Don's Week 1 Picks

[thedon]

Sorry guys there will be some misspells the article hasn't gone through editing and I was running close to the deadline. Season predictions will be up Saturday at the latest.

Thxs

WEEK 1 LEAGUE PICKS

By TheDon

Analyst/Godfather

Staff Writer for http://www.cowboysaddicts.com

CONGRATULATIONS TO THE 2012 DON’S PREDICTION LEAGUE CHAMPIONS

*** eRandall38 from

http://forums.49ers.com/ ***

*** Charlie Brown from http://cowboysaddicts.com/***

Quick Hits

• For the past 13 years at least two teams with losing records make it into the playoffs and surprise everyone. This year I see two teams that could continue that streak going: New Orleans and Kansas City.
  
• Last year five teams started the season with a rookie quarterback only one won his debut: Robert Griffin III. This year we have three teams starting either a rookie or a quarterback with zero experience.
  
• For the past six seasons home teams average 10 wins on week 1, last year it was nine.
  
• Remember every year at least four new teams get into the post season. Which are the teams that are going to make it this year and which teams will fall short?
  
• I hope I can see the day that another position other than Quarterback or Running Back wins the MVP if not they should change the name of the award.
  
• Since is week 1, expect several upsets. Jim Mora said it best "you think you know, but you don't know"
  

On to the games

Baltimore at Denver -8 Ovr/Und 48.5

Everyone is underestimating the reigning champions because they went into a complete overhaul during the offseason. What people tend to forget was that team had one of the worst defenses during the season filled with players that had past their prime. On the other side everyone are almost already giving the AFC Championship to the Broncos without even playing one game. Everyone is looking at the Denver’s offense but ignoring their defense, a defense that’s missing both of their premier pass-rushers and their best corner. I expect the Broncos to win at home because is a huge advantage to start the season but I also expect a closer game that the line suggest. Also take the over on this game.

Straight: DEN

Spread: BAL

Ovr/Und: OVR

New England at Baltimore 10.5 Ovr/Und 49.5

A few days ago the starting quarterback for the Buffalo Bills was undrafted free agent QB Jeff Tuel. Since then the Bills have announced rookie QB EJ Manuel will start the game. Everyone was worried about New England’s offense with all that happened in the offseason but people forget that as long as the Patriots have Tom Brady and Bill Belichick on that team there’s really nothing to worry. What I’ve been very excited about the Patriots actually is their defense. I actually have them in several of my fantasy teams. This is a unit that has made changes the past few years from being a liability to being strength. They’re one of the unit’s that generate the most turnovers in the NFL and that’s what wins games. Take the Patriots and the points but go with the under.

Straight: NE

Spread: NE

Ovr/Und: Und

Tennessee at Pittsburgh 7 Ovr/Und 41.5

This game has the making of an upset special. Both teams have a bad 2012 season. Pittsburgh is entering the year with a lot of question marks on offense and defense so they’re really hard to figure out right now. I like how the Titans upgraded their offensive line this offseason and their defense is underrated but, I still have a hard time trusting Jake Locker. I suggest to stay away of this game but if you’re going to bet go with the points.

Straight: PIT

Spread:TEN

Ovr/Und: Und

Atlanta at New Orleans -3 Ovr/Und 54

UPSET OF THE WEEK

A lot of people in the media believe that Sean Payton will comeback from his suspension and bring this team back to their glory days and really ignore the holes this team has. Not only this team is switching to a 3-4 defense this season they brought Rob Ryan to run it a coordinator that’s well known for overcomplicating his system and this team he’s doing it to an unit that wasn’t built to be a 3-4 defense. The superdome is one of the hardest venues to play in the NFL specially this being the first game of the season and the return of Payton. Still I expect the Falcons to overcome this and take the victory. Bet the over on this game both teams have high-scoring offenses and not the best defenses.

Straight: ATL

Spread: ATL

Ovr/Und: Ovr

Tampa Bay at New York Jets 3 Ovr/Und 40.5

I wish I had something nice to say to all my New York Jets followers but they know as well as I do that their team is a complete mess. The only bright side I can see, is that they get a chance to see Geno Smith play for the start of the season and that could end up determine, if next year this team draft one of the future franchise quarterbacks or they stick with Smith. The Buccaneers are starting the season with questions to their o-line and pass-rush but still I see a better unit and a stronger locker room.

Straight:TB

Spread: TB

Ovr/Und: UND

Kansas City at Jacksonville 3.5 Ovr/Und 41

Another game that could turn into an upset, it’s no secret that I believe the Chiefs will be one of the surprise teams of the 2013 season. They have an underrated defense that was one of the best last season that got overlooked, because of how bad their offense was. Alex Smith has been a lot better the past few years and I truly believe he will have a good chemistry with Andy Reid. I expect the Jaguars to be better than most people think but in this case I have to go with my surprise team.

Straight: KC

Spread: KC

Ovr/Und: OVR

Seattle at Carolina 3 Ovr/Und 45.5

Seattle is a team that usually doesn’t travel well east but being that this is the first game of the season I wouldn’t be putting too much into it. The Seahawks are one of those teams that look even better than they did last season where they were only five yards away of the NFC Championship. They are one of the teams with the most depth in the NFL. I really like Caroline’s defense Luke Kuechly can be the DMVP of this year and I don’t know if there’s a team with a better front-four in the NFL. Both rookie defensive tackles looked great during preseason and I have Star Lotulelei penciled as this year Defensive Rookie of the year. Expect a low scoring game with the visiting team taking the win.

