Where will our losses come from?

[derekshank]

I know we've talked about similar topics in the past, but because we're hurting for stuff to talk about, (and instead of starting a thread like "Is Carson Palmer good enough to win the starting job?") I figured it would be somewhat interesting to get this conversation going again.

We have a lot of people talking about us going 10-6 or 11-5. My question is, which 5 or 6 games will we lose?

Here's my opinion of our toughest games, and whether we'll win them or not.

Week 2 vs Minn - I think we will win, because Culpepper won't be quite so hot without Moss. In Culpepper's first 5 games, he averaged 353 yards/game with 3.6 TD/game. In the next 5 he averaged 235 yards/game, with 1.8 TD/game. He's a good QB, and those numbers are still respectable, but without Moss they are far less potent. Their defense will be much more consistent than last year, but I don't see this being a defense dominated game... and it's in Cincinnati, so I see this as a win.

Week 5 @ Jax - This is probably a loss. We could win it, especially if Fred Taylor is in question, but I don't see us going 5-0, Jacksonville is projected as a playoff team, and it's in their house. A lot to overcome. This game will be a good measuring stick to just how good we are.

Week 7 and 13 vs. Pitt - I think we'll probably win the one at home, but split with them. They still have the most people expecting them to win the division, so I don't think we can expect to sweep them, even if they are taking a step back.

Week 9 and 12 vs. Bal - Again, poised to be a good team this year, (in spite of Boller) but based on what happened at the end of last year, we might have their number. On the other hand, it's too homerish to expect a sweep against a talented rival, so split.

Week 11 vs. IND - At home, possibly in snow, where Indy struggles... still, Peyton Manning is too good, and I think our defense will be just a bit too young to keep up with that offense. All things considered, I think we'll be in it to the end, but you have to give one of the top 5 teams their due. Chances are they'll head back to Indy with a win.

Week 16 vs Buffalo - At home... Losman will be coming on, but will still be a first year QB, and is not a talented as Palmer. Their defense is good, but hopefully we will gel by now, and send them back to NY with a Loss. I see this a win.

Week 17 @ KC - I know a lot of people don't like K.C. However, I do. I see them having a good chance of winning the AFC. If their offense isn't too old, (which I suppose they could be) they are still potent, and their defense is improved (Kendrell Bell, Patrick Surtain, Derrick Johnson) and could be pretty dang decent by the end of the season. They are in a tough division, so won't have the luxury of sending in their reserves, so on the road, we end the regular season with a loss.

That's only 5 losses, but they'll also lose one to some team they shouldn't, like Houston, or Detroit (or, please God no, Cleveland). That's my take on this coming season.

If you don't feel like talking about this again, ignore it, but please at least come up with something creative to talk about. I'm dying here.

[OSUBengal]

I"m going to guess At Jacksonville, at pittsburgh, minnesota at home (this could go both ways), and at baltimore.

12-4 ain't bad.

These are just guesses. I don't think theres any game that we'll be out of.

[derekshank]

I"m going to guess At Jacksonville, at pittsburgh, minnesota at home (this could go both ways), and at baltimore.

12-4 ain't bad.

These are just guesses. I don't think theres any game that we'll be out of.

Why do you think we'll lose to Minnesota at home, but beat Indy? Because our defense will still be learning, or is it Indy being out of the dome? Just curious.

[The Big Orange]

I thin pre bye week we lose maybe 2...Jags and Ravens...Post bye week we lose 2 more...maybe KC and Pitt...

And then we will lose 2 more that we shouldn't...we always seem to lose a couple we shouldn't...maybe Buffalo, Detroit, or Tennessee...hopefully not a home or division loss.

[OSUBengal]

I"m going to guess At Jacksonville, at pittsburgh, minnesota at home (this could go both ways), and at baltimore. 

12-4 ain't bad.

These are just guesses.  I don't think theres any game that we'll be out of.

Why do you think we'll lose to Minnesota at home, but beat Indy? Because our defense will still be learning, or is it Indy being out of the dome? Just curious.

I think Minnesota is a super bowl contender.

They lost Moss, but they still have a pretty good offense. THey've significantly updated their defense. Very dangerous team. I think our defense will still be gelling then.

