Don's Crystal Ball Week 3 Picks

[thedon]

THE DON'S

Crystal Ball

WEEK 3 PICKS

By DonCanabis/TheDon

Analyst/Godfather

CONGRATS TO THE 2010 DON’S PREDICTION LEAGUE CHAMPIONS

*** Mlmpetert from thewarpath.net ***

*** Sparty from detroitlionsforum.com ***

We’ve been very lucky the past two weeks we have had some great football. We had some fake injuries, players playing with broken ribs and puncture lungs, QB’s passing for crazy amount of yards. M.Vick getting knocked out by his player, Buffalo winning on the buzzer just an awesome week. I tried to wait the most this week because of both the M.Vick and Romo injuries to see if they would be able to play this week and how well they could. So I apologize for the delay

Quick Hits

• I’m going to start with the story that hurts me the most. I was one of the biggest Cam Newton Bashers coming out of college calling him another V.Young and J.Russell. Great for College, GM’s and Owners fall in love with the raw talent but won’t translate to the NFL. Maybe the fact that the rookie wage scale was activated this year and he didn’t receive the crazy amount of money helped but the fact is that in two weeks he has impressed me. Yes he has made mistakes but the kid looks the part. Doesn’t look rattle has made some crazy throws and has the arm so it’s early but it looks like I might need to eat my own words.
  
  
• In related story the media needs to stop with this love/hate relationship with Romo it makes me sick how quickly one week everyone jumps in his bandwagon and go running the next. Don’t get me wrong what he did wit that pain and come back and lead the team to victory was amazing. But he has done it in different ways many times before and he has come back the next week and look like a complete rookie after. That’s what you get with Romo, He’s a very good QB not an Elite QB but everyone wants him to be in that Spot it comes with playing in Dallas but still, he’s a very good QB he might even take his team to a Super Bowl one day. But let’s get 1 thing straight; he’s not Brady, P. Manning, Brees or Rodgers. He will give you great numbers great games he will fight but you will never have flawless performances from him every week.
  
• I have to applaud the NY Giants coaching staff that was some great old school coaching with the faking of the injuries. We all know it there’s no hiding it and if you’re the Rams and their fans you will be upset with it. But that was great coaching there it brought back memories of the Buffalo No-huddle offense and how Marv Levy used to scream to the referees when it happen. Hey it might not fall into fair play but it’s in a gray area and I don’t mind coaches being smart and using everything to win.
  
• I went 9-7 against the spread for the second week in a row, and 14-2 straight up. I was out of town last week so I didn’t place a bet so nothing to report there. Over all for the season I’m at 59% moved up but want to be over the 60% right now and still tied for 14th place in the league.
  
  
• The Goat of the Week Oakland Raiders Secondary it was a great game and an awesome comeback by Buffalo, but with the game on the line at the goal line with no time left you can’t have a mental error en leave a guy wide open in the end zone, you just can’t .

On to the games

Jacksonville at Carolina -3.5 Ovr/Und 43

Its Blaine Gabbert debut, even with the short offseason the rookie QB’s have looked good or at least decent. But he’s facing another rookie QB that has shown he can move the ball and doesn’t get rattle even against the Super Bowl Champs. So take the Panthers to win this week but don’t expect them to cover the over I don’t feel they will get a lot of help from the Jaguars.

Straight: CAR

Spread: CAR

Ovr/Und: UND

Houston at New Orleans -4 Ovr/Und 43

Houston has looked really good and as I predicted it the biggest addition for them was wade Phillips. New Orleans came back huge last week but will be without their defensive leader. Houston known for his offense is their defense that has done the talking, #1 defense and #1 scoring defense. It faces its biggest competition or real test this week. I like Houston but I have to go with the more seasoned team playing at home in one of the toughest venues.

