Andrew Luck helped the Bengals

[HairOnFire]

Have you met...people? They do dumb crap all the time. Extended warranties. Lottery tickets. Rent-to-own. Those 'healing bracelets' on TV.

That's funny because it's true....to a point. But again, your rant is based upon people knowingly doing dumb or irrational things....something that could be said about anything. As the prophet Izzard reminds us, when given a choice between cake or death some of us will chose death. However, I doubt it happens often.

I'm saying some team's gonna f*** up and draft a QB too early based on media hype.

Actually you're saying more than that. You're also saying GM's often fall in love with a players combine numbers...which makes far more sense to me than any rant based upon those same decision makers knowingly doing the dumb thing simply because the media or popular opinion says he should.

So let's say Carolina passes on him [Newton]. I think it's more likely he goes #2-4 now than it was when Luck was in play, simply because his perceived value will increase even though his actual value won't.

Fair enough, but I'm still not buying it. Because I'm still not seeing how Luck returning to school improves the odds a team will trade with the Bengals for one of the other QB's. That possibility already existed, right? And for all of the same reasons.

As for the matter of public perception, the tail doesn't wag the dog. Or if you prefer, the media constantly reacts and adjusts to information leaked by actual sources and changes what it writes based upon that new information. By the same token, NFL front offices do not react to the expressed opinions of a Chick Ludwig or a Todd McShay. The dog wags the tail.

Do consider that the Az Cardinals pick #5. I think it's outrageously likely they take the best QB on the board. That really does put the Bengals in a good spot if they choose to exercise it.

Absolutely. But again, all of that was true even before Luck announced his decision. Nothing changed in that narrow regard. But Luck's decision very likely means a Green or Bowers isn't available to the Bengals if they are unable to trade or simply don't want to.

So how were the Bengals helped by Luck's decision?

[DC_Bengals_Fan]

That's funny because it's true....to a point. But again, your rant is based upon people knowingly doing dumb or irrational things...

Not at all. The people making the irrational (or just bad) decisions do so with the best of intentions and often conviction of their right-ness. Bay of Pigs springs to mind, for instance.

Actually you're saying more than that. You're also saying GM's often fall in love with a players combine numbers...which makes far more sense to me than any rant based upon those same decision makers knowingly doing the dumb thing simply because the media or popular opinion says he should.

One coin, two sides. The whole hype machine - combine, media, etc - will play a far larger role than it ought. And I think teams will make an overly emotional (somewhat irrational, if you will) decision based upon the media, the hype - and the pressure to sell tickets and win games with a franchise QB.

Fair enough, but I'm still not buying it. Because I'm still not seeing how Luck returning to school improves the odds a team will trade with the Bengals for one of the other QB's. That possibility already existed, right? And for all of the same reasons.

It did, but I think it increases. I think a guy who would have been picked at 5-8 will be pushed up to 1-4. That's based on mocks I was seeing prior to Luck's announcement. We'll know more in a couple of months. But it'll be an interesting scenario - lots of QB-desperate teams at the top of the draft and a mediocre QB class.

Absolutely. But again, all of that was true even before Luck announced his decision. Nothing changed in that narrow regard. But Luck's decision very likely means a Green or Bowers isn't available to the Bengals if they are unable to trade or simply don't want to.

You still have more teams gunning for a very limited resource. At a minimum, I think it's likely that the Bengals at least aren't hurt, since I think it's still likely that a QB goes in the top 4. I'm guessing that the appeal of Newton (or whomever) will increase, putting him closer to the #4 pick whereas the mocks I was seeing didn't have them until 6+ before.

By eliminating the alpha dog, I think there can be more movement for the other guys, whereas before it was Luck at #1 and other guys after the Bengals pick. I just think it gives the Bengals more chances to trade - which of course assumes that is desirable. If it's not, then yeah, it can't help having Luck gone.

As an aside - I can't believe Luck stayed without getting a guarantee from Harbaugh. Completely nuts. Kid now has to head into the draft with one year under a new coaching staff.