Straight:SEA

Spread:SEA

Ovr/Und:UND

Cincinnati at Chicago 3 Ovr/Und 42.5

This could be one of the best games of week 1. I like how good Chicago’s offensive line looked during the preseason but they’ll have to survive the test of the new $50 million dollar man on the Bengals defense Geno Atkins this weekend, if they do then you can call me a believer. I have the Bengals as one of my favorite teams in the AFC this season and I expect them to start gun blazing from week one. Take the Bengals and Over on this one.

Straight: CIN

Spread: CIN

Ovr/Und: OVR

Miami at Cleveland 1 Ovr/Und 40.5

Count me as one of the people that didn’t bought the stock of the free agency winners Miami Dolphins. Yes they brought some offensive weapons for Tannenhill but they lost All-Pro tackle Jake Long and didn’t replace him with anybody. Lamar Miller won the running back starting position by default and they lost tight end Dustin Keller for the season. On the other hand, count me as one that’s drinking the Cleveland Browns Kool-aid. The browns signed Norv Turner to handle the offense and use his magic on Weeden and they also brought Ray Horton to handle the defense. This team is one year away of being a serious playoffs contender but they could sneak this year in a really average AFC conference.

Straight:CLE

Spread: CLE

Ovr/Und: OVR

Minnesota at Detroit -4.5 Ovr/Und 47

These two teams worry me a lot this season. On one part, I consider Minnesota’s playoffs appearance last year a fluke based on one of the best season a running back has ever had but in reality is an average team with a below average quarterback. On the other hand Detroit has a really good d-line but still suffers from the same problems in secondary. The addition of Reggie Bush was good but this team will always go as far as Calvin Johnson can take them. Take the home team on this one but I wouldn’t bet my Benjamin’s on this game.

Straight: DET

Spread: DET

Ovr/Und: UND

Oakland at Indianapolis -9.5 Ovr/Und 47

I stated on my season predictions that the Raiders this season could end up being the worst team ever in the NFL if that’s even achievable. I haven’t seen a worst assembled team in the NFL in all the years I’ve been following. What Raiders fans should be asking is: Will the Raiders draft a franchise quarterback with the first overall pick next year or a one in a lifetime defensive end?

The Colts had really easy schedules last year that help them propel to the playoffs. This year they are a better year but could end up missing the playoffs if that makes any sense. Anyway take the Colts to win and cover this week.

Straight:IND

Spread: IND

Ovr/Und: UND

San Francisco at Green bay -4.5 Ovr/Und 49

What a waste of a game for a week one matchup. This is the type of games we all want to see during November when the games matter a lot more. This will be a game of inches that either side can win. Forget about the Divisional game last year where Kaepernick completely humiliated the Packers defense that won’t happen this time around. I expect a close game that could end up being decided by three points.

Straight: SF

Spread: GB

Ovr/Und: OVR

Arizona at St. Louis : -4.5 Ovr/Und 41

Don’t count me as a Carson Palmer believer; I feel that everyone got stuck with the image of Palmer before his knee injury in their head and either ignore or forget what he has done since then. Palmer is an above average quarterback that turns the ball over way too much for my liking. I don’t expect the Cardinals to do great this year and I do expect them drafting his replacement next year. On the other hand I have been high on the Rams since they hired Jeff Fisher. I liked what he has done to fix the team; I loved the RGIII trade that is bringing all the pieces that will make this team good for years to come. Take the Rams to win this game and don’t be surprised if they sneak into the playoffs this year.

Straight: STL

Spread: STL

Ovr/Und: UND

New York Giants at Dallas: -3 Ovr/Und 49

Last year I picked the Cowboys as an upset to beat the 2011 champions and break the streak of Super Bowl Champions winning the first game of the season. This year I’m picking the Cowboys to break another streak, and that one is the 4-0 record that Eli Manning and the Giants have at what’s now called AT&T stadium. It’s not like the games have been one-sided, last year’s game literally came down to three fingers. If Dez Bryant gets that hand inside this record would had been already broken. The Giants are coming into this game with even more question marks in their offensive line than the Cowboys if that’s even possible and their defensive line is not what it used to be. Take the Cowboys and the over on this one.

Straight: DAL

Spread: DAL

Ovr/Und: OVR

Philadelphia at Washington : -3.5 Ovr/Und 50.5

UPSET OF THE WEEK

I’m sorry, I’m a believe it when I see it type of guy. Yes, RGIII is an exceptional athlete but, I don’t expect him to come from an ACL injury suffered in January and be the same type of explosive player he was last season seven months after. I would have felt better about this game if Kirk Cousins was healthier, but for this week I’m not taking the Redskins. I expect Chip Kelly’s offense to catch the Redskin’s off guard just like they did last year to the rest of the NFL with the pistol offense. I don’t like the Eagles defense and that’s a reason why I don’t have them going far this year but this week I would take the Eagles and the over.

Straight: PHI

Spread: PHI

Ovr/Und: Ovr

Houston at San Diego: 3.5 Ovr/Und 44

San Diego is a team that missed their window; Phillip Rivers has completely lost his mojo. He just last confidence and can’t make the throws he used to make. I’m worried about that offensive line and secondary I just see a team that completely lost their way. Houston is entering the season with some question marks but they still have one of the best defenses in the game. Take the Texans to win and cover.

Straight: HOU

Spread:HOU

Ovr/Und: OVR

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