Andrew Luck helped the Bengals

[BengalPimp]

Andrew Luck helped out the Bengals by returning to Stanford. It would be even better if we had a savvy GM, but even Mike Brown should know how to play this.

Hear me out.

With Luck returning to school, Carolina almost certainly will not choose a QB, but rather see what they have in Claussen for 1 more year. I can't see Denver or Buffalo reaching for a QB either, so, the best thing for the Bengals to do is ride the hype that usually comes out of the Combine. You can bet that 1 of the QB's will impress enough to be labeled the "best QB of the class". The Bengals should play that, and make it seem they are willing to take that QB (Newton, Gabbert, Locker, Mallett, whoever has the best Combine). Knowing that starting at #5 Arizona, there are a ton of teams that need QB help like Washington (who will likely cut ties with McNabb and decide to void his extension), Tennessee (who already said they will release Vince Young), 49ers, and Vikings, they can force a team to trade up and thus acquire more picks) to get the #1 QB of the class. Even if the other teams don't buy what the Bengals are selling, the fact that the Bengals hold # 4 ahead of the Cardinals at # 5, they are in a great spot for a team looking to leapfrog Arizona to get their QB.

These are scenarios a good GM would be thinking about. We don't have a good GM, so if anybody here knows a way to get this idea to Mike Brown, please forward this post!!!!!!

[Kazkal]

Andrew Luck helped out the Bengals by returning to Stanford. It would be even better if we had a savvy GM, but even Mike Brown should know how to play this.

Hear me out.

With Luck returning to school, Carolina almost certainly will not choose a QB, but rather see what they have in Claussen for 1 more year. I can't see Denver or Buffalo reaching for a QB either, so, the best thing for the Bengals to do is ride the hype that usually comes out of the Combine. You can bet that 1 of the QB's will impress enough to be labeled the "best QB of the class". The Bengals should play that, and make it seem they are willing to take that QB (Newton, Gabbert, Locker, Mallett, whoever has the best Combine). Knowing that starting at #5 Arizona, there are a ton of teams that need QB help like Washington (who will likely cut ties with McNabb and decide to void his extension), Tennessee (who already said they will release Vince Young), 49ers, and Vikings, they can force a team to trade up and thus acquire more picks) to get the #1 QB of the class. Even if the other teams don't buy what the Bengals are selling, the fact that the Bengals hold # 4 ahead of the Cardinals at # 5, they are in a great spot for a team looking to leapfrog Arizona to get their QB.

These are scenarios a good GM would be thinking about. We don't have a good GM, so if anybody here knows a way to get this idea to Mike Brown, please forward this post!!!!!!

Ya and with Luck returning good chance we miss out on alot Sexy Picks :|

[BengalPimp]

Ya and with Luck returning good chance we miss out on alot Sexy Picks :|

All the more reason to get additional picks

[kevnz]

Well I don't see a lot of hype for anyone and all of those teams you mentioned have plenty of holes to fill and they need their picks too. Yes it is possible to swing a deal, but I think even if the Bengals are keen it won't be an a wow of a trade.

[James_Brooks21]

Nobody is going to believe that the Bengals are possibly going to take a quarterback at their pick after Marvin Lewis came out and said that Palmer is definitely his quarterback. Luck messed up the Bengals pick in my opinion, I felt that we would pick between the loser of who would be picked first between Fairley and Bowers, now there is an outstanding chance that both would be gone by time the Bengals would pick. Now we will be picking someone like Robert Quinn who has not played in a year(oh lord) or A.J. Green, I'm never sold on a receiver that high. If they get rid of Chad and both Fairley and Bowers are gone I seriously see them pulling the string on A.J. Green. Luck didn't do us a favor unless we will have the number one pick in 2012 and get him then, that means the upcoming season will be terrible if that happens. Letting Joseph walk and signing Patrick Peterson would be a better choice than Green in my opinion.

