HoosierCat Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 https://www.nfl.com/news/bengals-targeting-2023-offseason-for-qb-joe-burrow-s-contract-extension Will be interesting to see how this plays out vs. Lamar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gregcook68 Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 Burrow said he wants to retire here, Chase and Karras want to stay as well! Do you think Burrow will consider a Brady-like approach with his contract? With the cap can the keep Burrow, Chase and Higgins without it? Realistically? Do you think MB will let Katie handle contracts this year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyBengal Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 Karras signed a 3 year deal for 18 million, so we are good there for a little bit. He will be 31 when the deal is up. Doesn't look problematic. I think Burrow has made comments about his new deal already. I know Mike Brown has chimed in about wanting him to be here forever and the need to keep the team together. While I don't think we will get some ridiculous low ball offer, I don't think he's going to be offered a fully guaranteed contract either. I don't worry about it though, because regardless of what people think, the Bengals have paid players that have been deserving in the past. I do not expect Burrow to be heartbroken by the number he sees on an offer. I think the Bengals can keep Burrow, Chase and Higgins, but it will take some work. We won't be seeing high end free agent deals in the near future though and that's ok. Katie has handled most of the contracts for quite some time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMPHAR Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 I hope they can get this done quickly so they know the cap implications of the next few years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyBengal Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 They have work to do considering all the other free agents they are looking at after the season ends. As they always say, you can't pay everyone. Guys that are starters or contributors heading into UFA: Bates- He's not back at his price point and we have Dax Bell- He's 28 and coming off a 3 year, 18 million deal. Should fit. Hurst- How much does he want? With both him and Sample hitting FA, we are drafting TE anyway. Pratt- They need to bring him back, period. He's a high priority in my personal opinion. Apple- Can I help pack your bags? Awuzie will be back, CTB is playing well and we will be drafting CB. Perrine- He's 27 coming off a 2 year, 3 million deal. I want him back. Earned another deal and pass blocks well. Scharping- I love the fact we had this guy for depth. Such a good pick up. If we can bring him back with a backup contract, do it. Sample- I really don't know what to think about Sample. Flowers- I don't think he will cost much to bring back if they so desire. Allen- If they just have to have Allen back, they can probably make that happen. and more Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJJackson Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 I am hoping Hurst, who says he is finally being used correctly here, will take a discount to stay. I'd rather not spend a high draft pick on a TE....we need pass rush and pass blockers instead I hate how Apple runs his mouth but if he will take CB4 money with incentives, I'd like him to stay Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COB Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 hour ago, ArmyBengal said: They have work to do considering all the other free agents they are looking at after the season ends. As they always say, you can't pay everyone. Guys that are starters or contributors heading into UFA: Bates- He's not back at his price point and we have Dax Bell- He's 28 and coming off a 3 year, 18 million deal. Should fit. Hurst- How much does he want? With both him and Sample hitting FA, we are drafting TE anyway. Pratt- They need to bring him back, period. He's a high priority in my personal opinion. Apple- Can I help pack your bags? Awuzie will be back, CTB is playing well and we will be drafting CB. Perrine- He's 27 coming off a 2 year, 3 million deal. I want him back. Earned another deal and pass blocks well. Scharping- I love the fact we had this guy for depth. Such a good pick up. If we can bring him back with a backup contract, do it. Sample- I really don't know what to think about Sample. Flowers- I don't think he will cost much to bring back if they so desire. Allen- If they just have to have Allen back, they can probably make that happen. and more I kind of want them all back. Most difficult, in my opinion, will be Pratt. He’s damn good and his agent will get a ton of calls with what I think will be top five for his position type money. Could be tough. Burrow - if he’ll take a team friendly deal that allows us to keep good players around him, then guarantee it all. I’d give him ten years guaranteed. If it’s that versus higher cap hit but not guaranteed, go with the lower cap hit and guarantee it. In no way is he a risk like Watson was. