Build for 2010 anyone?

[derekshank]

All I am saying is the drop off between a top 5 or 6 DE and a top 20 DE is very significant. The drop off between a top 5 or 6 OT and a top 20 OT is a lot less.

What is this opinion based on?

OK let's just take a look at the drafts from 2003-2006 and that will answer that question, you can see the difference in the talent level of the DE based on where they are drafted. I am only including the first 22 picks because I doubt we will pick lower than that.

2003- 13th pick- Ty Warren (Solid DE)

14th- Michael Haynes (Who?)

15th- Jerome McDoogle (OK)

2004- 18- Will Smith (Good but injury prone)

20- Udeze (Washout)

2005- 18- Erasmus James- BUST

20- Marcus Spears- Decent player

2006- 1- Mario Williams (SACK MASTER)

20- Tambi Hali (Bum)

The only player taken very high turned out to be a pro bowler, the rest are mediocre at best outside warren.

If you examine the drafts and look at all the OT's taken later than 10 in those drafts they are just as successful as some of the OL taken in the top 10.

Also, I want the Bengals to get a Center in round 2 and get a FA to fill the gap for a year. I am not saying disregard the line, I am just saying after we get our Oline fixed they will want to address Dline and then we may be looking at a pick in the teens which just isn't adequate enough to find the superstar Dlinemen we need.

So because Mario was taken with the #1, that's why he's a pro-bowler? I think you have it backwards my friend. He's a rare talent, which is why DE's don't usually go in the top 5, let alone #1.

But let's look at the last two years to complete your list.

3 DE's were taken in the top 10 of the '08 draft. Only 7.5 sacks between the three of them.

In the '07 draft Gaines Adams was taken with the #4 overall pick. Currently there are debates in Buccaneer forums about his possible "bust" status. Reminds me a lot of Justin Smith. Not a bad player... but nothing to warrant a #4 selection. Jamaal Anderson was taken with the #8 pick. He's started 31 games and has 2 career sacks.

Drafting a DE with the #6 pick is anything but a lock on a future pro-bowler.

OT's however have a very low bust rate. Historically there are incredibly few O-Linemen taken in the top 10 that end up as busts. The only one in recent memory is Robert Gallery. The fact is that O-Linemen are very safe picks in the top 10 as opposed to QB's and DT's who have incredibly high bust rates. DE falls somewhere in between... but still a much riskier pick than an OT.

Of course, I'm not saying the Bengals MUST take an OT with the #6 pick. And I likely won't be complaining at all if they decided to address the defensive line or Linebacker for that matter. But I don't see sound logic in taking a DE with the top 6 pick just because you could always address the O-Line later. I say take the highest rated player on the board. If it's Orakpo, then so be it - but I'm doubting it'll be him.

[agreen_112]

Gotta go LB or OL with the first pick.. Malugula will be a pro-bowler. If he's available, we'd be stupid NOT to grab him.

[HairOnFire]

Drafting a DE with the #6 pick is anything but a lock on a future pro-bowler.

OT's however have a very low bust rate.

This touches on something that irks me more than a little. Simply put, I feel it's the lower bust rate that most Bengal fans find impossible to get beyond.

In a nutshell, drafting an OT is comparably safe when weighed against many other options.

Now factor in how there's almost no scenario any of us can think of where a top prospect won't fall directly into the Bengals laps. So the idea is not only safe...it's secure. It can be had.

Thus, the mind closes down and the mouth opens up and the next thing spoken is some rant about how other options are being considered only because the O-line isn't a sexy pick.

People, there's nothing sexier than running the ball down an opponents throat all game long.

So why would anyone consider drafting a DE or a LB when a sexy OT is going to be there at #6?

Well, because the defender just might grade out as the BPA when this thing plays out. And furthermore, he just might play a position that is nearly as great a need as OT.

Just saying.

[kentjett]

Their r several top DE's that r drafted in the later rounds that pan out better than the top guys. Trent Cole was drafted in the 5th round in 2005. Jared Allen was drafted in the 4th round of the 2004 draft. their isn't one guy in this draft that projects as a physical freak like Peppers or Mario. The other DE's have a lot of bust potential and the Bengals can't afford that gamble. Go w/ the sure pick at tackle or LB. Defensive lineman bust out way to easy. Bunkley, Ellis, Courtney Brown just to name a few. I know its early on Ellis but he looked pathetic and Dorsey didn't look great either. The only direction I can see us going is OL.

