Accurate depiction of TB loss & Bengals status

[DesperateDerelict]

Bengals part of the 'Nine Nuggets': Still blown away by the Cards' collapse

Actually, for the first time in ages, I see a national article that I totally agree with.:

8. Cincinnati lost in Tampa, 14-13, to Bruce Gradkowski and the Bucs.

It marked Gradkowski's first win as a pro quarterback and Tampa's first win of the season.

Tampa's defense did a great job switching fronts and coverage. It never allowed Carson Palmer, pressured all day, to get comfortable. And Rudi Johnson never got started. Cincy's struggles in the run game and passing attack can be attributed to both Tampa's strong play during the game, and the injuries mounting on the Bengal offensive line. This team really misses Rich Braham.

And the last team you want to face is Carolina, led by Julius Peppers, when you have offensive line issues. That's the challenge ahead for the Bengals this week. And they are going to have to play without left tackle Levi Jones. Ouch.

Meanwhile, this was pretty big for Gradkowski and the Bucs.

In talking to the Bucs' quarterback Monday following his first career win, he was enthused about the milestone, but perhaps even more excited about the first win for Tampa this season.

Gradkowski threw the game-winning touchdown pass to Michael Clayton, who has been rediscovered with Gradkowski under center. The quarterback says he has a great rapport with the 2004 first round pick, and he added, "Clayton is a big target. He has a big body. If you just put it on him, he's going to go get it and make plays for you."

Gradkowski also says he has heard the comparisons to former Jon Gruden pupil and star quarterback Rich Gannon. When I asked him if he thought that was valid, he agreed.

"Coach shows me video of Gannon. He was a smart quarterback, an athletic quarterback. He made plays with his feet and made clutch plays," he said. "I view myself in that mode and coach Gruden views me in that mode."

Gradkowski said he also appreciates the tough love Gruden gives his quarterbacks.

By the way, the roughing the passer call in this game on Justin Smith, a crucial over-the-top and flat-out wrong call, was the single worst call by a ref all season long.

I asked Gradkowski about the play

His take was telling.

"I thought it was a penalty at the time, but after watching it on film, yes, I can see why you are asking me the question and why it has been questioned."

[DesperateDerelict]

Followed by the DVOA experts 'blaming' Palmer: Palmer's Production Declines

Tampa Bay's 14-13 win over Cincinnati will be mistakenly viewed as the return to dominance of the once-proud Buccaneers defense.

Such optimism is likely overstated, as the Buccaneers' mediocre defense simply took advantage of a struggling Cincinnati offense. Unless Carson Palmer regains his 2005 form, the Bengals will start falling quickly out of the difficult AFC North race.

First things first, and to prevent a slew of angry emails from Cincinnati fans, the Bengals probably should have won this game. Justin Smith sacked Tampa Bay quarterback Bruce Gradkowski during Tampa Bay's game-winning drive. He was charged with a questionable-at-best roughing the passer penalty that prolonged the drive and allowed Tampa to score the game-winning touchdown.

The actual outcome could matter a great deal if Cincinnati finishes one game out of a playoff spot. For the purposes of this article, the last drive matters almost not at all. Whether or not Tampa Bay managed the final touchdown drive, these two teams spent three hours proving they were roughly equivalent. For a team with Super Bowl aspirations, being roughly equivalent with the Buccaneers is not good news.

The Bengals charged into the playoffs a season ago behind a dominant offense and an opportunistic defense. The offense was led by Carson Palmer, who emerged as one of the top quarterbacks in football. His devastating knee injury in the playoffs thwarted last season's ambitions, but a miraculous comeback had him back at the helm in Week 1.

It may be time to start reevaluating the comeback, because Palmer is struggling in the early going. According to our advanced statistic DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, (explained here), the Bengals are playing at a higher level on defense and special teams than a year ago. Their offense is a different story. It ranked fifth in 2005, and this year it is a mediocre 15th. Their rushing offense behind the consistent Rudi Johnson struggled on Sunday but has been solid on the year. Their pass offense, however, now ranks 22nd, only one spot ahead of the Gradkowski-led Buccaneers.

Palmer himself has slipped mightily in our rankings. According to DPAR, which measures value over a replacement-level quarterback, Palmer ranked between Peyton Manning and Tom Brady a season ago. This year, he finds himself in the less illustrious company of Brad Johnson and David Carr. He is not a bad quarterback this year, like his fellow ACL survivor Daunte Culpepper, but he is also not the elite player Cincinnati needs to compete for division championships.