[Kazkal]

Mallet threw for over 500 yards more at 3,869 same 32 TD's and 12 INT's with a 64.7 comp % and his 2009 stats were about the same with 3,627 yds 30 TD's 7 INT's

Aye but he's known as a immobile statue

Cam Newton threw for 2,589 28 TD's 6 INT's 67.1% and then ran for another 1,409 and 20 TD's

Cam Newton could work his way in to a top 5 Pick though he may have been able do it even if luck entered the guy is a highlight reel and will have hype on his side..

Seriously, Lucks numbers werent that impressive.

For Luck it's more then the numbers It's his intangables the fact he was running out of a pro style offensive being coached by very respected Jim Harbaugh.You may dislike the kid but I'd drop carson in a second to have Luck "shrug"

[HairOnFire]

The people making the irrational (or just bad) decisions do so with the best of intentions and often conviction of their right-ness. Bay of Pigs springs to mind, for instance.

A sweet historical reference to be sure, but maybe the Akili example would be more fitting.

One coin, two sides. The whole hype machine - combine, media, etc - will play a far larger role than it ought. And I think teams will make an overly emotional (somewhat irrational, if you will) decision based upon the media, the hype - and the pressure to sell tickets and win games with a franchise QB.

I'm guessing I could name far more overhyped players who were later said to have fallen in the draft as you could name players who were drafted higher than actually ranked due to media perception.

At a minimum, I think it's likely that the Bengals at least aren't hurt, since I think it's still likely that a QB goes in the top 4. I'm guessing that the appeal of Newton (or whomever) will increase, putting him closer to the #4 pick whereas the mocks I was seeing didn't have them until 6+ before.

But mock drafts don't determine where players are selected. Evaluations by NFL teams determine where those players are picked, and in large part none of those evaluations have even begun yet. Any mock draft available today will quickly be made obsolete next week, and at best gives a broad inaccurate ranking of prospects before serious evaluations begin and trades, player cuts, and free agency change team needs. Worse, most mock drafts remain totally fugtarded right up to draft day.

We know this, right?

[DC_Bengals_Fan]

I'm guessing I could name far more overhyped players who were later said to have fallen in the draft as you could name players who were drafted higher than actually ranked due to media perception.

An interesting question. I might counter by suggesting that it takes one moron (Al Davis) for a player to jump, but it takes a number of them to make him fall. As to whether he 'fell' because the opinion of the player changed in the eyes of the football insiders, or because the insiders simply differed from media perception, is impossible to say.

But mock drafts don't determine where players are selected. Evaluations by NFL teams determine where those players are picked, and in large part none of those evaluations have even begun yet.

This is of course true. However, the media pundits have largely the same information available, and in many cases the pundits are former football executives themselves. I readily admit it's not fantastic data, but it's data. And for what it's worth, typically how far off is (for instance) Kiper's final mock vs. the actual draft order?

Any mock draft available today will quickly be made obsolete next week

Which is actually the point. I'm interested to see how these guys move in mock drafts over time. We'll never know what would have happened with Luck in the draft, but it will be instructive to see A) if there's movement in the mocks (ie, a hype-o-meter) before the combine (in total absence of additional real information about the players), B. if there's movement after the combine (when there is largely useless information gained), and C) whether the mock draft trends line up with what really happens at all. What we do know is that none of these guys will play another real football game between now and then, yet many of these players will move significantly in the eyes of the media 'experts', and probably in the eyes of some teams too.

In the end, we shall see - but one way or the other, Luck's absence will have significant effects on this draft. And it'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

[HairOnFire]

An interesting question. I might counter by suggesting that it takes one moron (Al Davis) for a player to jump, but it takes a number of them to make him fall. As to whether he 'fell' because the opinion of the player changed in the eyes of the football insiders, or because the insiders simply differed from media perception, is impossible to say.

IMHO, teams have every reason to ignore public perception. Most readily available draft analysis isn't sophisticated enough for fans or beat writers to accurately judge factors like how long it might take a prospect to contribute or how well he might fit in one teams scheme as opposed to anothers. Granted, as fans we're exposed to far more useful information than in years prior, but it's still generalized non-specific noodling.

However, the media pundits have largely the same information available, and in many cases the pundits are former football executives themselves. I readily admit it's not fantastic data, but it's data.

