But would KC want to lose that game if it meant losing the top seed? Assuming they don't beat both the Texans and Steelers. Do they want to have to face Pittsburgh or Baltimore in divisional?
If Pittsburgh wins the division, they're likely going 12-5 or 11-6. If 11-6, they need Baltimore to lose to Houston unless they sweep them. Houston has tie breaker against Pittsburgh but they're not going 2-0 in five days. Pittsburgh as a 3 seed hosts the Chargers likely. Steelers should win that. If Pittsburgh is the 4 seed that means Houston beat Baltimore and Pittsburgh lost two more games, which couldn't both be to division rivals as that gives Baltimore the division tie breaker. Pittsburgh still could host the Chargers if they win out or the 11-6 Ravens because the Ravens split and Steelers swept the Bengals. If Baltimore and Pittsburgh rematch in the playoffs after the Steelers sweep them, Ravens probably get them the third time. Houston as a 4 seed is not beating Baltimore twice in three weeks. But as a 4, they probably lost to the Ravens, so they have a huge home rematch advantage after two and a half weeks. Also, I don't think Houston beats LA if they play. So KC would get Pittsburgh or Baltimore in divisional while Buffalo gets Houston, Baltimore, or LA.
If Baltimore wins the division, I have to say I can't see Baltimore winning a hard fought contest and turning around and winning in Houston. Baltimore can't get the 3 seed. If Baltimore hosts Pittsburgh three weeks later again, they could still win. However, Houston has LA. So KC is again getting Pitt/Bal while Buffalo gets LA.
A Mahomes-Allen AFCCG in Buffalo has all the makings of 2006 AFCCG vibes where Manning AT HOME finally got to a SB by beating Brady. And KC doesn't want to face a battle-tested Ravens anyway. Even if KC wins, they're going to get worn down before the Bills. If KC had went to Baltimore before Buffalo last year, it's the Bills going to the SB.
So I'm not so sure KC wants to avoid Cincy moreso than having to go to Buffalo for the AFC title. If KC lost to Cincy in divisional, they have real problems. But are you guys really going to go to Buffalo and KC back to back and win there? Then have to go to Pittsburgh or Baltimore? I'd love to see it but it's a tall order.
I do want you guys in because missing the playoffs two years in a row strengthens KC and Buffalo's standing. And Wilson has brought that Big Ben aura back to Pittsburgh. He's a dark horse for the SB. You do not want Pittsburgh to get back to being that third wheel team behind the Brady-Manning redux. Let alone Lamar until he falls off.