessment, I may agree with their predicted outcome if the game was in Buffalo. Since it is in Cincy, and given how well the Bengals have done in playing up to the level of the other top D's over the season so far, gotta go with the Bengals.

[bengalady]

Yes, I am going with the Bengals too. They are fired up over the whole QB thing and will be ready to help Jon out.

[HoosierCat]

Another game breakdown (off yahoo sports):

Cincinnati Game Provides Opportunity for Bills

Mark Weiler - Scout.com

December 16, 2004 at 1:37pm ET

Where to begin…:

This will be the first game vs. a worthy opponent since the Bills played the Patriots five weeks ago.

The "Smoke and Mirrors" Express makes its next stop this Sunday as the Bills hit the road to face a relatively equally matched Cincinnati team although one with a dichotomy of strengths. Empirically, the Bengals have a well-balanced offense but little defense worthy of note while the Bills have a very good defense but little offense worthy of note apart from massive defensive and special teams set ups. Both teams have had success at times with either special teams and/or defensive scoring.

Defense:

Rush D: Bills 4th, Bengals 28th

Pass D: Bills 11th, Bengals 15th

Yardage D: Bills 3rd, Bengals 25th

Scoring D: Bills 9th, Bengals 21st

Offense:

Rush O: Bills 15th, Bengals 16th

Pass O: Bills 26th, Bengals 11th

Yardage O: Bills 25th, Bengals 12th

Scoring O: Bills 9th, Bengals 10th

Key Players and Matchups:

Humpty vs. himself:

In games vs. teams currently 7-6 or better, i.e. .500+, Humpty has 6 TDs, 12 INTs, and 15 total turnovers.

In games vs. teams currently 6-7 or worse, i.e. .500-, Humpty has 12 TDs, 3 INTs, and 4 total turnovers.

And they say that the Bills' best chances of winning are with a QB as such. Puzzling! Nor does is say much about the team's confidences in a QB drafted in the first round of this year's draft!

Against teams currently either 7-6 or 6-7, Humpty has 5 TDs, 4 INTs, and 5 total turnovers in two poor games and one excellent one.

Point of note: In 2002, with similarly impressive victories such as what has come about lately, Humpty tossed 9 TDs to 18 TOs in 8 losses, largely to the toughest teams on the schedule.

Does it get any more par-for-the-course than that!

Which Humpty will show up? I have a guess! Fans and media rave about his lowered sack totals on the season to date, but in that analysis is a rare mention of how rarely teams have blitzed the Bills. Why, given that this is what has undone Humpty-led offenses in seasons, past remains a mystery. The Bills cannot however assume that Marvin Lewis does not realize this and should prepare for frequent blitzing on Sunday. If the Bengals do not blitz, then all the better for Humpty and the Bills' passing O.

Willis McGahee vs. the Bengals' 28th Ranked Rush Defense:

Once again, a prime opportunity for Willis to generate some yards while the game is still in contention and carry the game on his back as we've all been told he does. As well, how about some evidence of his "breaking that long one" that we keep hearing about ala "the one that got away." He should have a huge day allowing for his carrying the offense on his back. Then again, I've been saying that for a while. If he really does however, then it should increase the odds of the Bills emerging with a win dramatically.

Bills DL vs. the Rudi Johnson :

If the Bills win this game then it will likely be because they were able to stuff Rudi Johnson and the Bengal rushing game. Even with success in this department, the Bengals are a far more passing oriented team than the Bills and it is the dominant aspect of their offense. The Bills secondary will have to have one of its better games as well if a win is in the cards. But if Johnson is allowed to run as has happened with far lesser running backs in games without balanced offenses equivalent to that of the Bengals, then the Bengals should have no difficulty scoring points and winning this game barring turnovers. Johnson is the league's sixth leading yardage rusher and fourth leading rusher in terms of carries.

Bills DL vs. the Bengal OL:

The Bills will need to exert pressure on Palmer or Kitna if he ends up in the game. If the Bengal QBs have the kind of time that most QBs have had this season vs. the Bills, they will not be off on their passes and have an arsenal in the passing department which is formidable and one to be reckoned with. Palmer by-and-large can be rattled and has not played well vs. solid defenses. However, over the past two weeks vs. Baltimore and New England, two defenses among the top five in scoring D, and on the road, Palmer has been hot tossing for 584 yards on near 80% completions with 5 TDs and 2 INTs and QB ratings of well over 100 in both cases. Kitna played well in relief. As of now it appears that Kitna will be starting. Perfect timing for the Bills.