[volcom69]

Nobody is going to believe that the Bengals are possibly going to take a quarterback at their pick after Marvin Lewis came out and said that Palmer is definitely his quarterback. Luck messed up the Bengals pick in my opinion, I felt that we would pick between the loser of who would be picked first between Fairley and Bowers, now there is an outstanding chance that both would be gone by time the Bengals would pick. Now we will be picking someone like Robert Quinn who has not played in a year(oh lord) or A.J. Green, I'm never sold on a receiver that high. If they get rid of Chad and both Fairley and Bowers are gone I seriously see them pulling the string on A.J. Green. Luck didn't do us a favor unless we will have the number one pick in 2012 and get him then, that means the upcoming season will be terrible if that happens. Letting Joseph walk and signing Patrick Peterson would be a better choice than Green in my opinion.

Give me Fairly if he is there, if not then they need to trade back and pick up as many picks as they can.

[HairOnFire]

I'm not buying the car you're trying to sell. Or rather, I may buy the car but I've rejected your sales pitch.

With Luck chosing to stay in school, Carolina, or whatever team selecting 1st overall, is far more likely to take a player like Bowers or Green. That may not bug you, but by removing one of those players from consideration each of the three teams drafting ahead of the Bengals are more likely to select players the Bengals might have been interested in.

But here's why I'm still interested in your car.

Even if the other teams don't buy what the Bengals are selling, the fact that the Bengals hold # 4 ahead of the Cardinals at # 5, they are in a great spot for a team looking to leapfrog Arizona to get their QB.

And there it is. Regardless of what happens ahead of the Bengals there's still a decent chance teams who need a QB will attempt to move ahead of other teams looking for QB's. That makes the Bengals #4 slot attractive for teams who target specific QB's. Buffalo. Arizona. Washington. Miami. San Francisco. Seattle. The list goes on and on. But that said, the #4 slot is no more valuable now than it was before Luck announced his decision because we're still talking about QB prospects who weren't projected to go higher. The trade value remains the same....unless the hype machines for Gabbert or Newton crank up.

[DC_Bengals_Fan]

The #4 slot is no more valuable now than it was before Luck announced his decision because we're still talking about QB prospects who weren't projected to go higher. The trade value remains the same....unless the hype machines for Gabbert or Newton crank up.

Ah, but it will. Because guess what? Now the Bengals sit in a position to trade the rights to (drumroll) *the best QB in the draft*. And with nothing else for the sports media to do in April (baseball? right), those guys will get more attention with Luck gone.

It may be purely psychological, but I could easily see it making a difference.

[BengalPimp]

But here's why I'm still interested in your car.

Even if the other teams don't buy what the Bengals are selling, the fact that the Bengals hold # 4 ahead of the Cardinals at # 5, they are in a great spot for a team looking to leapfrog Arizona to get their QB.

And there it is. Regardless of what happens ahead of the Bengals there's still a decent chance teams who need a QB will attempt to move ahead of other teams looking for QB's. That makes the Bengals #4 slot attractive for teams who target specific QB's. Buffalo. Arizona. Washington. Miami. San Francisco. Seattle. The list goes on and on. But that said, the #4 slot is no more valuable now than it was before Luck announced his decision because we're still talking about QB prospects who weren't projected to go higher. The trade value remains the same....unless the hype machines for Gabbert or Newton crank up.

I fully expect one of the QB's in this class to separate himslef from the rest, and yes, it will be because of the "Hype" . Personally I don't think Newton will make a good NFL QB, but he is the guy poised to impress the most at the Combine. We see it every year. A guy has a good combine, and shoots right up the board. This year without Luck, and there being no clear-cut choice as the best QB right now, 1 guy will definitely separate himself from the rest between now and the draft.

Keep in mind that you have to go back 11 years to the 2000 NFL Draft to find a year where there wasn't at least 1 QB selected among the Top 5 picks.

This is still a Pass Happy league with 12 QB's having thrown for over 3,500 yards this season.

Plant the seeds, keep the lines of communication open, and if they have a guy they have targeted already, don't let anyone know, and be willing to trade that pick if "their guy" isn't there...That pick has good trade value. Probably a little more now that Luck isn't coming out.

[HairOnFire]

The #4 slot is no more valuable now than it was before Luck announced his decision because we're still talking about QB prospects who weren't projected to go higher. The trade value remains the same....unless the hype machines for Gabbert or Newton crank up.

