kurgan's final 2009 Mock Draft

[kurgan74]

My final 2009 Mock Draft

1. Detroit Lions – QB Matthew Stafford, Georgia

2. St. Louis Rams – OT Jason Smith, Baylor

3. Kansas City Chiefs – DE Tyon Jackson, LSU

4. Seattle Seahawks – LB Aaron Curry, Wake Forest

5. Cleveland Browns – WR Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech

6. Cincinnati Bengals – OT Andre Smith, Alabama

7. Oakland Raiders - OT Eugene Monroe, Virginia

8. Jacksonville Jaguars – WR Jeremy Maclin, Missouri

9. Green Bay Packers – ST BJ Raji, Boston College

10. San Francisco ‘49ers – QB Mark Sanchez, USC

11. Buffalo Bills – OT Michael Oher, Mississippi

12. Denver Broncos – DE Brian Orakpo, Texas

13. Washington Redskins – ILB Rey Maualuga, USC

14. New Orleans Saints – RB Chris Wells, Ohio State

15. Houston Texans – OLB Brian Cushing, USC

16. San Diego Chargers – RB Knowshon Moreno, Georgia

17. New York Jets – QB Josh Freeeman, Kansas State

18. Denver Broncos – CB Malcolm Jenkins, Ohio State

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DE Robert Ayers, Tennessee

20. Detroit Lions – OLB Aaron Maybin, Penn State

21. Philadelphia Eagles – WR Darius Heyward-Bey, Maryland

22. Minnesota Vikings – OT William Beatty, Connecticut

23. New England Patriots – CB Vonatae Davis, Illinois

24. Atlanta Falcons – TE Brandon Pettigrew, Oklahoma State

25. Maimi Dolphins – CB Darius Butler, Connecticut

26. Baltimore Ravens – CB Sean Smith, Utah

27. Indianapolis Colts – DT Peria Jerry, Mississippi

28. Buffalo Bills – OLB Clay Matthews, USC

29. New Yourk Giants – WR Kenny Britt, Rutgers

30. Tennesse Titans – DT Evander Hood, Missouri

31. Arizona Cardinals – RB Donald Brown, Connecticut

32. Pittsburgh Steelers – OT Max Unger, Oregon

Bengals Only Rd 2 - 7

2nd Rd James Laurinitis – ILB, Ohio State – all signs point to a slide on draft day.

3rd Rd Antione Caldwell – C , Alabama

3rd Rd Phil Loadholt, OT Oaklahoma

4th Rd Ramses Barden, WR Cal – Poly

5th Rd Matt Shaughnessy, DE Wisconsin

6th Rd Kevin Huber, P Cincinnati

7th Rd Nader Abdallah, DT Ohio State

7th Rd Brandon Southerland, FB Georgia

7th Rd Arian Foster, RB Tennessee

[ArmyBengal]

I would love to see Laurinaitis fall to us in the second, but I'm not a fan of Loadholt in the least.

[Kazkal]

Late 3rd though depending which RT's available wouldn't mind him outside that I like the draft alot.

My only knock would be Brannan Southerland just from what I read he's not a dominate lead blocker which is what I wanna see us get in a FB...

[derekshank]

I would love to see Laurinaitis fall to us in the second, but I'm not a fan of Loadholt in the least.

Loadholt would be a great pick in the 3rd. He's a G in the NFL... but he'll be a good one.

[Kazkal]

I would love to see Laurinaitis fall to us in the second, but I'm not a fan of Loadholt in the least.

Loadholt would be a great pick in the 3rd. He's a G in the NFL... but he'll be a good one.

Give him a year to develop behind bobby

Collins-Whitworth-Caldwell-Loadholt-Andre Smith and run the ball down the other teams throats...

[ArmyBengal]

As a Guard, got it and agree with the pick then. Seeing him on an island would only equal more blood oozing from Carson's nose...

[Wraith]

If Monroe is available we would be idiotic to pass him over for Andre Smith, Monroe has better technique, he has no character concerns, he is a pure Left Tackle which is the most difficult position on the offensive line.

Yes to Laurenitis, Loadholt as a Guard in the 3rd, Huber, Barden, and a big yest to Caldwell.

No to Shaughnessy he is a big time character concern and never played to potential at Wisconsin.

