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Betting on Tom Petty's Super Bowl XLII music set list


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By Ben Heller

SPiN Columnist

From the coin toss to how many times Joe Buck will say "Peyton Manning," people will place bets on anything during the Super Bowl. And while I wouldn't be shocked if somewhere in Vegas you can already do this, I'd like to be able to bet on which songs Tom Petty will play during his halftime show.

For instance, you would have made a killing if you had placed money on Prince digging deep to play Baby I'm a Star last year. So what would the odds look like for Tom Petty's performance this Sunday? Let's take a look at some of his well-known songs.

I Won't Back Down

Odds: Even.

Just like it was virtually inevitable that Prince would play Let's Go Crazy last year, it would be a shock if Petty didn't bust out his well-known anthem of standing his ground and not backing down. It'll just be kinda funny to hear it if the Patriots are up 31-3 at the half.

American Girl

Odds: Even.

It's the Super Bowl. It's America. It's cheerleaders. It's his signature song. You'll hear it.

Runnin' Down a Dream

Odds: 7-5. If you don't think Fox is planning on playing this tune to promote Petty's appearance and/or the Patriots quest for perfection, you just don't watch enough TV.

As for Petty playing this himself, it's his loudest, fastest hit song, and even better, it's full of the "hey, let's chase down this goal!" imagery that sports montages are made of. The only catch is that it was already the "official theme song" of the 2006 NBA Finals, and he might not be allowed to play it during an NFL game. We'll see.

Refugee

Odds: 4-3.

Thematically, a song about being beaten down by a record company doesn't have much to do with Super Sunday. Still, it's one of Petty's best-known anthems, and if he's doing one of those stuff-lots-of-hits-into-a-medley thing, you'll definitely hear a chunk of this classic rock staple.

Some New Song You've Never Heard Before, and Will Likely Never Hear Again

Odds: 2-1.

The guy's going to have the world's attention. You can fault him for trying to shift some units.

A (Not-So-Surprising) Surprise Cover of a Classic Rock Staple

Odds: 2-1.

We Will Rock You? Imagine? Rock You Like A Hurricane?

Surprise us, Tom.

The Waiting

Odds: 5-2.

If he feels like making a statement about the absurd, hype-filled layoff between the conference championship games and the Super Bowl, this is the tune to do it with. Then again, it's a passive song about settling down. Not exactly the rah-rah anthem that's gonna keep tipsy viewers from checking out the Puppy Bowl.

Free Fallin'

Odds: 5-2.

Again, no Petty hits medley would be complete without this one. However, if one team were losing badly, Free Fallin' wouldn't exactly be what they'd want to hear reverberating throughout the stadium while getting scolded by coaches.

I Need to Know

Odds: 7-1.

Another fast rocker that would no-doubt pump up the Arizona crowd. But with this being one of the few Super Bowls in recent memory without any "will he or won't he leave" coaching controversy, the song isn't as apropos as usual.

Change of Heart

Odds: 8-1.

All of a sudden everyone hates the Patriots, and the world is rooting for a New York team and a Manning. Why yes, there has been a change of heart.

The Last DJ

Odds: 10-1.

Just how "with it" is the NFL? The last time Tom Petty had a Top 40 hit was in 1994 --when Eli Manning was 13 years old, and Bill Belichick was in the midst of a 36-44 career record with the Browns. Meanwhile, our halftime entertainment's most recognizable song from this century is The Last DJ, a scathing attack on our Clear Channel-run airwaves. Will he have the footballs to bust it out on a national stage? Don't be surprised if he does.

Learning to Fly

Odds: 12-1.

"Coming down is the hardest thing?" "What goes up, must come down?" If things don't work out for Eli Manning on Sunday, don't say Tom Petty didn't warn him.

Don't Come Around Here No More

Odds: 15-1.

