Run Defence

[derekshank]

All this turnover talk shows one thing...if you base great revelations on stats:

Turnover differential rankings coincide with who wins division titles and earns playoff spots in the AFC. It doesn't look like a factor at all in the NFC.

Your research there Shankster shows that you've got all four AFC division winners and 1 AFC wildcard team out of the top 8. Of the other 2 AFC teams in the top 8, you've got 2 w/ winning records.

Carolina is the only NFC team in the top 8. The only AFC playoff team not in the top 8 is the Donkeys who nobody should count them anyway because they suck 

How's that for assumptions.

I don't know why we're still talking about this. Points scored/allowed MUST be the most important stat. At the end of each game, the refs look at the scoreboard to determine the winner, not the turnover margin.

But if I must continue arguing my point, I refer to years 2003, and 2002.

2003:

4 playoff teams were not in the top 15 in turnovers, but all 15 were in the top 15 in poin differential (including all of the top 10)

There were 6 non-playoff teams in the top 15 in turnovers, and 5 of those teams had losing records. However, only two teams that were in the top 15 in point differential that didn't make the playoffs, and neither of them were in the top 10.

2002:

7 non-playoff teams were in the top 15 in turnovers, meaning only 8 playoff teams were in the top 15 in turnovers. 3 playoff teams ranked, 19th, 24th, and 28th in turnovers.

10 of the 12 playoff teams were in the top 15 in point differential, and no team lower than 16th in this category mad the playoffs.

How's that for assumptions?

Anyway, I'm not sure how this discussion got started. I think my point was just that the Bengals needed to focus more on not allowing people to score so many points, instead of always going for an interception. Bend-but-don't-break defenses are more effective than the more exciting high tunrnover defenses. That is my only point.

Once again, I'm not saying turnovers are not important, but just not as important as points. The year the Rams won the superbowl their offense gave up the ball more than their defense took it away, and that was because they could score more points than their opponents. enough said. I doubt I will post on this discussion again, all these stats are making me tired.

[schweinhart]

I doubt I will post on this discussion again, all these stats are making me tired.

Why Shankster, don't poop out already -- it's not even preseason yet

Team stats can be good indicators of some things but never equal the bottom line, which in fact equals only that the team scoring the most points wins.

No doubt points differential comes as close to any to approximate this bottom line because the more games a team wins, the more it adds points to the positive column of the differential column. And the more games a team wins, the greater it's chances for the playoffs.

While all of this is as obvious as it seem and you are indeed correct in stating that points are the only key stat, isn't it interesting note how much more valuable turnover differential seems to be for AFC teams than NFC teams.

In 2004, 7 of the top 8 NFL teams in turnover differential were AFC teams -- all with winning records and 5 of 6 AFC playoff teams including all 4 division winners.

In 2003, a similar thing happened.

Of the top 9 NFL teams in TO diff only 5 are AFC teams but those 5 AFC teams represent -- once again -- all 4 division winners and a wildcard, excluding -- once again -- the reviled Donkeys.

2 season do not make a pattern but it does seem unusual that the TO diff bears as little relevance as it does in the NFC:

2004: 1 NFC team in top 8 and team has losing record.

2003: 4 NFC teams in top 9, including 2 division winners but 1 other non-playoff team w/ winning record and another team w/ losing record.

Obviously, TO diff is not an end-all stat the way pts diff is, but the advantages of being in the right column of it are in plain sight.

And if the Bengals run D can add some strips to rise higher in the right side of that column in addition to getting more 3 and outs than less because of bending-but-not-breaking, then we will see the D better position the team for more wins.