[derekshank]

If Monroe is available we would be idiotic to pass him over for Andre Smith, Monroe has better technique, he has no character concerns, he is a pure Left Tackle which is the most difficult position on the offensive line.

I don't get this. Andre Smith had one... I repeat ONE game where he struggled against speed rushers against Florida. And this wasn't nearly as much about his technique as it was about good pass rushing scheme. The DE's went inside while Safeties and the MLB came off the edge. It made him look bad, but he still kept them away from the QB, despite being on his own to block 2 speed rushers at a time.

Does he have more work to do than Monroe as an immediate pass blocker? Sure, but he is light on his feet and agile enough to get it done. He has way more upside than Monroe, and prior to the combine, there wasn't a person who thought Smith would fall out of the top 5, nor that Monroe would be drafted in the top 10. What does that tell you about their on the field production?

[Wraith]

IMHO the difference has nothing to do with physical skill and everything to do with bust factor, Andre Smith has indicated a number of time this offseason that he is not emotionally mature enough to handle the bright lights and the kind of money he will be thrown as the #6 pick. Yes Smith has more ability than Monroe but he could also throw it all away and be out of the league in a couple of years, with Monroe you will plop him down as your starting LT and keep him there for 10 years, Monroe is articulate, has never had a whiff of problems and was good enough to keep the #15 pick in the draft last season (and starting LT for the Kansas City Chiefs) at LG. Monroe has near perfect technique and great feet, can slide and mirror better than anyone else in this draft and is a no brainer pick for the Bengals if he is available. Eugene Monroe grades out higher than Jason Smith on film IMHO and it is merely potential which would have J. Smith ahead of Monroe.

Oh and prior to the combine Monroe was ranked by most scouting services as a top 5 pick, it was Jason Smith that came out of nowhere.

[Kazkal]

IMHO the difference has nothing to do with physical skill and everything to do with bust factor, Andre Smith has indicated a number of time this offseason that he is not emotionally mature enough to handle the bright lights and the kind of money he will be thrown as the #6 pick.

-Why?

-Because he was talking to a gent before the sugarbowl? such a horrible guy

-Or he left the combine early thinking it would help him instead of hurt him? WOW The guy is going to be the next pacman jones

-Or how about because he ran with his shirt off even though you know he's fat yet it's not like a shirt is going to hide that look at raji or any of the heavier dudes...

[Wraith]

Why? He spoke with an agent before the bowl game which hurt his team and probably cost his team the bowl game. He stood up at least 14 teams blowing off their job interviews at the NFL combine which indicates a resistance to authority, ask yourself this question would you hire a guy who had a job interview and didn't bother to show up and didn't bother to call and explain why he couldn't show up. He has hired three agents so far this offseason.

Isn't that enough? You don't have to be a criminal to be a bust in the NFL. This guy is another Mike Williams IMHO and thus Eugene Monroe is the safer pick.

[derekshank]

Monroe is articulate, has never had a whiff of problems and was good enough to keep the #15 pick in the draft last season (and starting LT for the Kansas City Chiefs) at LG.

I don't really care how articulate he is. I care how he plays football. And if you want to talk about past seasons as the judge, A. Smith is far superior.

Eugene Monroe grades out higher than Jason Smith on film IMHO and it is merely potential which would have J. Smith ahead of Monroe.

The same exact thing can be said in favor of A. Smith over Monroe... with one exception. Smith has for more potential than Monroe.

Oh and prior to the combine Monroe was ranked by most scouting services as a top 5 pick, it was Jason Smith that came out of nowhere.

Well... I never said Monroe came out of nowhere. I just said he wasn't a top 10 pick. This continues to stay in my thinking because I have a seriously hard time believing that 3 of the top 6 players in the draft play OT.

No... prior to the combine, Monroe was the 3rd best OT, behind A. Smith and Oher. The reason? He's quick. He's agile against speed rushers... but he has serious problems in the strength department. Say what you want about A. Smith being less nimble or lacking Monroe's technique, but you'll never see A. Smith get bull rushed. Never. Monroe? Different story.

Monroe doesn't sniff A. Smith in the run blocking category, and Smith can easily be taught better footwork technique for pass protection.