Fair enough, but your points about hype aren't entirelly off the mark. For example, it's never been proven but Tex Schramn(sp?) has repeatedly been linked to rumors he pimps certain prospects, including our own Akili, in exchange for payolla. And a few years ago SI's Pat Kirwan was actually investigated, found guilty, and fined for accepting payolla. And since you mentioned Kiper I'll add that it's been suggested the major source of friction between him and McShay relates to the latter persons rumored willingness to accept payolla in exchange for pimping undeserving prospects. Kiper has fought those types of rumors his entire career and is said to be privately outraged at how closely he's been forced to work with McShay.

Any mock draft available today will quickly be made obsolete next week

Which is actually the point. I'm interested to see how these guys move in mock drafts over time. We'll never know what would have happened with Luck in the draft, but it will be instructive to see A) if there's movement in the mocks (ie, a hype-o-meter) before the combine (in total absence of additional real information about the players), B. if there's movement after the combine (when there is largely useless information gained), and C) whether the mock draft trends line up with what really happens at all.

I guess this is where we differ most as I've never been very interested in the so-called mock-o-sphere since most mock drafts aren't worth the time it takes to craft them, my own efforts included. And again, I have always assumed any rise or fall of a specific prospect is more the result of writers adjusting to new information gleaned from scouts, coaches, and general managers. Nutshelled, as information leaks from warrooms to the media players move up or down in mock drafts far more dramatically than we'd see if allowed behind closed doors. The dog wags the tail, not vice-versa.

In the end, we shall see - but one way or the other, Luck's absence will have significant effects on this draft. And it'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

Absolutely. Because if nothing else his decision has had a huge impact on what happens in the 1st overall slot. Simply stated, Carolina has already been blindsided, and is now forced to adjust....dictating everyone else adjusts as well. But whether any of this actually helps Cincy is far from certain.

[Sea Ray]

Fair enough, but your points about hype aren't entirelly off the mark. For example, it's never been proven but Tex Schramn(sp?) has repeatedly been linked to rumors he pimps certain prospects, including our own Akili, in exchange for payolla. And a few years ago SI's Pat Kirwan was actually investigated, found guilty, and fined for accepting payolla. And since you mentioned Kiper I'll add that it's been suggested the major source of friction between him and McShay relates to the latter persons rumored willingness to accept payolla in exchange for pimping undeserving prospects. Kiper has fought those types of rumors his entire career and is said to be privately outraged at how closely he's been forced to work with McShay.

How does this work? Who pays these guys to pimp prospects? Did Oregon pay Tex to pimp Akili? What's the money trail here? You said Kirwan was found guilty. Who paid him?

[ArmyBengal]

I'm spitballing, but agents have never been the most honest figures in the profession.

That would be a good place to start and it's not hard to fathom.

A player signs with an agent and that agent then makes his rounds to the "mock experts" with a pocket full of cash.

The higher his player goes in the draft, the more money the agent gets in return.

I'd look at the inital payment as an investment.

[HairOnFire]

I'm spitballing, but agents have never been the most honest figures in the profession.

That would be a good place to start and it's not hard to fathom.

Winner winner chicken dinner.

Rumors about so-called draft experts taking payolla are commonplace, but to my knowledge Pat Kirwan is the only example where guilt was determined and punishment delivered. Even then it was a slap on the wrist thing, handled mostly inhouse at SI as I recall, and the story disappeared quickly, probably because Kirwan has never been as high profile as so many others. But by the same token he is an ex-GM and current media hack and his opinion was deemed valuable enough for someone to grease his palm.

Before anyone asks, the story broke two or three years ago and I don't remember the name of the agent involved with Kirwan. But for those interested the Google thing might/should yield results.

[jjakq27]

I think there is often "inflation" of players by their college coaches as well. Witness the Andre Smith drama in which Marvin accused the Tide and specifically Nick Saban for not being completely honest about Smith. But in defense of the school, what better way to market your team than with the NFL draft? It up to the teams to do their homework.

[BengalPimp]

It will make a difference because this is the NFL Draft (95% hype with something like 147 million mock drafts out there) and the QB position (the most glorified, and perceived franchise saving position).

