Schweinhart 1st Round Mock

[schweinhart]

1. Texans: Vince Young QB: On February 8, the Falcons will likely opt for Option B with QB David Carr, signing him to a 2 year deal with a $5.5 million signing bonus then either trade him during preseason or keep him around for 1 more year. But Texans owner Bob McNair can't risk losing Houston's native son to either his market competition in New Orleans or former Houston Oilers owner Bud Adams in Tennessee.

2. Saints: Reggie Bush RB: Bush brings his brand of excitement to a city in need of something to cheer for.

3. Titans: Matt Leinart QB: Chow knows Leinart is poised and accurate enough to be the Titans signal caller for the forseeable future.

4. Jets: D'Brickashaw Ferguson LT: D'Brick's decision to participate in the Senior Bowl and then excel there dispels any question that he is a dedicated player with a lot of athletic ability at a premium position.

5. Packers: DeAngelo Williams RB: The Packer front office lets free agent RBs Ahman Green, Najeh Davenport, and Tony Fisher all pack their bags for elsewhere as it is decided that the stick of dynamite known as DeAngelo is just what the team needs to blow up the Frozen Tundra.

6. Raiders: Mario Williams DE: Al Davis knows the best defensive player at this impact position when he sees him.

7. 49ers: AJ Hawk LB: Mike Nolan understands he's a lucky man when the best overall defensive player in the draft falls to him.

8. Bills: Vernon Davis TE: It takes some time before reason prevails over the collective senility between Grandpa Levy and Dick Jauron, but by the time they pick they realize that Davis is just a flat out freak of nature who immediately improves the ability of the Bills offense to move the ball despite their medicocre QB duo.

9. Lions: Jay Cutler QB: Cutler is just what a consummate front office loser like Matt Millen needs to keep his job -- hope.

10. Cardinals: Mike Huff DB : The addition of Huff turns the Zona secondary into one of the best in the NFC.

11. Rams: Tye Hill CB: The Rams need help all over the place on defense but decide that Hill takes the most pressure off the quickest with his speed and superb coverage skills.

12. Browns: Chad Greenway LB: Romeo flashes back to a time when he had a dominating fleet of LBs and would like to start assembling the same thing in Cleveland.

13. Ravens: Jimmy Williams DB: The Chris McAlister Show grows old and the Ravens decide to try Williams at corner even if C-Mac stays another year.

14. Eagles: Santonio Holmes WR: Help is on the way for Donovan McNabb with this route-running machine who can stretch the field.

15. Falcons: Eric Winston G/T: Despite the reports of his 1st round demise, Winston shines in his last chance to prove he's the next best tackle prospect behind Ferguson, and the Falcons take notice.

16. Dolphins: Brodrick Bunkley DL: Given his experience with potheads and his LSU connection, Saban looks hard at Claude Wroten but ultimately decides it's not worth the risk when what he needs on the defensive line is there in Bunkley, who has separated himself among the pack of DT prospects.

17. Vikings: Laurence Maroney RB: The Vikings peg the explosive Maroney as their starter to complement a decent RB corps in Mewelde Moore and Ciatrick Fason.

18. Cowboys: Marcus McNeil RT: Parcells wants a Hoss who can move at RT and gets it with this Garguantan.

19. Chargers: Sinorice Moss WR: The Bolts need a better threat at WR than what they have and Moss gives them what they've lacked with his speed and ability to get open anywhere on the field.

20. Chiefs: Haloti Ngata DT: The Chiefs need a big body up front and roll with this giant even if at times he looks more like his name should be Wholelotta Nada.

21. Patriots: Bobby Carpenter LB: Genius Bill knows what he wants in his 3-4 linebackers and Carpenter has more of that any other LB in the draft.

22. Broncos: LenDale White RB: The Bronocos need a young power runner to share time with the speed runner Tatum Bell. White is the best available to fit the bill and can be molded to fit what the Broncos want in a one-cut up the field runner.

23. Buccaneers: Winston Justice T: The Bucs want better play on the offensive line and get it with this right tackle who should be versatile enough to switch to LT when his time comes.

24. Bengals: Demetrius Williams WR: It all starts up front for the Bengals, but it has to all end up down the field if they're going to reach the Super Bowl. If Henry is gone, the Bengals need to make that same kind of long-term investment at WR that they did with the 1st round talent in the 3rd round in Henry who unfortunately only has a 5th grade mind.

25. Giants: D'Qwell Jackson LB: Coughlin gets giddy to see this roving, wrecking machine still available and he will find a place for D'Qwell to immediatley start knocking the crud out of people.

26. Bears: Leonard Pope TE: A definite team need gets filled with this giant pass-catcher. His blocking will come along but even without it, Rex Grossman's life just got a whole lot easier.

27. Panthers: Nick Mangold C/G: Mangold has earned his way into the 1st round and will start right away at center for the Panthers.

28. Jaguars: Marcedes Lewis TE: Another tall target for Leftwich should boost the Jaguars offense enough to get it over the hump where it will pose serious problems for AFC defenses.