Straight: NO

Spread: NO

Ovr/Und: OVR

New England at Buffalo 8.5 Ovr/Und 53

I expected Buffalo to look better this year but not this good. With all the yardage New England is putting Buffalo is the #1 scoring offense, but New England is the hot hand winning by double digits each week so I expect a reality check for buffalo this week. Still New England with the mastermind Head Coach is the #31 defense in the league so I expect a high scoring close match

Straight: NE

Spread: BUF

Ovr/Und: OVR

Miami at Cleveland 2.5 Ovr/Und 41

For some reason Miami just can’t win at home. Week 3 is always tricky because it’s the time you see the biggest upsets. No team wants to start the season 0-3 because history tells us that you might as well start with your draft scouting because your season is over. Cleveland is a hard team to figure out right now they’re playing good defense but they played Cincinnati and the shell of a Colts team. Expect a close slow scoring game on this one but I give the advantage to Miami just because they’re in survival mode.

Straight: MIA

Spread: MIA

Ovr/Und: UND

Denver at Tennessee -7 Ovr/Und 42

UPSET OF THE WEEK

Tennessee pulled the biggest upset last week, their defense is playing good and they’re no longer relying on C.J to save the day heck I believe C.J is still on holdout because he hasn’t been seen on the field. Denver’s front seven has been hurt and they’re 28th against the run so maybe we can see C.J show up this week. Tennessee is a little bang up also and could be without their biggest weapon right now in Britt. I expect last week win will be too much for Tennessee and I expect them to be overconfident for a new team like Baltimore was last week so take Denver in this week upset.

Straight: DEN

Spread: DEN

Ovr/Und: UND

New York Giants at Philadelphia -6 Ovr/Und 44

The Black Cloud hasn’t moved away from New York apparently losing two more key players last week Hixon for the season and Super Mario with a concussion. Love him or hate him M. Vick is a playmaker he will drive you crazy at times and be reckless with the ball but, last week against a really good team and even with 3 straight turnovers he still had his team on the lead before he was pulled out. I expect the Giants to go after him and test him early and often but the Giants are just too banged up to take this week.

Straight: PHI

Spread: PHI

Ovr/Und: OVR

Detroit at Minnesota -3.5 Ovr/Und 45

Detroit has come out guns blazing we all expected a great defense but the offense hasn’t been too shabby either. M.Stafford has shown for the past years that if he just could stay healthy he could be an impact player and he has shown it in a big way this past two weeks. Donovan’s career is definitely over this was his last stop is sad to see it end like this. The Vikings look old in both sides of the field and they’re playing one of the best run defenses in the NFL so I can’t see an Upset this week even at home.

Straight:DET

Spread:DET

Ovr/Und:UND

San Francisco at Cincinnati -2.5 Ovr/Und 40.5

Both these team’s defenses have played good, hard & physical but last week both folded at the end. Cincinnati will be without 2 of his top two WR one because of season Injury and the other because of Career Stupidity. It’s still a probability that Simpson might still play this Sunday (only in Cincinnati) but, with all the legal troubles coming his way even if he shows up I don’t expect him to be there. San Francisco needs Cabtree to play this week badly last week after Edwards went down their offense just couldn’t move the ball, Smith needs a target to throw to. Take the 49ers on this one too many factors for the Bengals this week.

Straight: SF

Spread: SF

Ovr/Und: UND

New York Jets at Oakland Raiders 3 Ovr/Und 41

The Jets had a huge loss last week losing not only the most important player in that Jets Oline but the guy that helps Sanchez the most. Oakland has looked good these past two weeks keeping games close. Without their top 2 WR this week playing against that Jets defense I believe it will be way too much for Campbell to handle.

Straight: NYJ

Spread: NYJ

Ovr/Und: UND

Kansas City at San Diego -14.5 Ovr/Und 45

I said last week that I hated 3 score lines in the NFL and I expected this with Kansas City after how they been playing the past two weeks. The reality is that with the loss of J. Charles this team is getting worse by the week. Take the points take the over, KC is lost right now and San Diego needs this win badly.