Well, there's the real NFL draft and then there's everything else.

Media hype sells draft guides and website hits, not players.

I don't know about that? To this day, I am still 100% sure that the Bengals worked the entire '90's and early 2000's purely based on draft guides and mock's. They had virtually no scouting department, no real GM, and they took many guys who were "hyped" by the media. Whether it be David Klingler (for his supposed arm strength), Dan "Big Daddy" Wilkinson (who supposedly was a terror who couldn't be blocked), Akili Smith, Reinard Wilson (who benefitted GREATLY from other teams focusing on Peter Boulware at FSU), P-Dub (all hype, shifty,but not fast and too small) among others.

***Note: I refused to put Ki-Jana on that list because i am sure had he not torn his ACL prior to his rookie year (or if ACL surgery was as advanced back in '95 as it is today) he would have been a great RB***

[Kazkal]

Not a Fan of Most "draft experts" But I always Enjoy Mike Mayock,

The guy seems knowledgeable and does his homework vs just picking names out of a paper hat.

[BengalPimp]

Do consider that the Az Cardinals pick #5. I think it's outrageously likely they take the best QB on the board. That really does put the Bengals in a good spot if they choose to exercise it.

Absolutely. But again, all of that was true even before Luck announced his decision. Nothing changed in that narrow regard. But Luck's decision very likely means a Green or Bowers isn't available to the Bengals if they are unable to trade or simply don't want to.

So how were the Bengals helped by Luck's decision?

Give it time and you'll see. Yes, the other players get immediatelty bumped up a spot and they may not get AJ Green (hell, they might not have regardless) or Peterson, BUT now that Luck is no longer available, you will see who will emerge next. Look, there are a minimum of 5 teams that select between #5 through about #12 that need QB's. Arizona (nothing resembling an NFL QB on their roster) Washington (they will likely void McNabb's extension since it hasn't officially kicked in yet) Tennessee (already said VY will not be back) 49ers (Alex Smith's contract is up and they will not bring him back) and Vikings (Favre will not be back).

Now, since QB's get hyped A LOT, You can be sure one will get tons and tons of attention and hype, after the national title game and especially after the Combine (my money is on Newton). You can also expect another (or two) to slide......So, if a team like Tennessee for example, would have settled for say, Mallett or Gabbert comes away with mixed feelings, and Newton propels himself, why wouldn't they trade up to get the consensus #1 rather than "settle" for someone who they (and the media) are less sure about?

The Bengals need to be proactive, talk to other clubs, gauge interest in the #4 pick...manipulate the value of that pick, and prey on the desperation of other franchises....after all, you're partially right in that some teams rely on their own evaluations and are not swayed by the media hype, but those are strong franchises like The Pats, Colts, Steelers, Ravens, etc....All teams that are NOT drafting high. They teams that are drafting high, are the franchises in turmoil, thus, rational decisions are sometimes overcome by desperation....especially when ticket sales are at stake!

[Sea Ray]

I don't know about that? To this day, I am still 100% sure that the Bengals worked the entire '90's and early 2000's purely based on draft guides and mock's. They had virtually no scouting department, no real GM, and they took many guys who were "hyped" by the media. Whether it be David Klingler (for his supposed arm strength), Dan "Big Daddy" Wilkinson (who supposedly was a terror who couldn't be blocked), Akili Smith, Reinard Wilson (who benefitted GREATLY from other teams focusing on Peter Boulware at FSU), P-Dub (all hype, shifty,but not fast and too small) among others.

***Note: I refused to put Ki-Jana on that list because i am sure had he not torn his ACL prior to his rookie year (or if ACL surgery was as advanced back in '95 as it is today) he would have been a great RB***

I think scouting really comes into play after the first rd. Sure they reached a little on Klingler but Dan Wilkinson would have been the #1 pick by 90% of the teams that year. I blame the Bengals coaches as much as anyone for most of their 1st rd busts

[membengal]

Bengals are about as likely to trade out of their spot in the draft as the chiefs are to win the super bowl in a few weeks. Which is to say, not likely.