29. Broncos: KO Simpson FS: Range in coverage separates KO from the safety pack and his job will be made easier patrolling behind the Broncos athletic linebackers.

30. Colts: Mathias Kiwanuka DE: The Colts will want to replace free agent Raheem Brock and Kiwi gives them a great option on stunts to confuse the other team's run game and pressure their QBs.

31. Steelers: Tamba Hali DE: Hali comes in about 15 pounds less than what Cowher wants at DE in the 3-4 but he knows Hali will add muscle and already makes up for what he might lack in weight with unparalleled effort and superb conditioning.

32. Seahawks: Chad Jackson WR: The Seahawks hope Jackson can offset age and free agent loss at the WR position.

[NJ29]

I don't know man.... It's cool if you want us to take Williams, but I'm not completely sold.

[Stripes]

I don't think we neccessarily need that deep threat / field stretcher to go deep into the playoffs (assuming the defense shows any improvement). It's hard to argue with Schweiny, the resident Bengal guru, but nonetheless I will probably jump into a frozen creek if we take a wideout in round 1. Where will I find such a creek in late April you ask? That's another story.

[thepudgester]

I should've went with my gut and stopped reading after I saw the Top 3... Ridiculous. This is a joke right? The whole first round, original, but completely ridiculous.

[Whur CHad At?]

ARE

YOU

KIDDING?!?!?!

[schweinhart]

I should've went with my gut and stopped reading after I saw the Top 3... Ridiculous. This is a joke right? The whole first round, original, but completely ridiculous.

Well, there, Fudgester

I did go back and read your Mel Kiperesque 1st round Mock even though I did originally go with my gut and not read it.

It's interesting that other than your Mockspert preference for Wholelotta Nada and my intrigue with DeAngelo Williams, we both have 9 of the same Top 10 -- not in the same order of course. So ridiculous is as ridiculous does.

No doubt the prevalent Mockspert pick at #1 overall is Reggie Bush by the Texans and the Gary Kubiak press conference after he was hired by Texans owner Bob McNair fed fuel to that by the way Kubiak said how much he was looking forward to working with David Carr. But a closer look would have to send up the flag --why wouldn't he trump up Carr, say how good he is and can be? It's not like the Texans are going to dump Carr outright without picking up an option on him. Their not gonna transition tag him and get nothing in return if somebody else gets him for more than the Top 10 average or franchise him at the Top 5 pay when they can 2 year deal him with greater options available to them to keep or deal him.

The Texans will play their hand by February 19. They will either pick up the option to sign Carr to a 2 year deal ($5 mill salary 2006 and $5.25 in 2007) with a $5.5 mill signing bonus or they go with the 3 year deal ($5.25 mill, $5.25, and $6) with an $8 mill bonus. If the Texans choose the second, then they do plan on keeping Carr. If they go with the 1st option, they may keep him around for 1 year but would position themselves to trade Carr and eat the $5.5 mill option bonus (especially if it's after June 1st and they can move it into the potentially uncapped year of 2007).

If you boil it down, Kubiak probably hopes like hell that McNair wants Vince #1 because Vince will single-handedly revive the interest in the Texans among its fans base regardless of how he turns out to be in 4 years. If Kubiak rolls with Carr and his 2.8 million sacks over the past 4 years, he's putting his backside on the line bigtime if Carr continues to do next to nothing. Two things are for sure -- the Texans O-line is so bad that one offseason won't fix the protection problems and Vince Young will not get sacked like Carr does.

[NJ29]

I understand your interest in Williams, but not in the first.

Most people have him as a early third round guy, and taking him in the first seems to be an obvious reach, to me anyways. I understand your reasoning of why Vince Young would go to the Texans, but I don't see the Saints taking Bush with McCallister there, especially wit their QB troubles.

[thepudgester]

Notice, schweinhart, how I added that I DID NOT think the texans would take Bush. I think they will trade down, the logical move. You should've read further.

Also, I understand my opinion wasn't exactly constructive criticism haha. So I am sorry for that because it did come off harsh. But please, explain further the pick of Demetrius Williams at 24...

[kingwilly]

Demetrius Williams will not go in the first round by any team. Not with the defensive talent, and depth at TE and O-line in this draft.

Demetrius as a pick by Cincy would not be terrible...in the 3rd/4th round. If WR becomes a dire need (CH gone, KW gone) then taking Chad Jackson in the second would serve us better. Plus, FA could net us another WR.

The rest of you draft has some wierdness:

2. Saints - unless McAllister's rehab is going badly, there is no reason why they'd take him. McCallister just got fat $. Thier need is QB (FA's) so I see them trading down to Bush's highest bidder (SF, AZ CLE, PHI may be candidates to move up.)

8. Bills - have big gaps on D with several FA's about to leave. I think Davis is a reach at 8. I think they pull the trigger on Huff here.

11. Rams - I don't see Tye Hill going so high. He may even fall to us at 24. A better pick would be the more versatile Williams.

20 Chiefs - Ngata. They'd crap themselves if Ngata fell this far. He'll be gone by #12. Chiefs at 20 could grab a quality LB, CB and S. Even a TE to tutor under Big Tony.