Ah, but it will. Because guess what? Now the Bengals sit in a position to trade the rights to (drumroll) *the best QB in the draft*. And with nothing else for the sports media to do in April (baseball? right), those guys will get more attention with Luck gone.

It may be purely psychological, but I could easily see it making a difference.

Why would it make a difference? It's still the same player and you're still qoing to qualify/sell the trade based upon the position played rather than the individual ranking.

For example, Todd McShay ranked Gabbert 20th overall yet projected him 5th. With Luck out of the picture does Gabbert suddenly become a better player? Does Newton? Does Mallett? And if not, why would the Bengals #4 slot become more valuable? What changed for the teams drafting behind the Bengals? Almost nothing, right? In fact, all that changed is Luck is no longer available so there's no need to consider trading into the 1st slot. So the value of that slot falls. But the value of another slot only rises if a team can consider taking a QB at that slot regardless of how he's ranked.

And there's the rub because whatever value the Bengals #4 slot had before hasn't changed a bit. The leverage is still based upon teams drafting behind the Bengals leapfrogging other QB starved teams yet still landing in the least expensive draft slot. So it's always been about the other guys.

[w8th]

I wonder,if a rookie wage scale is part of the CBA, if the pick gains value to a team wanting a QB. I would think a team needing a QB would be more willing to take a QB with a high pick - even if the QB wasn't a slam dunk sure thing (i.e. Luck). Why - less financial risk with (presumed) lower guaranteed signing bonus money.

[Kazkal]

The #4 slot is no more valuable now than it was before Luck announced his decision because we're still talking about QB prospects who weren't projected to go higher. The trade value remains the same....unless the hype machines for Gabbert or Newton crank up.

Ah, but it will. Because guess what? Now the Bengals sit in a position to trade the rights to (drumroll) *the best QB in the draft*. And with nothing else for the sports media to do in April (baseball? right), those guys will get more attention with Luck gone.

It may be purely psychological, but I could easily see it making a difference.

wasn't chad pennington the first QB selected in a draft at 26?

[HairOnFire]

The #4 slot is no more valuable now than it was before Luck announced his decision because we're still talking about QB prospects who weren't projected to go higher. The trade value remains the same....unless the hype machines for Gabbert or Newton crank up.

Ah, but it will. Because guess what? Now the Bengals sit in a position to trade the rights to (drumroll) *the best QB in the draft*. And with nothing else for the sports media to do in April (baseball? right), those guys will get more attention with Luck gone.

It may be purely psychological, but I could easily see it making a difference.

wasn't chad pennington the first QB selected in a draft at 26?

And back in the day Boomer was the first QB selected in that draft, but he fell to the 2nd round.

IMHO a weak draft crop at any position only goes so far in determining value, and projecting someone like Gabbert as a Top 5 player was already a stretch. Luck returning to school doesn't change that. However, it most certainly reduces the odds that a Bowers or Green will be available at #4.

[jjakq27]

I like the idea of trading down some. But no developmental picks or projects need apply. We need a day one pro-ready player with that pick that is an immediate upgrade to the team or a position group.

[DC_Bengals_Fan]

Why would it make a difference? It's still the same player and you're still qoing to qualify/sell the trade based upon the position played rather than the individual ranking.

Rationally? You're right. But I'd say in the time between now and April a whole lot of irrationality will transpire and a few kids of lesser talent will get a lot of cash because of it. Teams who need to sell tickets need to sell hope, and a shiny new 1st round QB helps do that. I think some team will talk themselves into these guys, and I think the absence of a top-flight prospect will move them up. QBs are always a different sort of commodity, and now there's one less.

Case in point? Alex Smith. Any other draft he's the 3rd-5th best QB and he's a late round (edit: late _first_ round) pick. He lucked into a (perceived) QB-poor draft (Rodgers was then seen as a Tedford clone) and shot up to #1.

For example, Todd McShay ranked Gabbert 20th overall yet projected him 5th. With Luck out of the picture does Gabbert suddenly become a better player? Does Newton? Does Mallett?

