New 2012 NFL Mock Draft

[HairOnFire]

Will Burfict be the BPA if he falls to the Bengals?

I think "if he falls to the Bengals" is the operative question.

IMHO I'd say Shank got it right. Because for me, this early in the draft process...the question that needs to be asked above all others is which available prospect is the best. Need comes later.

If Burfict shakes out to be BPA then you can immediately start chipping away at him using tools like need and fit, but it seems a little crazy to have already dismissed someone like Burfict simply because the Bengals already have Rey. In fact, the very thought of Marvin Lewis molding a player like Burfict is very intriuging.

[HairOnFire]

If he does falls to one of the Bengals spots (likely in the teens), he's probably not quite as amazing as he is currently being billed... and thus, a strong argument should be made to draft a position of greater need.

Do I need to point out how quickly you're willing to dismiss your own experts opinion simply because the Bengals already have an adequate starter?

Furthermore, your boy Miller admits Burfict is likely to be drafted later than his talent would suggest due to concerns over his character and personality. In other words, he's likely to fall in the draft due to to factors the Bengals typically ignore.

Again, it's way to early to start making short lists and player rankings, but if I could be bothered....Burfict would be on my list.

[HoosierCat]

Because for me, this early in the draft process...the question that needs to be asked above all others is which available prospect is the best.

On that front, opinion seems mixed at this point. Miller obviously loves him. Walter has him going 16th in his latest mock and Lou at draftking.com has him going at 14.

OTOH, Great Blue North ranks him 31 overall and neither Rang nor Reuter at CBS have him going in the first round in their mocks.

[alleycat]

I'm a huge Burzflict fan. And I basically keep seeing us taking him with our first 1st because I don't think the other elite-level players who fit our needs will be there. No T. Richardson. No Mo Claiborne (or Dre' Kirkpatrick for that matter). So as far as BPA, Burzflict looks like he'd fall quite nicely to us - and it seems a position we could use.

Matt Forte and LeSean McCoy went in the mid-late second, and I think we can expect to get a guy like Chris Polk there. If you knew that, who would you take in the 1st?

Gimme any of these guys in the first:

CB Claiborne

RB Richardson

CB Kirkpatrick

OG DeCastro (my current man-crush)

LB Burzflict

We get any two of those 5 and I'd be elated. Frankly, I'd even be fine with taking two OG's, or a T that we could plug into OG and could backup our bookends.

[alleycat]

On another note, why do have this feeling that one of our first round picks is going to creep higher and higher. I feel bad for Carson. I really do...

Ok maybe not.

[derekshank]

Do I need to point out how quickly you're willing to dismiss your own experts opinion simply because the Bengals already have an adequate starter?

Nope. You don't have to point it out... because I'm well aware of what I'm doing.

First of all, I'm not dismissing his opinion. I'm suggesting that if Miller is right... the Bengals don't have a legitimate shot at Burfict.

Secondly, my willingness to pass on a potential BPA because of the current roster isn't a strange concept. For example... If St. Louis were to get the #1 pick, they're going to try like hell to trade that pick, because having Luck and Bradford on the same team makes zero sense.

Finally, I haven't completely dismissed Burfict... but I have a hard time making a strong argument for it unless the Bengals think he can play SAM at an elite level (something Maualuga can't seem to do), or if they have suitors willing to pay a high price in a trade for Maualuga.

Again, it's way to early to start making short lists and player rankings, but if I could be bothered....Burfict would be on my list.

I have no problem with that.

What I would have a problem with is having two extremely talented MLB on the same roster. On any given play... one of those guys must be on the bench. That's poor roster management.

So, how about this? If Burfict is available, I am in favor of one of the following options: 1) Trade the pick; 2) Trade Maualuga; or 3) Convert Burfict to a OLB.

[HairOnFire]

Because for me, this early in the draft process...the question that needs to be asked above all others is which available prospect is the best.

On that front, opinion seems mixed at this point. Miller obviously loves him. Walter has him going 16th in his latest mock and Lou at draftking.com has him going at 14.

OTOH, Great Blue North ranks him 31 overall and neither Rang nor Reuter at CBS have him going in the first round in their mocks.