[Wraith]

Prior to the draft Monroe was the #2 ranked OT on most sites, Oher was starting to slide as from the Senior bowl. Jason Smith was the 3rd or 4th ranked OT prior to the combine. So no there were only 2 OTs in the top five. Intelligence is a primary attribute of any offensive line, the ability to learn from mistakes, the ability to comprehend a playbook, the ability to learn from film study to recognize tendancies and correctly predict defensive schemes.

Here is a simple chart

Pass Protection: + Monroe

Run Blocking: + A. Smith

Intelligence: + Monroe

Not Being a Complete Flake: +++++Monroe

Andre Smith is a RT and will always be a RT, Eugene Monroe is a LT and will always be a LT. A strong LT will keep our all-pro QB from getting killed, we have a good RT prospect on our roster, a LT will help us keep Whitworth at his best position LG. I really can't believe we are still having this discussion but this is it in a nutshell. Andre Smith is a spectacular talent but the NFL is awash with OTs with incredible talent bombing out because their heads were not on straight. This is the major problem with Andre Smith otherwise they would grade out equally. Just to support my position here are pastings from a nuber of draft sites (free content only)

Sports Illustrated:

Player School Team Round Pick Grade

Jason Smith Baylor 4.33

Eugene Monroe Virginia 4.26

Michael Oher Mississippi 4.15

Eben Britton Arizona 3.94

William Beatty Connecticut 3.92

Phil Loadholt Oklahoma 3.89

Great Blue North Report

Jason Smith 6-5, 309 5.22 Baylor

Eugene Monroe 6-5, 309 5.23 Virginia

*Andre Smith 6-4, 332 5.25 Alabama

Michael Oher 6-4.5, 309 5.23 Mississippi

*Eben Britton 6-6, 309 5.16 Arizona

Football's Future

Tackle

Jason Smith, Baylor

Eugene Monroe, Virginia

Andre Smith, Alabama, Jr.

Michael Oher, Ole Miss

Eben Britton, Arizona, Jr.

Walter Football

Jason Smith, Baylor

Height: 6-5. Weight: 309.

Projected 40 Time: 5.10.

Combine 40 Time: 5.14.

Benchx225: 33. Arm: 33 3/4.

Projected Round (2009): Top 4 Pick.

2/22/09: One of the reasons I had Michael Crabtree going to the Rams was because I believed there was no left tackle worthy of No. 1 overall (or No. 2) consideration. Well, that changed after the 2009 NFL Combine. Jason Smith established himself as the top tackle in this class, and has even emerged as a candidate for the Lions, though I still believe the pick will be Matt Stafford.

2/21/09: Aside from Alex Boone, Jason Smith put up more reps at the 2009 NFL Combine than any other tackle (33). His stock continues to rise.

2/19/09: Jason Smith weighed in at 6-5, 309. It's difficult to imagine him falling past Jacksonville.

1/6/09: Considering the value of offensive tackles and Jason Smith's hot draft stock, it'll be a shock if he eludes the top 15. An All-America third-teamer.

11/1/08: The ultra-athletic Jason Smith has been a consistent force on Baylor's front. There's a possibility he goes toward the first round.

5/24/08: Earned an All-Big XII honorable mention last year. A former tight end, so you know the athletic ability is there.

Eugene Monroe, Virginia

Height: 6-5. Weight: 312.

Projected 40 Time: 5.19.

Combine 40 Time: 5.16.

Benchx225: 23. Arm: 33 7/8.

Projected Round (2009): Top 6 Pick.

1/6/09: It'll take a small mircale to move Eugene Monroe, an All-America second-teamer, out of the top 10.

11/1/08: Eugene Monroe has been instrumental in Virginia's unexpected success this season. He'll be the second pure left tackle off the board, in all likelihood.

5/24/08: Eugene Monroe played a lot better than he did in 2006. He didn't allow any sacks last season, earning himself an honorable mention on the All-ACC team.

2007: Eugene Monroe had big shoes to fill, as he stepped in for D'Brickashaw Ferguson last year. He didn't fare too well, although reports are he looked solid in the spring.

Michael Oher, Ole Miss

Height: 6-5. Weight: 309.

Projected 40 Time: 5.19.

Combine 40 Time: 5.32.

Pro Day 40 Time: 5.16.

Benchx225: 23. Arm: 33 1/2.

Projected Round (2009): Top 6-16 Pick.

3/29/09: Michael Oher promised us a great 40 time, and he finally came through at his Pro Day, running a 5.16. It's hard to imagine him falling into the bottom half of Round 1.