Most of the drop in Palmer's production is on his passes intended for The Mohawked One, Chad Johnson. A season ago, Johnson was the second most productive wide receiver according to our advanced statistics. So far this year, he is 47th.

Johnson is facing a number of double teams because of injuries to the Bengals receiving corps. T.J. Houshmandzadeh is still excelling at our advanced metrics and is probably the best second receiver in the league outside of Reggie Wayne. He did, however, miss the Bengals' first two games. Third receiver Chris Henry continues to struggle in his off-field duties to be a law-abiding citizen and has missed the last two games. The only game where Palmer had all three talented receivers was against Pittsburgh, a game the Bengals won 28-20.

As good as these receivers are, if Palmer were so dependent on them, he would be more Jake Delhomme than Peyton Manning. This writer believes that a healthy Palmer is in that elite category of quarterbacks — if not the equal of the consensus top two, then in the same area as Donovan McNabb. The problem is that Palmer is either not fully healthy or not sufficiently in form due to insufficient off-season work.

Carson Palmer is going to have to improve if the Bengals hope to return to the playoffs.

Palmer was one of the hardest quarterbacks to sack a season ago, going down only 19 times despite over 500 attempts. This season, he has already been sacked 17 times including twice on Sunday. Clearly some of his in-pocket movement is diminished in the early going of this season. The increase in sacks has led to a number of fumbles. Palmer has coughed up the ball eight times already, compared with five in all of 2005.

This situation may be partly attributable to the loss of center Rich Braham, but it's about to get worse. Tackle Levi Jones, possibly one of the five best in the league, left Sunday's game and is now out for several weeks following knee surgery.

More troubling may be that Tampa Bay was geared up to stop the run, often left their defense in man coverage, and still contained the Cincinnati offense. Houshmandzadeh and Johnson both had 100-yard receiving days, but the offense struggled on third down. Palmer went 7-of-12 for 46 yards on third down, but only two completions earned first downs. He also fumbled a snap on a third down. It should be no surprise that a Cincinnati offense unable to convert third downs scored only one touchdown.

The struggles on third down are not unique to this game. Their pass offense is above average on first and second down. On third down, their DVOA is a horrendous -43.6%. They are particularly bad on third-and-long, averaging only four yards on third-and-7 or more with an interception and four fumbles (two lost). This may be where Palmer does not trust his knee. He checks down to a running back before he lets a play develop. When he wants to go deep, he cannot create enough time in the pocket to let his man get downfield.

The mediocrity of the Cincinnati offense kept their point total low enough to give Tampa Bay a chance to win it at the end. Somewhere in Florida right now, fans are happily reassuring each other that Gradkowski is the new spark the Buccaneers need. Gradkowski has been extremely impressive for a rookie sixth round pick. Still, what this game really showed was how Tampa Bay's defense needs to play at a high level for the team to be successful.

After this game, Cincinnati ranks 18th and Tampa Bay 23rd according to DVOA. Things do not get much easier for the Bengals going forward. Their next five games are all against teams with winning records. Unless Palmer can cure what ails him on third down, it seems hard to imagine this team surviving this sort of run. The good news is that Baltimore does not appear as good as it looked early in the season. The bad news is that the real Ben Roethlisberger showed up last week, suddenly making Pittsburgh a dangerous team again. The plan in Cincinnati was to play adequate defense and win with offense. Without a dominant quarterback, that is an impossible task.

For Tampa Bay, the schedule is equally daunting, starting with a home game against an angry Philadelphia Eagles team. Gradkowski will be tested severely in that game. The one thing in Tampa Bay's favor is that they have played reasonably well for three straight weeks, losing to New Orleans on a late punt return and on a last-minute field goal against Carolina. If the aging defense rises up for a few weeks, the Buccaneers will play spoiler a number of times. Their 1-4 start dug them into too deep a hole for them to challenge for the playoffs. Sadly, the future does not look brighter, only older, and this season's eventual 6-10 record could be the first in a series of disappointing seasons.

IMHO:

1) It's not all Palmers fault: Breshnehan needs more patience. Neither Carson nor BB are letting the game 'come to them".

2) I think that late (and flagrant) hit on Chad at the end of the Browns game took the starch out of him. He's not the reciever he was last year, and may never be. We REALLY need Chris Henry back (he still has to go to court again, doesn't he?)

3) Props to the Defense and Special Teams. Chucky has them playing well, even though we are missing ALL 3 starting linebackers and our senior cornerback has lost a step or two. Regardless, the "D" and ST are not good enough to carry this team => the offense has to be the main ingredient for winning games!