21. Patriots - With Ryans, Lawson and the UTEP LB still on the board, Carpenter is a reach here. Manny lawson is more suited for thier style.

22. Bronco's - Lendale is underrated by most. I think he could go even higher. BUT Denver has a stable of RB's (Sapp, Cobbs, Anderson, Dayne, Miree, Bell) not really their need. O-Line, WR and D-line bigger issues.

....good but weird.

[NJ29]

Demetrius Williams will not go in the first round by any team. Not with the defensive talent, and depth at TE and O-line in this draft.

Demetrius as a pick by Cincy would not be terrible...in the 3rd/4th round. If WR becomes a dire need (CH gone, KW gone) then taking Chad Jackson in the second would serve us better. Plus, FA could net us another WR.

The rest of you draft has some wierdness:

2. Saints - unless McAllister's rehab is going badly, there is no reason why they'd take him. McCallister just got fat $. Thier need is QB (FA's) so I see them trading down to Bush's highest bidder (SF, AZ CLE, PHI may be candidates to move up.)

8. Bills - have big gaps on D with several FA's about to leave. I think Davis is a reach at 8. I think they pull the trigger on Huff here.

11. Rams - I don't see Tye Hill going so high. He may even fall to us at 24. A better pick would be the more versatile Williams.

20 Chiefs - Ngata. They'd crap themselves if Ngata fell this far. He'll be gone by #12. Chiefs at 20 could grab a quality LB, CB and S. Even a TE to tutor under Big Tony.

21. Patriots - With Ryans, Lawson and the UTEP LB still on the board, Carpenter is a reach here. Manny lawson is more suited for thier style.

22. Bronco's - Lendale is underrated by most. I think he could go even higher. BUT Denver has a stable of RB's (Sapp, Cobbs, Anderson, Dayne, Miree, Bell) not really their need. O-Line, WR and D-line bigger issues.

....good but weird.

Yo! That about somes up my issues with this mock.

[schweinhart]

Demetrius Williams will not go in the first round by any team. Not with the defensive talent, and depth at TE and O-line in this draft.

Demetrius as a pick by Cincy would not be terrible...in the 3rd/4th round. If WR becomes a dire need (CH gone, KW gone) then taking Chad Jackson in the second would serve us better. Plus, FA could net us another WR.

The rest of you draft has some wierdness:

2. Saints - unless McAllister's rehab is going badly, there is no reason why they'd take him. McCallister just got fat $. Thier need is QB (FA's) so I see them trading down to Bush's highest bidder (SF, AZ CLE, PHI may be candidates to move up.)

8. Bills - have big gaps on D with several FA's about to leave. I think Davis is a reach at 8. I think they pull the trigger on Huff here.

11. Rams - I don't see Tye Hill going so high. He may even fall to us at 24. A better pick would be the more versatile Williams.

20 Chiefs - Ngata. They'd crap themselves if Ngata fell this far. He'll be gone by #12. Chiefs at 20 could grab a quality LB, CB and S. Even a TE to tutor under Big Tony.

21. Patriots - With Ryans, Lawson and the UTEP LB still on the board, Carpenter is a reach here. Manny lawson is more suited for thier style.

22. Bronco's - Lendale is underrated by most. I think he could go even higher. BUT Denver has a stable of RB's (Sapp, Cobbs, Anderson, Dayne, Miree, Bell) not really their need. O-Line, WR and D-line bigger issues.

....good but weird.

Yo! That about somes up my issues with this mock.

Ah yes, issues!

2. Saints. It might be better to consider Reggie Bush as much of a RB as a WEAPON. Az Hakim is a free agent and Bush would top Devery Henderson as the 3rd WR, just as Az did. Another UFA is Michael Lewis -- anybody remember this freak? He was as good as any KR and PR in the game until last year, which he missed. Bush would replace him. The Deuce issue is a good one and one that would make the Saints think hard about Bush's trade value if Vince Young goes 1st. Deuce's contract is largely one of these backloaded mirages but there still enough up front coin in a $7 mill signing bonus and another $5.5 mill in roster/option bonus due in 2006 to compound any decision about Bush. Deuce is recovering from a ACL tear but there's no reason to expect he won't return to form. Even with Deuce, Reggie will still get lots of touches and clears out the rest of the backfield of older free agent types. Their need for a QB is pressing, but the difference between Leinart in the 1st and Brodie Croyle in the 2nd probably would not be enough to pick Leinart and pass on Bush if he's there or else trade the pick.

8. Huff would be great pick for the Bills, especially if they don't bid for Nate Clements. But Davis gives them a weapon they need where they need it most -- on offense. If you haven't watched him play, what he clocks and lifts might be enough to sway you into recognizing he is a Top 10 player, who is not only easily the best TE in the draft but also the most able to line up as a 3rd WR in the slot. Davis is the freak of this draft.

11. No corner compares to Hill in this draft for the combination of speed and coverage skills IMO. The only downside issue with him is his height. Williams remains a question mark as to whether he's a CB or a FS, which might drop him even further than 13 where I got him if the Ratbirds don't think he can swing enough CB. I've got doubts about Williams ability to play CB. If the teams got them, that'll pretty much turn into a safety and drop him a lot.