2/22/09: Michael Oher has slipped a bit, thanks to concerns about his intelligence and consistency in pass protection. I can't see the Chargers passing on him if he falls to No. 16.

William Beatty, Connecticut

Height: 6-6. Weight: 307.

Projected 40 Time: 5.02.

Combine 40 Time: 5.12.

Benchx225: 27. Arm: 34 3/4.

Projected Round (2009): 1.

2/19/09: William Beatty put on 16 pounds since the end of the season. He seems to have solidified his first-round status... for now.

1/6/09: William Beatty's stock has shot through the roof along with running back Donald Brown's. The anchor of Connecticut's offensive front, Beatty was an All-Big East first-teamer.

Eben Britton, Arizona

Height: 6-6. Weight: 309.

Projected 40 Time: 5.05.

Combine 40 Time: 5.15.

Benchx225: 24. Arm: 32 3/4.

Projected Round (2009): 1.

2/22/09: Had the second-shortest arms at the 2009 NFL Combine.

1/6/09: Eben Britton, who recently declared for the 2009 NFL Draft, has seen his stock soar ever since Arizona moved him over to left tackle.

7/27/08: An athletic tackle who earned a spot on the All-Pac-10 second team as a sophomore.

Andre Smith, Alabama

Height: 6-4. Weight: 325.

Projected 40 Time: 5.26.

Combine 40 Time: DNP.

Benchx225: . Arm: 35 3/8.

Projected Round (2009): 1-2.

3/11/09: Andre Smith "trimmed down" to 325, but observers seemed to think that he looked sluggish at his Pro Day. Smith will need a miracle to make it into the top 10, and his first-round status is in serious doubt. 2/21/09: Andre Smith will not work out at the Combine, citing that he's out of shape. Out of shape? Why is Smith out of shape? Isn't it his job to stay in shape?

2/19/09: Andre Smith weighed in at 332 pounds at the Combine. He'll have to play right tackle or guard in the NFL, so his draft range looks to be No. 6 (Bengals need tackle help) to No. 13 (the Redskins will not pass on an elite right tackle.

1/4/08: Andre Smith was suspended for the game against national champion Utah, but only because he talked to an agent. A few days later, Smith declared. This will not affect his draft stock.

11/1/08: Less athletic than Michael Oher and Eugene Monroe, but still very talented.

5/24/08: A unanimous All-SEC first-teamer, Andre Smith has started every game in his career at Alabama.

I would include ESPN into my analysis but their content is all for pay. I cannot find a single draft site that grades Andre Smith ahead of Eugene Monroe, maybe you will have better luck but I doubt it.

[ArmyBengal]

The link below is from a list of the top pass rushers in the 2009 draft that was dated 14Nov2008.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft09/colu...&id=3700830

Click on it and scroll down to Todd McShay's top 32 in the 2009 NFL draft.

Andre Smith sat atop the draft board and pretty much stayed there until the combine mess. Jason Smith wasn't even thought to be top 32 and that included talent that didn't even declare for the draft like Bradford, Cody, Selvie, and Mays.

I just don't get all the bashing of Smith's on field production due to his poor (yes I can admit that) decisions at the combine.

He's never had legal problems as has been suggested either.

[Wraith]

Look, I am not bashing his on the field production. This has everything to do with the investment the team is making in a kid who has a significant risk. If the Bengals were picking #21 and a talent like this was available at a need position, you pull the trigger. But IF two players of similar grade are available, and though their games are different these two players carry a similar grade based off their on-field production after all Monroe has given up two sacks in two years as a full time starter and Brandon Albert who was the #15 pick of the KC Chiefs and is now their starting LT was forced to play LG because Monroe is a better LT and Monroe was voted best blocker in the ACC last year by the coaches and is the only Virginia Cavalier to record over 100 knockdown blocks in a single season and 16 of his blocks sprung a guy for a touchdown (the Cavaliers had 26 rushing touchdowns all season), you go with the player who carries a lesser risk and that player is Monroe so IF both players are available at #6 you pick Monroe. IF Monroe and Jason Smith are gone Andre Smith carries the next best grade at the tackle position and you have a choice to go with that guy, go with a different guy at a different position or trade down if you can find value. There should be no choice when it comes to an evaluation between Eugene Monroe and Andre Smith, Monroe is the better investment which is not to say the Andre Smith is a bad player just a bad risk, he is in fact a very good dominating player.