If Petty wanted to make history as the first guy to play a sitar during a Super Bowl, then playing this song would suffice. Also, if the band felt like recreating the video and eating a cake made out of a porn star, well, they'd definitely make up for the lack of a Lingerie Bowl.

Even the Losers

Odds: 20-1.

Since the game is in Arizona, how great would it be for Petty to sing this one while a montage of Cardinals lowlights played behind him? Matt Leinart can even pitch in on backing vocals.

Mary Jane's Last Dance

You Don't Know How it Feels

Odds: 25-1.

On one hand, these are Petty's most "recent" hits. On the other hand, both of them reference smoking weed. Of course if Petty wants some extra cash, he can always change up the lyrics: "So let's get to the point/let's roll another Cheesy Gordita Crunch from Taco Bell."

You Got Lucky

Odds: 30-1.

A long shot, but if the Giants head into halftime with the lead, I wouldn't be shocked if Bill Belichick slipped Petty some cash to play this one.

Don't Do Me Like That

Odds: 35-1.

"If you were in the public eye/givin' someone else a try/And you know you better watch your step/or you're gonna get hurt yourself." Tom Brady probably wouldn't be to psyched to hear this one. But Bridget Moynahan would.

Jammin' Me

Odds: 80-1.

The only people who'll be saying "Quit jammin' me" on Sunday are Plaxico Burress and Randy Moss. And I'm guessing neither one is familiar with this mid-'80s anti-TV ditty. Unless Moss is a huge fan of co-writer Bob Dylan. You just never know with that guy.

Rebels

Odds: 100-1.

The only way Petty can justify playing Rebels in a game featuring Ole Miss alum Eli Manning would be if he had a new song called Wolverines to dedicate to Tom Brady. And I'm guessing that's not happening.

Listen to Her Heart

Walls

Odds: 200-1.

Two of my favorite Petty songs, but they're both a little soft around the edges to make it to the Super Bowl. You know, like Chad Pennington.

Stop Draggin' My Heart Around

Odds: 7,000-1.

Technically it's not a Tom Petty song, he just happened to write it for Stevie Nicks. Playing it would sort of be like Bill Belichick calling a play he created for his daughter's Powderpuff game. So while it would be ridiculous, you can't completely rule it out.

A--hole

Odds: 10,000,000-1.

Petty's not known for being controversial, but unearthing his cover of this rectally titled Beck ditty would definitely take the attention away from Janet Jackson's boob once and for all.

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I didn't know Petty was doing the halftime show. Great choice! Are they going to lame it up by adding a pop star and hip-hop personality?

Actually Tom Petty was their second choice. The Eagles were the first choice, and they turned the NFL down. I'm eagerly waiting to hear his halftime show!

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I Won't Back Down

Odds: Even.

Just like it was virtually inevitable that Prince would play Let's Go Crazy last year, it would be a shock if Petty didn't bust out his well-known anthem of standing his ground and not backing down. It'll just be kinda funny to hear it if the Patriots are up 31-3 at the half.

American Girl

Odds: Even.

It's the Super Bowl. It's America. It's cheerleaders. It's his signature song. You'll hear it.

Runnin' Down a Dream

Odds: 7-5.

If you don't think Fox is planning on playing this tune to promote Petty's appearance and/or the Patriots quest for perfection, you just don't watch enough TV.

As for Petty playing this himself, it's his loudest, fastest hit song, and even better, it's full of the "hey, let's chase down this goal!" imagery that sports montages are made of. The only catch is that it was already the "official theme song" of the 2006 NBA Finals, and he might not be allowed to play it during an NFL game. We'll see.

Free Fallin'

Odds: 5-2.

Again, no Petty hits medley would be complete without this one. However, if one team were losing badly, Free Fallin' wouldn't exactly be what they'd want to hear reverberating throughout the stadium while getting scolded by coaches.

Nothing too exotic in this bunch but a couple are a few of my personal favorites. Vegas probably did alright tonight.

Somewhere Jeff Lynne is smiling.

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