Bengals Front-7 vs. the Bills' OL:

It's simple, if the Bengals blitz, just as all other teams this season, they will experience tremendous success vs. the Bills' offense. If not, it's anyone's guess as to what happens.

Bills Secondary vs. Chad Johnson & T.J. Houshmanzadeh:

Chad Johnson is the league's second leading yardage receiver and third leading receptions leader. Houshmanzadeh is a strong #2 capable of exploiting a questionable Bills' secondary.

Injuries:

The Bengals enter this game with a laundry list of injuries also with the two biggest being DE Duane Clemons , CB Deltha O'Neal, and QB Carson Palmer being the biggest. All three are listed as questionable.

The Bills should be without no key starters other than TE Mark Campbell .

Summary:

Both teams rank similarly across the board in turnover ratio with the Bills a +4 and the Bengals a +3. Up until last week both teams were nearly tied for sacks 30/29. That changed of course with the Bills' 8-sack performance vs. Cleveland last Sunday. Of the Bills' 38 sacks however, 26 of the 38 sacks have come against Feeley, Boller, Bulger, and the McCown brothers in Cleveland and Arizona. In the other 8 games the Bills have a dozen sacks. The Bengals average 5.3 yards-per-play on offense while the Bills average 4.7 ypp.

The Bills moving Troy Vincent to free safety last week was long overdue and paid off as the secondary was the tightest that it's been all season. Then again, this was Cleveland led by Luke McCown in his second start as a rookie with little help elsewhere. How will this switch to safety, a necessary one regardless, play out vs. tougher offenses given a weak secondary otherwise this season remains to be seen. This is where Vincent belongs with the Bills however. Also a tremendously wise move has been getting London Fletcher involved in blitzing which has paid off in spades as this is truly where his strength lies. He's a force rushing the passer when used as such. This move is long overdue!

This will be a game of offenses. The Bengals' D is not great to be kind. The Bills' O has not been particularly impressive unless the defense or special teams has set them up well within opponents' territory in games. The Bills defense has also not been particularly impressive vs. teams with well-rounded offenses, either last season, or this one. The most well-rounded offense that the Bills have faced all season is that of the Pats

The Bills have put up 80 points in their last two road games against Miami and Seattle winning both games! So they are no strangers recently to scoring on the road. The Bengals have put up 55 on the road in their last two road games vs. Baltimore and New England, beating the Ravens and giving the Pats a serious run for their money. The Bengals also allowed 48 in their last home game to the hapless Browns. Then again, the Bills allowed 32 points to the Dolphins in a Miami season high.

The Bengals represent the most balanced offensive team that the Bills will have faced on the season other than the Patriots who put up 60 points in two games vs. the Bills.

The Bengals need a win if they desire to finish the season at 8-8 and a win here would all but guarantee that with a home game vs. the Giants next week. At 6-7 they are two wins removed from .500 with a season finale vs. the Eagles in Philly. So home wins over Buffalo and the Giants at home for them this week and next are key to them tying their last season's 8-8 mark.

The Bills look to extend their current four-game winning streak and continue to hold onto highly unlikely playoff possibilities which would crumble with a loss here. This Bengals team is better than any of the recently beaten four teams however.

Bottom line:

Regardless of the Bills' recent successes, they still do not possess the offensive line, a pass rush without the aid of frequent blitzing, or a QB capable of competing in the playoffs. The offense struggles to move the ball from within it's own end of the field and worse than last season's pathetic offense. The defense still cannot generate any pass rush except vs. the worst offenses.

I know, I know, 38 sacks. The problem is that of those 38 sacks, 26 of them have been against Miami, Baltimore, Arizona, St. Louis, and Cleveland, teams ranked 29th, 20th, 21st, 28th, and 25th in sacks allowed. The Bills have a dozen (12) sacks in 8 games otherwise with no more than two sacks in any single game. As well, half of those 38 sacks have been accumulated against Miami, St. Louis, and Cleveland, the 29th, 28th, and 25th in sacks allowed. The Bills have 19 sacks in 10 games otherwise. The only teams that the Bills have played that rank above the Bengals in sacks allowed are the Jets and Pats against whom the Bills have five sacks in four games against.