20. Wholelotta Nada is a popular pick for Top 10. But after watching him play twice, I'd say there will be some questions about how well he'll be able to play with leverage and balance at the next level. No question there are some tall DTs thriving in the NFL, but Ngata's tendency is to get turned into dead weight by playing too high and move more than he needs to, which makes him an easy target to knock of balance because he's got to overcome the distribution of his own weight and he's not strong enough to swing his lard a$$ back in the opposite direction. The greater the hype, the harder they fall....and he will drop if these doubts surface about him depsite his obvious physical size and impressive athleticism for somebody that big.

21. No way DeMeco Ryans, Manny Lawson, or Thomas Howard are better suited for the Pats 3-4 under Belichick than Carpenter. None of them are as tough or as active or as versatile as Carpenter, who would be able to step in for Willie McGinest as easily as he could Mike Vrabel. Just flat out not true for any of the others.

22. The Broncs need the one-cut, upfield power runner with speed that they lost in Reuben Droughns. They got a quick fix in Ron Dayne and may try to re-sign him, but I doubt they see him as the long-term answer for a power to RB to complement Tatum Bell. Mike Anderson is 32 years old IIRC and only a featured running RB instead of FB until they get a better power back, which LenDale White would be.

And lastly, Demetrius Williams....He'll make or break where he goes in the combine, but he should already be on folks lists for a late 1st/early 2nd. If he's not, you might want to update that. It's more important for the Bengals to have their vertical arsenal in tact and backed-up than it is for them to upgrade any position on defense with a 1st rounder who, given the talent that's likely to fall there, won't be leaps and bounds better than what they'll find available to them at those same positions in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

[thepudgester]

Since when is WR a 1st Round need!?

Plus, Williams is not Late 1st/Early 2nd....try Late 2nd/Mid 3rd. He has done nothing to deserve that stock raise. I think he has potential, but not in the 1st or 2nd for that matter for us.

[schweinhart]

Since when is WR a 1st Round need!?

Plus, Williams is not Late 1st/Early 2nd....try Late 2nd/Mid 3rd. He has done nothing to deserve that stock raise. I think he has potential, but not in the 1st or 2nd for that matter for us.

More like "When will" than "Since when". No Henry and no K-Dub would pretty much make WR a 1st round need IMO. I like Kevin Walter and all and think that Tab Perry has got some good upside, but seriously, neither of those two or the luminous P.K. Sams is going to give the Bengals the 3rd WR that they need to maintain the vertical threat that has to be there if the run game is to open up for Rudi and the deep ball to any of the 3 WRs is gonna keep DBs off balance. 3rd WR is not just a back-up position. It is a vital position and the Bengals vertical passing game is the most vital component of the team if there's to be had much hope for making a serious run in the post-season in 2006.

Williams not a Late 1st/Early 2nd? Only time will tell and a lot of that's up to him. There may be differing opinions about him but he looks a whole lot like Chad to me. (Mike Mayock said Keenan McCardell). Anyways, he'd have to up his game obviously to even hold Chad's socks, but I'm not seeing anybody else close to him for what the Bengals will need as a 3rd WR who would also be Chad's back-up if anything happened to Chad.

[kentjett]

If there is one position that the saints have talent at, it is RB. They need a back up due to Duece's injuries but not in the first round. The Bengals three biggest needs are the three deepest positions in the draft (TE,S,DT)WR is the weakest position in the draft, probably the weakest WR draft I've ever seen. You are right about Williams rising up everbody's board but the only reason his stock is rising so much is because of the weak WR talent. Any other year,Williams is a third round draft pick. Broncos will not pick a RB in the first round, maybe in the second. Eric Winston's stock is declining really fast and Winston Justice's stock is rising so I'd have to disagree w/ that pick as well. There is no way Ngata makes it out of the top 15. White will be drafted before Maroney. I do agree w/ Tye Hill getting drafted in the top 15 but Moss going in the top 20 is a stretch. In my own opinion, this mock is a little jacked up but your guess is a good as mine. I can guarantee one thing, there will not be one mock draft that is anywhere close to being exactly right.

[kingwilly]

2. Saints. It might be better to consider Reggie Bush as much of a RB as a WEAPON. Az Hakim is a free agent and Bush would top Devery Henderson as the 3rd WR, just as Az did. Another UFA is Michael Lewis -- anybody remember this freak? He was as good as any KR and PR in the game until last year, which he missed. Bush would replace him. The Deuce issue is a good one and one that would make the Saints think hard about Bush's trade value if Vince Young goes 1st. Deuce's contract is largely one of these backloaded mirages but there still enough up front coin in a $7 mill signing bonus and another $5.5 mill in roster/option bonus due in 2006 to compound any decision about Bush. Deuce is recovering from a ACL tear but there's no reason to expect he won't return to form. Even with Deuce, Reggie will still get lots of touches and clears out the rest of the backfield of older free agent types. Their need for a QB is pressing, but the difference between Leinart in the 1st and Brodie Croyle in the 2nd probably would not be enough to pick Leinart and pass on Bush if he's there or else trade the pick.