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJJackson Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 If we look at this from a production vs pay standpoint, the one I start to look at is Boyd and I love Boyd. I really do. but he's a three (a really good 3) or maybe even a 4 if you consider Hurst right now, with production that is starting to fall off, and a 10.3M cap hit in 2023 (final year of his contract) so many good players I really like on this team. as has been said, cant keepem all hard decisions ahead Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierCat Posted January 26, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 Some numbers to ponder: For 2023, the Bengals are currently about $50 million under the cap. Burrow already counts $11.5 million versus the 2023 cap, virtually all of which is guaranteed. For 2024, the Bengals are currently $140 million under the cap. If they were to pick up Burrow’s 5th year option, which they will obviously do, that would be approximately $30.4 million, fully guaranteed. For 2025, the furthest OTC goes out, the Bengals are currently $249 million under the cap. So for the next two seasons, Burrow is already set to receive about $42 million. All but about $400k off that would be fully guaranteed. Estimates on Joe’s extension are in the $50 million/year range. Under a traditional deal at least half of that would be guaranteed. Given they are already committed to giving him north of $20 million annually guaranteed in 23 and 24, those number look doable. I don’t know where things go if Joe wants a Watson style fully guaranteed deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMPHAR Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 Pratt will be price dependent. He played less than 70% of snaps. There's probably a team with cap room willing to overpay and the Bengals aren't or shouldn't match considering they only played him less than 70% of snaps. Logan Wilson that plays 92% of snaps will be their priority. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJJackson Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 The number under the cap is always a bit misleading to me, as the number largely depends on expired contracts, meaning yeah, you're not paying player x, but you will have to pay someone to play that spot. So you really dont have 50M (or whatever number) available to go get upgrades - you have to spend a large part of that just to stay even to where you are (or were). A good example is Pratt. You have to fill Pratt's spot. Hopefully with Pratt :-), but he's expressed some dissatisfaction lately so I expect he is leaving. You probably wont be able to sign an equivalent, but you still need to spend 3-7M of that 50 on the replacement, even understanding said replacement probably wont be as good as Pratt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gregcook68 Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 Sidebar, so to speak, at the money these guys make I truly GET and AGREE with Brady’s philosophy and I think it is quite a smart move, keeping a good group around him for those years! For me, the way Brady’s smug-like personality/ego is, I never thought he’d be the one to choose the contract philosophy he did!? Also, I have to say, on one hand, I’m surprised that more players haven’t followed suit with Brady’s philosophy, especially seeing how beneficial it’s been for him! On the other hand I can see, not understand, but see how these run away egos are prevalent for all the other prima donnas. I can remember, back in the day, when football AND baseball players had to have other jobs in the off season to make ends meet! I don’t agree with that end of the perspective but it’s gone from one end of the spectrum to another! Burrow has said that he currently lives on his endorsements and banks his checks, so he may just surprise everyone and take the Brady approach to stay in Cincy and let Katie orchestrate a team around him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyBengal Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 So I was a little curious and took a look at the highest paid QB's in the league. I was going to look at the top 5, but the 6th included Mahomes which I thought was an interesting comparison. Age in parenthesis and Burrow just turned 26 for comparison. Watson (27)- 5 yr deal in '22- 55m per yr- At signing 230m- Cap hit stays the same Stafford (34)- 4yr deal in '22- 63m per yr- At signing 63m- Cap hit goes up a little across contract Wilson (34)- 5yr deal in '22- 48.5m per yr- At signing 124m- Cap hit goes up a little across contract Allen (26)- 6yr deal in '21- 43m per yr- At signing 100m- Cap hit goes up a little across contract Rodgers (39)- 3yr deal in '22- 50m per yr- At signing 101m- Cap hit goes up more across contract Mahomes (27)- 10yr deal in '22- 63m per yr- At signing 63m- Cap hit goes up more across contract I found it interesting how some of these were put together and I guess you could argue many different angles. There is far more than I can understand with all types of guarantees and bonuses, but the cap hit seems very important to the organization. I can see some advantage to keeping the cap hit the same, like the Watson deal, but that is risky as hell for a team to guarantee everything. Something along the lines of what Allen got, but obviously more money involved for Burrow in 2023. North of 50m per year (which has been mentioned) obviously places him in the top 5 paid QB's in the league. Conversely, I don't know what the hell Bills fans and coaches are bitching about regarding paying players when you have Allen's contract either. Anyway, something to consider... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierCat Posted January 27, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 Re the guarantees, I thought Mahomes deal was interesting. https://overthecap.com/player/patrick-mahomes/5594 If you read the contract notes, it’s basically a series of annual guarantees of a future year. So, like, in 2023 all the 2025 money is guaranteed. In 2024 all the 2026 money is guaranteed, etc. I can see the Bengals doing something like that. Also notable is the % of the cap column. A number like 50 large a year sounds insane, but projections of cap growth mean it’s quite manageable from a cap perspective moving forward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyBengal Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 Yes, the cap growth is what makes a guaranteed contract interesting as well. The cap hit stays the same year after year while the cap continues to grow. Mahomes is interesting that way for sure and it's a 10 year deal. Nice for them to not have to worry about that for a while. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMPHAR Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 Bengals could also front load. That was the path they took with Dalton. Although Dalton will never reach the stature of Burrow at the time his 6 year $115m extension was a major deal. I know there were some incentives involved, but he got like 20% of that contract in the first 6 months of signing. Dalton's cap hit was about 15% of their cap room at the time. I don't think it ever got over 20% mostly because of the front loading. That paved away for the Bengals do things like retain Atkins, Dunlap then catch MJ on the rebound from Tampa. Something people thought they'd never be able to do. As I have said many times the National Media or rival fan bases have failed to recognized the fact the Bengals front office built best in league rosters (2012-2015) prior to Burrow. They instead elect to view the Bengals as the 90s bengals using Marvin/Dalton's lack of post season success at an excuses. So here they are after a majority of the football world projected failure for Burrow/Bengals; Bengals have a top of league roster again and now are getting post season success. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gregcook68 Posted January 29, 2023 Report Share Posted January 29, 2023 Looks like I’m not the only one who thinks maybe Burrow might go Brady like contractually! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierCat Posted February 2, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2023 CBS (emphasis added): Quote According to CBS Sports NFL Insider Jonathan Jones, Burrow and the Bengals are preparing for a monster contract extension. The former No. 1 overall pick is in line to become the highest-paid quarterback in the league in terms of AAV. According to Over The Cap, Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers is the highest-paid quarterback in terms of AAV with $50.27M. Jones reports this extension likely won't be a fully guaranteed deal like Watson received from the Cleveland Browns. He says to look for a more traditional deal. Good news. https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/ten-nfl-players-who-have-earned-big-paydays-this-offseason-joe-burrow-and-nick-bosa-poised-to-set-market/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyBengal Posted February 2, 2023 Report Share Posted February 2, 2023 So much for a "reasonable" contract, allowing the team to continue building the way they have to maintain the success. "Monster contract extension" is going to have massive ripples for them in my opinion. I'm not mad about resigning Burrow in the least. Just the opposite. I'm fucking stoked to know he's going to be around a while. However, I am concerned what that means for the team's ability to sign our other free agents that have been huge for the team. They are really going to have to hit on draft picks more as I see it. I don't see the Reader and Hendrickson contracts in FA soon. That and make better decisions on which players they continue to pay top dollar. Yes, I'm looking at you Mixon. They have always been loyal to a fault and really wish they would stop paying guys 10 million a year when not worth it. I would bet resetting the QB market for Burrow will equal no more Higgins. That makes me very sad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMPHAR Posted February 2, 2023 Report Share Posted February 2, 2023 31 minutes ago, ArmyBengal said: So much for a "reasonable" contract, allowing the team to continue building the way they have to maintain the success. "Monster contract extension" is going to have massive ripples for them in my opinion. I'm not mad about resigning Burrow in the least. Just the opposite. I'm fucking stoked to know he's going to be around a while. However, I am concerned what that means for the team's ability to sign our other free agents that have been huge for the team. They are really going to have to hit on draft picks more as I see it. I don't see the Reader and Hendrickson contracts in FA soon. That and make better decisions on which players they continue to pay top dollar. Yes, I'm looking at you Mixon. They have always been loyal to a fault and really wish they would stop paying guys 10 million a year when not worth it. I would bet resetting the QB market for Burrow will equal no more Higgins. That makes me very sad. It depends on how it gets structured. If it follows the structure of Mahomes and Murray; Joe will have 2 years of low cap hits with growth in year 3 and 4. Right now the cap is $224 and most think $18m to $20m annual growth will be achieved on a path to $300m. They are looking at a cap of $260-$285 by the time those year 3/4 hits kick in. Which means his deal is probably taking up the same percentage amount as Dalton's deal did. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJJackson Posted February 2, 2023 Report Share Posted February 2, 2023 Players who want to win know they need to leave money on the table so that other good players can also be retained/signed One can claim they want to stay and they want to win, but in the end the contract demands tell the real tale Bates decided he was a money guy, even while claiming he wants to stay. Sad, but so be it. I will always love the guy for what he did for us, but no tears as he walks Burrow still has to show me if he is a win guy or a money guy. I guess we will come to learn which he is over the coming months Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierCat Posted February 2, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2023 2 hours ago, AMPHAR said: It depends on how it gets structured. If it follows the structure of Mahomes and Murray; Joe will have 2 years of low cap hits with growth in year 3 and 4. Right now the cap is $224 and most think $18m to $20m annual growth will be achieved on a path to $300m. They are looking at a cap of $260-$285 by the time those year 3/4 hits kick in. Which means his deal is probably taking up the same percentage amount as Dalton's deal did. Yup, this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMPHAR Posted February 2, 2023 Report Share Posted February 2, 2023 A On 1/27/2023 at 11:53 AM, HoosierCat said: Re the guarantees, I thought Mahomes deal was interesting. https://overthecap.com/player/patrick-mahomes/5594 If you read the contract notes, it’s basically a series of annual guarantees of a future year. So, like, in 2023 all the 2025 money is guaranteed. In 2024 all the 2026 money is guaranteed, etc. I can see the Bengals doing something like that. Also notable is the % of the cap column. A number like 50 large a year sounds insane, but projections of cap growth mean it’s quite manageable from a cap perspective moving forward. I could see that because I sure the lessens the amount of money the Brown family has to set aside to cover the guarantees. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COB Posted February 2, 2023 Report Share Posted February 2, 2023 2 hours ago, TJJackson said: Players who want to win know they need to leave money on the table so that other good players can also be retained/signed One can claim they want to stay and they want to win, but in the end the contract demands tell the real tale Bates decided he was a money guy, even while claiming he wants to stay. Sad, but so be it. I will always love the guy for what he did for us, but no tears as he walks Burrow still has to show me if he is a win guy or a money guy. I guess we will come to learn which he is over the coming months I don’t know if I’d call it leaving money on the table. Asking a guy like Bates to forfeit like 4 million a year or something isn’t realistic, and doesn’t really happen. The union would shit if guys started doing that. There are ways of keeping guys around. Sometimes it’s just getting into neighborhood, money wise. Also extending guys a year or even two before they hit FA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierCat Posted February 3, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2023 4 hours ago, AMPHAR said: A I could see that because I sure the lessens the amount of money the Brown family has to set aside to cover the guarantees. I saw one report a couple days ago noting that Mike has spoken approvingly of the rolling guarantees as an idea they may use. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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