Nope. But, with the extra media attention, people will think they are. I think Newton might shoot up when he gets to the combine. He's going to play great in shorts. And with no Luck in the picture (especially at the combine), guess where the cameras go? And if you think GMs are immune to that, I think you overestimate them.

And there's the rub because whatever value the Bengals #4 slot had before hasn't changed a bit. The leverage is still based upon teams drafting behind the Bengals leapfrogging other QB starved teams yet still landing in the least expensive draft slot. So it's always been about the other guys.

I agree completely regarding intrinsic value. But again, you're operating under the premise that all actors are rational and do what is in their best interest from a football standpoint. I think that's only part of the picture when the draft is involved. And I still think that some GM, seeing a kid shoot up the draft, will react to the upward trend of a guy's stock and panic. Perhaps a team at #10 who thought Newton would fall to them really falls in love with him, sees his stock rise thanks to the extra media attention, and trades up?

There are so many fascinating phenomena involved with the draft - perceived consensus, artificial shortage, deception, etc - it completely makes a mockery of the rational market theory. Luck being gone will change what happens between the ears of a few GMs. Whether it helps the Bengals I don't know, but it will be interesting.

How about this - just because I like making predictions to make an ass of myself - if Newton wins the championship and plays well, and if he lights up the combine, he's in Carolina.

[BengalPimp]

Why would it make a difference? It's still the same player and you're still qoing to qualify/sell the trade based upon the position played rather than the individual ranking.

For example, Todd McShay ranked Gabbert 20th overall yet projected him 5th. With Luck out of the picture does Gabbert suddenly become a better player? Does Newton? Does Mallett? And if not, why would the Bengals #4 slot become more valuable? What changed for the teams drafting behind the Bengals? Almost nothing, right?

It will make a difference because this is the NFL Draft (95% hype with something like 147 million mock drafts out there) and the QB position (the most glorified, and perceived franchise saving position). Make no mistake, Andrew Luck is a good player, but not nearly as good as the Media made him out to be. His numbers just don't reflect that. Now that Luck has decided to return for another year, the Media will "Build" another QB, thus increasing his value and leading some sucker to select him higher than they should. Thats' the NFL, that's the Media, and that's the NFL Draft.

.......and before somebody says something about the comment that Luck is not as good as the media made him out to be, just look at the numbers. There were other QB's who had much better numbers than Luck. Luck's arm strength is average at best. The reason he completed 70% of his passes was because he threw a lot of short stuff (which sometimes players made longer)

Luck's stats for 2010 were 3,338 yards 32 Td's and 8 INT's 70.7 % comp

Good numbers, but there were players with better #'s , and Luck came off a 2009 season in which he threw for 2,575 yards 13 TD''s 4 INT's and only 53.6 completion %

Mallet threw for over 500 yards more at 3,869 same 32 TD's and 12 INT's with a 64.7 comp % and his 2009 stats were about the same with 3,627 yds 30 TD's 7 INT's

Cam Newton threw for 2,589 28 TD's 6 INT's 67.1% and then ran for another 1,409 and 20 TD's

Seriously, Lucks numbers werent that impressive.

If you want to see exactly what the media can do, just look at what they're doing with Blaine Gabbert......The same Blaine Gabbert you mentioned McShay had going 5th. Gabbert threw for 3,186 yards BUT ONLY HAD 16 TD'S......repeat only 16 TD's with 9 INT's

You can be damn sure the media and scouts will hype up those numbers above for the other QB's and come away with another "Can't Miss" QB...funniest terms in sports by the way "Can't Miss"

[BengalPimp]

Also, Luck screwed himself, because the only way he's the # 1 pick next year is if Landry Jones decides to stay in all 4 years.....

Seriously, Landry Jones is SICK 4,718 yards 38 TD's 12 INT's 65.6 comp % as a Sophmore.....Absolute Stud

[Sea Ray]

Well I don't see a lot of hype for anyone and all of those teams you mentioned have plenty of holes to fill and they need their picks too. Yes it is possible to swing a deal, but I think even if the Bengals are keen it won't be an a wow of a trade.