Schweiny, you are really stretching it here. NO ONE drafts a guy like Bush to return kicks and punts. Too much money will be tied up in him to set him back there and be a kamikazee pilot. Does LT, Edge, or any other shake-n-bake RB run back anything???? Hells no. Don't tell me that because Michael Lewis, an undrafted beer truck driver is an UFA, is one your rationale's for having the Saints go for Bush. I don't think the Saints have a need for Reggie Bush. They may have a need for WR's and/or KR's....no GM is going to dump $20MM in a signing bouns and 8-10/yr for 5 years on a guys who;s gonna play in the slot, back-up Deuce and run back kicks...no way, not with the defensive talen right there, not with D'Brick and not with the chance to trade-down and pick up additional picks, that they sorely need. If they need another RB, WR or Kamikaee special teamer, then they can get them in FA or later in the draft.....

8. Huff would be great pick for the Bills, especially if they don't bid for Nate Clements. But Davis gives them a weapon they need where they need it most -- on offense. If you haven't watched him play, what he clocks and lifts might be enough to sway you into recognizing he is a Top 10 player, who is not only easily the best TE in the draft but also the most able to line up as a 3rd WR in the slot. Davis is the freak of this draft.

Bills need to repair their D. Davis is AWESOME but not even the BPA at 8. So, he would be a reach. THe Bills need to address their D.

11. No corner compares to Hill in this draft for the combination of speed and coverage skills IMO. The only downside issue with him is his height. Williams remains a question mark as to whether he's a CB or a FS, which might drop him even further than 13 where I got him if the Ratbirds don't think he can swing enough CB. I've got doubts about Williams ability to play CB. If the teams got them, that'll pretty much turn into a safety and drop him a lot.

Hill got cooked by Moss at the Senior Bowl. His talent may be there but reconciling his bad play at that game is not done by saying "but he's huge" or "but he runs a 4.18" or "he runs back kicks". He is a good 1st round CB but not near a top 10/11 pick. Maybe Top 15, more like top 25. Rams need tons of players, also another team who may trade down.

21. No way DeMeco Ryans, Manny Lawson, or Thomas Howard are better suited for the Pats 3-4 under Belichick than Carpenter. None of them are as tough or as active or as versatile as Carpenter, who would be able to step in for Willie McGinest as easily as he could Mike Vrabel. Just flat out not true for any of the others.

First off, Carpenter played in a 4-3 with the browneyes. He is not suited to a 3-4. Secondly, Bellichicks OLB's are savage pass rushers, and a guy like Lawson is the consumate rangy, speed freak who can get to the QB and mainatin his position/beat a block to make a play......in a 3-4, whihc is the Pat's scheme. Carpenter actually would be good in Cincy, to step in for B-Simmons.

22. The Broncs need the one-cut, upfield power runner with speed that they lost in Reuben Droughns. They got a quick fix in Ron Dayne and may try to re-sign him, but I doubt they see him as the long-term answer for a power to RB to complement Tatum Bell. Mike Anderson is 32 years old IIRC and only a featured running RB instead of FB until they get a better power back, which LenDale White would be.

Hello? Ever heard of Tatum Bell? One cut, power rusher? Cedric Cobbs, fomerly of Arkansas? Both are the ideal backs for Mr. Robots power rush game. There is no need in Denver for another RB. None. Nada. What they do have is a crappy WR corp that needs fresh talent. Rod Smith isn;t getting any younger and Lelie drops alot of balls and runs sloppy routes. Thye would do well to take your Demetrius, in a reach of all reaches, but he is not even the BPA if that is something they go for...a DT/DE would probaly make better sense than a RB.

Your agrument about mr. williams "the first round reach" can be made for most defensive players as well. Should a team, any team, take a Bing in the first 50 when a very comparable player can be had in the 4-6th round? I say no. The Bengals need to take a maximum impact player in the first. A player who can step in and make plays, who is the BPA at 24, and one that addresses a serious weakness on the team. Williams is none of those. The D is so drastically poor, that unless a V. Davis or Marcedes is there at 24 we will grab D. Williams may go on to an excellent NFL career but it won;t be because he was a first round pick. He is a sleeper.

[schweinhart]

If there is one position that the saints have talent at, it is RB. They need a back up due to Duece's injuries but not in the first round. The Bengals three biggest needs are the three deepest positions in the draft (TE,S,DT)WR is the weakest position in the draft, probably the weakest WR draft I've ever seen. You are right about Williams rising up everbody's board but the only reason his stock is rising so much is because of the weak WR talent. Any other year,Williams is a third round draft pick. Broncos will not pick a RB in the first round, maybe in the second. Eric Winston's stock is declining really fast and Winston Justice's stock is rising so I'd have to disagree w/ that pick as well. There is no way Ngata makes it out of the top 15. White will be drafted before Maroney. I do agree w/ Tye Hill getting drafted in the top 15 but Moss going in the top 20 is a stretch. In my own opinion, this mock is a little jacked up but your guess is a good as mine. I can guarantee one thing, there will not be one mock draft that is anywhere close to being exactly right.