[skyline]

Yeah, I disagree with the criticism of Palmer on third down. Not waiting long enough for the play to develop because he's worried about his knee? How does that make sense? He's worried about his knee on third down, but not on the first two downs? Whatever.

The truth is that the pocket is collapsing before the play has time to develop. That's not Palmer's fault.

I'm not saying he's played like his old self. The fumbles are an issue. But like others have pointed out, it's not a new issue. It's just been less of a factor in the past due to good protection.

[richmond_mat]

Palmer needs to quit acting like Peyton Manning before running the play. Call the play coach drew up and run it.

I do not recall any BIG plays happening after he hopped around audiblizing into some half baked design.

[ShulaSteakhouse]

Yeah the problem with Carson is his protection sucks - period. I don't know what else to say.

Give him time to throw, and he'll chew defenses up left and right.

His passer rating was 95% or something like that last Sunday - he had a high completion percentage and didn't turn the ball over (should've on at least one throw).

The problem isn't inaccuracy, his knee, his confidence etc..., it's his offensive line. They aren't giving him enough consistent protection to get into the flow of the game and make plays, nor Chad, nor Rudi.

No 0-line = no offense. Period. End of story. They are sucking horribly this year.

But let's extend Paul Alexander and neglect drafting a center or guard again next year eh? They can get by with another Guy-chick 4th rounder right?

[BengalByTheBay]

IMHO:

1) It's not all Palmers fault: Breshnehan needs more patience. Neither Carson nor BB are letting the game 'come to them".

2) I think that late (and flagrant) hit on Chad at the end of the Browns game took the starch out of him. He's not the reciever he was last year, and may never be. We REALLY need Chris Henry back (he still has to go to court again, doesn't he?)

3) Props to the Defense and Special Teams. Chucky has them playing well, even though we are missing ALL 3 starting linebackers and our senior cornerback has lost a step or two. Regardless, the "D" and ST are not good enough to carry this team => the offense has to be the main ingredient for winning games!

I disagree with your #2. CJ has played at least as well after the hit as before. He's having a down season thus far, but it seems to me that he's not getting decent throws from Palmer most of the time. Not sure why that is, but I haven't seen him drop passes -- it's mainly been that the pass comes before his break, or too shallow for his break -- that suggests that timing remains off with Palmer. I'm at a loss to explain this because Palmer seems to be dialed in well with TJ, but there it is. I do not, however, see CJ shying away from contact or not putting a decent effort out there. I do think he's still got some problems with that shoulder though. After any catch that he lays out for, it seems like he's hanging his arm a little when he gets up. Agree with #3 though -- the defense played well against TB.

[DesperateDerelict]

IMHO:

...2) I think that late (and flagrant) hit on Chad at the end of the Browns game took the starch out of him. He's not the reciever he was last year, and may never be. We REALLY need Chris Henry back (he still has to go to court again, doesn't he?)

...

I disagree with your #2. CJ has played at least as well after the hit as before. He's having a down season thus far, but it seems to me that he's not getting decent throws from Palmer most of the time. Not sure why that is, but I haven't seen him drop passes -- it's mainly been that the pass comes before his break, or too shallow for his break -- that suggests that timing remains off with Palmer. I'm at a loss to explain this because Palmer seems to be dialed in well with TJ, but there it is. I do not, however, see CJ shying away from contact or not putting a decent effort out there. I do think he's still got some problems with that shoulder though. After any catch that he lays out for, it seems like he's hanging his arm a little when he gets up. .

I don't know, BayMan - I don't see Chad getting open by 3 steps like he did last year - it's more like half a step. Also, he doesn't seem to run any inside slants or center hooks - everything is outside or over the top - and not very damn much of the over-the-top, either.

[derekshank]

I don't know, BayMan - I don't see Chad getting open by 3 steps like he did last year - it's more like half a step. Also, he doesn't seem to run any inside slants or center hooks - everything is outside or over the top - and not very damn much of the over-the-top, either.

We've run several over the top plays the past few weeks. 1 for a 50-something yard gain, a few incompletions, and a few sacks because of poor protection.

We certainly haven't been running it nearly as often as we did last year, but that's not Chad or Carson's fault. It's because the rest of the team is playing poorly (and really, they are too... at least together). Chad looks fine to me. Carson looks fine to me. They just don't look to be on the same page, or have time in the pocket to get Chad free deep. It'll come... but it all starts with the O-Line.