Exactly. Opinions are mixed. Or if you prefer, polarized. Some talk about a player who might be the next Ray Lewis. Still others, including CBS Draftscout rank him as the 42nd best prospect in the coming draft. For my part, I'm not ready to pimp anyone yet, but in regards to Burfict I'm not seeing any reason he shouldn't be considered seriously.

BTW, I loved the way Burfict was recently described by the head coach of Colorado.

"He plays to the echo of the whistle."

[alleycat]

Just posted this elsewhere (found it on another board). Just to complicate the discussion:

From STATS LLC,

Nate Clements:

Targets: 55

Completions: 23

Yards 299

TDs 2

YPA 5.43

Leon Hall:

Targets: 36

Completions: 21

Yards 300

TDs 2

YPA 8.33

[HoosierCat]

Just posted this elsewhere (found it on another board). Just to complicate the discussion:

No question that CB is a position that needs to be addressed and if they aren't looking at it in the first I would be surprised.

For me, the issue boils down to this: unless the bottom falls out for either Cincy or Oakland, the Bengals aren't going to be drafting anywhere near the top 10. At best they're mid-teens, at worst we have two picks at 20+ among the playoff bracket teams.

In most years, there's three, four, five, maybe six in a good year blue-chip guys. Our shot is nil. After that there's maybe half a dozen red-chippers. Unless they are trading up, wave bye-bye. After that, and we are talking about the best likely range where the Bengals are picking, the mid-teens, BPA is in the eye of the beholder. No matter who they pick, someone will scream that they left a better player on the board.

The further they go, the murkier BPA gets and the more you look at need. Like derek I have a hard time seeing them pull the trigger on Burfict just because the position is good right now. If I'm in the draft room, I pass on him in the first, and if someone objects I give them $20, introduce them to Hair, tell 'em first round's on me, and they should go to the bar and talk about how much I suck and how I just set the team back 10 years.

[alleycat]

Wow, The position is good right now? Really? I'd say it's the one place on our D where we don't have an identity. D-Line for sure, and our secondary is pretty tight (those #'s I posted above are still quite impressive, compared to league averages). But our LB's lack flair. Lack pop (of course, if Rey could connect on his diving whiffs we'd have a lot more of that pop).

In fact, I'd say the two positions on the team where we have the least identity, and could best use a new-blood infusion of, oh, I dunno, a little something juicier, would be G and LB. I actually have high hopes for Howard's continued improvement, and actually quite liked what I saw from Lawson last week. But Rey is not spectacular, and frankly, he's not on the field much the last few years either.

[derekshank]

WalterFootball updated his mock draft yesterday.

He has the Bengals taking:

1A) Janoris Jenkins, CB (Richardson and Burfict already gone)

1B) Cordy Glenn, OG

2) Chris Polk, RB

Other than the somewhat worrisome injury history for Polk... I'd be extremely satisfied if this is how it played out.

[Spor_tees]

WalterFootball updated his mock draft yesterday.

He has the Bengals taking:

1A) Janoris Jenkins, CB (Richardson and Burfict already gone)

1B) Cordy Glenn, OG

2) Chris Polk, RB

Other than the somewhat worrisome injury history for Polk... I'd be extremely satisfied if this is how it played out.

I would be more than happy to get Glenn at the end of the first round. If the Bengals could get the same type of production out of Polk as they did the last Washington second round RB, then they would be in good shape. Hopefully he won't carry the same attitude baggage.

[Spor_tees]

Montee Ball is looking better and better every week. He would make a great 'Thunder' to Bernard Scott's 'Lightening.' He is a cowbell type back playing much larger than his 5'11" 210 lb frame. He rushed 30 times in the game against Nebraska.

Rainey from Florida continues to intrigue me as a possible third round pick.

Does anyone think Case Keenum will do any good in the pro's? He's about average height at 6'2" but weighs 210 lb. It just seems like all the guys who break records in college can't do well in the pros. The last guy I can remember even being some kind of a pro QB was Ty Detmer.

[derekshank]

He's a loose cannon. He's overly violent. He will get a lot of personal fouls.