[Clackwoods]

All I am saying is the drop off between a top 5 or 6 DE and a top 20 DE is very significant. The drop off between a top 5 or 6 OT and a top 20 OT is a lot less.

What is this opinion based on?

OK let's just take a look at the drafts from 2003-2006 and that will answer that question, you can see the difference in the talent level of the DE based on where they are drafted. I am only including the first 22 picks because I doubt we will pick lower than that.

2003- 13th pick- Ty Warren (Solid DE)

14th- Michael Haynes (Who?)

15th- Jerome McDoogle (OK)

2004- 18- Will Smith (Good but injury prone)

20- Udeze (Washout)

2005- 18- Erasmus James- BUST

20- Marcus Spears- Decent player

2006- 1- Mario Williams (SACK MASTER)

20- Tambi Hali (Bum)

The only player taken very high turned out to be a pro bowler, the rest are mediocre at best outside warren.

If you examine the drafts and look at all the OT's taken later than 10 in those drafts they are just as successful as some of the OL taken in the top 10.

Also, I want the Bengals to get a Center in round 2 and get a FA to fill the gap for a year. I am not saying disregard the line, I am just saying after we get our Oline fixed they will want to address Dline and then we may be looking at a pick in the teens which just isn't adequate enough to find the superstar Dlinemen we need.

So because Mario was taken with the #1, that's why he's a pro-bowler? I think you have it backwards my friend. He's a rare talent, which is why DE's don't usually go in the top 5, let alone #1.

But let's look at the last two years to complete your list.

3 DE's were taken in the top 10 of the '08 draft. Only 7.5 sacks between the three of them.

In the '07 draft Gaines Adams was taken with the #4 overall pick. Currently there are debates in Buccaneer forums about his possible "bust" status. Reminds me a lot of Justin Smith. Not a bad player... but nothing to warrant a #4 selection. Jamaal Anderson was taken with the #8 pick. He's started 31 games and has 2 career sacks.

Drafting a DE with the #6 pick is anything but a lock on a future pro-bowler.

OT's however have a very low bust rate. Historically there are incredibly few O-Linemen taken in the top 10 that end up as busts. The only one in recent memory is Robert Gallery. The fact is that O-Linemen are very safe picks in the top 10 as opposed to QB's and DT's who have incredibly high bust rates. DE falls somewhere in between... but still a much riskier pick than an OT.

Of course, I'm not saying the Bengals MUST take an OT with the #6 pick. And I likely won't be complaining at all if they decided to address the defensive line or Linebacker for that matter. But I don't see sound logic in taking a DE with the top 6 pick just because you could always address the O-Line later. I say take the highest rated player on the board. If it's Orakpo, then so be it - but I'm doubting it'll be him.

OK let me clarify one last time. If I was the GM of the Bengals I believe that we won't be able to get the same talent at DE next year because I think we will win at least 8 games and be in the teens next year drafting.

I am not saying that we shouldn't take an OT or that I would even be upset at the pick, or that the pick will bust. I understand the pick and I would like the pick, but we can get just as good an OT next year. The bust rate is a lot higher in Defensive line picks past the top 10. As you said, the bust rate for first round OT is very low which makes it safe to wait a year. And as far as Carson getting hurt (GET A FA TACKLE TO FILL THE GAP FOR A YEAR)

And even if we don't take a DE I would rather have another Linebacker to add to the defense. Look at the Ravens they have been good for a long time because they have a great defense, no matter how s**tty their offense is they always win games and are competitive (Not counting last year when they were ravaged by injuries). We need a great defense if we want to win.

[HoosierCat]

The lower bust rate of OTs versus, say, DEs certainly needs to be a strong consideration, IMHO. Whoever we pick, that guy is going to get a $50 million + deal before he ever takes an NFL snap. He busts, then that's a hell of a cap anchor.

Really, tho, if thats anyone's main concern, their rallying cry ought to be "trade down!" not " draft OT!" Between 10 and 15 we might still have a shot at Monroe or Oher. A lot of mocks I've looked at have one or the other slipping to mid-round. Certainly seems like Laurinaitis will still be on the board then as well, as will DEs like Everett Brown. Even lower, we could drop into the second half of the first and still get a quality tackle or just bite the bullet and grab C Alex Mack. Shoot, trade down that far and we probably pick up at least an extra second and third (and maybe some 2010 picks too), so I'd probably even be able to swallow a pick like Knowshon Moreno at that point. Or go DT -- it's a weak year at the spot and the top DT could still be on the board into the 20s.