The Bills have scored a touchdown only 8 times this season with their first team offense on drives begun within their own 37-yard line. The Bengals do not have an offense like Miami's, Arizona's, or Cleveland's which will allow teams to set up the type of field position that will give the Bills "T-Ball" style "drives." The Bills are largely incapable of mounting long, sustained drives. So unless the special teams or D continues to set them up deep inside the Bengals' side of the field, there is no reason to expect more than 20 points in this game.

The Bengals enter this game far more battle-proven and decent teams than the Bills do. The Bengals have played four games vs. likely playoff teams and three more vs. playoff hopefuls Baltimore and Denver in 7 total games. While 2-5 in those games, the Bengals lost three games to Pittsburgh, New England, and the Jets, two of the three on the road, by an average margin of fewer than six points.

This game will boil down to the Bengal offense vs. the Bills' defense. Whichever team likely wins that battle, turnovers included, will likely emerge the winner on the day. If the Bills D that showed up in Miami comes to the table, then the Bengals will exploit the Bills D badly. If the D that showed up last week makes an appearance, then the Bills have a good shot at a win here.

The Bills enter this game having played five likely playoff teams with decisive losses twice to New England and once to Baltimore while going 1-4 in those games having only beaten the Jets coming off a Monday Night game. They have played no other playoff hopefuls other than Seattle and St. Louis, one of which will win their pathetically weak division by default yet neither of which are a team of true playoff caliber. Both teams have achieved their mediocre status by beating up on abysmal teams as well with their only wins vs. "winning" teams having come with the Rams beating up Seattle twice and the Hawks recent win over 7-6 Minnesota.

While merely another .500 variety opponent, the Bills can capitalize on this game by controlling it throughout most of it. Given the string of horrendous bottom feeders littering the Bills' schedule this season, this is a golden opportunity for this "resurgent" Bills team to truly showcase their stuff. Is this truly a team that beats most of it's sub-.500 opponents, is competitive vs. .500-caliber opponents, and consistently gets beaten by super-.500 opponents when the circumstances for each team are equal, or is this truly an improved Bills team over what the Commander Tom-Humpty Dumpty era has produced in four seasons thus far? That's the beauty of this season; "[the Bills] are like a box of chocolates; you never know what you're going to get." The caliber of opponent however, just as in past seasons, still offers a relatively accurate guide!

The Bills are 6-0 when McGahee rushes for 100-yards.

It was close however! The Bills almost won one without having McGahee go over 100 this past week which would have resulted in the team winning two games without him going over 100 and a resulting in a veritable marketing nightmare. Oh the horror! His last carry pushed him over that 100 "making him the impetus for the win" with the Bills up by 23 midway through the 4th quarter. I'm not quite sure they would have won this game without McGahee breaching that 100-yard barrier. Phew! Close one!

Also, and no doubt inconsequentially:

The Bills are 5-0 vs. teams currently ranked among the bottom six teams in rushing D.

The Bills are 5-1 vs. teams with 6 or fewer wins.

The Bills are 4-1 vs. teams currently among the bottom 25% in yardage offense.

The Bills are 3-1 vs. teams currently ranked among the bottom four in scoring O.

The Bills are 5-1 vs. teams currently ranked among the bottom ten teams in rushing O.

The Bills are 5-0 vs. teams that have not beaten a team with more than 7 wins on the season.

The Bills are 5-1 with average starting field position at their own 35-yard line or better.

The Bills are 4-0 with average starting field position at their own 42-yard line or better.

The Bills are 4-1 in games in which they have 13 or more drives.

The Bills are 7-0 when they score at least one touchdown on drives originating on the opponents' end of the field. (0-6 when not)

The Bills are 1-0 vs. teams coming off of Monday Night games.

The Bills are 4-1 vs. teams currently ranked 20th or worse in yardage D.

The Bills are 6-1 vs. teams currently ranked in the bottom half of scoring Ds.

The Bills are also 1-4 when average starting field position is less than at their own 33-yard line.

The Bills are 1-5 vs. teams ranked in the top half of scoring Ds with their only victory over the Jets following a Jet MNF game.

The Bills are 3-6 with two wins over Miami when starting field position is at less than their own 42-yard line.

Are the Bengals world-beaters? No. But they are the first formidable opponent on the Bills schedule in five games and one that the Bills are not clearly better than in most facets on paper.

Prediction:

Bills 20, Bengals 24.