Sounds Awesome! Who among us wouldn't ignore these concerns if Ndamukong Suh were available?

After watching Suh selfishly hurt his team on Thursday... and then seeing Burfict get benched for the final 24 minutes yesterday after 2 personal fouls in one drive... I've changed my tune.

I don't want a selfish player who can't control his emotions. As much as I like watching his passionate and violent play... these types of players can't be counted on to help their teams win.

[Spor_tees]

I found a site called Draft Tek. It does it's mocks with a computer that has been fed information. It had the Bengals selecting Mark Barron and Montee Ball in the first round. After looking at several sites, I have decided it's almost impossible to come up with a consensus because everyone is all over the board. Mantei Te'o is as high as like #10 on some boards and as low as #40. I even saw a board that had Mike Adams from Ohio St. #9.

The only pick I have seen that has multiple times been the same guy, is the Bengals taking Glenn.

[ArmyBengal]

I think it's safe to say that CB and RB, or even Guard could be selected with the first couple picks in the 1st.

What I continue to find when looking at prospects is the other positions we could be looking at and the quality of depth at those positions. A lot will also depend on what they do with the single year deals they handed out and the FA's of their own. Will they bring back Manny Lawson ?? If not, OLB moves up the priority list. What about added depth at DT if they don't bring back Pat Sims ?? Not that it will be popular, but what happens with Simpson and Caldwell ?? Even if they let one of the two leave, do they turn it over to Whalen ?? What if both leave ?? I can see a WR pick at about the 4th round regardless. Marvin ALWAYS takes at least one.

Anyway around, it should be interesting to see how it turns out...

[Spor_tees]

I think it's safe to say that CB and RB, or even Guard could be selected with the first couple picks in the 1st.

What I continue to find when looking at prospects is the other positions we could be looking at and the quality of depth at those positions. A lot will also depend on what they do with the single year deals they handed out and the FA's of their own. Will they bring back Manny Lawson ?? If not, OLB moves up the priority list. What about added depth at DT if they don't bring back Pat Sims ?? Not that it will be popular, but what happens with Simpson and Caldwell ?? Even if they let one of the two leave, do they turn it over to Whalen ?? What if both leave ?? I can see a WR pick at about the 4th round regardless. Marvin ALWAYS takes at least one.

Anyway around, it should be interesting to see how it turns out...

I think the Bengals only signed Manny Lawson to a one year deal because they expected Rivers to be back. Things haven't worked out as planned.

[ArmyBengal]

Lawson has been playing SSLB and Rivers is a WSLB if i'm not mistaken.

Either way around, this furthers my point about BPA. While I think the first pick is CB, if both Jenkins and Minnefield are gone and LB presents the BPA, it wouldn't surprise me to see LB taken. I can't say as I would like that the most, but again, it wouldn't surprise me. Another thing to consider for this coming draft is what the FA market will look like. With the rookie wage scale in place and teams not having to mortgage the future on their first round picks, it allows them to keep the talent they have and less talent hits the market. At least that's what i'm expecting to happen.

[Spor_tees]

Lawson has been playing SSLB and Rivers is a WSLB if i'm not mistaken.

Either way around, this furthers my point about BPA. While I think the first pick is CB, if both Jenkins and Minnefield are gone and LB presents the BPA, it wouldn't surprise me to see LB taken. I can't say as I would like that the most, but again, it wouldn't surprise me. Another thing to consider for this coming draft is what the FA market will look like. With the rookie wage scale in place and teams not having to mortgage the future on their first round picks, it allows them to keep the talent they have and less talent hits the market. At least that's what i'm expecting to happen.

I think a couple of the results of the rookie wage scale will be that teams will begin to draft more for need than just BPA. I also believe that their will be less big dollar free agents because of what happens in the draft. Why should a team go out and sign a FA to a huge 3-4 year contract when they can just draft a guy for a lot less money. Sure the rookie will have growing pains and possibly be a dud, but I have seen plenty of high dollar free agents be a dud, see Antwan Odom. The NFL is more of a business than anything else, and the NFLPA doesn't realize what they did when they complained about rookie salaries. They are going to get the exact opposite effect than what they were looking for.