[Pidge]

Our O-line sucks and without an effective O-line nothing else works properly. I'm not here to argue about it, that's just the way it is. Accept it and move on. Draft whoever you like at 6 (because the chances of us trading down are zero). Two of the first three picks has to be O-line though.

And that's an end of it.

[HairOnFire]

Go w/ the sure pick at tackle or LB. Defensive lineman bust out way to easy.

This team will never have an elite defense if it doesn't try to build one.

((shrug))

Look, if I had to guess I'd put the odds the Bengals draft a 1st round OT at roughly 90%....so I'm probably closer to the consensus opinion than it might appear. That said, I'd rank Orakpo as a solid Top 5 blue chipper who in all probability WON'T be available when the Bengals pick. And for whatever it might be worth...(ahem)....my dumbass isn't convinced the same things are true of all of the OT prospects.

For example, if I focus soley on which prospect is the best available I take Orakpo over Oher. And I do it in a heartbeat. Furthermore, after waiting a beat or two I probably come to the same conclusion if it comes down to Orakpo and Monroe. As for Smith, I think he's off the board already.

So, am I nuts? Am I seeing too much in Orakpo? Am I slighting Oher? Or do you guys run through the same draft scenarios, coming to the very same conclusions, but in the end you just shrug and say..."f**k it, I'm taking the fat guy."

[Pidge]

Go w/ the sure pick at tackle or LB. Defensive lineman bust out way to easy.

This team will never have an elite defense if it doesn't try to build one.

((shrug))

Look, if I had to guess I'd put the odds the Bengals draft a 1st round OT at roughly 90%....so I'm probably closer to the consensus opinion than it might appear. That said, I'd rank Orakpo as a solid Top 5 blue chipper who in all probability WON'T be available when the Bengals pick. And for whatever it might be worth...(ahem)....my dumbass isn't convinced the same things are true of all of the OT prospects.

For example, if I focus soley on which prospect is the best available I take Orakpo over Oher. And I do it in a heartbeat. Furthermore, after waiting a beat or two I probably come to the same conclusion if it comes down to Orakpo and Monroe. As for Smith, I think he's off the board already.

So, am I nuts? Am I seeing too much in Orakpo? Am I slighting Oher? Or do you guys run through the same draft scenarios, coming to the very same conclusions, but in the end you just shrug and say..."f**k it, I'm taking the fat guy."

This is true. It's not like we're just a couple of pieces away. If a defensive prospect is available and just blows away the offensive player away in terms of talent/potential/whatever then yeah, go for that at 6.

As long as the name Wells or Crabtree aren't called out.

[Clackwoods]

Go w/ the sure pick at tackle or LB. Defensive lineman bust out way to easy.

This team will never have an elite defense if it doesn't try to build one.

((shrug))

Look, if I had to guess I'd put the odds the Bengals draft a 1st round OT at roughly 90%....so I'm probably closer to the consensus opinion than it might appear. That said, I'd rank Orakpo as a solid Top 5 blue chipper who in all probability WON'T be available when the Bengals pick. And for whatever it might be worth...(ahem)....my dumbass isn't convinced the same things are true of all of the OT prospects.

For example, if I focus soley on which prospect is the best available I take Orakpo over Oher. And I do it in a heartbeat. Furthermore, after waiting a beat or two I probably come to the same conclusion if it comes down to Orakpo and Monroe. As for Smith, I think he's off the board already.

So, am I nuts? Am I seeing too much in Orakpo? Am I slighting Oher? Or do you guys run through the same draft scenarios, coming to the very same conclusions, but in the end you just shrug and say..."f**k it, I'm taking the fat guy."

This is true. It's not like we're just a couple of pieces away. If a defensive prospect is available and just blows away the offensive player away in terms of talent/potential/whatever then yeah, go for that at 6.

As long as the name Wells or Crabtree aren't called out.

I agree, we take the best available, if it is defense then do it. Our Oline and Dline sucks so either way we can't go wrong. We can't win unless we fix both.

[HairOnFire]

Our O-line sucks and without an effective O-line nothing else works properly. I'm not here to argue about it, that's just the way it is. Accept it and move on. Draft whoever you like at 6 (because the chances of us trading down are zero). Two of the first three picks has to be O-line though.