All good points....but

1. After Deuce, the only RB the Saints have under contract is Aaron Stecker. Both Antowain Smith and the A-Train are UFAs who aren't likely to be re-signed.

2. Eric Winston's stock is declining so rapidly that the last shot he's got to impress teams at the combine probably won't be enough to salvage his 1st round status. However, LT remains a premium position and Winston, despite all the reports otherwise, remains the most effective and mobile LT available in the 1st. No question that Winston Justice is an excellent tackle -- at RT where he played at USC -- and is poised to jump Winston because he certainly looks athletic enough to move to LT. But one thing about Justice that might stick in the back of teams minds is his suspension for pulling a toy gun on a student -- much more so than his time with a hooker. In this day and age of Sean Taylor and Chris Henry pointing guns at people, it might make a difference if Justice shows at the combine that the talent difference between him and Eric Winston is only marginal in Justice's favor.

3. Who goes first -- LenDale White or Laurence Maroney -- is most likely going to be settled at the combine. White was a beneficiary of a great offensive line, including two monstrous guards in Deuce Lutui and Fred Matua. How well LenDale can create his own running room at the next level should be the key question that teams are asking about White as he is evaluated. I happen to agree with an assessment that the former RB Robert Smith gave about White on ESPN -- that his footwork is not yet good enough to get him where he needs to be to find a crease when a hole is not there as planned. And to add about the Broncos not picking a RB in the 1st, I don't think they will unless White is still on the board. They wouldn't take Maroney because they have Tatum Bell to fill that need of a quicker, bounce out runner.

4. Wholelotta Nada....The potential is there but is the will? Recent history is against a DT going in the Top 10 and whether this is viewed as the talent at the position or the greater talent at other positions available is debatable. I think teams have seen enough low-impact NFL DTs get drafted high that the consensus is success at DT above all other positions is determined by will and an almost berserk intensity to win hand-to-hand battles. Does Ngata have that extra ingredient to go with his colossal size? I doubt it from what I've seen of him. In the last two drafts, Travis Johnson was the 1st DT off the board in 2005 at #16 as a 3-4 DE and Tommie Harris was the 1st off in 2004 at #14. The closest physical specimen comparable to Ngata in the last years was Vince Wilfork, who went at #21 in 2004.

5. I would have agreed that Sinorice Moss is a stretch in the Top 20 if I hadn't seen him do what he did at the combine. He was heads and shoulders above the rest of the pack. Besides his lack of size, Moss also suffered from the situation at Miami this year. But it looked clear to me that no WR in the draft offers a team more separation at WR or more breakaway threat whenever he catches the ball than Moss this year (after Holmes, that is).

6. The Bengals needs at S/TE/DT.....They can do no wrong regardless of where they pick to address these needs. Fortunately, S and TE are deep in this draft, and the Bengals are so weak at these positions save for Madieu that even Day 2 picks immediately upgrade the positions. DT is a position that I don't think Marvin Lewis will especially covet in round 1, especially later in the round like the pick is. If it is going to be a defensive pick in Round 1, my guess would be DE because the better talent should be there -- among maybe Mathias Kiwanuka, Tamba Hali, Darryl Tapp, and more OLB types in Kamerion Wimbley and Manny Lawson. But there's enough adequate talent at DE that it also can be addressed later in the first day.

7. Demetrius Williams: 3rd round talent in any other year? I don't know -- maybe -- but he looks incredibly sleek and nearly impossible to defend, especially on the deep outs that play a big part in the Bengals vertical driven offense. He should also feast off slants and digs because he'll separate well. Plus, he'll be a red zone machine. He's got a lot at stake at the combine.

[HoosierCat]

Good mock, schweiney. I like ones that go off in a bit of a different direction; reading the same, or virtually the same, mock on 800 different sites gets kinda old. Some thoughts:

I can see Vince Young to the Texans. I think they keep Carr around for a year, maybe even two, tho, because Young is going to need a lot of seasoning -- and even the I have my doubts.

I think the Saints would opt for Lienart over Bush.

Like some others I think you might have Tye Hill a bit high. OTOH I like your call of Bunkley going before Ngata. Bunkley keeps wafting up the draft boards, for no real reason I can fathom.

As for the big one: I think the Bengals will at least temporarily solve their WR problems by retaining Kwash. I think they pony up a couple hundred G's more to give him the mid-level tender, which would bring a 1st round pick in compensation if not matched. I don't see anyone forking over a first for him. That gives them time to work on developing Tab, and maybe a rook picked up later in the draft.

[TJJackson]

Can't see a WR in 1.

no way, no how.

Then again, there's two carry Perry......*sigh*

OK, OK, I'd rather see a WR in 1 than a QB or RB. Or OC.

[Whur CHad At?]

Yeah I like your top picks except for Bush going to NO. Won't see it happen. I think he will go #3.