Straight: SD

Spread: SD

Ovr/Und: OVR

Baltimore at St. Louis 4 Ovr/Und 41.5

So week one Baltimore light it up, in week two they completely dropped the ball so can we expect another big score this week. The Rams will probably be without their top 2 HB this week and playing against a hungry defense that looked awful last week. Take Baltimore and the points on this one I expect an aggressive high scoring game.

Straight: BAL

Spread: BAL

Ovr/Und: OVR

Green Bay at Chicago 3.5 Ovr/Und 46

UPSET OF THE WEEK

I’m going to go on a limb on this one. Green Bay has won both weeks but their defense hasn’t looked great they have allowed a lot of points and lost Nick Collins for the season last week. This is a divisional game and a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship. I don’t expect Chicago to repeat this season but they match up well against the Packers. This are usually close low scoring games and you know Cutler had to mark this week when the schedule came up he has something to prove.

Straight: CHI

Spread: CHI

Ovr/Und: UND

Arizona at Seattle : 3.5 Ovr/Und 43

I wouldn’t be surprised if this game turns out to be an upset. Seattle needs the win, they usually play good at home and the Cardinals have a history of not traveling well up north. But the Seahawks haven’t shown me or anybody else anything to believe they can pull the upset. So take Arizona for the win but I believe this game will be close.

Straight: ARI

Spread: SEA

Ovr/Und: UND

Atlanta at Tampa Bay : -1.5 Ovr/Und 45.5

Atlanta hasn’t looked good; they came from behind last week and took the win from Philadelphia. But they haven’t looked like the team some people expect to contend for a Super Bowl but Tampa looked worse. This is a great rivalry hard hitting but the Bucs are having or will have the season that I expect them to have after last year’s mirage. They are a good team don’t get me wrong but they’re still too young.

Straight: ATL

Spread: ATL

Ovr/Und: OVR

Pittsburgh at Indianapolis : 10.5 Ovr/Und 39.5

The Steelers showed up last week last week like I expected them to do. Indianapolis looks like a team that already has drop the towel. Expect the Steelers to repeat the formula this week and come after Collins, take the points and the over on this one.

Straight: PIT

Spread: PIT

Ovr/Und: Ovr

Washington at Dallas : -4.5 Ovr/Und 45

I waited to post this column so long because of this game; I just wanted to hear information about the injuries. It looks like Romo will play this week, which I don’t believe is a great idea. If Dallas would be healthy I might sign a different tune. But the reality is that the Cowboys have too many players hurt out or banged up in key positions on both sides of the ball. You have Romo, Austin, Dez, Jones and Witten with injuries plus 3 of their Oline man are hurt also. This is a team with a desperate need of the bye week. You add that Washington is playing good football that Grossman has looked good and that defense is playing really well and will go after Romo. Take Was on this one.

Straight: WAS

Spread: WAS

Ovr/Und: OVR

The Hot Picks

Record 8-4 66% 3-0 in Upset picks

Baltimore (league)

Atlanta(league)

Detroit (league)

Washington

Buffalo

Pittsburgh

Don’s Prediction League Leaders

1. Sparty 65 -31 68% [detroitlionsforum.com]
   
2. JohnJet 64 -32 67% [forums.newyorkjets.com]
   
3. BrrsColts 63-33 66% [coltfreaks.com]
   
4. Haynie 63 -33 66% [cowboyasboard.com]
   

14.- TheDon 57-39 59%

[cincyhokie]

Did you know that SF is 2-21 in Eastern Standard Time Zone since 2003? 2-21. Seems like good info to know for people betting on two 1-1 teams. One of which is playing it's first road game, SF. And the other is playing it's first home game, Cincinnati.

[thedon]

Did you know that SF is 2-21 in Eastern Standard Time Zone since 2003? 2-21. Seems like good info to know for people betting on two 1-1 teams. One of which is playing it's first road game, SF. And the other is playing it's first home game, Cincinnati.