I can see Ryan Mallett or Jake Locker having a "Jeff George-like" workout and shooting up the charts. Didn't some idiot team once pick a guy named Akili Smith this high?

[DC_Bengals_Fan]

Also, Luck screwed himself, because the only way he's the # 1 pick next year is if Landry Jones decides to stay in all 4 years.....

Seriously, Landry Jones is SICK 4,718 yards 38 TD's 12 INT's 65.6 comp % as a Sophmore.....Absolute Stud

Two other things: unless Luck knows something we don't (and he may), he's looking at a new system with a new coaching staff. That's a roll of the dice at best. Also, he's looking at the very real possibility of a rookie wage scale. And even that ignores the possibility that he might just have a worse year next year, might get hurt, or even that the momentum of media hype moves on to a newer story.

I think it's great that he's staying in school for all the right reasons, but this has to hurt him financially.

[ArmyBengal]

Look what happened to Locker. Had he not returned to Washington this year, he would have easily been a top 10 pick in the last draft. Now ?? Everything people loved about him the season before are now questioning. In all honesty, there was absolutely NOTHING I liked about Locker this year when watching him play. I don't question Luck, but he's taking a chance.

That being said, I don't think him going back helps the Bengals situation anymore than it hurts it, but I'm leaning towards hurt.

We weren't going to take Luck regardless of what people think about Carson. Rant all you want, but it wasn't happening. Him being in the draft simply pushes another player further to where the Bengals are picking. The three players that stand out to me sitting at #4 are Fairly, Peterson, and Green after Luck was taken at #1.

With that not happening now, I don't see the Panthers being able to trade down and will now take one of the three I mentioned earlier and I'm thinking Green. If they take Green, I could easily see both Peterson and Fairly being gone before #4. I'm not a fan of Bowers and won't look at the player available at the #4 spot as a value pick at all. From that scenario, I think it hurts the Bengals.

What I don't think has changed is the trade value of the Bengals spot at #4 due to the needs of the teams below us and them wanting to jump each other. They won't have to jump any further than #4 and Luck staying or not doesn't change that, as I agree that there will simply be another QB that gets pimped by the media so hard, they will be taken in the top 5 (Mallett, Newton, Gabbert, whomever).

For those willing to say we don't need Peterson because we have depth at CB, I simply offer up that most think his best position in the NFL will be at safety and God knows what we have at that position SUCKS. If we put a playmaker of his abilities with JJoe and Hall, I'm liking what we could see. If JJoe goes down (as we always see for at least 4 games) you have a backup. Not only that, there is still npo movement with JJoe this year and Hall is up next year.

Things will still most cetainly will change and we are still waiting on Green...

[HairOnFire]

Why would it make a difference? It's still the same player and you're still qoing to qualify/sell the trade based upon the position played rather than the individual ranking.

Rationally? You're right.

Of course I'm right. And the reason I'm right isn't because of the brilliance of my rant, but rather....because your rant is based completely upon the irrational. It's core concept is based upon teams not only doing the irrational, but knowingly and willingly doing the irrational.

QBs are always a different sort of commodity, and now there's one less.

But in reality there's only one less QB to choose from for Carolina, making the value of their draft slot reduced. All of the other teams needing QB's were always limited to other choices unless they agreed to trade into Carolinas spot, and that only happens if Carolina agrees to trade out...which they already admitted they wouldn't do if Luck declared. So for teams drafting behind the Bengals it's always been about the other QB's and the perceived need to leapfrog over their competition for those players. And in that regard very little has changed. Whatever was true before is still true now with one glaring exception. That being, players like Green and Bowers are now less likely to be available at #4, and that doesn't help the Bengals.

I think Newton might shoot up when he gets to the combine. He's going to play great in shorts.

IMHO he plays great in pads. In fact, while I may not think he's worthy of consideration at #1 overall, or Top5 for that matter, I've got to admit I don't understand the amount of criticism directed at Newton's playing ability.

I agree completely regarding intrinsic value. But again, you're operating under the premise that all actors are rational and do what is in their best interest from a football standpoint.