As to that ranking from November 2008, Ebon Britton is the second ranked OT and he has slid because of an evaluation of his talent not character, by the time of the Senior Bowl Monroe was ranked the second best Tackle Prospect in the draft behind Andre Smith

To Quote ol' Helmet Head himself Mel Kiper in his latest mock draft: "6. Cincinnati Bengals (4-11-1)

Andre Smith, OT, Alabama: Smith has to manage his weight in order to remain on the left side. If he doesn't, he's a mauler at right tackle who could really assist the running game and do the job at that spot in pass protection. Hopefully, he'll maximize his skills in the NFL by paying more attention to detail. If he doesn't, you're looking at a major bust."

[ArmyBengal]

Don't get me wrong, I think if Monroe is there, the Bengals are SURELY going to take him. If for no other reason than they don't want to have to hear the media bashing that will come before they even finish calling his name at the podium.

I understand it, understand the concerns, and would still be more than ok if A. Smith was the pick. Just me...

As to the list of player from Nov2008, I could care less who was rated above who to be honest and merely was pointing out Andre Smith was considered the best player in the draft for many months until a poor decision on his part that had nothing to do with what he does on the field. Nothing more...

[derekshank]

Andre Smith was considered the best player in the draft for many months until a poor decision on his part that had nothing to do with what he does on the field.

There is it.

Had we been told in January that A. Smith would fall to #6 we would have all wet ourselves with joy. Now, people don't want him even at #6. Why? Because he left the combine early and looks fat.

[derekshank]

There should be no choice when it comes to an evaluation between Eugene Monroe and Andre Smith, Monroe is the better investment which is not to say the Andre Smith is a bad player just a bad risk, he is in fact a very good dominating player.

This is where you and I part ways. I understand your concern when it comes to a safe investment... but your concerns about A. Smith are silly at best. Monroe on the other hand has some serious problems when facing bull-rushers (something he will see a steady dose of in the AFCN) and has some injury and durability concerns as well... not to mention that virtually every scouting report I read on the guy says he lacks intensity in his play. Every one of these issues deal with the way he plays the game ON THE FIELD.

A. Smith on the other hand for all the complaints about his struggles against speed rushers gave up only one sack playing in the super-competitive SEC. Everyone understands that he is far and away the best run blocker in this draft, and plays with more intensity at OT than any draft has seen in years.

All I'm saying is that his risk assessment has been overblown. Does he lack some maturity? Sure... but I'm not hiring him to watch my kids. The Bengals will be paying him to play football. Something that he is better at than Eugene Monroe.

[Kazkal]

Starting to set myself up be disappointed if we take tackle who don't have large moobies lol.

[ArmyBengal]

I don't think it's a matter of being disappointed, as I feel we will still get an impact player even if his name isn't Andre Smith.

I just feel he is worth the risk that I am aware exists and feel he will continue being the player he was during college.

I am also more than willing to accept the fact he may in fact suck balls and I could be very wrong.

Then again, that can be said for every "prospect" that hasn't taken a single snap at this point huh ??

[Wraith]

Problems facing bull rushers, he isn't playing inside you know, most of the time he is going to get a steady dose of James Harrison and Terrell Suggs who even in their best days aren't going to try to bull rush a 316 lb man. Fox Sports has Eugene Monroe listed as their top prospect over all in their latest installment of their top 100, Pro Football Weekly says in their synopsis "Has few if any major flaws". Question, how many times in a game (not including Senior Bowl practices which are setup for the defensive player to win because it is a one on one exercise not a game environment) has Eugene Monroe been beaten by a bull rush? Since he has only allowed 2 sacks in his last 30 games....not very many. AS for attitude, you can say that about most O-Linemen, Orlando Pace was soft as butter as was Lincoln Kennedy but both of them will make it to Canton one day add to that "soft" list Willie Anderson and Anthony Munoz. Monroe has a passion for football and that come across in his conversations and his play he takes pride in his technique which means he practices the heck out of it. Monroe is the best pass protector in this draft, isn't that what we have been clamboring for? As for injuries, his knees are a concern but he hasn't had an issue since spring practice of 2007.