I didn't even really think about the Indy game. Our D will be in good shape by then. And our D will be better than theirs.

[BengalNation1281]

Minnesota, Indy, at Jax, at Pitt, at KC*, at Baltimore.

6-2 at home, 4-4 on the road = 10-6 and wild-card.

*I'm kinda iffy about this one, but the last day of the season at Arrowhead should be really tough.*

[bengalsLB]

I"m going to guess At Jacksonville, at pittsburgh, minnesota at home (this could go both ways), and at baltimore.  

12-4 ain't bad.

These are just guesses.  I don't think theres any game that we'll be out of.

Why do you think we'll lose to Minnesota at home, but beat Indy? Because our defense will still be learning, or is it Indy being out of the dome? Just curious.

I think Minnesota is a super bowl contender.

They lost Moss, but they still have a pretty good offense. THey've significantly updated their defense. Very dangerous team. I think our defense will still be gelling then.

I didn't even really think about the Indy game. Our D will be in good shape by then. And our D will be better than theirs.

didn't they have a major upgrade in defense last offseason to

we all know how well that worked out

[derekshank]

didn't they (minnesota) have a major upgrade in defense last offseason too

we all know how well that worked out

They're definetly more sound this year

They've got some good guys up front (Keneche Udeze, Darrion, Scott, and 2 DT over 300lbs), great defensive backs (Antoine Winfield, Fred Smoot, Darren Sharper, and Corey Chavous) and fairly decent LB's (Napolean Harris, Sam Cowart, and Dontarrious Thomas)

I just think that with a lack of great RBs (Onterrio Smith was their #1 rusher last season, and they've admitted they are going to rely more on their FB Kleinsasser) and now, no #1 WR, Culpepper will not be able to carry this team to a superbowl.

That defense will be improved, but it's not the Patriots, and frankly, their offense isn't either. They might win their division, but it's the weakest division in the NFL.

[derekshank]

By the way.. when I was looking at the minnesotavikings.com to take a closer look at their defense, I was very impressed with their web site setup for their depth chart. We should petiton the bengals.com to copy it. I was a bit jealous.

[BengalNation1281]

I don't understand why so many people are convinced that Minnesota's offense is going take significant steps back without Moss and Smith. Why, you ask?

1. Last year, and the year before that, the Vikings had several games where they had to use a "RB by committee" style due to suspensions or injuries. When Michael Bennett went down in 2003, Moe Williams stepped up and was effective. When Smith was suspended last year, Mewelde Moore came out of nowhere and stepped up in a big way. Michael Bennett is still a quality runner, Mewelde Moore and Moe Williams both return, and they drafted Ciatrick Fason to give more depth to a RB corps that was already pretty solid. Even without Smith, they have several RBs who have proven that they can fill the starter's shoes when needed.

2. While Moss is a great receiver, he had the benefit of a good supporting cast last year. Marcus Robinson, Nate Burleson, and Kelly Campbell are all very good and, in the case of Campbell, still improving, and drafting Troy Williamson will help to fill the void that Moss left within the next couple of years, if it doesn't happen immediately. The WRs are much better than they are given credit for, especially Robinson, who recaptured the form last year that he displayed when he was in Chicago.

3. Do the WRs have to be Randy Moss when they have one of the best QBs in football tossing them the rock? I think not.

So, for those reasons, I think that Minnesota's offense will be just as dangerous without Moss than it was when he was still around.

But that's just me.

[Kazkal]

Vs Colts will be a score off,

Our D can't stop their O

Their D can't stop our O

So it leads too who get's more interceptions/fumbles.

[AMC]

There's always that one loss you don't count on. I HATE THOSE!

But now with this team it might be that one or two WINS you wouldn't usually count on!

[Kirkendall]

I"m going to guess At Jacksonville, at pittsburgh, minnesota at home (this could go both ways), and at baltimore. 

12-4 ain't bad.

These are just guesses.  I don't think theres any game that we'll be out of.

Why do you think we'll lose to Minnesota at home, but beat Indy? Because our defense will still be learning, or is it Indy being out of the dome? Just curious.

I think Minnesota is a super bowl contender.

They lost Moss, but they still have a pretty good offense. THey've significantly updated their defense. Very dangerous team. I think our defense will still be gelling then.