And that's an end of it.

No, it isn't. And the reason that's true is because no team should be focusing now on what it's going to do in the coming draft. Instead, you focus now...in freaking January....on what can do free up your options on draft day. You do whatever you can to prevent scenarios that dictate you draft lesser players due to an immediate pressing need.

For example, and it's only one of many, imagine a scenario that lands a veteran OC prior to the draft.

[Pidge]

Our O-line sucks and without an effective O-line nothing else works properly. I'm not here to argue about it, that's just the way it is. Accept it and move on. Draft whoever you like at 6 (because the chances of us trading down are zero). Two of the first three picks has to be O-line though.

And that's an end of it.

No, it isn't. And the reason that's true is because no team should be focusing now on what it's going to do in the coming draft. Instead, you focus now...in freaking January....on what can do free up your options on draft day. You do whatever you can to prevent scenarios that dictate you draft lesser players due to an immediate pressing need.

For example, and it's only one of many, imagine a scenario that lands a veteran OC prior to the draft.

You're saying this to the wrong people. Doubt you'll find many who would disagree with you. But we'll get in the usual skidmarks during FA and look to luck out in the draft.

[HairOnFire]

You're saying this to the wrong people. Doubt you'll find many who would disagree with you. But we'll get in the usual skidmarks during FA and look to luck out in the draft.

Old washed up dudes?

Perhaps, but for once the Bengals modest goals in free agency may line up perfectly with one of their greatest needs. Centers aren't highly coveted in free agency. Fullbacks too. Linebackers are plentiful.

Sign 'em.

[GregCook]

You're saying this to the wrong people. Doubt you'll find many who would disagree with you. But we'll get in the usual skidmarks during FA and look to luck out in the draft.

Old washed up dudes?

Perhaps, but for once the Bengals modest goals in free agency may line up perfectly with one of their greatest needs. Centers aren't highly coveted in free agency. Fullbacks too. Linebackers are plentiful.

Sign 'em.

One other reason for not going defense in round 1.

Offense was what, nearly the worst in the NFL while the defense was rated 12 best? Reason is fix what is broken.

[Pidge]

You're saying this to the wrong people. Doubt you'll find many who would disagree with you. But we'll get in the usual skidmarks during FA and look to luck out in the draft.

Old washed up dudes?

Perhaps, but for once the Bengals modest goals in free agency may line up perfectly with one of their greatest needs. Centers aren't highly coveted in free agency. Fullbacks too. Linebackers are plentiful.

Sign 'em.

Washed up I think is the key. Age is of secondary concern.

Actually - really good point though. We're not after DE or CB. A nice fat bloke to play in the middle and a squat, angry guy with no brain to concuss. Maybe we can get a good center in the later rounds to learn how to eat donuts from our veteran C for a year or two.

What FA centers are there, aside from Matt Birk?

[HoosierCat]

I believe Brad Meester (Jags) and Jeff Saturday (Colts) are scheduled to be FAs.

[Pidge]

I believe Brad Meester (Jags) and Jeff Saturday (Colts) are scheduled to be FAs.

K then. So some options out there. Will all three make it to FA. Surely at least one of them will re-sign. Saturday is a couple of years older than the other two but hey - anything is better than Guy-check.

[HairOnFire]

Offense was what, nearly the worst in the NFL while the defense was rated 12 best? Reason is fix what is broken.

Fine, you're a stat guy. So was the pass rush broken? Was it nearly the worst in the NFL?

What do the crunched numbers say?

[Clackwoods]

I believe Brad Meester (Jags) and Jeff Saturday (Colts) are scheduled to be FAs.

To hell with Brad Meester, David Garrard was on his ass all the time!

[Kazkal]

Seems alot of DE busts are purely taken over their potential and they figure well if their this freakish they should have no problem sacking a QB...

Like Jamaal Anderson who had some freakish speed for a guy his size but was such a work in progress...

[derekshank]

So, am I nuts? Am I seeing too much in Orakpo? Am I slighting Oher? Or do you guys run through the same draft scenarios, coming to the very same conclusions, but in the end you just shrug and say..."f**k it, I'm taking the fat guy."

No I don't think you're nuts. You're not the only person who thinks Orakpo is a blue-chipper. I just don't share your confidence in his abilities.