This should be an interesting game both to watch and analyze. It should be an entertaining matchup worthy of being televised. If the Bills are truly the team that fans are reading about nationwide, a win here should be a given. A loss here justifies none of the current talk of greatness and success this season. This is a must-win game to prove improvement over last season. The Bengals are a .500 caliber team with a weak defense through and through, nothing more. If the Bills cannot beat the Bengals with as much "on the line" as there is, then they are not playoff caliber. It is that simple.

Comments: mweiler.billsreport@cox.net

[Guest BengalsSuck]

Well I would have to go with the Bills because they have a very solid defense with an improving offense, and the Bengals have a decent offense and a bad defense. So clearly the Bills have the edge and will pull out the victory.

[BengalsOwn]

I think that according to these "break downs", the Bengals would be 0-13 right now if they were all correct.

They don't mean much to me anymore.

[DrewsTheMan]

I think that anyone who spends more than five minutes typing a response needs to get a life.

[Bobcat Bengal]

Well I would have to go with the Bills because they have a very solid defense with an improving offense, and the Bengals have a decent offense and a bad defense. So clearly the Bills have the edge and will pull out the victory.

You mean you don't think the Bengals will pull it off?

Whoa.

I'll be damned, in spite of his BENGALSSUCK handle and all.

Leave it to this guy, they'd be 0-Lifetime.

[Bobcat Bengal]

I think that anyone who spends more than five minutes typing a response needs to get a life.

Says the man who dedicates his screen name to the moving statue of a QB.

[DrewsTheMan]

I bet Drew Bledsoe could beat your *ss in a race terry tate

[DrewsTheMan]

If your making fun of Drew because hes not fast, at least he can start every game a year without getting injured because he knows how to avoid taking big hits unlike your p***y QB Palmer.

[BengalsOwn]

nevermind

[bengals200485]

Was it Drew that got hurt for the season and lost his job to a 6 round draft pick named Tom Brady? I think you have the p@@@y Q.b.

All jokes aside people get hurt it's a man's game

GO BENGALS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Bills suck!!!!!!!!

[DrewsTheMan]

Tom Brady is better than just about every quarterback in the league except for Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, and Daunte Culpepper. That means he would replace Carson any day.

[BengalsOwn]

Tom Brady is better than just about every quarterback in the league except for Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, and Daunte Culpepper. That means he would replace Carson any day.

What a joke. Tom Brady is carried by his defense, just like Drew Bledsoe. Carson Palmer will be listed higher than McNabb and Culpepper next season, guarantee it.

[DrewsTheMan]

You wanna put money on that?

[BengalsOwn]

You wanna put money on that?

I'm not a betting man. I have other priorities right now.

[DrewsTheMan]

Thats cause you know what you said is not gonna happen.

[DrewsTheMan]

Next your gonna say that Carson Palmer has had a better year than Peyton Manning.

[BengalsOwn]

Next your gonna say that Carson Palmer has had a better year than Peyton Manning.

Peyton Manning is the best QB to ever play IMO.

But at least he's had a better year than Bledsoe.

[DrewsTheMan]

maybe he has, but how many wins do the bengals have?

Its not always about stats, its about leading your team to victory.

[jamesbrooks21]

maybe he has, but how many wins do the bengals have?

just one less than the powerhouse Bills.....and the same number of wins after sunday

[DrewsTheMan]

we'll see

[jamesbrooks21]

we'll see

we sure will

[schweinhart]

The Bengals will likely counter by walking rookie SS Madieu Williams up to the line of scrimmage to help limit McGahee's production. However, it's important to recognize that these eight-man fronts could also backfire. Williams lacks ideal size and has problems shedding blocks quickly. If he gets caught up in traffic, McGahee could hit the second level at full speed and he shows a second gear in the open field. As a result, it's critical that Cincinnati's front seven fill the correct gaps and its secondary tackle well when defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier loads up against the run.

I'd be surprised to see Madieu as the 8th in the box at all if O'Neal can't go at corner. I think you see Madieu in pass coverage and either Herring, Kaesviharn or Anthony Mitchell at SS w/ Beckett most likely out again.

I'd rather see Herring as the 8th in the box than Kasviharn for this one because K2 don't fare as well tackling larger RBs at line (ie Jamal Lewis in Ratbirds 1). Mitchell might prove to be the best choice for SS and 8th in box if Frazier calls man coverage w/ Madieu, Tory, Ratliff, and Roberts (if O'Neal don't go). I'm not sure Tory can hang w/ either Moulds or Evans but believe he'd have a better shot w/ Moulds w/ FS help to double deep.