And once again you're operating under the premise that irrational decisions are sometimes in a teams best interests. As if the decision to move into the 4th slot to select the 10th best player because he happens to play QB is exactly the same as moving into the 4th slot to select the 20th ranked player because he happens to play QB.

How about this - just because I like making predictions to make an ass of myself - if Newton wins the championship and plays well, and if he lights up the combine, he's in Carolina.

I can't rule it out. But that said, all you're doing is admitting things have changed drastically for Carolina. To show how things have somehow gotten better for the Bengals now that luck isn't coming out you'd have to argue that the Bengals #4 slot is suddenly more valuable to teams interested in Gabbert, Mallett, Locker, etc.

[HairOnFire]

It will make a difference because this is the NFL Draft (95% hype with something like 147 million mock drafts out there) and the QB position (the most glorified, and perceived franchise saving position).

Well, there's the real NFL draft and then there's everything else.

Media hype sells draft guides and website hits, not players.

[HairOnFire]

Two other things: unless Luck knows something we don't (and he may), he's looking at a new system with a new coaching staff. That's a roll of the dice at best.

It's been reported Harbaugh's contract offer to stay is far better than what the 49'ers offered. Somewhere in the area of 5-6 million per. And Miami is said to be willing to pay more than 7 million to the right guy, but despite their interest there's no guarantee they'll offer nearly that much to any college coach.

I can easily see Harbaugh staying put unless he's adamant about testing himself in the NFL.

[DC_Bengals_Fan]

Of course I'm right. And the reason I'm right isn't because of the brilliance of my rant, but rather....because your rant is based completely upon the irrational. It's core concept is based upon teams not only doing the irrational, but knowingly and willingly doing the irrational.

Have you met...people? They do dumb crap all the time. Extended warranties. Lottery tickets. Rent-to-own. Those 'healing bracelets' on TV. Economics is full of tales of people who do things that are not in their best interest. One common cause is irrational exuberance, another is perceived shortage. Witness: 90s tech bubble. Witness: beanie babies. Witness: Ditka offering his entire draft to Mike Brown who refused (who's the bigger idiot there)?

You dramatically underestimate the human element that is present in decision making. People often aren't good at making sane decisions. They don't think they're irrational - they just are.

IMHO [Newton] plays great in pads. In fact, while I may not think he's worthy of consideration at #1 overall, or Top5 for that matter, I've got to admit I don't understand the amount of criticism directed at Newton's playing ability.

I would tentatively agree - I think he's been hurt by other spread offense QBs who flamed out. But just wait - I bet you he puts up a 40 time that'll make your jaw drop. And while we know he's fast now, we don't have a number. And that number (4.4?) is what everyone will repeat for two months until some team starts to talk themselves into him.

And once again you're operating under the premise that irrational decisions are sometimes in a teams best interests.

Nope, I'm not, primarily because that makes no sense. I'm saying some team's gonna f*** up and draft a QB too early based on media hype.

I can't rule [Newton to Carolina] out. But that said, all you're doing is admitting things have changed drastically for Carolina.

That's true enough. So let's say Carolina passes on him. I think it's more likely he goes #2-4 now than it was when Luck was in play, simply because his perceived value will increase even though his actual value won't. Football writers need something to write about between now and April, and I think someone benefits from Luck not being there.

Now I will say this just for clarity in case it wasn't obvious - this either hurts the Bengals by 1 pick (as claimed), *or* it gives them the ability to trade. Even under my theory, Mike could simply choose to exercise the pick even if he got a great offer (history there, right?). Or a team might decide to do a deal with Buffalo at #3 instead (though even that would help us since it would move a QB into the top 3).

Do consider that the Az Cardinals pick #5. I think it's outrageously likely they take the best QB on the board. That really does put the Bengals in a good spot if they choose to exercise it. Lots of teams need QBs this year. The teams at 1,3,5,7,8,10, and 12 don't have starters (or at least capable ones). That's part of why I think the shortage effect may also help.

How about this for fun - I'd love to ship the #4 to Washington for their #10 and a 2012 first. C'mon Danny Boy.

[James_Brooks21]

How about this for fun - I'd love to ship the #4 to Washington for their #10 and a 2012 first. C'mon Danny Boy.