[thepudgester]

Who drafts a #3 WR with the 24th pick in the draft? I still cannot share your opinion. i think if we lose both, WR will be a late Day One need, but not 1st Round....No Way.

[schweinhart]

Schweiny, you are really stretching it here. NO ONE drafts a guy like Bush to return kicks and punts. Too much money will be tied up in him to set him back there and be a kamikazee pilot. Does LT, Edge, or any other shake-n-bake RB run back anything???? Hells no. Don't tell me that because Michael Lewis, an undrafted beer truck driver is an UFA, is one your rationale's for having the Saints go for Bush. I don't think the Saints have a need for Reggie Bush. They may have a need for WR's and/or KR's....no GM is going to dump $20MM in a signing bouns and 8-10/yr for 5 years on a guys who;s gonna play in the slot, back-up Deuce and run back kicks...no way, not with the defensive talen right there, not with D'Brick and not with the chance to trade-down and pick up additional picks, that they sorely need. If they need another RB, WR or Kamikaee special teamer, then they can get them in FA or later in the draft.....

The rationale for using Bush as a return man -- especially punts -- had damn well better be part of the plans for whichever team drafts him. He's as electrifying as they come at it. It's definitely true that teams won't dump high 1st round money for a player who returns kicks or use a key starter for that but there are exceptions, namely Pacman Jones who was drafted 6th overall last year and returned kicks (41-1,127 yds) and punts (29-272 yds). Then there's Steve Smith who besides being the next best WR behind Chad also returns punts. As far as slot or split receiver (and out of the backfield), Bush could easily be expected to catch 50 balls this upcoming season regardeless who he plays for. But the back-up RB part would be the main thing that would compel the Saints to consider a trade down -- not picking Leinart with the 2nd pick. Why? Way too much value for Bush from other teams and not an overwhelming advantage in taking Leinart over another QB in the 2nd. Even so, Bush should get at least 150 carries as a RB for the Saints as the change of pace back, especially while the Saints bring back Deuce from his ACL. Whether or not a combined 270 touches for Bush would be enough for the Saints to pull the trigger at #2 when they've got a bunch of money about to be tied up in Deuce would be the primary question they face. If Young goes 1st, then the offers for Bush would likely determine what the Saints will do.

8. Huff would be great pick for the Bills, especially if they don't bid for Nate Clements. But Davis gives them a weapon they need where they need it most -- on offense. If you haven't watched him play, what he clocks and lifts might be enough to sway you into recognizing he is a Top 10 player, who is not only easily the best TE in the draft but also the most able to line up as a 3rd WR in the slot. Davis is the freak of this draft.

Bills need to repair their D. Davis is AWESOME but not even the BPA at 8. So, he would be a reach. THe Bills need to address their D.

Huff will be hard for the Bills to lay off of. I had him penciled in at 8 twice then scratched him out. Jauron is obviously defensive back minded and between Clements being a UFA and Troy Vincent one of the Bills safeties, Huff will look awfully good. But with the likely loss of Moulds, the Bills could be facing a total breakdown in their receiving game and Vernon Davis can just as easily play slot as he can be an all-downs TE, giving whichever dud QB the Bills decide to go with a primary target who can be expected to catch 5 or 6 balls a game.

Hill got cooked by Moss at the Senior Bowl. His talent may be there but reconciling his bad play at that game is not done by saying "but he's huge" or "but he runs a 4.18" or "he runs back kicks". He is a good 1st round CB but not near a top 10/11 pick. Maybe Top 15, more like top 25. Rams need tons of players, also another team who may trade down.

Hill got beat by Moss for a TD of about 30 yards because it looked like he thought he had help over top and started to jump the route when it looked like Moss might break it off. But saying Hill had "bad play" at the Senior Bowl is off. He definietly had "a bad play" on the Moss TD and that doesn't help him, but it won't hurt his stock among teams that are considering a cover CB because Hill is the best in the draft and cover CBs rather than zone CB usually skyrocket like Pacman and Carlos Rogers did last year. The Rams do need help all over the field, and I agree could trade down if they get an offer they can't refuse with a cluster of draft picks.

First off, Carpenter played in a 4-3 with the browneyes. He is not suited to a 3-4. Secondly, Bellichicks OLB's are savage pass rushers, and a guy like Lawson is the consumate rangy, speed freak who can get to the QB and mainatin his position/beat a block to make a play......in a 3-4, whihc is the Pat's scheme. Carpenter actually would be good in Cincy, to step in for B-Simmons.

Most college teams stick with 4-3. Secondly, Carpenter is completely suited for 3-4 at any of the LB positions....and also the 4-3. Behind Hawk, Carpenter is the most versatile LB in the draft. His combination of speed, power, size, run pursuit, coverage skills, and overall aggression will get him in the 1st round unlike Lawson, who will get there only if a team prizes his speed off the edge enough to either wait for him to fill out to play DE or develop pass coverage skills as an OLB.