I didn't even really think about the Indy game. Our D will be in good shape by then. And our D will be better than theirs.

Yea, I agree, Minnesota is going to be tough as nails. On paper, they're one of the top three teams in the league and are definite favorites to win the NFC championship. Go VIKES! And yes, I'm a bit of Vikes homer too because I lived in Minney for a couple of years...

derek --

just think that with a lack of great RBs (Onterrio Smith was their #1 rusher last season, and they've admitted they are going to rely more on their FB Kleinsasser) and now, no #1 WR, Culpepper will not be able to carry this team to a superbowl.

Do not sleep on Malwade Moore. He did well last season as a rookie, and could take a bunch of people by surprise.

Also, consider, with Moss being gone, so does that offensive philosophy -- which our resident KC fan wrote a book on.

An offense that loses Moss, but picks up the defense they have the past two years may have made the Vikings a better team.

Another thing to consider is Tice. He's expected to win. If he fails, he's out. So there's motivation there too. Plus he has $100,000 to put back into his account...

[redsfan2]

I think Coach Lewis gets his fast start that he wants .... Browns .. Vikes ... Bears. We're 3 and 0.

Week 4 Houston. Loss. They've been giving us FITS that last couple times we played, and imho they're one of the better teams that you never hear about.

Jags - We win this one. This is where we learn that the coach made the better choice in Palmer.

Titans .... One of those ones we shouldn't have lost .... but did.

Steelers + Packers = Back to back wins. First crack at the Steelers and we make it a good one. Packers ... we always do well against the NFC. ( at least lately )

Ravens Loss No explanation needed.

Colts Everybody KNOWS we're going to lose this one ..... just like they knew we'd lose against the Chiefs. Yep .. we win this one too.

Ravens II and Steelers II Our first back to back losses of the year.

Peel off 3 more straight wins against Browns .... Lions ... and Bills ( finally )

Chiefs. We've got the Wild Card wrapped up and rest our starters ergo the Chiefs get a hollow win here.

There you have it 10 and 6. That is pretty much the way I've been looking at it since the schedule was announced. Question marks I have with my own picks are ... Houston ... we could keep frustrating them the way the 49ers did with us for years. Green Bay .... they're always tough and this could go either way ... Ravens .... I doubt that even they expect to sweep us and they could be right. KC If our starters get us a lead ..... the 2nd squad Could just hold onto it.

All we got to do now is play the games !!!

[CTBengalsFan]

I"m going to guess At Jacksonville, at pittsburgh, minnesota at home (this could go both ways), and at baltimore.  

12-4 ain't bad.

These are just guesses.  I don't think theres any game that we'll be out of.

Why do you think we'll lose to Minnesota at home, but beat Indy? Because our defense will still be learning, or is it Indy being out of the dome? Just curious.

I think Minnesota is a super bowl contender.

They lost Moss, but they still have a pretty good offense. THey've significantly updated their defense. Very dangerous team. I think our defense will still be gelling then.

I didn't even really think about the Indy game. Our D will be in good shape by then. And our D will be better than theirs.

didn't they have a major upgrade in defense last offseason to

we all know how well that worked out

I think they only added Antoine Winfield last year... now they added Fred Smoot, Pat Williams, Napoleon Harris, and Darren Sharper.

That's QUITE an upgrade, and they will have a top 10 defense. I don't think their offense will slow down too much without Moss (although Matt Birk just had a huge surgery I think, so there's a chance he's not 100% during our game). That game will definitely be a tough one.

[Kirkendall]

They also picked up Sam Cowart and Napoleon Harris -- while not great, they are big-time upgrades from what they had before.

[CBin2k7]

There's always that one loss you don't count on. I HATE THOSE!

But now with this team it might be that one or two WINS you wouldn't usually count on!

Taking care of the games they should take care of will be difficult. Everyone says the Bengals should win at Detroit. But Detroit is an up and coming team playing at home. The Bengals rarely win at Tennessee, I think once all time. Green Bay is still Green Bay. They can look really good or be really bad. Chicago has a real good defense and the Texans are a surprise team waiting to happen that could easily come to Cincy and win.

With that said and done my Bengal pride comes through and says 10-6

with losses to Baltimore twice

at Pittsburgh

at Detroit

Indy

at Tennessee