Did you know that since 2003 there has been 5 different Head Coaches in San Francisco. you can't take into account stats like that when you have had change of managment, if you base yourself only by stats you will fail because there are different situation and changing HC is a huge factor different philosophies different teams, different approaches. if it were the otehr way around I would take a look at how M.Lewis has done in the west coast, and other stuff but you have to concentrate mostly in the team playign this year. otherwise you will be taking KC at home every week.

it doesn't serve me to take a look on the passing game of the bengals in the past 5 years because we have a new QB don't we?

[cincyhokie]

Did you know that SF is 2-21 in Eastern Standard Time Zone since 2003? 2-21. Seems like good info to know for people betting on two 1-1 teams. One of which is playing it's first road game, SF. And the other is playing it's first home game, Cincinnati.

Did you know that since 2003 there has been 5 different Head Coaches in San Francisco. you can't take into account stats like that when you have had change of managment, if you base yourself only by stats you will fail because there are different situation and changing HC is a huge factor different philosophies different teams, different approaches. if it were the otehr way around I would take a look at how M.Lewis has done in the west coast, and other stuff but you have to concentrate mostly in the team playign this year. otherwise you will be taking KC at home every week.

it doesn't serve me to take a look on the passing game of the bengals in the past 5 years because we have a new QB don't we?

So the rookie head coach leading his team on it's first road trip makes it all better? But if we're going to simply match up head coach vs. head coach, I'll take Lewis in his team's home opener. And I agree, we can't look too far back into history for trends with teams, but that is exactly what most prognosticators are doing to the Bengals when failing to realize that a new QB, new WR, a new OC, and basically an entirely new offense does not equal last year's 4-12 team.

But anyway. If I'm betting on a team, I'm not taking the one that's 4-36 against non-divisional road opponents since 2003. I know what losing can do and how it can permeate through coaches and players over time. I'm a Bengals fan.

[Spor_tees]

Did you know that SF is 2-21 in Eastern Standard Time Zone since 2003? 2-21. Seems like good info to know for people betting on two 1-1 teams. One of which is playing it's first road game, SF. And the other is playing it's first home game, Cincinnati.

Did you know that since 2003 there has been 5 different Head Coaches in San Francisco. you can't take into account stats like that when you have had change of managment, if you base yourself only by stats you will fail because there are different situation and changing HC is a huge factor different philosophies different teams, different approaches. if it were the otehr way around I would take a look at how M.Lewis has done in the west coast, and other stuff but you have to concentrate mostly in the team playign this year. otherwise you will be taking KC at home every week.

it doesn't serve me to take a look on the passing game of the bengals in the past 5 years because we have a new QB don't we?

It doesn't matter what team it is, teams from the West Coast playing 1pm games on the East Coast have a HORRIBLE record. You continue to point out the Bengal's WR injury woes but what about the fact that Edwards is out with injury and reports have Crabtree only playing part time in third down situations. I think that puts the 49ers in an even worse situation than the Bengals as far as WR goes.

[thedon]

Did you know that SF is 2-21 in Eastern Standard Time Zone since 2003? 2-21. Seems like good info to know for people betting on two 1-1 teams. One of which is playing it's first road game, SF. And the other is playing it's first home game, Cincinnati.

Did you know that since 2003 there has been 5 different Head Coaches in San Francisco. you can't take into account stats like that when you have had change of managment, if you base yourself only by stats you will fail because there are different situation and changing HC is a huge factor different philosophies different teams, different approaches. if it were the otehr way around I would take a look at how M.Lewis has done in the west coast, and other stuff but you have to concentrate mostly in the team playign this year. otherwise you will be taking KC at home every week.

it doesn't serve me to take a look on the passing game of the bengals in the past 5 years because we have a new QB don't we?

So the rookie head coach leading his team on it's first road trip makes it all better? But if we're going to simply match up head coach vs. head coach, I'll take Lewis in his team's home opener. And I agree, we can't look too far back into history for trends with teams, but that is exactly what most prognosticators are doing to the Bengals when failing to realize that a new QB, new WR, a new OC, and basically an entirely new offense does not equal last year's 4-12 team.