[kingwilly]

Andre Smith was considered the best player in the draft for many months until a poor decision on his part that had nothing to do with what he does on the field.

There is it.

Had we been told in January that A. Smith would fall to #6 we would have all wet ourselves with joy. Now, people don't want him even at #6. Why? Because he left the combine early and looks fat.

there you have it.

All-SEC...toughest conf in college ball.

Probably the highest upside in the draft.

[derekshank]

Problems facing bull rushers, he isn't playing inside you know, most of the time he is going to get a steady dose of James Harrison and Terrell Suggs who even in their best days aren't going to try to bull rush a 316 lb man.

If it's a weakness, the Ravens and Steelers will exploit it. And since they both play 3-4, they have oversized DE's who will not have trouble bullrushing Monroe... especially with Hampton and Ngata commanding double teams.

Question, how many times in a game (not including Senior Bowl practices which are setup for the defensive player to win because it is a one on one exercise not a game environment) has Eugene Monroe been beaten by a bull rush?

Question, how many DE's has he faced that he doesn't outweigh by 60 lbs? That will change quickly in the NFL... and if it is already well known that he can be bullrushed, my guess is that when he faces Bannon (310 lbs) Aaron Smith (298 lbs) and Corey Williams (320 lbs) in 6 games next season, pushing Monroe around will be exactly the plan.

And while Monroe might be the best pure pass blocker in the draft, that won't keep him from being pushed around in the run game. Frankly, that seems like a much bigger deal than the speed rusher that might get around Whitworth or Collins 2 or 3 plays a game.

I haven't denied that A. Smith is a risk... but you have yet to admit that Monroe is one as well. And when you look at the risks, we're talking about a guy who might be a little flaky compared to guy whose risks are all on the field.

You're rolling the dice no matter who you pick from #1 all the way down to the 7th round. Some might seem like bigger risks than others, but for my part, I'll take the guy who has shown to be the better player on the field against stiffer competition.

[Wraith]

I haven't admitted it because I think your wrong. I can't find a single piece of game film where Eugene Monroe had trouble handling anyone. You know you can find game film with Orakpo abusing Loadholt and Florida decimating both Alabama's and Oklahoma's offensive line and point to it and say "there is a weakness in his game". With Monroe? I see nothing, his technique is virtually spotless which means (because noone has superb technique naturally) he is willing to work on the holes of his game, I think the bullrush weakness comes almost exclusively from Senior Bowl practice which in those drills the defensive players have an unnatural advantage by having more space to manuever. Just like Monroe will have to adjust his game to the NFL so will Andre Smith and I believe Monroe will work harder at that adjustment than Smith based upon his character and the work ethic he has shown in college. Andre Smith has sloppy technique but he makes up for it by being physically superior to just about everyone he faces, talk about something that won't translate in the next level.

This is going to get me flamed but I see ALOT of Anthony Munoz in Eugene Monroe, they are actually very similar players. Both had knee injuries that hampered their college career, both are students of the game that take their craft seriously, both are very intelligent, they are of similar size. I am in no way projecting Monroe will have the same career as Munoz but that template has work well for us before. You say that you can't teach strength and I say you can't teach work ethic so we are at an impasse.

I could be completely wrong, we could be talking about Monroe busting out in five years and Andre Smith heading to Canton ten years from now, but IF Monroe and Andre Smith are both available (and I pray that this actually happens because it means that the Bengals are less likely to make a collossal mistake drafting Crabtree, Maybin, or god forbid Beanie Wells) you have to select Monroe first because of the whole package and the risks drafting Andre Smith poses.

Checkout this youtube clip it show Monroe against USC, UConn (Brown), Wake, Richmond (Sidbury), and Ga Tech (Michael Johnson) LINK: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qna40zT5FVk

[derekshank]

I haven't admitted it because I think your wrong. I can't find a single piece of game film where Eugene Monroe had trouble handling anyone.

Whatever dude. I'm not going to debate you anymore. You are clearly blinded by your man crush. Eugene Monroe is the next Munoz, and no matter how many scouts talk about his lack of fire, his refusal to finish players off, his lower body weakness, his lack of focus resulting in penalties, his lack of ability in run blocking and his durability concerns, you seem to think it's a slam dunk sure thing.

If he was who you think he was, he'd be going #1 overall. But he's not... because he's not even the best at his own position.