Hello? Ever heard of Tatum Bell? One cut, power rusher? Cedric Cobbs, fomerly of Arkansas? Both are the ideal backs for Mr. Robots power rush game. There is no need in Denver for another RB. None. Nada. What they do have is a crappy WR corp that needs fresh talent. Rod Smith isn;t getting any younger and Lelie drops alot of balls and runs sloppy routes. Thye would do well to take your Demetrius, in a reach of all reaches, but he is not even the BPA if that is something they go for...a DT/DE would probaly make better sense than a RB.

Bell will get his share of touches but won't be relied on as the power RB. Actually, I remember Cobbs from college and had to look up what he's done in the pros, which was for a good reason since he's done nothing. Cobbs wasn't on a roster for the 2005 season and might not have even cracked a practice squad. But he'll get a shot as camp fodder with the Broncos. Even so, the Broncos will either trade for a power RB (Rickey Williams) or draft one (LenDale White if there in 1st or one like Mike Bell in Day 2). No question the Broncos are weak at WR, which is no doubt why ESPN's John Clayton is babbling his prediction that they will sign Terrell Owens. If not him, they'll get one elsewhere via free agency but if Demetrius is there with their 2nd pick in the 1st round, they'd be prime to take him.

Your agrument about mr. williams "the first round reach" can be made for most defensive players as well. Should a team, any team, take a Bing in the first 50 when a very comparable player can be had in the 4-6th round? I say no. The Bengals need to take a maximum impact player in the first. A player who can step in and make plays, who is the BPA at 24, and one that addresses a serious weakness on the team. Williams is none of those. The D is so drastically poor, that unless a V. Davis or Marcedes is there at 24 we will grab D. Williams may go on to an excellent NFL career but it won;t be because he was a first round pick. He is a sleeper.

Demetrius Williams may be a mainstream media sleeper, but the scouts are no doubt fully aware of him, much like they were of another WR who bears a good deal of resemblance to him -- Chad Johnson. I agree that the D is drastically poor. There is no room there but up regardless of where the Bengals pick positions on D. But given the uncertatinty at WR, this year looks to me like it's time to draft to a position of strength and keep the vertical game in tact as the team's primary threat.

[schweinhart]

Who drafts a #3 WR with the 24th pick in the draft? I still cannot share your opinion. i think if we lose both, WR will be a late Day One need, but not 1st Round....No Way.

Here's the best way to think of it that I can find, Pudge.

From GBNReport:

Building from strength: We almost always talk about using the draft to fix weaknesses; this may not always be necessarily the most efficient way to build a team however. In a nutshell, the problem with this approach is that if a team brings a strong player into a weak unit, opponents can quickly neutralize the impact of that player by double-teaming or playing away from them. If on the other hand a team drafts to its strength, it is possible to create a super unit that make all other units on the team better simply because opponents have to invest so much in stopping the good unit that the weaker ones are allowed considerable liberties.

[kingwilly]

good discussion!

[thepudgester]

Building from strength: We almost always talk about using the draft to fix weaknesses; this may not always be necessarily the most efficient way to build a team however. In a nutshell, the problem with this approach is that if a team brings a strong player into a weak unit, opponents can quickly neutralize the impact of that player by double-teaming or playing away from them. If on the other hand a team drafts to its strength, it is possible to create a super unit that make all other units on the team better simply because opponents have to invest so much in stopping the good unit that the weaker ones are allowed considerable liberties.

Ok, now why wouldn't we fix a bigger weakness with a better value? WR is a late Day One need at the worst, and I think I may even be stretching it a little. We need more talent at DT, S, and TE and more depth at CB and OG. WR would fall in the depth category, maybe ahead of both CB and OG if worst comes to worst.

[kingwilly]

Building from strength: We almost always talk about using the draft to fix weaknesses; this may not always be necessarily the most efficient way to build a team however. In a nutshell, the problem with this approach is that if a team brings a strong player into a weak unit, opponents can quickly neutralize the impact of that player by double-teaming or playing away from them. If on the other hand a team drafts to its strength, it is possible to create a super unit that make all other units on the team better simply because opponents have to invest so much in stopping the good unit that the weaker ones are allowed considerable liberties.

My comment to this would be that this approach is how teams get one-dimensional. Drafting to your strength only makes sense for some of the skill positions. Only 11 guys can get on the field at once. If this logic were true, we'd have taken a QB again last year. It only makes the position stonger, right?

For positions where there is quite a bit of substition or a symmetric position (CB, LB, D-Line, O-Line, WR) this may make some sense. The balance of this is that when a team has a consistent, glaring weakenss that is exploited (Run D..D in general) it cannot be overlloked by adhereing to this philosophy.

I think this approach makes sense for maybe the WR/RB/CB positions. Other than that, the criteria for drafting a player should go against the following idea: Take the Best Player Available that is Needed.

Offense:

Does Cincy need a RB? No. FB? No.

Does Cincy need a WR? Probably

Does Cincy need a TE? Y

Does Cincy need a QB? Maybe

Does Cincy need O-line? Not really

Does Cincy need a S? Yes, very much so.

Does Cincy need a DT? Probably

Does Cincy need a DE? Yes

Does Cincy need a CB? Yes

Does Cincy need a LB? Maybe.