He's incredibly strong, and I'm sure he will make a fine DE in the NFL. But he's just not the physical specimen that Peppers or Jason Taylor have made their living on. That alone will keep him from being the next Mario Williams or Michael Strahan. I just don't think he has the edge speed to take advantage of the NFL's better OT's. And if the reason we're looking at DE in the first round is because of the pass rush, I think many will be disappointed with Orakpo.

So Hair, in many ways I'm with you. I'm fine with taking the BPA, and if Orakpo ends up being that guy, I'm sure I'll have high hopes for him in stripes. But I'm doubting he's the guy to create the pass rush we're all looking for from this defense. In my opinion the Bengals would be better off drafting a sack specialist at SSLB to cure the pass rush woes... not because I prefer that scheme, but because I don't see Orakpo as possessing the pass-rushing skills to warrant the #6 overall pick.

I could be wrong... it's happened before - but when you draft a DE under 260 lbs, you're usually looking for a sack specialist like Freeney or Mathis. But he just strikes me as the second coming of Gaines Adams. Lots of hype and potential that don't translate into production once you're going against NFL quality O-Linemen, and NFL QB's that know how to step up in the pocket so that quick underweight DE's run right behind them.

[ArmyBengal]

I think OT will be the pick as well. Not because it's the pick that I want, just the way I see the organization going. I don't have big problems with that either. There are many options and as I mentioned in the other thread, the more people declare, the better our odds become of trading down. In all honesty, I wouldn't mind seeing them trade down twice if that was all possible and pick up some picks in next years top rounds.

I guess this is where I should wake up from that dream.......

[HairOnFire]

No I don't think you're nuts. You're not the only person who thinks Orakpo is a blue-chipper. I just don't share your confidence in his abilities.

He's incredibly strong, and I'm sure he will make a fine DE in the NFL. But he's just not the physical specimen that Peppers or Jason Taylor have made their living on. That alone will keep him from being the next Mario Williams or Michael Strahan. I just don't think he has the edge speed to take advantage of the NFL's better OT's. And if the reason we're looking at DE in the first round is because of the pass rush, I think many will be disappointed with Orakpo.

I have no doubt you're right. Many here would be disappointed with Orakpo because he's not a 290 lb. physical marvel OR a Dwight Freeney clone. But as for me, I'd be rather satisfied with the type of player you're describing, and I find it rather intersting how a fairly vocal critic of Orakpo can admit he's likely to be..."a fine DE in the NFL."

In my opinion the Bengals would be better off drafting a sack specialist at SSLB to cure the pass rush woes... not because I prefer that scheme, but because I don't see Orakpo as possessing the pass-rushing skills to warrant the #6 overall pick.

A fair point, and an idea I can very easily get behind. However, we're now ignoring the issue of what to do if the so-called first choice turns out to be an OT prospect who is even less deserving of consideration at #6.

[derekshank]

I find it rather intersting how a fairly vocal critic of Orakpo can admit he's likely to be..."a fine DE in the NFL."

Fair enough... I'll try to explain my position. You have stated that DE is an area of need because the Bengals pass rush was near the bottom of the league this year. I agree with that, and it is sound logic. But the problem I have with drafting Orakpo is not that I think he's a bad player, as much as the fact that I don't feel he address that specific pass rushing trait the Bengals lack at DE.

Odom and Geathers aren't superstars... but they are solid players who defend the run well. I'm just not sure why the Bengals need to invest big money on another player out of the same cloth.

I was always a rather large fan of Justin Smith myself. I know a lot of people around here didn't care for him because of his sack totals, but he was a complete DE, and I was sad to see him go. I could see Orakpo being a lighter version of him. A player I would get behind and enjoy watching play in stripes... So I would not consider myself a "vocal critic " of Orakpo.

My problem with drafting him at #6 is that I am of the opinion that there are much larger holes to fill. Not because the Bengals are set at DE... but because Orakpo doesn't fill the void in what the DE's in Cincy currently lack. Again, just my opinion - but that's why I'd rather go another direction - assuming other players of similar quality are there at the #6 spot.

[kentjett]

I think Orakpo will be alright but he isn't special and I honestly think he will be the second DE taken in this years draft. Michael Johnson is the type of DE that will shoot up everybodies board because he has freakish ability but hasn't put it all together on the field. He is the type that blows up at the combine.