But anyway. If I'm betting on a team, I'm not taking the one that's 4-36 against non-divisional road opponents since 2003. I know what losing can do and how it can permeate through coaches and players over time. I'm a Bengals fan.

Don't want to say I told u so but...... 5-36. I don't have it against anybody. I do the analysis take each team strenghts and call it as I see it for what I've seen and what we can expect. Nothing against your team just call it as I see it every week

[BengalszoneBilly]

Did you know that SF is 2-21 in Eastern Standard Time Zone since 2003? 2-21. Seems like good info to know for people betting on two 1-1 teams. One of which is playing it's first road game, SF. And the other is playing it's first home game, Cincinnati.

Did you know that since 2003 there has been 5 different Head Coaches in San Francisco. you can't take into account stats like that when you have had change of managment, if you base yourself only by stats you will fail because there are different situation and changing HC is a huge factor different philosophies different teams, different approaches. if it were the otehr way around I would take a look at how M.Lewis has done in the west coast, and other stuff but you have to concentrate mostly in the team playign this year. otherwise you will be taking KC at home every week.

it doesn't serve me to take a look on the passing game of the bengals in the past 5 years because we have a new QB don't we?

So the rookie head coach leading his team on it's first road trip makes it all better? But if we're going to simply match up head coach vs. head coach, I'll take Lewis in his team's home opener. And I agree, we can't look too far back into history for trends with teams, but that is exactly what most prognosticators are doing to the Bengals when failing to realize that a new QB, new WR, a new OC, and basically an entirely new offense does not equal last year's 4-12 team.

But anyway. If I'm betting on a team, I'm not taking the one that's 4-36 against non-divisional road opponents since 2003. I know what losing can do and how it can permeate through coaches and players over time. I'm a Bengals fan.

Don't want to say I told u so but...... 5-36. I don't have it against anybody. I do the analysis take each team strenghts and call it as I see it for what I've seen and what we can expect. Nothing against your team just call it as I see it every week

I've known you for a few years now, and you really haven't done it any other way Don.

[cincyhokie]

Did you know that SF is 2-21 in Eastern Standard Time Zone since 2003? 2-21. Seems like good info to know for people betting on two 1-1 teams. One of which is playing it's first road game, SF. And the other is playing it's first home game, Cincinnati.

Did you know that since 2003 there has been 5 different Head Coaches in San Francisco. you can't take into account stats like that when you have had change of managment, if you base yourself only by stats you will fail because there are different situation and changing HC is a huge factor different philosophies different teams, different approaches. if it were the otehr way around I would take a look at how M.Lewis has done in the west coast, and other stuff but you have to concentrate mostly in the team playign this year. otherwise you will be taking KC at home every week.

it doesn't serve me to take a look on the passing game of the bengals in the past 5 years because we have a new QB don't we?

So the rookie head coach leading his team on it's first road trip makes it all better? But if we're going to simply match up head coach vs. head coach, I'll take Lewis in his team's home opener. And I agree, we can't look too far back into history for trends with teams, but that is exactly what most prognosticators are doing to the Bengals when failing to realize that a new QB, new WR, a new OC, and basically an entirely new offense does not equal last year's 4-12 team.

But anyway. If I'm betting on a team, I'm not taking the one that's 4-36 against non-divisional road opponents since 2003. I know what losing can do and how it can permeate through coaches and players over time. I'm a Bengals fan.

Don't want to say I told u so but...... 5-36. I don't have it against anybody. I do the analysis take each team strenghts and call it as I see it for what I've seen and what we can expect. Nothing against your team just call it as I see it every week

Good job. Well done.

[thedon]

I've known you for a few years now, and you really haven't done it any other way Don.

MAN that signature pic you have makes me stop doing what ever I was going to do every freaking time lol